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SustainabilityandClimateModelsfortheIntermountainWest‐AnAnnotatedBibliography‐

MarianneA.Buehler&WilliamE.Brown,Jr.November2011

Johnson'sCalifornia,withUtah,Nevada,Colorado,NewMexico,andArizona(1867).

CourtesyoftheUniversityofNevada,LasVegasLibrariesSpecialCollections

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TABLEOFCONTENTS

Introduction 3Websites&Blogs 4

ArizonaColoradoIdahoNevadaNewMexicoUtahWesternStates

ScholarlyArticles&Books 16Graduate&InstitutionalResearch20 GovernmentResearch 21Reports&Studies 25SecondarySources:Newspaperarticles 28

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SustainabilityandClimateModelsfortheIntermountainWest

Introduction

ThisresourceonclimatemodelsandsustainabilityintheIntermountainWest,aregionthatincludesthestatesofArizona,Colorado,Idaho,Nevada,NewMexico,andUtah,isacollaborativeeffortbetweentheUNLVLibraries(http://library.unlv.edu/)andBrookingsMountainWest(http://brookingsmtnwest.unlv.edu/).Theselectedcitationsincludeacademic,government,andnon‐profitinformationthathighlightongoingresearchonclimatemodelsandsustainabilityeffortsintheregion.Thewebsites,governmentstudies,independentreports,scholarlyarticles,andmediareportsreflectthediversityandcomplexityofclimatechangeandsustainabilityissuesinaregionthatcontainswidelyvaryingecosystems.TheIntermountainWest,withitsdeserts,basins,mountains,metropolitancenters,andruralareasisamicrocosmofournation’sterrain,withtheobviousandnotableexceptionofacoastalregion.Although,asstudiesshow,theIntermountainWestisnotimmunetoclimateshiftsoriginatinginnearbycoastalareas.Thecitationsprovidedhereinincludeannotateddescriptionsdesignedtoassistthereaderinevaluatingtheutilityofeachresource.Itisourintentiontoupdatethisinformationonaregularbasis,asnewinformationandresourcesareidentified.BrookingsMountainWeststaffproposedthecreationofthisresourceinSpring2011andMarianneBuehler,UrbanSustainabilityLibrarianfortheUNLVLibraries,ledtheresearchefforttoidentifyandevaluateavailableresourcesonthesetopics.Buehler,inpartnershipwithBillBrown,DirectorofPlanningandCommunicationatBrookingsMountainWest,refinedthelistandannotations,withtheinvaluableassistanceofChrisGalvan,asociologydoctoralcandidateatUNLV.

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Websites&BlogsArizona

Hoover(notBoulder)DamfromtheArizonaside(1937or1938?).

CourtesyoftheUniversityofNevada,LasVegasLibrariesSpecialCollections:http://digital.library.unlv.edu/objects/lv_water/865

1. ArizonaWaterInstitute:Arizona’sthreeuniversitiesfocusedonsustainability.

http://www.azwaterinstitute.org/

2. CollaborativeResearch:AssessingDecadalClimateChangeImpactsonUrbanPopulationsintheSouthwesternUSAhttp://sustainability.asu.edu/research/project.php?id=5173. DecisionCenterforaDesertCityhttp://dcdc.asu.edu/index.phpConductingclimate,water,anddecisionresearchanddevelopinginnovativetoolstobridgetheboundarybetweenscientistsanddecisionmakersandputourworkintothehandsofthosewhoseconcernisforthesustainablefutureofGreaterPhoenix.4.SustainableTucson:Waterarticlesandotherresourceshttp://www.sustainabletucson.org/affinity/water/5.TheWaterPlightofPhoenixhttp://www.columbia.edu/~kk2534/Phoenix%20Water/index.html.This

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websiteservesasasourceofinformationregardingthepast,presentandfutureofthisvanishingwaterresourceinthedesert.Itwillalsoexplorethevastpopulation'sdependenceonwaterandpotentialoutlooksfromcurrentstatistics.6.WaterResourcesResearchCenter,UniversityofArizona:Publications,newsletters,andmorehttp://www.ag.arizona.edu/azwater/

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Colorado

LakeGranbyMarina,Colorado,BillGreen.WithpermissionfromWaterResourcesArchive,ColoradoStateUniversity,ArchivesandSpecialCollections:

http://hdl.handle.net/10217/37843.

1. ClimatePreparednessProjecthttp://www.coloadaptationprofile.org/TheColoradoClimatePreparednessProjectwasundertakenbytheWesternWaterAssessmentfortheStateofColorado.TheprimarypurposeofthisprojectistoassistColoradoincontinuingtoprepareitselfforclimatevariabilityandchangebyprovidingacatalogofclimatevulnerabilitiesandcurrentactivities,includingpersonnel,productsandprojectsfromColoradoandotherappropriateentities.Theprojectfocusesonfivesectors:agriculture,electricity,forests/wildlife/ecosystems,tourism/recreation,andwater.Providesawealthofinformationfromnumerousprojectsunderthe“projects,”“organizations,”and“products”tab.“TheColoradoClimatePreparednessProjectwasundertakenbytheWesternWaterAssessmentfortheStateofColorado.TheprimarypurposeofthisprojectistoassistColoradoincontinuingtoprepareitselfforclimatevariabilityandchangebyprovidingacatalogofclimatevulnerabilitiesandcurrentactivities,includingpersonnel,productsandprojectsfromColoradoandotherappropriateentities.”2. TheColoradoClimateCenterwasestablishedbythestatein1974,throughtheColoradoStateUniversityAgriculturalExperimentStation,toprovideinformationandexpertiseonColorado'scomplexclimate.ThroughitsthreefoldprogramofClimateMonitoring(dataacquisition,analysis,andarchiving),ClimateResearchandClimateServices,theCenterisrespondingtomanyclimaterelatedquestionsandproblemsaffectingthestatetoday.http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/3. ColoradoDivisionofWaterResourceshttp://water.state.co.us/Home/Pages/default.aspx

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AlsoknownastheOfficeoftheStateEngineer,administerswaterrights,issueswaterwellpermits,representsColoradoininterstatewatercompactproceedings,monitorsstream‐flowandwateruse,approvesconstructionandrepairofdamsandperformsdamsafetyinspections,issueslicensesforwelldrillersandassuresthesafeandproperconstructionofwaterwells,andmaintainsnumerousdatabasesofColoradowaterinformation.4. ColoradoRiverDistricthttp://www.crwcd.org/Toleadintheprotection,conservation,useanddevelopmentofthewaterresourcesoftheColoradoRiverbasinforthewelfareoftheDistrict,andtosafeguardforColoradoallwatersoftheColoradoRivertowhichthestateisentitled.5. U.S.GeologicalSurvey:ColoradoDroughtWatchhttp://co.water.usgs.gov/drought/BureauofReclamationhttp://www.usbr.gov/uc/feature/drought.html6. TheWaterInformationProgramforSouthwestColoradohttp://www.waterinfo.org/indian.htmlCompetingwaterusesfromtheColoradoRiversystemhavedefinedColoradohistoryforover100years.ThelegalrighttodivertandusewaterinColoradohasbeendeliberatedanddefinedfrombeforethetimeofstatehoodin1876.7. WesternWaterAssessment:IntermountainWestClimateSummaryhttp://wwa.colorado.edu/IWCS/.“Providesthelatestclimateinformationinasimple,compactdocumentaimedatwatermanagers,planners,andpolicymakerswithwater‐relatedinterests.”“Acool,wetAprildelayedmeltandaddedtothesnowpackacrossmostoftheregion’smountains.Asaresult,May1stsnowpacksinthethree‐stateregionincreasedfromtheApril1stlevels,andaremuchaboveaverageinallbutsoutheasternUtahandsouthernColorado.ThemostdramaticincreaseshavebeeninWyoming,northernUtah,andnorthernColorado.”Alsoincludesdroughtandprecipitationpredictions,visualaids,andawealthofinformationonclimateconditionsintheIntermountainWest.

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Idaho

Mesadamandditchtake‐offonMiddleForkWeiserRiver,Idaho,locatedapproximately7milesbyroadaboveU.S.95.Mesadamandditchtake‐off(08‐24‐1941).CourtesyoftheUniversityofOregonLibraries:http://oregondigital.org/cdm4/item_viewer.php?CISOROOT=/streamsurve&CISOPTR=5.

1. IdahoWaterCenterhttp://www.uidaho.edu/boise/aboutus/idahowatercenterIdaho’scenterofcollaborationamonggovernment,businessandhighereducation,isdedicatedtoresearch,scholarshipandservicetoIdahoandthenation.2. IdahoWaterResourceBoardhttp://www.idwr.idaho.gov/waterboard/WaterPlanning/StateWaterPlanning/State_Planning.htmTheIdahoWaterResourceBoardischargedwiththedevelopmentoftheIdahoComprehensiveStateWaterPlan.Theplanincludesthestatewidewaterpolicyplanandassociatedcomponentbasinandwaterbodyplanswhichcoverspecificgeographicareasofthestateandyears:1972‐currentplans.3. ManagingWaterintheWest:FinalBoise/PayetteWaterStorageAssessmentReport2006,U.S.DepartmentoftheInteriorBureauofReclamationPacificNorthwestRegion.ThisassessmentisjustoneactivityandoneaspectofthemanyactivitiesthatmultipleagenciesareconductingtoaddresswatersupplyandwatermanagementissuesintheBoiseandPayetteRiverBasins.http://www.usbr.gov/pn/programs/srao_misc/bp.../FinalBoisePayetteRpt.pdf

4. WaterResourcesinaChangingClimate(Idahoclimatechange):EPScORresearch.Goalistoimprovethestatewideresearchinfrastructureforunderstandingtheeffectsofclimatechangeonwaterresourcesinourregionandtheimpactoftheseeffectsofecological,humanandeconomicsystems.http://www.idahoclimatechange.org/

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Nevada

TelephotoviewofHooverDamfromtheupstreamsideshowingthecompletedintaketowers(1936?).CourtesyoftheUniversityofNevada,LasVegasLibrariesSpecialCollections:http://digital.library.unlv.edu/objects/lv_water/678.

1. “Climatemodeling”DesertResearchInstitute(Reno)http://climatemodeling.blogspot.com/2011/04/integrated‐system‐model‐framework‐and.htmlJohnMejia.Developmentandimplementationof“statistical”andRegionalClimateModeldownscalingtechniquesusingGlobalClimeModelingoutputfromtheCMIP3andCMIP5intospacescalesrelevantforregionalandlocalimpactstudies.2. “It’sAllWater:DemonstrationofanInnovativeTreatmentTechnologyforWaterBankinginNevada.”VijaySundaram,P.E.andJohnP.Enloe,P.E.,ECO:LOGICEngineeringhttp://nvwea.org/sswe‐newsletters‐detail/3034‐its‐all‐waterWatershortagesforecastforthewestandthepossibilityofextendeddroughtposeseriouschallengesforNevada.Potentialwatershortagescanbeaddressedintheimmediatefuturebyinsightfulmanagementofavailablefreshwaterresources,andrecyclingorbanking“onceused”waterresources(e.g.,reuseofmunicipaleffluent).3.NevadaClimateChangePortal:Thefocusofthiswebsiteistoadvancethequality,andquantityofinfrastructureanddatacollectionforclimate,hydrologicalandecologicalinformationpertainingtothestateofNevada.ThiswebsiteprovidesinformationontheNevadaClimateChangeProjectandaccesstoboththeNevCAN(NevadaClimate‐ecohydrologyAssessmentNetwork)andclimatemodelingoutput.http://www.sensor.nevada.edu/NCCP/

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NewMexico

AncientirrigationditchnearRuidosoCreek,SouthernNewMexico.Byoneestimate,theditchmaybeasmuchas2000yearsold.Photodate:1929.Moreinformationandpermissions:http://econtent.unm.edu/cdm4/item_viewer.php?CISOROOT=/NMWaters&CISOPTR=3506.

1. EvaluatingtheSustainabilityoftheAlbuquerqueWaterSupply.http://www.challenge.nm.org/archive/00‐01/FinalReports/013/Thepeopleofthisstateusetoomuchwaterfromtheaquiferfromwhichmostofthestate’swaterispumped.Asthewatersupplydwindles,thepopulationgrows.Howlonguntilthisissuebecomesaseriousproblem?InAlbuquerque,NewMexico,thegovernmenthasseenthisproblemandistakingstepstofixit.2. Water,GrowthandSustainability:Planningforthe21STCentury(SantaFe)NewMexico:WaterResourcesResearchInstitute12‐2000http://wrri.nmsu.edu/publish/watcon/proc45/ohare.pdf“IthinkweprobablyhavethemostseverewatershortageemergencyofanylargecitywithinthestateandhaveimplementedwateruserestrictionsIwanttosharewithyou.”3. NewMexicoEPSCoRandClimateModeling:AcentralresearchchallengeofNMEPSCoRistounderstandhowfuturechangesinseasonaltemperatureandprecipitationwillimpactsnowpack,snowmeltandspringrunoffinthemountainousregionofnorthcentralNewMexico.Thisregion,thesouthernmostextentoftheRockyMountainrange,servesastheheadwatersforriversystemsofcrucialimportancetoNM,includingtheRioGrande.http://nmepscor.org/content/hydrology‐and‐climate‐modeling

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4. UniversityofNewMexicoLibGuide:USGSandEPAMexicowaterresourcedata,snowsurvey,climateinformation,andmore.http://libguides.unm.edu/content.php?pid=15497&sid=199424

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Utah

LakePowell(1954‐1972).CourtesyofColoradoStateUniversityLibraries:http://hdl.handle.net/10217/26288.

1. ClimateResearchGroup:UniversityofUtahstudiesclimateandclimatechangewithafocusonatmosphericdynamicsincludeprojects,presentations,andpublications.http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~reichler/research/research.shtmlAdditionalpostersandtalks:http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~reichler/talks/tjr_talks.shtml2. LeagueofWomenVotersofUtahWaterStudy,September2009.http://www.lwvutah.org/AirWaterIssues/lwvutWaterStudy_10‐10‐19.pdf“In2008theLeagueofWomenVotersofUtahdecidedtodoastudyofUtahwatersothatwecouldbetteradvocateforourmembers’deepconcernsaboutwaterforpeopleandwaterfortheenvironment.Thispaperisconcernedwithaccountingforourwaterandhowwemanageit,notwithwaterqualityeitherforhumanusesorforwildlife…Utahistheseconddrieststateinthenation;Utahhasthesecondhighestpercapitawateruse.However,wearetoldtoexpectmorepeople,andtheclimatesectionwillshowthatUtahcanmostlikelyexpectlonger,hotterdroughtsattheleastandmorelikelyahotter,drierclimateoverall.Theoutcomesfromthemodelsvaryfromseveredroughtwithdireconsequencestomoremoderatedeclinesinprecipitationthat,althoughserious,maybemanageable.ScientistsandmostwatermanagersagreethatglobalwarmingwillbringhighertemperaturestoallofUtah.MostofUtah’susablewatercomesfromsnowpack.Thestate’ssystemofreservoirsfillsinlatespringandearlysummerfromtheslowsnowmelt.Thewaterlevelinthereservoirsstartstobedrawndownbeginninginlatesummer,throughtherestoftheyearandintothenextspring.Thesystemdependsuponasubstantialsnowfallandthetimingofthespringsnowmelt.LittlesnowormoreprecipitationfallingasraindoesnotallowfortimelystorageinUtah’shighmountainreservoirsorforefficientseasonalallocation.IfUtahhasahotteranddrierclimate,therewillbelesswaterinanyform,asmallersnowpack,andprobablyhigherhumanusagetocounterthehotter,drierweather.EvenifUtah

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weretobewarmerbutwetter,thereareproblems.Moreprecipitationwillfallasrainratherthansnow,filteringthroughthegroundtoouraquifersnottoourreservoirs,whereitismoreaccessibletothewaterdeliverysystemnowinplace.Thesmallersnowpackwillmeltearly,andsinceUtahreceiveslittlesummermoisture,itislikelythatsummerwaterusewillstillbehighandlong….TheGovernor’sOfficeofPlanningandBudgetprojectsthatthepopulationwillgrowfrom2,833,337in2010to5,368,567in2050,mostlyontheWasatchFront(GOPB,2009).”“Waterusageishighestindrystatesduetoprecipitation,whichhasincreasedduetoglobalwarming.Tucsonhaslowpercapitawateruse,andUtah’sdroppedfrom293gpcdin2000to260gpcdin2005(UDWR(2009)WeberR.Basin,p.47).Botharelargelyattributabletoefficienciesachievedbybothsuppliersandconsumersofwater.” 3. UtahStateUniversityClimateCenterhttp://climate.usurf.usu.edu/ThemissionoftheUtahClimateCenter(UCC)istofacilitateaccesstoclimatedataandinformation,andtouseexpertiseinatmosphericsciencetointerpretclimateinformationinanaccurateandinnovativefashionforthepublic.Themissionincludesthedesignofnewproductstomeetpresentandfutureneedsofagriculture,naturalresources,government,industry,tourism,andeducationalorganizationsinUtahandtheintermountainregion.4. UniversityofUtah‐SCI(ScientificComputingandImaging)Institutehttp://www.sci.utah.edu/TheScientificComputingandImaging(SCI)InstituteisapermanentresearchinstituteattheUniversityofUtah.DirectedbyProfessorChrisJohnson,theInstituteisnowhometoover190faculty,students,andstaff.Thefaculty,drawnprimarilyfromtheSchoolofComputing,DepartmentofBioengineering,andDepartmentofElectricalandComputerEngineering,isnotedforitsbreadthofcollaborationsbothnationallyandinternationally.TheSCIInstitutehasestablisheditselfasaninternationallyrecognizedleaderinvisualization,scientificcomputing,andimageanalysis.Theoverarchingresearchobjectiveistocreatenewscientificcomputingtechniques,tools,andsystemsthatenablesolutionstoproblemsaffectingvariousaspectsofhumanlife.AcorefocusoftheInstitutehasbeenbiomedicine,butSCIInstituteresearchersalsosolvechallengingcomputationalandimagingproblemsinsuchdisciplinesasgeophysics,combustion,moleculardynamics,fluiddynamics,andatmosphericdispersion.

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WesternStates1. SouthwestClimateChangeNETWORK:Climate,impacts,solutions,articlesfeaturedandlibrarytabswithmoreinformation.Recognizingthegrowingneedforinformationaboutourchangingclimate,theInstituteoftheEnvironmentandtheClimateAssessmentfortheSouthwest(CLIMAS)atTheUniversityofArizonadevelopedandjointlyadministertheSouthwestClimateChangeNetwork.TheInstituteoftheEnvironmentisacross‐campusandcommunityresourceandacatalystintheareaofenvironmentandsociety;itpromotesbothdisciplinaryandinterdisciplinaryresearchrelatingtotheEarth’senvironment,fromlocaltoglobalscales,andhowthisenvironmentislikelytochangeincomingseasons,years,anddecades.CLIMASisaprojecthousedwithintheInstituteandfundedbytheU.S.NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrationtocarryoutstakeholder‐driveninterdisciplinaryclimateresearch.Since1998,CLIMAShascontributedtotheSouthwest’sabilitytorespondsufficientlyandappropriatelytoclimaticeventsandclimatechanges.http://www.southwestclimatechange.org/

3.UnitedStatesGlobalChangeResearchProgramhttp://www.globalchange.gov/Integratingfederalresearchandsolutionsforclimateandglobalchange:TheU.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram(USGCRP)coordinatesandintegratesfederalresearchonchangesintheglobalenvironmentandtheirimplicationsforsociety.Containsreportsandpublications.

4.U.S.DepartmentoftheInterior.BureauofReclamation.WaterSmartProgram.West‐WideClimateRiskAssessments.http://www.usbr.gov/WaterSMART/wwcra.html5. TheWest‐WideClimateRiskAssessments(WWCRA)areacomplementaryactivitywiththeBasinStudiesandtheLandscapeConservationCooperativeswithintheWaterSMARTInitiative,inaccordancewithSecretarialOrder3289(andmeettheauthorizationsoftheSecureWaterAct.Asawhole,thesethreeactivitiesrepresentacomprehensiveapproachtoincorporatethebestavailablescienceintoplanningactivitiesforclimatechangeadaptationplanning.6. WesternStatesWaterLawshttp://www.blm.gov/nstc/WaterLaws/Thiswebsitereviewsthewaterlawsofelevenwesternstates(Alaska,Arizona,California,Colorado,Idaho,Montana,Nevada,NewMexico,Oregon,Utah,andWyoming).Specialattentionispaidtothestates’waterrightssystems,theapplicationprocesses,groundwaterregulations,thegeneraladjudicationprocesses,andthestates’in‐streamflowprograms.7.LinkstoavarietyofWesternWaterResourcesIssues:Waterresourcecenters,waterplans,dams,drought,groundwater,waterquality,statewaterresources,environmentalorganizations,federalagencies,andconservation.http://web.hwr.arizona.edu/globe/h2oissues.html

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ScholarlyArticles&Books

1.“AregionalclimatemodelforthewesternUnitedStates,”RobertE.Dickinson,RonaldM.Errico,FilippoGiorgi,andGaryT.Bates.ClimaticChange,Volume1,1977,Volume106,2011,pp.383‐422.http://www.springerlink.com/content/v112217p34405205/Anumericalapproachtomodelingclimateonaregionalscaleisdevelopedwherebylarge‐scaleweathersystemsaresimulatedwithaglobalclimatemodel(GCM)andtheGCMoutputisusedtoprovidetheboundaryconditionsneededforhigh‐resolutionmesoscalemodelsimulationsovertheregionofinterest.Inourexample,weusetheNationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch(NCAR)communityclimatemodel(CCM1)andthePennsylvaniaStateUniversity(PSU)/NCARMesoscaleModelversion4(MM4)toapplythisapproachoverthewesternUnitedStates(U.S.).Thetopography,asresolvedbythe500‐kmmeshoftheCCM1,isnecessarilyhighlydistorted,butwiththe60‐kmmeshoftheMM4themajormountainrangesaredistinguished.Toobtainadequateandconsistentrepresentationsofsurfaceclimate,weusethesameradiationandlandsurfacetreatmentsinbothmodels,thelatterbeingtherecentlydevelopedBiosphere‐AtmosphereTransferScheme(BATS).OuranalysisemphasizesthesimulationatfourCCM1pointssurroundingYuccaMountain,NV,becauseoftheneedtodetermineitsclimatologypriortocertificationasahigh‐levelnuclearwasterepository.WesimulateglobalclimateforthreeyearswithCCM1/BATSanddescribetheresultingJanuarysurfaceclimatologyovertheWesternU.S.Thedetailsoftheprecipitationpatternsareunrealisticbecauseofthesmoothtopography.SelectingfiveJanuaryCCM1stormsthatoccuroverthewesternU.S.withatotaldurationof20daysforsimulationwiththeMM4,wedemonstratethatthemesoscalemodelprovidesmuchimprovedwintertimeprecipitationpatterns.ThestormsinMM4areindividuallymuchmorerealisticthanthoseinCCM1.AsimpleaveragingprocedurethatinfersameanJanuaryrainfallclimatologycalculatedfromthe20daysofMM4simulationismuchclosertotheobservedthanistheCCM1climatology.Thesoilmoistureandsubsurfacedrainagesimulatedover3–5dayintegrationperiodsofMM4,however,remainstronglydependentontheinitialCCM1soilmoistureandthusarelessrealisticthantherainfall.Adequatesimulationofsurfacesoilwatermayrequireintegrationsofthemesoscalemodelovertimeperiods. 2.“Anapproachtowardarationalclassificationofclimate.”C.W.Thornthwaite. GeographicalReview,Vol.38,No.1(Jan.,1948),pp.55‐94.Publishedby:AmericanGeographicalSociety.IncludesWesternclimaticcharts/graphs.Thesumoftheclimaticelementsthathavebeenunderobservationdoesnotequalclimate.http://www.jstor.org/stable/2107393. “ClimateChange,Water,andRisk:CurrentWaterDemandsAreNotSustainable,"NaturalResourcesDefenseCouncil,July2010.Climatechangewillhaveasignificantimpactonthesustainabilityofwatersuppliesinthecomingdecades.Anewanalysis,performedbyconsultingfirmTetraTechfortheNaturalResourcesDefenseCouncil(NRDC),examinedtheeffectsofglobalwarmingonwatersupplyanddemandinthecontiguousUnitedStates.Thestudyfoundthatmorethan1,100counties—one‐thirdofallcountiesinthelower48—willfacehigherrisksofwatershortagesbymid‐centuryastheresultofglobalwarming.www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/watersustainability/files/WaterRisk.pdf4.“DryTimesAhead,”JonathanOverpeckandBradleyUdall,Science,Vol.328,p.1642,25June2010.http://www.sciencemag.org/content/328/5986/1642.short

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“Inthepastdecade,ithasbecomeimpossibletooverlookthesignsofclimatechangeinwesternNorthAmerica.Theyincludesoaringtemperatures,declininglate‐seasonsnowpack,northward‐shiftedwinterstormtracks,increasingprecipitationintensity,theworstdroughtsincemeasurementsbegan,steepdeclinesinColoradoRiverreservoirstorage,widespreadvegetationmortality,andsharpincreasesinthefrequencyoflargewildfires.Theseshiftshavetakenplaceacrossaregionthatalsosawthenation'shighestpopulationgrowthduringthesameperiod.”5. ”GlobalWarmingComingHometoRoostintheAmericanWest”(CA).RichardA.Kerr.Science21December2007:http://www.sciencemag.org/content/318/5858/1859.full6. "Human‐InducedChangesintheHydrologyoftheWesternUnitedStates"TimP.Barnett,etal.ScienceMagazineReport.Science22February2008:Vol.319no.5866pp.1080‐1083.DOI:10.1126/science.1152538.ObservationshaveshownthatthehydrologicalcycleoftheWesternUnitedStateschangedsignificantlyoverthelasthalfofthe20thcentury.Wepresentaregional,multivariableclimatechangedetectionandattributionstudy,usingahigh‐resolutionhydrologicmodelforcedbyglobalclimatemodels,focusingonthechangesthathavealreadyaffectedthisprimarilyaridregionwithalargeandgrowingpopulation.Includesadditionalfull‐textarticlescitingthisarticle.http://www.sciencemag.org/content/319/5866/1080.short7. “HydroclimateoftheWesternUnitedStatesBasedonObservationsandRegionalClimateSimulationof1981–2000“JournalofClimate,V16,Issue12.PartI:SeasonalStatisticsL.RubyLeung,YunQian,andXindiBian.PacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory,Richland,Washington.Providesdetailedanalysesofobservationsandregionalclimatesimulationstoimproveourunderstandingandmodelingoftheclimateofthisregion.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520‐0442%282003%29016%3C1892%3AHOTWUS%3E2.0.CO%3B28."IdentifyingandevaluatingrobustadaptivepolicyresponsestoclimatechangeforwatermanagementagenciesintheAmericanwest,"RobertJ.LempertandDavidG.Groves.TechnologicalForecastingandSocialChange,Volume77,Issue6,July2010,Pages960‐974.ClimatechangepresentsasignificantplanningchallengeforwatermanagementagenciesintheWesternUnitedStates.Changingprecipitationandtemperaturepatternswilldisrupttheirsupplyandextensivedistributionsystemsoverthecomingdecades,buttheprecisetimingandextentoftheseimpactsremaindeeplyuncertain,complicatingdecisionsonneededinvestmentsininfrastructureandothersystemimprovements.Adaptivestrategiesrepresentanobvioussolutioninprinciple,butareoftendifficulttodevelopandimplementinpractice.ThispaperdescribesworkhelpingtheInlandEmpireUtilitiesAgency(IEUA)explicitlydevelopadaptivepoliciestorespondtoclimatechangeandintegratingthesepoliciesintotheorganizations'long‐rangeplanningprocesses.TheanalysisemploysRobustDecisionMaking(RDM),aquantitativedecision‐analyticapproachforsupportingdecisionsunderconditionsofdeepuncertainty.RDMstudiesusesimulationmodelstoassesstheperformanceofagencyplansoverthousandsofplausiblefutures,usestatistical“scenariodiscovery”algorithmstoconciselysummarizethosefutureswheretheplansfailtoperformadequately,andusetheseresultingscenariostohelpdecisionmakersunderstandthevulnerabilitiesoftheirplansandassesstheoptionsfor

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amelioratingthesevulnerabilities.ThispaperdemonstratestheparticularvalueofRDMinhelpingdecisionmakerstodesignandevaluateadaptivestrategies.ForIEUA,theRDManalysissuggeststheagency'scurrentplancouldperformpoorlyandleadtohighshortageandwaterprovisioningcostsunderconditionsof:(1)largedeclinesinprecipitation,(2)larger‐than‐expectedimpactsofclimatechangeontheavailabilityofimportedsupplies,and(3)reductionsinpercolationofprecipitationintotheregion'sgroundwaterbasin.Includingadaptivityinthecurrentplaneliminates72%ofthehigh‐costoutcomes.Acceleratingeffortsinexpandingthesizeofoneoftheagency'sgroundwaterbankingprogramsandimplementingitsrecyclingprogram,whilemonitoringtheregion'ssupplyanddemandbalanceandmakingadditionalinvestmentsinefficiencyandstorm‐watercaptureifshortagesareprojectedprovidesonepromisingrobustadaptivestrategy—iteliminatesmorethan80%oftheinitially‐identifiedhigh‐costoutcomes.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016251000074010.“Mid‐centuryensembleregionalclimatechangescenariosfortheWesternUnitedStates,”L.RubyLeung,etal.ClimaticChange,Volume62,Numbers1‐3,75‐113,2004.Describestheregionalsimulationsandfocusesonthehydro‐climateconditionsintheColumbiaRiverBasin(CRB)andSacramento‐SanJoaquinRiver(SSJ)Basin.Fromfws.gov:http://www.fws.gov/filedownloads/ftp_region6_upload/FOIA%20READING%20ROOM/FOIA%202010/American%20Pika%2012%20Month/12%20month%20status%20review%20citations/Leung%20et%20al%202004.pdf11.“Multi‐decadalRegimeShiftsinU.S.Streamflow,Precipitation,andTemperatureattheEndoftheTwentiethCentury.”Mauget,StevenA.,2003:J.Climate,16,3905–391.Coversyears:1896–2001.Duringthelate1980sandearly1990s,asignificantincidenceoflow‐rankedannualflowconditionsthroughouttheWestwasroughlycoincidentwiththeonsetofWesternwarmthduringthemid‐1980s.Evidenceofhighlysignificanttransitionstowetterandwarmerconditionsnationally,andconsistentvariationinstreamflowanalyses,suggeststhatincreasedhydrologicalsurplusintheCentralandEasternUnitedStatesandincreasedhydrologicaldeficitintheWestmayberepresentativeoftheinitialstagesofclimatechangeoverthecontinentalUnitedStates.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520‐0442%282003%29016%3C3905%3AMRSIUS%3E2.0.CO%3B2ResolvingtheWaterDilemma:PastProblemsandFutureTrends(withRichardActon),inPublicPolicyinNevada:LookingTowardstheYear2000andBeyond(DennisL.SodenandEricHerzik,eds.).Dubuque:Kendall‐HuntPublishers,1997.12.“Water,GrowthandSustainability:Planningforthe21STCentury,”EluidMartinez,WaterIssuesintheWest.December2000.NewMexicoWaterResourcesResearchInstitute.http://wrri.nmsu.edu/publish/watcon/proc45/martinez.pdf13.TheWaterChallenge:ContemporaryIssuesinNorthernNevada(withRichardActon),inPublicPolicyinNevada:TheNewMillennium(DennisL.SodenandEricHerzik,eds.).Dubuque:Kendall‐HuntPublishers,2000.14.“TrendsintheHydrologyoftheWesternU.S.BeartheImprintofManmadeClimateChange.”BarbaraGossLevi,physicstoday,April2008.http://physicstoday.org/resource/1/phtoad/v61/i4/p16_s1

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15.ColoradoRiverBasinWaterManagement:EvaluatingandAdjustingtoHydroclimaticVariability,CommitteeontheScientificBasesofColoradoRiverBasinWaterManagement,NationalResearchCouncil,222pages.Recentstudiesofpastclimateandstream‐flowconditionshavebroadenedunderstandingoflong‐termwateravailabilityintheColoradoRiver,revealingmanyperiodswhenstream‐flowwaslowerthanatanytimeinthepast100yearsofrecordedflows.Thatinformation,alongwithtwoimportanttrends—arapidincreaseinurbanpopulationsintheWestandsignificantclimatewarmingintheregion—willrequirethatwatermanagersprepareforpossiblereductionsinwatersuppliesthatcannotbefullyavertedthroughtraditionalmeans.http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=118516.UniversityofNevada,LasVegasfacultyresearcharticlesonwater,drought,andstream‐flowintheWesternU.S.http://digitalcommons.library.unlv.edu/fac_articles/

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Graduate&InstitutionalResearchGraduateResearch

1. ClimatechangeinruralNevada:Theinfluenceofvulnerabilityonriskperceptionandenvironmentalbehavior,AhmadSafi.Dissertation,2011.http://digitalcommons.library.unlv.edu/thesesdissertations/906/2. Groundwater:SolutiontotheLasVegaswaterproblem?RosaPerezandChristopherRuiz.Poster,2011.http://digitalcommons.library.unlv.edu/focs_ug_research/2011/april16/41/

InstitutionalResearchNevadaNSFEPSCoRClimateChangeProject(2008‐2013)

1. ClimateChangeSeminarSeries:(Lectures&PowerPointpresentations):http://digitalcommons.library.unlv.edu/climate_change/

2. EPSCoRConference(PowerPointpresentations&researchposters):http://digitalcommons.library.unlv.edu/epscor/

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GovernmentResearch1.ArizonaDepartmentofEnvironmentalQuality,ArizonaClimateChangeInitiatives.TheGovernor'sPolicyonClimateChange,ExecutiveOrder2010‐06,recognizestheimportanceofreducinggreenhousegasemissionswhilemaintainingArizona'seconomicgrowthandcompetitiveness.Increasedgreenhousegasemissions,akeydriverinfluencingclimatechangemayresultasArizona'spopulationandeconomyexpands,butArizonahassignificantstrengthsonwhichtobuild,includingstringentrenewableenergystandardsandoneofthenation'smostaggressiveenergyefficiencystandards.TheGovernor'spolicysupportsArizona'scontinuedcollaborationinregionalandnationalendeavorstoadvancecleanenergyandimplementcost‐effectivesolutionstoclimatechangewhilesafeguardingitsuniquestateinterests.TheArizonaDepartmentofEnvironmentalQualityhasanimportantroleinensuringcleanair,safewater,andbetterprotectedlandforallArizonans.TogetherwithArizonabusinessesandcommunities,westriveforpragmatic,pro‐activeapproachestoclimatechangebyadvancingcleanrenewableenergy,smartgrowth,fuelefficienttransportationandenergyefficiencypoliciesandpracticesthatmakesenseforArizona.http://www.azclimatechange.gov/az_initiatives.html2."ClimateChange,Water,andRisk:CurrentWaterDemandsAreNotSustainable,"NaturalResourcesDefenseCouncil,July2010.Climatechangewillhaveasignificantimpactonthesustainabilityofwatersuppliesinthecomingdecades.Anewanalysis,performedbyconsultingfirmTetraTechfortheNaturalResourcesDefenseCouncil(NRDC),examinedtheeffectsofglobalwarmingonwatersupplyanddemandinthecontiguousUnitedStates.Thestudyfoundthatmorethan1,100counties—one‐thirdofallcountiesinthelower48willfacehigherrisksofwatershortagesbymid‐centuryastheresultofglobalwarming.Somestateshaveanextremeorhighrisktowatersustainability,orarelikelytoseelimitationsonwateravailabilityasdemandexceedssupplyby2050.TheseareasincludepartsofArizona,Arkansas,California,Colorado,Florida,Idaho,Kansas,Mississippi,Montana,Nebraska,Nevada,NewMexico,Oklahoma,andTexas.Inparticular,intheGreatPlainsandSouthwestUnitedStates,watersustainabilityisatextremerisk.Twooftheprincipalreasonsfortheprojectedwaterconstraintsareshiftsinprecipitationandpotentialevapotranspiration(PET).Evapotranspirationisthesumofevaporativelossofwaterfromthegroundsurfaceandtranspirationlossesthroughvegetation.”www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/watersustainability/files/WaterRisk.pdf3.“Climate:Waitingtobattlewarming“imprudent”NASwarnsCongress(05/12/2011.)LaurenMorello,E&Ereporter.Climatechangeisrealandposes"significantrisks"tosociety,theNationalAcademyofSciencessaidtoday,warningthatdelayingcutsingreenhousegasemissionswillmakedealingwiththeproblemharderinthefuture."Eachadditionaltonofgreenhousegasesemittedcommitsustofurtherchangeandgreaterrisks,"thereportsays.Theplain‐spokendocument,preparedinresponsetoCongress'requestfor"actionoriented"advice,sayswaitingtocombatwarmingis"imprudent."ItcallsforthefederalgovernmenttotakealeadroleincombatingclimatechangeintheUnitedStates—whichitsaidcannotbeaddressedeffectivelywithpiecemealeffortsbystateandlocalgovernments—andabroad."Therisksassociatedwithdoingbusinessasusualareamuchgreaterconcernthantherisksassociatedwithengaginginstrongresponseefforts,"thereportadds."Thisisbecausemanyaspectsofan'overlyambitious'policyresponsecouldbereversedifneeded,throughsubsequentpolicychange;

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whereasadversechangesintheclimatesystemaremuchmoredifficult(indeed,onthetimescaleofourlifetimes,maybeimpossible)to'undo.'”Theanalysis,preparedbyateamofscientists,economistsandengineers,alsoweighsinonthestateofclimatescience,whichitdeemssound—thoughitsayssomedegreeofuncertaintyabouttherateandseverityoffutureclimatechangeisinevitable."Giventheinherentcomplexitiesoftheclimatesystem,andthemanysocial,economic,technological,andotherfactorsthataffecttheclimatesystem,wecanexpectalwaystobelearningmoreandtobefacinguncertaintiesregardingfuturerisks,"thereportsays."Thisisnot,however,areasonforinaction."http://www.eenews.net/eenewspm/rss/2011/05/12/14.CollaborativeManagementandResearchintheGreatBasin–ExaminingtheIssuesandDevelopingaFrameworkforAction.JeanneC.Chambers,NoraDevoe,andAngelaEvenden,editors.http://www.cabnr.unr.edu/GreatBasinWatershed/Issues_Papers.pdf“ThisGTRistheproductoftheworkshopon“CollaborativeWatershedResearchandManagementintheGreatBasin”thatwasheldinReno,NevadaonNovember28‐30,2006.CosponsorsincludedUniversityofNevada,Reno,DesertResearchInstitute,GreatBasinCooperativeEcosystemsStudiesUnit,UtahStateUniversity,AgriculturalResearchService,BureauofLandManagement,StateofNevada,DepartmentofWildlifeandGame,USDAForestService,Region4,USDAForestService,RockyMountainResearchStation,USGeologicalSurvey.”ThisfilecontainsanumberofreportsregardingclimatechangeandsustainabilityintheSouthwesternU.S.Insummation:“BecausetheGreatBasinisasemi‐aridregion,thechangingclimateislikelytohaveagreaterinfluencethaninmoremesicregions.TheGreatBasinwarmedby0.6to1.1Finthelast100yearsandisprojectedtowarmbyanadditional3to6Fbytheendofthiscentury(EnvironmentalProtectionAgency1998,Wagner2003).Precipitationincreased6‐16%inthelast50years;itisprojectedtocontinuetoincreaseinthefuture(Baldwinandothers2003).However,snowpackhasdeclinedandthedecreasesintheGreatBasinhavebeenamongthelargestinthenation(Moteandothers2005).Boththeonsetofspringandthetimingofspringsnowmelt‐drivenstreamflowarenowabout10‐15daysearlierthan50yearsago(Cayanandothers2001,Baldwinandothers2003,Stewartandothers2004).Inthefutureitislikelythatspringpeakflowswillbereducedandevenearlierasmorewinterprecipitationfallsasrain.Thefrequencyofdroughtsandfloodsispredictedtoincrease.Thesechangesinflowregimeswillresultinmanagementchallengesrelatedtowaterstorage,channelmaintenance,floodsanddroughts,pollutants,andbiodiversity(Baldwinandothers2003).Waterresourcesnowusedforhydropower,irrigation,riparianandaquatichabitatandfisheriesallmaybenegativelyaffected.”Thisreportprovidesaplethoraofsourcesandlinkstorelatedorganizations.5.“GlobalClimateChangeImpactsintheUnitedStates,”ThomasR.Karl,JerryM.Melillo,andThomasC.Peterson,(eds.).July2009.CambridgeUniversityPress.(inpublicdomain).ThisreportsummarizesthescienceofclimatechangeandtheimpactsofclimatechangeontheUnitedStates,nowandinthefuture.ItislargelybasedonresultsoftheU.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram(USGCRP)andintegratesthoseresultswithrelatedresearchfromaroundtheworld.downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate‐impacts‐report.pdf

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“ThisreportsummarizesthescienceofclimatechangeandtheimpactsofclimatechangeontheUnitedStates,nowandinthefuture.ItislargelybasedonresultsoftheU.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram(USGCRP)andintegratesthoseresultswithrelatedresearchfromaroundtheworld….Watersuppliesareprojectedtobecomeincreasinglyscarce,callingfortrade‐offsamongcompetinguses,andpotentiallyleadingtoconflict.”p.129beginsthediscussionoftheSouthwest.6.IdahoPayetteRiverBasinComprehensiveStateWaterPlan:Issues,considerations,andgoalshttp://www.idwr.idaho.gov/waterboard/WaterPlanning/CompBasinPlanning/Payette/PDF/Payette%20Resource%20Issues‐Goals.pdf7.SECUREWaterActSection9503(c)–ReclamationClimateChangeandWater2011,preparedbytheU.S.Dept.oftheInteriorBureauofReclamation.http://www.usbr.gov/climate/SECURE/docs/SECUREWaterReport.pdf“ArecentpaperbytheCongressionalBudgetOfficesummarizesthecurrentunderstandingoftheimpactsofclimatechangeintheUnitedStates,includingthatwarmingwilltendtobegreaterintheinteriorofthecontiguousUnitedStates.TemperatureandprecipitationconditionsoverWesternUnitedStatesregionaldrainagesareprojectedtochangeastheeffectsofglobalclimatechangearerealized.ProjectionsoffuturetemperatureandprecipitationarebasedonmultipleGlobalCirculation(orClimate)Models(GCMs)andvariousprojectionsoffuturegreenhousegasemissions(GHG),technologicaladvancements,andglobalpopulationestimates.Asurveyofthesemodelsoveranyoftheregionaldrainagesshowsthatthereismodelconsensusagreementreportedbetweenclimatemodelprojection.”ThereportdiscussesindetailthemajorWesternBasinsandrelevantpredictions.Italsoprovidesanumberofgreatvisuals.Inmylimitedresearch,thisisthebestresourceavailable.8.UniversityofNevada,LasVegasInstitutionalRepository–variousgovernmentreportsrelatedtowaterintheMountainWestregion,1945‐2009.http://digitalcommons.library.unlv.edu/water_pubs/9.UtahDepartmentofEnvironmentalQuality:ClimateChangeWorkGroup.TheDivisionofAirQualityreceivedagrantfromtheHewlettFoundationtohelpdevelopspecificpolicyandprogramoptionstodocumentandreducegreenhousegasemissionsinUtah.ThegrantwillhelpsupportastakeholderworkgroupthathasbeenestablishedandprovidesanalyticalsupporttotheGovernor’sBlueRibbonCouncilonClimateChange.TheworkgroupalsoassiststheCouncilinidentifyingpolicyandprogramoptions.http://www.deq.utah.gov/Issues/Climate_Change/index.htm10.”WateravailabilityfortheWesternUnitedStates—Keyscientificchallenges:U.S.GeologicalSurveyCircular1261”Anderson,MarkT.,andWoosley,LloydH.,Jr.,2005,85p.IntheWesternUnitedStates,theavailabilityofwaterhasbecomeaseriousconcernformanycommunitiesandruralareas.Nearpopulationcenters,surface‐watersuppliesarefullyappropriated,andmanycommunitiesaredependentupongroundwaterdrawnfromstorage,whichisanunsustainablestrategy.http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2005/circ1261/11.“Water,GrowthandSustainability:Planningforthe21stCentury,”Eluid Martinez, WaterIssuesintheWest.December2000.NewMexicoWaterResourcesResearchInstitute.http://wrri.nmsu.edu/publish/watcon/proc45/martinez.pdf

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12."West‐WideClimateRiskAssessments:Bias‐CorrectedandSpatiallyDownscaled"SurfaceWaterProjectionsDiscussesthetechnicalaspectsofmodelingpredictions.Thisdiscussionisveryinformativeifthereaderisinterestedinlearningsuchmethodologies.ThereportalsoprovidestheevidenceusedintheSECUREwaterreportlistedaboveandarangeofvisualaids.http://www.usbr.gov/WaterSMART/wwcra.html13.U.S.DepartmentoftheInterior,BureauofReclamation:ManagingwaterintheWest.http://www.usbr.gov/14.EPAClimatewebsite:Climateeconomics,Regulatoryinitiativesforgreenhousegasemissions,U.S.climatepolicy,andmore.http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/

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Reports&Studies1.“ClimateChangeandItsImplicationsforNewMexico’sWaterResourcesandEconomicOpportunities,”TechnicalReport45.BrianH.HurdandJulieCoonrod.NewMexicoStateUniversity,LasCruces,NewMexico,August,2008.Social,economicandenvironmentalsystemsinwater‐scarceNewMexicoandthroughoutthearidsouthwestarevulnerabletodisruptionsinwatersuppliesthatarelikelytoaccompanyfutureclimatechanges.WithaparticularfocusonpotentialeconomicconsequencesforNewMexico,thisstudyusesahydro‐economicmodeloftheRioGrandewatershedtointegrateplausiblechangesinclimatewithhydrologicresponsesandwaterdemandswithinaframeworkthatoptimizeswater‐useallocationsforthegreatesteconomicbenefit.Thestudyusesthreeclimatechangescenariosacrosstwofuturetimeperiodsselectedtorepresenttherangeofeffectsindicatedbytheoutputsacrosseighteenglobalclimatemodels(GCMs)usingtheSRESA1Bemissionsscenario.ThesesixclimatechangescenarioswerethenusedtomodelrunoffchangesusingtheWATBALhy‐drologicmodel(Yates,1996),whichintegratesclimateandhydrologicvariables,andtochangewaterdemandparametersinthehydro‐economicmodel.Primaryfind‐ingsconfirmthatecosystemsareatgreatestriskinNewMexico,followedbyagriculturalwaterusers,aswaterisincreasinglytransferredtomaintainurbanandindustrialusers,whoseeconomicproductivityisgreater.Whiletotalannualeconomiclossesareestimatedinthevicin‐ityof$300million,undersevereclimatechanges,whererunoffisreducedbynearly30%,botheconomicandnon‐economiclossesarelikelytobesignificantlyhigher.Thisisdueprimarilytotheeffectsofsomestronglyoptimisticmodelassumptions,e.g.,assumingnocon‐flictsoverwaterrightsorwatertransfersandtoseveralsignificantandvaluableomissionsintheanalysis,e.g.,theenvironmentalandsocialservicesthatagricultureandtheenvironmentprovide.http://www.law.arizona.edu/adaptationconference/PDFs/HurdCoonrodTR45.pdf2."ClimateChangeandUtah:TheScientificConsensus,"BlueRibbonAdvisoryCouncilonClimateChange(BRAC),SaltLakeCity,Utah,September2007.AsdirectedbyGovernorJonHuntsman’sBlueRibbonAdvisoryCouncilonClimateChange(BRAC),thisreportsummarizespresentscientificunderstandingofclimatechangeanditspotentialimpactsonUtahandthewesternUnitedStates.PreparedbyscientistsfromtheUniversityofUtah,UtahStateUniversity,BrighamYoungUniversity,andtheUnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture,thereportemphasizestheconsensusviewofthenationalandinternationalscientificcommunity,withdiscussionofconfidenceanduncertaintyasdefinedbytheBRAC.http://www.deq.utah.gov/BRAC_Climate/docs/Final_Report/Sec‐A‐1_SCIENCE_REPORT.pdf3.“EconomicImpactsofClimateChangeonColorado,”July2008.AReviewandAssessmentConductedbytheCenterforIntegrativeEnvironmentalResearch,UniversityofMaryland.Policymakersacrossthecountryarenowseekingsolutionstocurbgreenhousegasemissionsandtohelpusadapttotheimpendingimpactstriggeredbypastemissions.Thedebatetodatehasprimarilyfocusedontheperceivedcostsofalternativesolutions,yettherecanalsobesignificantcostsofinaction.Climatechangewillaffectourwater,energy,transportation,andpublichealthsystems,aswell

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asstateeconomiesasclimatechangeimpactawiderangeofimportanteconomicsectorsfromagriculturetomanufacturingtotourism.Thisreport,partofaseriesofstatestudies,highlightstheeconomicimpactsofclimatechangeinColoradoandprovidesexamplesofadditionalrippleeffectssuchasreducedspending inothersectorsandresultinglossesofjobs,wages,andeventaxrevenues.http://www.cier.umd.edu/climateadaptation/Colorado%20Economic%20Impacts%20of%20Climate%20Change.pdf4.“EconomicImpactsofClimateChangeonNevada,”July2008.AReviewandAssessmentConductedbytheCenterforIntegrativeEnvironmentalResearch,UniversityofMaryland.Policymakersacrossthecountryarenowseekingsolutionstocurbgreenhousegasemissionsandtohelpusadapttotheimpendingimpactstriggeredbypastemissions.Thedebatetodatehasprimarilyfocusedontheperceivedcostsofalternativesolutions,yettherecanalsobesignificantcostsofinaction.Climatechangewillaffectourwater,energy,transportation,andpublichealthsystems,aswellasstateeconomiesasclimatechangeimpactawiderangeofimportanteconomicsectorsfromagriculturetomanufacturingtotourism.Thisreport,partofaseriesofstatestudies,highlightstheeconomicimpactsofclimatechangeinNevadaandprovidesexamplesofadditionalrippleeffectssuchasreducedspendinginothersectorsandresultinglossesofjobs,wages,andeventaxrevenues.http://www.cier.umd.edu/climateadaptation/Nevada%20Economic%20Impacts%20of%20Climate%20Change.pdf5.“GrowthandSustainabilityintheLasVegasValley”SonoranInstitute,Tucson,AZ,January2010.http://climatechange.education.unlv.edu/sites/default/files/FinalLasVegasReport12‐17‐09lores.pdf6.LeagueofWomenVotersofUtahWaterStudy,September2009.In2008theLeagueofWomenVotersofUtahdecidedtodoastudyofUtahwatersothatwecouldbetteradvocateforourmembers’deepconcernsaboutwaterforpeopleandwaterfortheenvironment.Thispaperisconcernedwithaccountingforourwaterandhowwemanageit,notwithwaterqualityeitherforhumanusesorforwildlife.http://www.lwvutah.org/AirWaterIssues/lwvutWaterStudy_10‐10‐19.pdf

7.“TheLastDrop:ClimateChangeandtheSouthwesternWaterCrisis”FrankAckermanandElizabethA.Stanton,StockholmEnvironmentInstitute(SEI)–U.S.Center,Sommerville,MA,February,2011.http://sei‐us.org/Publications_PDF/SEI‐WesternWater‐0211.pdf8.Nevada:2010‐2011PolicyandProgramReport:WaterResources,April2010‐Nevadawaterlaw,charts,etc.http://www.leg.state.nv.us/Division/Research/Publications/.../33‐WR.pdf9.“NevadaInfrastructureforClimateChange:Science,Education,andOutreach”February2009.Thevisionofthisprojectistocreateastatewideinterdisciplinaryprogramthatstimulatestransformativeresearch,education,andoutreachontheeffectsofregionalclimatechangeonecosystemservices(especiallywaterresources)andsupportuseofthisknowledgebypolicymakersandstakeholders.http://www.nevada.edu/epscor/nsf/ertab/aaas/Piechota_Project%20overview.pdf

10.NewMexicoClimateChangeInitiatives:BackgroundInformationonNewMexicoClimateChangeInitiatives(5):Recognizingtheprofoundimplicationsthatglobalwarmingandclimatevariationcould

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haveontheeconomy,environmentandqualityoflifeintheSouthwest,NewMexicoGovernorBillRichardsonsignedexecutiveorder.http://www.nmenv.state.nm.us/cc/

11.Reclamation:ManagingWaterintheWest.SECUREWaterActSection9503(c)–ReclamationClimateChangeandWater2011.U.S.DepartmentoftheInteriorPolicyandAdministrationBureauofReclamationDenver,ColoradoApril2011.http://www.usbr.gov/climate/SECURE/docs/SECUREWaterReport.pdf12.“RenegotiatingUrbanWaterManagementinFlagstaff,Arizona:OriginsandImplicationsofConservationPolicies.KristenE.Reed,Geography&RegionalDevelopment,”UniversityofArizona.Drawingfromarchivaldata,ItracesocioeconomicandbiophysicalfactorsthatledtotheimplementationofconservationmeasuresinFlagstaff,Arizona.Acontentanalysisofcontemporarywaterproblems,theircauses,andpotentialmanagementresponsesinformedbysemi‐structuredinterviewswithkeywaterpolicymakersinthearea,representativesfromcommunityinterestgroups,andscientistsindicatesthatmorethanthreetimesasmanyinformants,includingthosewithhistoricallyopposingviewpoints,preferconservationmeasuresoversupplyaugmentationpolicies.http://www.usbr.gov/lc/.../09_CL1‐04ThesisFlagstaffH20Mngmnt.pdf13.“MunicipalDeliveriesofColoradoRiverBasinWater:NewReportExamines100CitiesandAgencies,”PacificInstitute.MichaelJ.Cohen,June2011.ThePacificInstituteisoneoftheworld’sleadingindependentnonprofitsconductingresearchandeducationtocreateahealthierplanetandsustainablecommunitiesdocumentspopulationandwaterdeliveryinformationandtrendsfor100citiesandagenciesthatdeliverwaterfromtheColoradoRiverbasin.Since1990,thenumberofpeopleintheUnitedStatesandMexicowhouseColoradoRiverbasinwaterhasincreasedbymorethan10million‐–buttheiroverallpercapitawaterusedeclinedbyanaverageofatleastonepercentperyearfrom1990to2008.http://www.pacinst.org/reports/co_river_municipal_deliveries/crb_water_8_21_2011.pdfAspreadsheetofdatacompiling water use and population data and calculating per capita use rates. It also lists the sources for the data used in this report: http://www.pacinst.org/reports/co_river_municipal_deliveries/

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SecondarySources:NewspaperArticles1.“ClimatechangetohitAmericanWestwatersupply.”AlertNet(Reuters)25April2011ClimatechangecouldcutwaterflowinsomeoftheAmericanWest'sbiggestriverbasins—includingtheRioGrandeandtheColorado—byupto20percentthiscentury,theInteriorDepartmentreportedonMonday.“Irrigation,drinkingwatertobeaffectedby2100…Driestareasarealsosomeofmostheavilypopulated…InteriorDepartmentcallsforconservation,efficiency.”http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/climate‐change‐to‐hit‐american‐west‐water‐supply2."No,thesnowdoesnotdisproveglobalwarming"EzraKlein.TheWashingtonPost,February10,2010.“Intheaggregate,Earth'satmosphereisgettingwarmer.Butthataffectsparticularclimatesindifferentways.What'sdifficultaboutgettingittosnowisn'ttemperature,butprecipitation.Andglobalwarmingisexpectedtoincreaseprecipitation.”http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra‐klein/2010/02/no_the_snow_does_not_disprove.html3.“QuenchingLasVegasThirst”PhoebeSweet.LasVegasSun.WithexpectedchangesinclimateandnochangeinwaterusageLakeMeadcouldrundryby2021.http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/topics/water/4.“Report:ClimatechangetosapUtahwatersupply”UtahNews.TheSaltLakeTribune.April25,2011.TheColoradoRiverBasinlikelywillloseabout9percentofitsannualrunoffbymid‐centurybecauseofawarmingclimate,furthersqueezingUtahanditsneighborsinaregionthatalreadyexpectstostrugglegettingwatertoitsgrowingpopulation,accordingtoaU.S.InteriorDepartmentreportreleasedMonday.http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politics/51690000‐90/report‐colorado‐river‐climate.html.csp5."TheFutureIsDryingUp"JonGertner.TheNewYorkTimes,October21,2007.http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/21/magazine/21water‐t.html?pagewanted=print“ThesnowpackintheSierraNevada,whichprovidesmostofthewaterforNorthernCalifornia,wasatitslowestlevelin20years.Chunotedthateventhemostoptimisticclimatemodelsforthesecondhalfofthiscenturysuggestthat30to70percentofthesnowpackwilldisappear.AcatastrophicreductionintheflowoftheColoradoRiver—whichmostlyconsistsofsnowmeltfromtheRockyMountains—hasalwaysservedasakindofthoughtexperimentforwaterengineers,arisksituationfromtheouteredgeoftheirpracticalimaginations.Some30millionpeopledependonthatwater.Agreatlyreducedriverwouldwreakchaosinsevenstates:Colorado,Utah,Wyoming,NewMexico,Arizona,NevadaandCalifornia.Almostwithoutexception,recentclimatemodelsenvisionreductionsthatrangefromthemodesttothecatastrophicbythesecondhalfofthiscentury.Onestudyinparticular,byMartinHoerlingandJonEischeid,suggeststheregionisalready“pastpeakwater,”amilestonethatmeanstheriver’swatersupplywillnowforevertrenddownward.”Theauthorcontinueswithadiscussionofeconomicimpacts,includingmassout‐migration,ofwatershortages.6."SteadyState:ASustainableEconomyfortheSouthwest"StevenKotler.Ecohearth,July2,2010.“WesternstatesrelyontheColoradoRiver,buttheriverisnolongerviable.Lastyear,astudydoneattheScrippsInstitutionofOceanography(publishedinWaterResourcesResearch)comparedwaterusage

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topopulation,thenfactoredinavarietyofglobal‐warmingpossibilities.Itconcludedthereisnowa50‐50chancebothLakeMeadandLakePowell—theColorado’smajorfeeders—willbebonedryby2021.Andsincetheentirearearunsonhydroelectricpower,thestudyalsofoundthatthisenergytapcouldbeturnedoffby2017.”http://ecohearth.com/eco‐op‐ed/482‐steady‐state‐a‐sustainable‐economy‐for‐the‐southwest.html7.“ColoradoRiverwaterpolicyfacesanageoflimits”TheSaltLakeTribune:April20,2010Climatescientistsarepredictinga10‐to‐30percentreductioninflowfortheColorado—astarkcontrasttotherosyassumptionsthatunderlaytheColoradoRiverCompactwhenitwassigned88yearsago.ResearchersfromtheScrippsInstitutionofOceanographyrecentlypredictedthatLakeMeadandLakePowellhavea50percentchanceofgoingdryby2021.Thesedays,LakeMeadisat45percentcapacityandLakePowellisat57percent.http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/ci_14921852