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A description of the key supply side drivers that will shape the future of tourism to New Zealand by 2050. Part of the www.tourism2050.com project
Citation preview
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The New Third World: Economic structures
Tourism Supply
Husbandry: Power, Resources
& Regulations
Economic Tectonics: Have’s and Have not’s
Product Clusters Proprietorship: Structures of engagement
Wall Street & Hollywood: Short termism and profit
Connectivity to the World
Speed of change: The impact and
distribution of science and technology
applications
Competition for Labour
Sustainable Structures & Expectations
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Economic Tectonics:Have’s and Have Not’s
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6%7%8%9%
10%11%12%13%14%
WACC by Sector (Sept 2009)PWC Cost of Capital Report
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Fin
anci
al Y
ield
%
Financial Yield vs Investor Yield. Economic Sustainability Benchmarks for NZ Hospitality Divisions 1999-2003
Tourism & Leisure WACC
Base Lending Rate
Mortgage Rate
Risk Free Rate
Economic Tectonics:Have’s and Have Not’s
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Husbandry: Power, Resources & Regulations
“A middle aged female professional from Germany imagined New Zealand as the last natural country in the world”.
“People’s generalised fear of environment destruction created the important
socio-cultural frame for New Zealand to create the global appeal as a tourist
Destination” (Ateljevic, 2001).
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Husbandry: Power, Resources & Regulations
“Gradually raising the cost of carbon, which Congress but not the EPA can do, would send signals throughout the economy that would help shift the nation to fuels and practices that wouldn't warm the planet. Research into such fuels and practices would become attractive to investors, and new technologies would emerge. Efficiency would become cost-effective. The government would set the goal, but the market, science and common sense would dictate how the country reached it.”
Government power does not extend beyond goal setting!
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Sustainable Structures and Expectations
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Sustainable Structures and Expectations
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Connectivity to the World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Aviation Technology: Future Efficiency
Historical 15% p.a. 50% acceleration 50% Deceleration
For Airports of 21stCentury, market is not defined by distance, but
accessibility!Accessibility = Time + Money + Reliability
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Connectivity to the World
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Speed of Change:
“It is the first step in sociological wisdom, to recognise that the major advances in civilisation are processes that all but wreck the societies in which they occur” [1]
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Speed of Change:
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Wall St and Hollywood:Short-termism & profit
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Wall St and Hollywood:Short-termism & profit
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Product Clusters
International Flows 2010f
Domestic Overnight Flows 2010f
In 2009, visitors stay for median time of 10 days, see an average of 3 regions and engage in 7 activities.
International Visitor product corridors are highly biased towards four centres, Domestic overnight stays reflect a VFR bias towards the 4 main centres.
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Product Clusters
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Proprietorship
“Central government received $613 million more in revenue than it would have had tourism not exist in the economy. On the other hand, it expended $184 million in the various activities it supports relating to the tourism industry. This provides a Net Financial Benefit to central government from tourism of $429 million”. [1]
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Proprietorship
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Competition for LabourLabour Dynamics
Future skills / knowledge required Accommodation Food and Beverage
Transport Activities
and Attractions
Computer / IT / software skills
Financial management
Management / planning skills
Business analysis / development
HR / people / group management
Quality control
Understanding of cultural diversity
Diversified language skills
Relevant product knowledge
Selling / up-selling skills
Sustainability knowledge / awareness
Awareness of compliance requirements
Future Tourism Product Skills
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Competition for Labour