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#nhsworkforcesupply
www.nhsemployers.org/workforcesupply
# nhsworkforcesupply
@NHSE_Ruth
# nhsworkforcesupply
Rethinking workforce planning for the future
Dr. Graham WillisHead of Research and Development, CfWIE: [email protected]: +44(0)78 1234 0405
Many years ago…
How many trained hospital doctors will we have by 2040?
Cost
How many do we need?
Do we trust this?
Trai
ne
d h
osp
ital
do
cto
rs
(th
ou
san
ds)
60
50
40
30
Year2014 2040
Supply
Demand
?
Policy
What if the future is not what we expect?
Failure
Megatrends
ProblemSystem
Events
Consider many futures…
Expected future
Use plausible, challenging and consistent futures to test policies
Robust workforce planning
Understand the system
Explore the future
Simulate the possibilities
Make robust decisions
Focal question
Transparent and participatory
Horizon scanning
Context
Issues
Factors
Events
Ideas bank System mapping
Scenario generationStakeholder workshops
Influencing factors
Keyfactors
Consistency check
Narrative scenarios
Quantified scenarios
Modeling and simulation
Demand side
OutputsSupply
side
Pharmacy exampleScenarios
Scenario 1Narrower
Scenario 2Internet-driven
Scenario 3Broader
Pharmacists role
Enabling technology
Projection 1
Projection 2 Scenario 4e-Pharmacy
Nu
mb
er
of
ph
arm
acis
ts (
full-
tim
e e
qu
ival
en
t)
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
20
40
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
20
40
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
02
01
2
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
20
40
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
20
40
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Year
Scenario 1
Scenario 3
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Pharmacy exampleHow uncertain is the future?
Pharmacy examplePolicy options
20%
35%
50%
5%10%
15%
A B C D E F
3%
One-off supply reduction Phased supply reduction
5 Years 10 Years
Po
licy
ou
tco
me
s
Pharmacy examplePolicy analysis
2
31
4
Policy options: A
B
C
D
E
F
Key points
What if the future is not what we expect?
Consider many futures Transparent and participatory approach
Four embarrassing admissions...
One
Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.
Two
Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.We don’t know what skills and competences are needed in future.
Three
Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.We don’t know what skills and competences are needed in future.We don’t know who is best to provide them.
Four
Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.We don’t know what skills and competences are needed in future.We don’t know who is best to provide them.We don’t know what drives demand.
What about the rest of the system?
HealthPublic healthSocial care
2%
98%Workforces not yet
modelled
Workforces modelled to date
What about the rest of the system?
HealthPublic healthSocial care
10% Other health and support
21% Paid adult care and support
24%
Volunteer adult care and support
43%
Unpaid adult care and support
2% Workforces modelled to date
Not just workforce numbersWhat skills and competences are needed?
Competences
Skills
FacilitationLeadershipWellbeing
Knowledge Personal
Types of skill
Level of skill
Quantitative skills
Qualitative skills
What drives the demand for skills?
Demand for skills
Long-termconditions
Infectiousdiseases
Population
One-offevents
What drives the supply of skills?
Supply of skills
Skill mix
Education &training
Workforcesupply
Capacityto learn
A new challenge: Horizon 2035
What skills and competences do we have?
What might we need in future?
Understand who has what skills, the time spent on them and the cost
Prevent
Enable
Assess
Plan
Treat
Rehabilitate
Relieve
Link
Unpaid adult social care workforce
Nurses
Dentists
Medical generalists
Medical specialists
Volunteer care and support workforce
Other workforce groups
Workforce groups
Po
pu
lati
on
Learning disabilities
Oral health
Singular demand for service
Maternal and perinatal
Infectious disease
Mental long-term conditions
Physical long-term conditions
Understand how the population drives the demand for skills, the proportions and costs
Understand how demand is met by your workforce today
Understand which workforce groups deliver what skills to meet demand.How might demand change in future?What are the workforce pressures?
Po
pu
lati
on
Learning disabilities
Oral health
Singular demand for service
Maternal and perinatal
Infectious disease
Mental long-term conditions
Physical long-term conditions
Skill level: 1 2 3 4 5
Understand how workforce skills meet the demands of the population
Prevent
Enable
Assess
Plan
Treat
Rehabilitate
Relieve
Link
Unpaid adult social care workforce
Nurses
Dentists
Medical generalists
Medical specialists
Volunteer care and support workforce
Other workforce groups
Workforce groups Increasing concentration and experience
Future demand for skills
Different futures
Drivers of future demand
Future skill levels
More information
Horizon 2035 Future demand for skills: Initial results
http://www.cfwi.org.uk/publications/horizon-2035-future-demand-for-skills-initial-results
Barriers and enablers for effective workforce supply
Barriers and enablers
Table exerciseToday and in the futureKeep answers shortAs many as possible in 10 minutesBest ones first – no repetition!
What next?
Your chance to voteImportanceDot votingFeedback at close
tRethinking workforce planning for the future
Dr. Graham WillisHead of Research and Development, CfWIE: [email protected]: +44(0)78 1234 0405
# nhsworkforcesupply
# nhsworkforcesupply
Workforce Innovation
The Holistic Worker model
Background – Nottingham City
• 39, 200 over 65’s • 18,200 of these were living with one or more Long Term Conditions.• 11,182 admissions over 65 and out of these 7198 had a hospital stay of over 2
days
Urgent Care Service (UCS)
• Health & social care crisis to avoid admission to hospital or to care homes • Facilitate discharge from hospital “front door”• 2hr response time, 48hr intervention time
Challenges we faced
•Lack of clinical capacity•Inter-team referrals•Impact on time, resource and effectiveness•Fear of the unknown •Protectiveness •Lack of understanding of each others roles •Medical model V Social care model •Right care at the right time in the right place
• Team engagement - working differently• Core & Clinically specific competencies• Teaching element from existing skills• Observation in practice• Reflective group work• Review
How we changed
• Skilled, holistic workforce • Reducing the number of times a citizen has to tell
their story• Reducing duplication • Releasing time to care • Raising confidence in a range of health and social care
skills • Providing greater job satisfaction• Lowering barriers and increased sharing • Improving recruitment & retention
What we have learnt
• Urgent care trained• Competency framework redesigned• Band 3• Assessor guide• Internal ratification• Accreditation & training guide• Roll out to Reablement teams• Roll out to neighbourhood & Specialist teams• Creation of a physical and digital sharing platform for model• Evaluation
What are we doing now?
• Relevant to citizen outcome• Workforce and skills shortage• Opening up health sector• Growing our own• Becoming a Provider with learning and
education at its heart• Platform for Integration with social care
The Future
Enough of me
# nhsworkforcesupply
# nhsworkforcesupply
# nhsworkforcesupply
Understanding the
Workforce
How ESR can help
James Haddon
Development Advisor
Agenda
• Overview of ESR
• Understanding the workforce
• Understanding the education and training needs of
your workforce
ESR Overview
• Currently pays approximately 1.4 million employees
• Contains:
– HR & Payroll
– Competency / Skills / Qualifications
– Learning Management
– Occupational Health / Employee Relations
– Business Intelligence
Business Intelligence
• Key to using ESR data to make decisions
• Available to managers and central functions
• Full suite of standard reports provided
Key Questions
• Are staff meeting their requirements?
• Do we have the numbers of staff budgeted for?
• Where are problem areas in the organisation?
• Which training courses will we need to ensure we
have in place and at which times?
Understanding the Workforce
Workforce
Existing Job Capacity
Diversity
Turnover Rate and
Stability
Competencies and Gap Analysis
Performance Ratings
Demonstration
Workforce Profile
Turnover / Stability
Compliance
• Recorded in ESR as ‘Competencies’
• Requirements set centrally
• Managers and Employees see status on learner
homepage
• Compliance Dashboard provides:
– Matching
– Selective Matching
– Expiration Prediction
Selective Competency Matching
Compliance Expiry Timeline
Employee / Manager View
Right to Work
Performance
Performance
Performance
Conclusion: Understanding the Workforce
Workforce
Existing Job Capacity
Diversity
Turnover Rate and
Stability
Competencies and Gap Analysis
Performance Ratings
Conclusion
• Gain visibility into employee workforce
demographics, performance, and progress.
• Managers and Employees have the access to view
reports on their employees and their own
compliance.
• Processes in place to capture data and
requirements
Further Information
• ESR Website : http://www.esr.nhs.uk
– ESR Account Manager
– ESR Transition & Enhance
• Kbase: http://www.esr.nhs.uk/kbase
– Guide to National Dashboards
– Captivates
CWPT Business Intelligence Reporting
BI reports we use frequently
• Appraisal report
• Turnover report
• Training report
Appraisal report benefits:
– Instant results
– Enables exclusion of new starters
– Enables exclusion of open ended sickness
Turnover report benefits:
– Instant results
– Accurate
– Enables exclusion of leaving reasons
Training report benefits:
– Instant results
– Huge time saver due to calculated compliance
– High visual impact due to RAG coding
– Very informative due to inclusion of future bookings
– Simple to understand as based on competencies
Training report pre-requisite:
– Requires competencies to be set up in order to work
• Large project involving identification, mapping and data load
of training needs analysis
• Requires an on-going admin support to sustain data quality
Training report screenshot:
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