New UNIVERSITI PUTRA MALAYSIA ASSESSMENT OF …psasir.upm.edu.my/47982/1/FK 2014 30R.pdf · 2016. 7. 4. · universiti putra malaysia aminreza neshat fk 2014 30 assessment of groundwater

UNIVERSITI PUTRA MALAYSIA

AMINREZA NESHAT

FK 2014 30

ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER VULNERABILITY AND NITRATE CONTAMINATION RISK USING GIS-BASED DRASTIC MODEL WITH

HYBRID STATISTICAL AND PROBABILISTIC TECHNIQUES

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ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER VULNERABILITY AND NITRATE

CONTAMINATION RISK USING GIS-BASED DRASTIC MODEL WITH


By

AMINREZA NESHAT

Thesis Submitted to the School of Graduate Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia

in Fulfillment of the Requirements for Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

AUGUST 2014

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COPYRIGHT

All material contained within the thesis, including without limitation text, logos, icons,

photographs and all other artwork, is copyright material of Universiti Putra Malaysia

unless otherwise stated. Use may be made of any material contained within the thesis for

non-commercial purposes from the copyright holder. Commercial use of material may

only be made with the express, prior, written permission of Universiti Putra Malaysia.

Copyright © Universiti Putra Malaysia

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To my father

and

To the spirit of my lovely mother

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Abstract of the thesis presented to the Senate of Universiti Putra Malaysia in fulfillment

of the requirement for the Degree of Doctor of philosophy

ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER VULNERABILITY AND NITRATE

CONTAMINATION RISK USING GIS-BASED DRASTIC MODEL WITH


By

AMINREZA NESHAT

August 2014

Chairman: Assoc. Prof. Biswajeet Pradhan, PhD

Faculty: Engineering

Groundwater pollution is one of the most significant environmental problems today. It

is caused by human activities, especially agricultural activities. Agricultural systems

developed from traditional methods to modern applications, resulting in an overuse of

chemical fertilizers that increase the amount of pollutants. Fertilizers such as nitrates

play a significant role in water and soil pollution because of their special

characteristics. Most of these fertilizers enter the groundwater through surplus water

and create high-risk groundwater resources. Therefore, identifying and diagnosing the

amount of pollutants using a groundwater risk map in the future can largely prevent

more pollution in groundwater resources. Efficient preventive programs, such as risk

management, should be implemented to reduce the risks of groundwater pollution.

In this research, the DRASTIC approach based on a geographic information system

(GIS) was applied to evaluate groundwater vulnerability in Kerman Plain (Iran), an

arid and semi-arid region that encounters intensive agricultural activities and over

exploitation of land that has resulted in groundwater contamination. DRASTIC model

includes seven parameters of depth to water (D), net recharge (R), aquifer media (A),

soil media (S), topography (T), impact of vadose zone (I), and hydraulic conductivity

(C) of the Kerman Plain. The original DRASTIC model was applied and integrated

using original rates and weights. The generation of groundwater vulnerability map was

performed by optimizing the rates and weights of DRASTIC model using GIS

modeling techniques. The models used were analytical hierarchy process (AHP),

single parameter sensitivity analysis (SPSA), frequency ratio (FR), and Wilcoxon non-

parametric model. The optimized rates and weights were computed using each model.

The Wilcoxon non-parametric test and FR analysis were applied to optimize the rates

of DRASTIC model. AHP method was also used to optimize both the rates and the

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weights of DRASTIC model, and sensitivity analysis was conducted to optimize only

the weights of DRASTIC model. These methods were assigned to DRASTIC model

and integrated to produce hybrid methods. So far, some of the generated hybrid

methods using the abovementioned models have not been applied in other studies.

The most proper optimization of the vulnerability map was determined using Pearson’s

coefficient correlation. The Pearson’s correlation value of each modified DRASTIC

model used in this study was calculated. The regression coefficients showed the

relationship between each vulnerability index and the nitrate concentration. The

regression coefficient of DRASTIC model indicated a correlation of 0.37. The

combination of Wilcoxon non-parametric test for rates and the sensitivity analysis for

weights revealed the highest correlation of 0.87 among all applied hybrid models

The most appropriate groundwater vulnerability map with the highest validity and

accuracy was selected and combined with the nitrate pollution map that indicates the

amount of damage in the Kerman Plain. Then, Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) was

applied to develop a new methodology for assessing pollution risk. DST method

provides a major advantage by dealing with the varying levels of precision related to

information and the more generalized form of probability theory. The combination of

the damage map and the pollution occurrence probability map through DST method

produces a novel method that can determine the groundwater risk map for the nitrate

parameter.

The application of risk assessment method is recommended if the objective is to

develop a risk map of areas that are vulnerable to pollution. Aside from nitrate, other

pollutants can also be identified in other regions. Therefore, analyses are urged to

search for other factors that lead to the pollution of groundwater resources.

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Abstrak thesis yang dikemukakan kepada Senat Universiti Putra Malaysia sebagai

memenuhi keperluan untuk ijazah Doktor Falsafah

PENILAIAN DAN AIR BAWAH TANAH KELEMAHAN NITRAT RISIKO

PENCEMARAN MENGGUNAKAN GIS BERASASKAN MODEL HIBRID

DRASTIK DENGAN TEKNIK STATISTIK DAN KEBARANGKALIAN

Oleh

AMINREZA NESHAT

Ogos 2014

Pengerusi: Prof. Madya. Biswajeet Pradhan, PhD

Fakulti: Kejuruteraan

Salah satu daripada kerosakan yang paling signifikasn terhadap alam sekitar pada masa

kini adalah pencemaran air bawah tanah yang disebabkan oleh aktiviti manusia

terutamanya aktiviti pertanian. Aktiviti pertanian telah dimajukan dari kaedah

tradisional hingga ke kaedah moden; baja kimia yang berlebihan juga mengakibatkan

peningkatan jumlah bahan pencemar. Malah, sesetengah baja yang mempunyai ciri-

ciri yang unik seperti nitrat mengakibatkan pencemaran air dan tanah. Kebanyakan

baja-baja ini memasuki air bawah tanah melalui air yang berlebihan dan ini

mewujudkan risiko terhadap sumber air bawah tanah. Oleh itu, mengenal pasti dan

diagnosis terhadap jumlah bahan pencemar yang terdapat di dalam air bawah tanah

dengan peta tanah yang menunjukkan risiko boleh mengurangkan pencemaran sumber

air bawah tanah. Oleh itu, program-program pencegahan yang cekap seperti

pengurusan risiko perlu dilaksanakan untuk menandingi pencemaran air bawah tanah.

Dalam kajian ini, pendekatan DRASTIC yang berdasarkan sistem maklumat geografi

(GIS) telah digunakan untuk menilai kelemahan air bawah tanah di dataran Kerman

(Iran), yang merupakan sebuah kawasan gersang dan separa gersang yang menghadapi

pencemaran air bawah tanah yang disebabkan aktiviti pertanian yang secara intensif

serta pengeksploitasi tanah yang berlebihan. Model DRASTIC dijalankan di dataran

Kerman merangkumi tujuh parameter iaitu kedalaman air (D), aliran masuk bersih (R),

media akuifer (A), media tanah (S), topografi (T), kesan zon vadose (I) dan

konduktiviti hidraulik (C). Model DRASTIC asal telah digunakan dan bersepadu

dengan menggunakan kadar dan pem berat asal. Peta kelemahan generasi air bawah

tanah juga dilakukan dengan mengoptimumkan kadar dan berat model DRASTIC

dengan menggunakan teknik-teknik pemodelan GIS. Model-model yang digunakan

ialah Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Single Parameter Sensitivity Analysis

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(SPSA), Frequency Ratio (FR) and Wilcoxon non-parametric model. Kadar optimum

dan pem berat telah dikira dengan menggunakan setiap model masing-masing.

Wilcoxon bukan parametrik dan kekerapan nisbah telah digunakan untuk

mengoptimumkan kadar model DRASTIC. Kaedah AHP juga digunakan untuk

mengoptimumkan kadar dan pem berat model DRASTIC. Analisis sensitiviti

digunakan untuk mengoptimumkan hanya pem berat model DRASTIC. kaedah telah

ditugaskan kepada model DRASTIC dan disepadukan untuk menghasilkan kaedah-

kaedah hibrid. Sesetengah kaedah-kaedah hibrid yang digenerasikan dengan

menggunakan model-model yang ternyata di atas masih belum diaplikasikan oleh

kajian-kajian yang lain setakat ini.

Seterusnya, pengoptimuman yang paling baik terhadap peta kelemahan tanah

ditentukan dengan menggunakan Pearson’s coefficient correlation. Setiap nilai

korelasi Pearson dari model DRASTIC yang telah diubahsuai dalam kajian ini telah

dikira. Pekali regresi menunjukkan hubungan antara setiap indeks kelemahan dan

kepekatan nitrat. Pekali regresi model DRASTIC menunjukkan korelasi 0.37 dan

gabungan Wilcoxon bukan parametrik untuk kadar dan analisis kepekaan terhadap

berat menunjukkan korelasi yang paling tinggi iaitu 0.87 di kalangan semua model

hibrid yang digunakan.

Akhir sekali, peta kelemahan air bawah tanah yang paling sesuai dengan kesahan dan

ketepatan yang paling tinggi telah dipilih dan digabungkan dengan peta pencemaran

nitrat untuk menunjukkan jumlah kerosakan di dataran Kerman. Kemudian, teori

Dempster-Shafer (DST) telah digunakan untuk membangunkan satu kaedah yang baru

untuk menilai risiko pencemaran. Kaedah DST dapat berurusan dengan pelbagai

peringkat ketepatan yang berkaitan dengan maklumat serta bentuk teori

kebarangkalian yang lebih umum. Gabungan peta kerosakan dan peta kebarangkalian

kejadian pencemaran dengan kaedah DST menghasilkan kaedah novel yang boleh

menentukan peta risiko air bawah tanah bagi parameter nitrat.

Aplikasi kaedah penilaian risiko adalah disyorkan jika objektif kajian adalah untuk

membangunkan peta berisiko di kawasan-kawasan yang terdedah kepada pencemaran.

Tambahan pula, bahan pencemar yang lain juga boleh dikenal pasti di kawasan-

kawasan lain selain daripada nitrat. Oleh itu, penganalisis digesa supaya mencari

faktor-faktor lain yang membawa pencemaran kepada sumber air bawah tanah.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

IN THE NAME OF ALLAH

Praise and thanks are due to Allah who gave me strength and determination to

complete my study. This study would never have materialized without the contribution

of many individuals and organizations to whom I have the pleasure of expressing my

appreciation and gratitude.

I gratefully acknowledge my gratitude to my supervisor, Prof. Dr Biswajeet Pradhan

and thank him for his inspiring guidance and valuable support especially during the

last year of the research period. I appreciate him for his critical reading and comments

on the drafts of different chapters and the adjusting his schedule. His never-ending

support, excellent guidance and outstanding advice accompanied me through the

whole period of my Ph.D. I heartedly appreciate his professional view on research

issues, critical comments, intellectual opinion, and the way he put them in simple and

straightforward argument and suggestion. Unfortunately, words fall short when I try

to reciprocate honestly to all that he has done for me. I respectfully acknowledge the

scientific and moral support received from you and the most importantly for being a

great teacher, friend and guide for me. Thanks are also extended to my committee

members who honored me by accepting to be in my supervising committee Dr. Helmi

Zulhaidi Mohd Shafri, Dr Ahmad Rodzi Bin Mahmud and Prof. Dr. Mohammad

Rahnama.

I am also gratefully indebted to Visiting Professor of University of Victoria (Canada)

Prof. Dr. Mohammad Rahnama for his invaluable contribution, support, guidance and

encouragement through the duration of my research, but I would especially like to

thank him for being such a great friend.

My special thanks go to my previous supervisor Dr. Saied Pirasteh for supporting and

encouraging me during supervising my work. My appreciation will be incomplete

without mentioning the other Geospatial Information Science Research Center

(GISRC) members Prof. Dr. Shattri Bin Mansor and Dr. Rashid Shariff during my PhD

degree.

I am also grateful to my dear friends, especially Haleh Nampak, Mohesen Dadras and

Dr Saman Javadi for their support and inspiration in times of need.

My family has always been there for me spiritually, emotionally, psychologically, and

financially when needed. Nothing can really express my feelings and gratitude towards

my lovely parent for the values they have given me. They have taught me to never be

afraid of the truth and openly express my thoughts and feelings.

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There are no proper words to convey my deepest gratitude and respect for my father.

I will never forget how difficult it was for him to accept my decision to leave Iran for

continuing education but he never complained. He always advise and guide me for

having better life.

A special note of thanks and a profound gratitude to my brother and sisters who

tolerated my absence for a long time. They have been a constant source of sacrifice,

encouragement, prayer, good wishes and support throughout my life. My eldest brother

Alireza who is my heroic figure when I was weak and vulnerable. Also, I had many

difficulty during data collection for my research work and my brother was the one who

made it easier for me by his constant support. Many thanks go to my lovely sisters

Mandana and Parisa who never let me feel alone. They are the people who always

accompanied me through the whole of my life.

Last but certainly not least, to my lovely mother who is not here with us to see the

completion of my dissertation. But I am sure she is somewhere out there always

watching me closely.

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I certify that a Thesis Examination Committee has met on (28 August 2014) to conduct

the final examination of Aminreza Neshat on his thesis entitled " ASSESSMENT OF

GROUNDWATER VULNERABILITY AND NITRATE CONTAMINATION RISK

USING GIS-BASED DRASTIC MODEL WITH HYBRID STATISTICAL AND

PROBABILISTIC TECHNIQUES " in accordance with the Universities and

University Colleges Act 1971 and the Constitution of the Universiti Putra Malaysia

[P.U.(A) 106] 15 March 1998. The Committee recommends that the student be

awarded the Doctor of Philosophy.

Members of the Thesis Examination Committee were as follows:

Abdul Rahman Ramli, PhD

Associate Professor

Faculty of Engineering

Universiti Putra Malaysia

(Chairman)

Shattri b Mansor, PhD

Professor



(Internal Examiner)

Mohd Amin b Mohd Soom, PhD

Professor



(Internal Examiner)

Shiuan Wan, PhD

Professor

Ling Tung University

Taiwan

(External Examiner)

NORITAH OMAR, PhD

Associate Professor and Deputy Dean

School of Graduate Studies


Date: 19 September 2014

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This thesis submitted to the Senate of Universiti Putra Malaysia has been accepted as

fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. The members of the

Supervisory Committee are as follows:

Biswajeet Pradhan, PhD

Associate Professor



(Chairman)

Helmi Z.M. Shafri, PhD

Associate Professor



(Member)

Ahmad Rodzi Bin Mahmud, PhD

Associate Professor



(Member)

Mohammad Rahnama, PhD

Professor


Shahid-Bahonar University of Kerman

(Member)

BUJANG BIN KIM HUAT, PhD

Professor and Dean

School of Graduate Studies


Date:

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Declaration by graduate student

I hereby confirm that:

this thesis is my original work; quotations, illustrations and citations have been duly referenced; this thesis has not been submitted previously or concurrently for any other

degree at any other institutions;

intellectual property from the thesis and copyright of thesis are fully-owned by Universiti Putra Malaysia, as according to the Universiti Putra Malaysia

(Research) Rules 2012;

written permission must be obtained from supervisor and the office of Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research and Innovation) before thesis is published (in the

form of written, printed or in electronic form) including books, journals,

modules, proceedings, popular writings, seminar papers, manuscripts,

posters, reports, lecture notes, learning modules or any other materials as

stated in the Universiti Putra Malaysia (Research) Rules 2012;

there is no plagiarism or data falsification/fabrication in the thesis, and scholarly integrity is upheld as according to the Universiti Putra Malaysia

(Graduate Studies) Rules 2003 (Revision 2012-2013) and the Universiti Putra

Malaysia (Research) Rules 2012. The thesis has undergone plagiarism

detection software.

Signature: _______________________ Date: __________________

Name and Matric No.: _________________________________________

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Declaration by Members of Supervisory Committee

This is to confirm that:

the research conducted and the writing of this thesis was under our supervision; supervision responsibilities as stated in the Universiti Putra Malaysia (Graduate

Studies) Rules 2003 (Revision 2012-2013) are adhered to.

Signature: __________________

Name of

Chairman of

Supervisory

Committee: __________________

Signature: __________________

Name of

Member of

Supervisory

Committee: __________________

Signature: __________________

Name of

Member of

Supervisory

Committee: __________________

Signature: __________________

Name of

Member of

Supervisory

Committee: __________________

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

ABSTRACT iv

ABSTRAK vi

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS viii

APPROVAL x

DECLARATION xii

LIST OF TABLES xviii

LIST OF FIGURES xix

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xxiii

CHAPTER

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Problem statement 3

1.3 Objectives 4

1.4 Research questions 5

1.5 Hypothesis 6

1.6 Scope of the study 6

1.7 Significant contribution to new knowledge 6

1.8 Thesis organization 7

2 LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction 9

2.2 Definition 10

2.2.1 Groundwater 10

2.2.2 Groundwater vulnerability to pollution 11

2.2.3 Geographic Information System (GIS) 13

2.2.4 Nitrate 13

2.2.5 Interpolation 14

2.2.6 Uncertainty 14

2.2.7 Risk assessment 14

2.3 The role of groundwater in arid and semi-arid 15

2.4 GIS approaches to groundwater vulnerability evaluation 15

2.4.1 Index and Overlay Methods 17

2.4.1.1 DRASTIC model 18

2.4.2 Multi Criteria Decision Method 20

2.4.2.1 Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) 21

2.4.3 Statistical Methods 22

2.4.3.1 Wilcoxon rank-sum nonparametric

statistical tests 23

2.4.3.2 Sensitivity Analysis Model 24

2.4.3.3 Frequency Ratio Model 25

2.5 Hybrid methods for groundwater vulnerability assessment 25

2.6 Previous works of using GIS for

groundwater vulnerability assessment 27

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2.7 Validation of groundwater vulnerability 31

2.8 Groundwater pollution and risk analysis 32

2.8.1 Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) 33

2.8.2 Ordinary Kriging 34

2.9 Risk Assessment 35

2.10 Previous works of using risk assessment method

for groundwater pollution 36

2.11 Summary 40

3 METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction 43

3.2 Description of the study area 43

3.2.1 Study area 43

3.2.2 Geology and hydrology of study area 43

3.2.2.1 General geology 44

3.2.2.2 Stratigraphy of the plain situation 45

3.2.2.3 Tectonic 48

3.3.3 Hydrogeology 48

3.3 Data Sources 48

3.3.1 Spatial data 49

3.3.2 Attribute data 49

3.3.3 Data used 49

3.3.4 Preparing the seven hydrological factors

and surveying nitrate samples 49

3.4 Methodology 63

3.4.1 Methodology overview 63

3.4.2 DRASTIC model 66

3.4.3 Wilcoxon rank sum nonparametric statistical tests 69

3.4.4 Single Parameter Sensitivity Analysis (SPSA) 69

3.4.5 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) 70

3.4.6 Ordinary Kriging (OK) 72

3.4.7 Frequency Ratio (FR) 73

3.5 Hybrid methods 75

3.5.1 Integration of Wilcoxon and DRASTIC model 75

3.5.2 Integration of Wilcoxon and SPSA method 76

3.5.3 Integration of AHP method,

Wilcoxon method and DRASTIC model 77

3.5.3.1 Optimizing the rates and weights of the

DRASTIC model using AHP 78

3.5.3.2 Optimizing of the DRASTIC model

using Wilcoxon and AHP 78

3.5.4 Revision of the rates of DRASTIC

using frequency ratio model 79

3.5.4.1 Integration of frequency ratio approach

with SPSA, AHP and DRASTIC model 80

3.6 Validation and selection of a suitable method

in the study area 82

3.6.1 Pearson correlation coefficient 82

3.7 Risk assessment method 83

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3.7.1 Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) 85

3.7.1.2 Data combination using DST 88

3.8 Summary 90

4 GROUNDWATER VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

4.1 Introduction 92

4.2 Hydrogeological layers of DRASTIC model 93

4.2.1 Groundwater vulnerability map using

original DRASTIC model 94

4.3 Hybrid methods 97

4.3.1 Modified groundwater vulnerability map

using Wilcoxon method 97

4.3.2 Modified groundwater vulnerability map

using Wilcoxon and SPSA methods 102

4.3.3 Modified groundwater vulnerability map using

AHP method with Wilcoxon method and DRASTIC model 104

4.3.3.1 Integration of AHP method and

DRASTIC model 107

4.3.3.2 Integration of Modified DRASTIC method

and AHP model 110

4.3.3.3 Integration of DRASTIC and AHP model 112

4.3.3.4 Integration of AHP rates and weights 113

4.3.4 Modified groundwater vulnerability map using

FR method with DRASTIC, SPSA and AHP method115

4.3.4.1 Integration of FR and DRASTIC model 120

4.3.4.2 Integration of FR and SPSA model 121

4.3.4.3 Integration of FR and AHP model 124

4.3.5 Comparison and validation of vulnerability maps

derived from different methods 126

4.4 Summary 128

5 RISK ASSESSMENT 5.1 Introduction 131

5.2 Basics for uncertainty and probability 131

5.3 Risk analysis 131

5.3.1 Groundwater vulnerability mapping 133

5.3.2 Damage map 134

5.3.3 Applying DST to groundwater pollution

risk assessment 136

5.3.4 Risk mapping 147

5.4 Summary 149

6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

6.1 Main conclusions 151

6.2 Recommendation 155

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6.3 Future research 155

REFERENCES 156

APPENDICES 176

BIODATA OF THE STUDENT 195

LIST OF PUBLICATIONS 196

ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER VULNERABILITY AND NITRATE CONTAMINATION RISK USING GIS-BASED DRASTIC MODEL WITH HYBRID STATISTICAL AND PROBABILISTIC TECHNIQUESABSTRACTTABLE OF CONTENTSCHAPTERSREFEERENCES

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New UNIVERSITI PUTRA MALAYSIA ASSESSMENT OF …psasir.upm.edu.my/47982/1/FK 2014 30R.pdf · 2016. 7. 4. · universiti putra malaysia aminreza neshat fk 2014 30 assessment of groundwater