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Resources mobilization for the implementation of the Brussels Programme of Action:
The Experiences of Timor-Leste
ECOSOC High-Level Segment Preparatory Meeting New York, 17-18 March 2004
Presented by:Aicha Bassarewan, Vice Minister of Planning & Finance, RDTLHaoliang Xu, Senior Deputy Resident Representative, UNDP
1
Timor-Leste was formally recognised as LDC in December 2003 (GA/10221)
SOUTHEAST ASIA MAP
2
TIMOR-LESTE MAP
3
Demography• Population: 794,298 (estimate 2001)• 76% rural (as % of total)• Annual population growth rate: 0.90%
(1999-2001)• Population under 15 years old: 44%
(estimate 2001)• Dependency ratio: 82% (2001)• Fertility rate (children/woman): 7.1
(estimate 2002)
Life expectancy and Mortality • Life expectancy at birth - Male: 55.6 years;
female: 59.2 years (2001)• Infant mortality rate/1,000 live births: 80.1
(2001)• Under-5 mortality rate/1,000 live births:
143.5 (2001)• Maternal mortality rate/100,000 live births:
420 (1999)
Poverty• Population below US$1-a-day: 20% • Population below national poverty line:
41%
Inequality• Gini index: 37%
Education• Adult literacy rate (as % of those aged 15
and over): 43% (estimate 2001) • Net enrolment ratio (primary education):
76%
Infrastructure• Access to improved water source: 50%• Access to piped or pump water: 42%
Economy• GDP: US$389m (estimate 2001)• GDP per capita: US$478 (estimate 2001)
Source:UNDP National HumanDevelopment Report
KEY FIGURES
4
Emergency relief, rehabilitation & reconstruction
Transition Medium to long-termdevelopment
Popular consultation followed by
violence
Election of Constituent Assembly
Restoration of independenceETTA ETPA
UNMISET consolida-
tionphase?
UNAMETINTERFET followed
by UNTAET
UNMISET
End of UNMISET mandate?
LisbonDonor C.
Tokyo Donor C.
Canberra Donor C.
Oslo Donor C.
Brussels Donor C.
Dili Donor C.
TLDPM TLDPM TLDPM
MDG Workshop
MDG Report
Joint Assess-mentMission
TSP I TSP II TSP III
Substantial oil revenue expected to come inCreation of
FDTL & PNTL
National Development Plan
Road Map SIPs
Vision 2020
CNRT Tibar conference NDP II
KEY MILESTONES OF TIMOR-LESTE FROM 1999
20021999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
5
Bilateral and Multilateral
Support
CFETTSPTFET
Direct services to communities
from NGOs
United Nations Assessed
Contributions
Funding
National Development Plan
(NDP)
Timor-LesteVision 2020 MDGs
Government Ministries and
Secretaries of State
Non-Governmental Organizations &
Civil Society
Private Sector and Business Groups
Implementation
Bilateral and Multilateral Donors
NATIONAL PLANNING FRAMEWORK
Prioritising &Sequencing
Donor Country Assistance Strategy (CAS)
Annual Action PlansQuarterly Review Matrices
Annual Budget
Planning & Budget
Medium-Term Fiscal Framework
6
The state will be based on the rule of law.
The economy and finances of the state will be managed efficiently, transparently, and will be free from corruption, and
Living standards and services will improve for all East Timorese, and income will be fairly and equally distributed,
Production and employment will increase in all sectors,
They will actively participate in economic, social and political development, promoting social equality, nationalism and unity,
People will be literate, skilled, healthy and live a long and productive life,
Timor-Leste will be a democratic and prosperous society with adequate food, shelter and clothing for all people and a sustainable environment,
Vision 2020
Millennium Declaration (Good Governance)
Millennium Declaration (Good Governance)
GOAL 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
GOAL 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
GOAL 3: Promote gender equality and empower women
GOAL 2: Achieve universal primary educationGOAL 4: Reduce child mortalityGOAL 5: Improve maternal healthGOAL 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
GOAL 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerGOAL 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
MDG
TIMOR-LESTE VISION 2020 & MDGs
7
• Significant amount of resources have been provided
• Humanitarian assistance has been phased out
INTERNATIOAL FINANCIAL SUPPORT 1999-2003
8
INTERNATIOAL FINANCIAL SUPPORT 1999-2003
Source: The Government of Timor-Leste
99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03
US$ Million
Other donor support
Committed funds
TFETCFET & Related
99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03
Expenditure
196202 208
179
142
205 221
188
Development and TAHumanitarian/EmergencyBudgetary support
9
Emergency relief & food security
16
Programme & Budget Support
14
Governance, Civil Service,
Capacity19
Environment natural resources
0Private sector & business
4Water & sanitation
6Basic
infrastructure9
Education & training
9
Agriculture & Rural
Development10
Health Care9
Agency fees2
Other social2
INTERNATIOAL FINANCIAL SUPPORT 1999-2003100%= US$ 757 million%
Source: The Government of Timor-Leste
10
• Following the initial rehabilitation phase, external assistance is decreasing
• High population growth rate, requiring increasing government spending
• Low agricultural productivity and limited tax base
• Timor-Leste expects sizeable oil income, but the IMF estimates that the present value of Timor Sea revenue sustains annual expenditure of USD 55 million
• Substantial oil revenues from Timor Sea are estimated to start by 2007, some 3 years later than expected initially
• Therefore, the medium outlook is particularly difficult
REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE PROJECTION
11
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
MEDIUM TERM REVENUE AND RESOURCE REQUIREMENTSUS$ Million
02/03 03/04 04/05 06/0705/06
Other donor fundingTFETTSPTimor Sea Tax RevenueDomestic revenue & reserves
Resource requirement (as per Road Map)
Funding gap
Source: The Government of Timor-Leste
12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2002
/0320
03/04
2004
/0520
05/06
2006
/0720
07/08
2008
/0920
09/10
2010
/1120
11/12
2012
/1320
13/14
2014
/1520
15/16
2016
/1720
17/18
2018
/1920
19/20
2020
/2120
21/22
2022
/2320
23/24
NDP2007
BPOA2010
MDG2015
Vision2020
LONG TERM REVENUE AND RESOURCE REQUIREMENTSUS$ Million
Sustainable use of oil revenue(IMF estimates)
Total funding requirement
Plus other domestic revenue
Funding gap
Oil revenue
13
• Even if Timor-Leste decides to borrow, the amount of concessional loans it can borrow from multilateral sources is extremely limited
• Timor-Leste is a small island country and vulnerable to exogenous shocks (trade, natural causes)
• Without continued and adequate external support, the past investment of the international community may be at stack
• Goal 8 of the Millennium Development Goals
REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE PROJECTION
14
7. Mobilizing financial resources
6. Reducing vulnerability and protecting the environment
5. Enhancing the role of trade in development
4. Building productive capacities to make globalization work for LDCs
3. Building human and institutional capacities
2. Good governance at national and international levels
1. Fostering a people-centred policy framework
Commitments
Domestic revenue and fee based services, Aid coordination -TSP, SIPs, IDA grants, bilateral and multilateral support, FDI potential
UNCCD signed, first GEF project, large water management programme started, capacity for environmental governance, rural energy and resource management a key, NDMO
ACP/Cotonou agreement signed May 2003, South-West Pacific Dialogue, Pacific Islands Forum (permanent official observer), Seeking observer status at ASEAN, ASYCUDA
Massive rehabilitation and restoration of infrastructures but still facing daunting challenges, telecom network in place, private sector development still a challenge, agriculture a key
Adequate percentage of resources for primary education and basic health care, limit on spending for universities and hospitals, immunisation, vocational training, Census 2004
Civil Service Act, Office for Promotion of Equality, Office of the Inspector General, Human Rights Unit, Provedor, Justice Sector and Parliament Support programmes
Country-wide consultation that resulted in Vision 2020 and NDP process, Poverty Assessment & public dissemination, MDG report, strong aid coordination effort and database
Achievements / Opportunities
TIMOR-LESTE AND BRUSSELS PROGRAMME OF ACTION
15
With the continued support of the international community,Timor-Leste can and will achieve itsdevelopment goals.
Thanks you!