New Perspectives for the management of water projects

NEW PERSPECTIVES FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF WATER PROJECTS

Emeline HASSENFORDER Pierre DANIEL

Benjamin NOURY

MODELS AND APPLICATIONS FROM

8 TRANSBOUNDARY PROJECTS

The increasing complexity in the water environment and in water projects strongly questions the effectiveness of traditional water management methods. Classic project management tools do not ensure performance, and the sustainability of water projects is therefore challenged.

This book suggests a new approach for the management of water projects that integrates the principles of sustainability, multidimensionality, measurability, comprehensiveness and unpredictability. These principles are presented in two different parts: firstly, through a scientific approach suggesting a new methodology for the management of water projects and secondly, through pragmatic examples of challenges and key success factors experienced in eight transboundary water projects. Both parts are illustrated by numerous examples drawn from an analysis of eight major water projects in seven transboundary basins: Danube, Tigris and Euphrates, Jordan, Mekong, Guarani Aquifer, Okavango and Nile.This book aims at providing water managers

This book is the result of three years of collaboration between the three authors:

Emeline HASSENFORDER initiated the “Entre Deux Eaux“ research project with Benjamin with whom she subsequently co-founded Oxyo Water. She focuses her research on the sustainability of water projects.

and decision-makers with pragmatic approaches for tackling the complexity of water projects. It is also of interest for project managers involved in complex projects in other domains (agriculture, industry, etc.).

«This publication is a contribution to UNESCO’s PCCP (‘From Potential Conflict to Cooperation Potential’) programme, and enjoys the support of this programme. PCCP is an associated programme of the IHP (International Hydrological Programme) and the WWAP (World Water Assessment Programme) which are the two pillars of UNESCO’s Division of Water Sciences.»

Pierre DANIEL is a professor at SKEMA Business School. He is the founder of the Development Modeling® Methodology. He holds a PhD in management science and focuses his research in the domain of complex projects.

Benjamin NOURY is at the origin of “Entre Deux Eaux“ and Oxyo Water with Emeline. He works as a consultant and trainer on the management of water projects.

NEW

PERSPECTIVES FO

R THE M

AN

AG

EMEN

T OF W

ATER PROJECTS

Models and applications from

8 transboundary projects

E. HA

SSENFO

RDER

P. DA

NIEL

B. NO

URY

ISBN 978-2-9538141-0-130€

COUVERTURE FINALE.indd 1 9/02/12 23:30:53

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Models and applications from 8 transboundary projects


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© 2012 by Emeline Hassenforder, Pierre Daniel and Benjamin NouryAll right reserved.

ISBN 978-2-9538141-0-1No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher three authors..

This book was printed by a PEFC certified printing company, Imprim Vert, on recycled paper, with vegetable-based ink.

Book printed in France

-----------------------------------------------------------------For information, please contact Oxyo Water – 1 Villa Marceau [email protected]

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Models and applications from 8 transboundary projects

Emeline HASSENFORDEROxyo Water

[email protected]

Pierre DANIEL SKEMA Business School

[email protected]

Benjamin NOURYOxyo Water

[email protected]


6

This book is the result of three years of collaboration between the three authors: Pierre Daniel, Professor at SKEMA Business School and founder of the Develop-ment Modeling® Methodology, and Emeline Hassenforder and Benjamin Noury, founders of Oxyo Water.

Oxyo WaterCenter of expertise specialized in the

strategic management of transboundary water projects

Oxyo Water is born out of a research project called Entre Deux Eaux which aim was to analyze the management of eight cooperation water projects in seven transboundary basins across the world: Danube, Tigris & Euphrates, Jordan River, Mekong, Guarani Aquifer, Okavango and Nile. The analysis of those projects revealed that the sustainability of the efforts undertaken depended on good governance and integrated management.

Based on this acknowledgement, Oxyo Water was created as a center of expertise specialized in the strategic management of complex water projects. Its team works closely with decision-makers and water managers towards a sustainable and integrated management of their complex projects. Oxyo Water’s activities focus on two types of projects that are particularly complex to manage: transboundary waters and international cooperation. Its four core activities are interconnected and complementary:

• Guidance• Research and Development• Trainings• Conferences

Development Modeling®Strategic analysis and management of

complexity in major projects

Project directors, steering committees, international investors and research engineers have to better visualize the complexity present in major projects. This complexity is a source of strong uncertainty and lack of performance. These stakeholders have to make joint decisions based on a clearer vision. They are always trying to understand better the project key objectives, people, results and all the linkages between these critical parameters.

The innovation, instability and uncertainty that are sources of complexity in projects compel decision-makers and project managers to open discussions on “how to manage” situations with high degrees of uncertainty. Basically, classic “Project Management” approaches focus on project delivering, resources monitoring and time controlling. Situations of high complexity emphasize the importance of applying alternative ways of analyzing, designing and controlling the project life cycle focusing on its long term performance. One of the challenges that complexity brings to the domain of Strategic Project Management is the necessity to visualize complexity in the project, to highlight uncertainty and to build strategies of experimentation necessary to generate the optimal long-term performance of major projects.

www.oxyo-water.com www.developmentmodeling.org

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors would like to thank all the 273 interviewees who accepted to share their experience on the eight transboundary water projects that were analyzed. These interviews provided the basis for this publication.

We express our gratitude to Philippe Laruelle and Allie Wrixon who proofread this English language version. Gratitude is also expressed to the people who kindly reviewed the first five case studies:

Special thanks are due to Olivier Berut and Stephane Straccialano from La Guilde des Créateurs de Mondes who published this book; to Lena Salame and Marguerite de Chaisemartin from the Unesco PCCP Programme and to Nathalie Berthelier and Aude Mottiaux, both from the 6th World Water Forum Secretariat.

We also express our gratitude to Veronique Verdeil, Maximilien Rouer, Julie Trottier, Jean Margat, Alexandre Guinet and Carole Daniel who trusted and supported this project from the very beginning. Special thanks are due to Amélie Noury for the layout of the document.

Financial support has been provided by the French Artois Picardie Water Agency, Skema Business School, Columbia and the Rotary International.

All opinions expressed in this book belong to its authors and might differ from the views of the Unesco PCCP Programme, the 6th World Water Forum Secretariat or our funders.

Guarani

NileMekong Okavango

Danube

Lilian del Castillo Laborde, Adriano Silva Fernandes, Jorge Santa Cruz, Luis Araguas, Karina Kemper and Gerhard Schmidt,Jane Kisakye,Douangkham Singhanouvong, David Blake, Louis Lebel and Bruce Paxton,Map Yves, Dudley Biggs, Piet S. VH. Heyns, Dorothy Wamunyima, Christian Graefen, Monica Morrison, Ebenizario Chonguica, Ntlotlang Osman, Felix Monggae, Baboloki Autlwetse, Sekgowa Motsumi and Katarina Perrolf,Benedikt Mandl, Philip Weller, Galia Bardarska, Liviu Popescu and Orieta Hulea.


8

ACRONYMS

DRP Danube Regional ProjectERP Every River Has Its People ProjectGAP Southeastern Anatolia ProjectGAS Guarani Aquifer System ProjectGEF Global Environment FacilityGWN Good Water NeighborsICPDR International Commission for the Protection of the Danube RiverMRC Mekong River CommissionNTEAP Nile Transboundary Environmental Action ProjectNBI Nile Basin InitiativeOAS Organization of American StatesOKACOM Okavango Basin CommissionSida Swedish International Development Cooperation AgencyUNDP United Nations Development ProgrammeUNOPS United Nations Office for Project Services

9

CONTENTS

PREFACE - WHY PRODUCE A BOOK ON THE MANAGEMENT OF COMPLEX WATER PROJECTS

PRESENTATION OF THE EIGHT TRANSBOUNDARY WATER PROJECTS STUDIED

INTRODUCTION - THE NEED FOR A NEW MANAGEMENT MODE FOR COMPLEX WATER PROJECTS

OVERVIEW OF THE APPROACH

PART 1. TOWARDS A NEW METHODOLOGY FOR WATER PROJECTS

CHAPTER 1 PROJECT VISIONFROM TODAY'S PROBLEMS TO TOMORROW'S SOLUTIONS

1.1 THE PROJECT GOAL 1.2 DIMENSIONS AND OBJECTIVES 1.3 FINAL DELIVERABLES

CHAPTER 2 PROJECT IMPLEMENTATIONTHE LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE DEPENDS ON UNCERTAINTIES DURING THE PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION

2.1 INTERMEDIARY DELIVERABLES 2.2 STAKEHOLDERS 2.3 RISKS

CHAPTER 3 PROJECT ORGANIZATIONMANAGING NETWORKS OF INFLUENCE IS A KEY FOR THE PROJECT SUCCESS

3.1 CRITICAL STAKEHOLDERS 3.2 INTERMEDIARY STAKEHOLDERS 3.3 PROJECT TEAM MEMBERS

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85

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93

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PART 2. PRAGMATIC EXAMPLES OF CHALLENGES AND KEY SUCCESS FACTORS EXPERIENCED IN EIGHT TRANSBOUNDARY WATER PROJECTS

CHAPTER 1 PUBLIC PARTICIPATION 1.1 BENEFITS OF PUBLIC PARTICIPATION 1.2 CHALLENGES & DIFFICULTIES 1.3 KEY SUCCESS FACTORS OF PARTICIPATORY PROCESSES

CHAPTER 2 DUPLICABILITY AND SUSTAINABILITY OF LOCAL ACTIVITIES 2.1 DEFINITION OF LOCAL ACTIVITIES 2.2 CHALLENGES & DIFFICULTIES 2.3 KEY SUCCESS FACTORS OF DUPLICABLE AND SUSTAINABLE LOCAL ACTIVITIES

CHAPTER 3 FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY 3.1 WHY FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY IS OF PRIMARY IMPORTANCE 3.2 CHALLENGES & DIFFICULTIES 3.3 KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR THE FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY OF COMPLEX WATER PROJECTS

CHAPTER 4 DATA EXCHANGE AND TRANSPARENCY 4.1 BENEFITS OF DATA EXCHANGE AND TRANSPARENCY 4.2 CHALLENGES & DIFFICULTIES 4.3 KEY SUCCESS FACTORS OF DATA EXCHANGE AND TRANSPARENCY

CONCLUSION AND MAIN PRINCIPLES

LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES

REFERENCES 183

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PREFACE

PREFACEWhy produce a book on the management of complex water projects

Water evolves in an increasingly complex environment. River basins face growing uncertainty, variability and interdependencies. In the face of these emerging challenges, traditional approaches to water management are inappropriate. There is widespread acknowledgement of the need to shift to a new mode of water resources management. This need encompasses two aspects of water management: operations management which deals with everyday management of the resource (including quantity and quality monitoring, infrastructure management and administrative functions) and project management related to temporary water development activities (infrastructure construction, micro-grants, information system, etc.). Current project management techniques have been used for decades in order to plan and control water projects. These methods are now being questioned and challenged over their capacity to ensure that complex projects perform effectively and sustainably.

Projects are a transition between a current regime and a desired future regime. In that sense, they are a way to shift to a new, more adaptive, management mode. But they are also weighted with a level of complexity that is inherent in projects, which makes their management requirements different from those of routine operations. There is, above all, a need for a new method of project management regarding complex water projects if a shift in water management is to be achieved.

The guidelines presented in this book describe a pragmatic approach to complex water projects management that integrates essential principles of the new water management paradigm: adaptive, integrated, systemic, participatory and multidisciplinary approaches. It leads to an improved performance and sustainability of the actions undertaken.

STRUCTURE OF THE BOOK

This book is divided into 2 main parts: • Part 1: Towards a new methodology for water projects • Part 2:

A preliminary introduction explains the need for a new management mode for complex water projects. It details the notions of complexity in both the water environment and water projects, illustrates why traditional approaches prove inappropriate and describes the principles of a new approach: the Development Modeling® methodology.

Pragmatic examples of challenges and key success factors experienced in eight transboundary water projects.


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The first part comprises a set of methods and tools developed in the context of this new methodology. Chapter 1 focuses on project vision (goal, objectives and final deliverables) and provides recommendations towards comprehensiveness and coherence. Chapter 2 focuses on project implementation: interconnectedness of final deliverables, identification of stakeholders involved in their realization and description of the risks that can occur during the life cycle of the project. Chapter 3 concentrates on project organization providing insights on how project teams maintain direct or indirect influence on critical stakeholders. Examples are provided throughout these first three chapters to illustrate how to use the Development Modeling® methodology in the context of complex water projects.

The second part is based on the analysis of eight major water projects in seven transboundary basins. It introduces four themes that appear to be key for the sustainability of such complex projects. Each theme is organized following the same model: the benefits of tackling this theme, the issues faced by the stakeholders that are related to it and the lessons learned from the analyzed projects. Each theme is presented in one chapter: public participation (chapter 1), duplicability and sustainability of local activities (chapter 2), financial sustainability (chapter 3) and data exchange and transparency (chapter 4).

The drafting of this book was preceded by the undertaking of in-depth preparatory case-studies on eight complex water projects. A synthesis of the projects is presented at the end of this preface. In order to respect the privacy of interviewees, information provided by their source is quoted “Interview XXXX” according to a referential only known by the authors.

WHO SHOULD READ THIS BOOK AND FOR WHAT PURPOSE?

The guidelines introduced in this book are relevant for professionals looking for pragmatic approaches for tackling the complexity, unpredictability and uncertainty of water projects.

While they are particularly relevant for stakeholders involved in complex water projects (water managers and professionals, project teams, national coordinators, river basin commissions, NGOs, ministries concerned with water issues, local authorities, communities, steering committees, and donors), they might also be of interest to project managers involved in complex projects in other domains (agriculture, industry, etc.).

This new approach is provided as a supplement to project management methods already used in complex water projects, such as the logical framework approach, and based on time, cost and quality. It utilizes the same vocabulary and principles,

13

PREFACE

making it easier for water managers to use it. It can be used as a tool to: • Ask the “right” questions about a project and promote debate, • • Comprehend and manage stakeholders’ networks and influences, •

The proposed approach provides guidelines throughout the life cycle of the project: •

•

•

While this new methodology was tested in seven transboundary basins considered to be particularly complex, it could also be used in smaller - but still complex – projects, such as smaller basins which are not necessarily transboundary, sub-basins or basins at a wider scale (regional multi-basin level).

Understand the complexity of project interactions and facilitate decision-making,

Communicate the essential elements of a complex project clearly and succinctly, through concise and practical representations, during the entirety of the life cycle of the project.

Design: to develop the overall vision of the project and make sure that it is comprehensive and coherent. The approach is particularly relevant at this stage of the project. Implementation: to improve project implementation and monitoring and clarify the evolution of the project. What have we done? Where do we stand? Where do we want to go? It can also be used to trace the sources and causes of a particular difficulty. Evaluation and lessons learned: to assess project efficiency, effectiveness, impact and viability and synthesize concisely the challenges and key success factors of the project.


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1 DANUBE DANUBE REGIONAL PROJECT (DRP)The DRP project aimed at reinforcing regional cooperation among Danubian countries. It supported the development of national policies and legislations as well as the definition of priority actions for pollution control in order to ensure common approach to protection of international waters, sustainable management of natural resources and biodiversity. www.undp-drp.org

Duration: Budget: Beneficiary countries:

Donor:Implementing Agency:Executing Agency:

5.5 years (Dec. 2001 – Jun. 2007) US$ 17.24 millionAlbania, Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Switzerland and Ukraine.Global Environment Facility (GEF) United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) through United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS)

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2 TIGRIS & EUPHRATES SOUTHEASTERN ANATOLIA PROJECT (GAP)The GAP had originally been planned in the 70’s consisting of projects for irrigation and hydraulic energy production on the Euphrates and Tigris in the Southeastern Anatolian region in Turkey (construction of 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric power plants). It has been transformed in the 80’s into an integrated development program. It encompasses various sectors such as irrigation, hydraulic energy, agriculture, rural and urban infrastructure, forestry, education and health.www.gap.gov.tr

Duration: Began in 1989, ongoing (estimated end date: 2023) Budget: US$ 32 billionBeneficiary countries: TurkeyImplementing Agency: GAP Regional Development Administration (GAP RDA)Executing Agency: General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works in Turkey (DSI)

3 JORDAN RIVER GOOD WATER NEIGHBORS (GWN)The GWN project was established by EcoPeace / Friends of the Earth Middle East (FoEME) in 2001 to raise awareness of the shared water problems of Palestinians, Jordanians, and Israelis. The project advances dialogue in cross-border communities through educational materials, field visits, eco-parks, memoranda of understanding, etc. www.foeme.org

Duration: Began in 2001, ongoingBudget: Beneficiary countries: Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian TerritoriesDonors:

Implementing and Executing Agency: EcoPeace / Friends of the Earth Middle East (FOEME)

703,729 € (Approximately US$ 750,000) for phase 1 (2001-2005) European SMAP program, United States Government Wye River Program, British Government’s Global Opportunities Fund, European Partnerships For Peace program, Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund, United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Swedish International Development coorperation Agency (Sida) and Belgium’s Peace Building Desk.


16

4 JORDAN RIVER RED SEA - DEAD SEA WATER CONVEYANCE STUDY PROGRAMThe needs to save the unique values of the Dead Sea and to develop additional water resources have led the governments of Israel and Jordan and the Palestinian Authority to conceive the concept of water conveyance from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea as a means to arrest the declining water level of the Dead Sea. In 2005, a program has been launched to study the possible inter-basin transfer and estimate the opportunity of the 400-meter difference in elevation between the two seas to develop hydropower generation and desalination for domestic use. In 2009, an additional study of solutions for saving the Dead Sea has been initiated.www.worldbank/rds

Duration: 7 years (2005-2011)Budget: US$ 16.7 millionBeneficiary countries: Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian TerritoriesDonors: Implementing Agency: World Bank (WB)Executing Agencies:

5 MEKONG FISHERIES PROGRAMME (FP)The Mekong River Commission's Fisheries Programme concentrates on knowledge generation, raising the awareness of fisheries in the Mekong and improving fisheries management, particularly promoting community involvement in management processes. The programme does research into capture fisheries, trains fisheries managers, promotes aquaculture of indigenous Mekong fish species and disseminates information to policy makers and planners in the four Lower Mekong countries.www.mrcmekong.org/programmes/fisheries.htm

Duration: Began in 1993, ongoing Budget: About US$ 41 million (up to 2010) Beneficiary countries: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam Donor: Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA) Implementing Agencies:

Executing Agency: Mekong River Commission (MRC)

France, Greece, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Netherlands, Sweden and the USA

Coyne & Bellier, Environmental Resources Management (ERM), Thetis S.p.A and Tahal

Line agencies of the 4 countries: IFRDB (Thailand), LARReC (Lao), IFReDI (Cambodia) and RIA-2 (Vietnam)

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6 GUARANI ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GUARANI AQUIFER SYSTEM PROJECT (GAS)The project was developed to support Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay to elaborate and implement a shared institutional, legal and technical framework to preserve and manage the Guarani aquifer. The project was organized in seven “components”, which are designed to aid in a better understanding of the morphology and behavior of the GAS, its use and conservation, and its relationship with communities and institutions. This knowledge informed the development of systems and tools for coordinated management of the waters in the GAS.www.sg-guarani.org

Duration: 6 years (Feb. 2003 – Jan. 2009) Budget: US$ 26.7 million Beneficiary countries: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay Donor: Global Environment Fund (GEF) Implementing Agency: World Bank (WB)Executing Agency: Organization of American States (OAS)

7 OKAVANGO EVERY RIVER HAS ITS PEOPLE (ERP)The ERP project was a regional project implemented by three NGOs in Angola, Namibia and Botswana. The intention of the project was not only to gather information and encourage exchange between people in the Okavango River Basin, but also to facilitate the understanding among all major stakeholders of the problems local communities face and develop joint solutions to the most urgent problems.www.kcs.org.bw and http://www.nnf.org.na Duration: 7 years (May. 2000 – Feb. 2007) Budget: US$ 2.8 million Beneficiary countries: Angola, Botswana and Namibia Donor: Swedish International Development Agency (Sida) Implementing andexecuting Agency: Kalahari Conservation Society (KCS) in Botswana, Namibian

Nature Foundation (NNF) and Association for Environment Conservation and Integrated Rural Development (ACADIR) in Angola.


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8 NILE NILE TRANSBOUNDARY ENVIRONMENTAL ACTION PROJECT (NTEAP)NTEAP is one of the 8 projects developed by the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in its Shared Vision Program. The project provides a strategic framework for environmentally sustainable development of the Nile River Basin and supports basin-wide environmental action linked to transboundary issues. The project's major achievements are organized around five components: institutional strengthening; community-level land, forests, and water conservation; environment education and awareness; water quality monitoring and wetlands and biodiversity.http://nteap.nilebasin.org

Duration: 6 years (Oct. 2003 – Dec. 2009) Budget: About US$ 43.6 million Beneficiary countries:

Donor: Global Environment Facility (GEF)Implementing Agencies:

Executing Agency:

Burundi, DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Eritrea (observer)

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and World Bank (WB)Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) through the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS)

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KEY POINTS: 1. THE INCREASING COMPLEXITY OF THE WATER ENVIRONMENT INCREASING PRESSURE ON WATER RESOURCES DUE TO GLOBAL CHANGE GROWING UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE MULTIPLYING INTERDEPENDENCIES AT VARIOUS SCALES

2. A NEW CHALLENGE FOR WATER MANAGEMENT EMERGENT PROPERTIES OF COMPLEX WATER SYSTEMS TRADITIONAL APPROACHES TO WATER MANAGEMENT PROVE INAPPROPRIATE THE NEED FOR A PARADIGM SHIFT IN WATER MANAGEMENT

3. THE PARTICULAR NATURE OF WATER PROJECTS THE TWO ASPECTS OF WATER MANAGEMENT: “OPERATIONS” AND “PROJECTS” COMPLEXITY RESULTS IN AN OVERALL LACK OF PERFORMANCE AND SUSTAINABILITY OF WATER PROJECTS PROJECTS AS TRANSITIONS BETWEEN TRADITIONAL AND NEW WATER MANAGEMENT APPROACHES

4. ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS FOR A NEW APPROACH FIVE MAJOR PRINCIPLES FOR A NEW WATER MANAGEMENT MODE THE NEED FOR PRACTICAL TOOLS

INTRODUCTIONTHE NEED FOR A NEW MANAGEMENT MODE

FOR COMPLEX WATER PROJECTS


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1. THE INCREASING COMPLEXITY OF THE WATER ENVIRONMENT

Water evolves in an increasingly complex environment. River basins face emerging challenges, constraints and changing priorities. Complexity comes from several factors which are detailed below.

INCREASING PRESSURE ON WATER RESOURCES DUE TO GLOBAL CHANGE

Rapid technological, social and economic change drives increased complexity1

by applying growing pressure on water and other natural resources. Rapid population growth, increased economic activity and improved standards of living lead to expanding pollution and a rise in water demand. In order to face it, a more intensive development of water resources has taken place. But in water-scarce and threshold countries, water supply can indeed be insufficient, leading to competing uses and consequently to the emergence of conflicts for water appropriation. The tremendous pace of those changes leads to the increasing recognition that water managers need to shift from a management of supply to a management of demand that could fulfill not only human needs (domestic, industrial and agricultural) but also environmental needs.

GROWING UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change increases this challenge by adding uncertainty and variability in the occurrence of water leading to more frequent extreme events (e.g. floods and droughts) and time and space shifts in rainfall patterns (increased rainfall variability)2. Large-scale technical infrastructures - such as reservoirs, water diversions and artificial storage for droughts or dikes and levees for floods - have been built in order to compensate for those variations and protect human activities3. But given the fact that human societies felt shielded, less precautions were taken elsewhere to cope with extremes4 and manage demand. Cities with high population densities and large water demand, like Las Vegas for example, emerged in drought areas. The damage in case of technical failure increases, revealing a limited ability to control extremes by technical means.

Figure 1 - GROWING PRESSURE ON WATER RESOURCES

23

INTRODUCTION

These ordeals are all the harder to manage as scientific and technical data about the resource is often lacking, unreliable, incomplete or inconsistent5. There is a lack of perfect scientific knowledge of the water cycle, environmental impacts and behavioral variables6.

MULTIPLYING INTERDEPENDENCIES AT VARIOUS SCALES

In order to understand the increasing complexity of the environment in which water evolves, it is useful to distinguish four different types of interdependencies:

• Between water uses (domestic, industrial and agricultural) and water regimes (surface water and groundwater, quality and quantity)7. Human, technology and the natural environment are entirely interconnected and synergistic.

• Between geographical and administrative territories and, for transboundary basins, among states. Three boundaries overlap corresponding to administrative, surface water and underground water delimitations. This triple overlapping poses the problem of water responsibility and cooperation among institutions. It is even more problematic when it comes to transboundary basins.

• Among the increasing number of stakeholders involved in water management, who have different and sometimes conflicting perceptions and agendas. Governments, experts or populations do not have the same interests in managing water resources. Very complex societal and political structures have grown up around water8 involving decisions made in different places by fragmented and numerous stakeholders.

An example can be taken from the Guarani Aquifer that lies beneath Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. A project was launched on the aquifer in 2003. At the beginning, few precise data existed on the aquifer: its geographical delimitations, water quality, depth, geothermal capacity or renewal rate were not precisely known.

Figure 2 - EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Dealing with uncertainty is one of the major challenges for the management of natural resources.


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2. A NEW CHALLENGE FOR WATER MANAGEMENT

EMERGENT PROPERTIES OF COMPLEX WATER SYSTEMS

These increasing pressure, uncertainty and interdependencies add to the complexity surrounding water and trigger the appearance of certain specificities inherent in complex systems. As a working definition, the global water system can be defined as the global suite of water-related human, physical, biological, and biogeochemical components and their interactions9.

• UnpredictabilityCurrent changes in the water environment lead to more unpredictability and non-linearity. Water managers can neither predict with accuracy the outcome of their interventions, nor know and control all relevant processes10. Their knowledge of the physical and non-physical responses of the system to external interventions is always incomplete11.

It becomes more and more difficult to predict probabilities for weather extremes12 as well as to foresee the overall development of our world and society13.

• SynergyMultiplying interdependencies highlight the synergy and interconnectedness within water systems. These include multiple elements and multiple interactions among those elements. If the functioning of one of those elements is disrupted, it is the whole system that is in turn upset.

• Between the various disciplines around water: political, scientific, technical, legal, etc.. All have different approaches to water management and water issues along with different responses.

For example if you bring water from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea, you might change the biological composition of the Dead Sea, but also impact potash industries, tourism industries, ecosystems, etc.

On the Senegal River, the construction the Diama anti-salt dam fostered the endemic expansion of Typha. The plant invaded cultivated zones and provided a habitat for bilharzia-carrying mollusks. This new infrastructure has generated environmental and sanitary issues.

25

INTRODUCTION

• EmergenceThe combination of the various elements, human, technological and environmental, can lead to the emergence of new properties. They cannot be predicted from the behavior of individual elements, but can be observed when those elements combine.

TRADITIONAL APPROACHES TO WATER MANAGEMENT PROVE INAPPROPRIATE

In the face of these emerging challenges and properties, traditional approaches to water management prove inappropriate14. Water management refers to activities of analyzing, monitoring, developing and implementing measures to keep the state of a resource within desirable bounds15. Certain characteristics portray these long-established approaches:

• PredictionThey rely on the assumption that the future is certain or otherwise uncertainties are well understood16. They attempt to eliminate uncertainty from any strategic decision-making assuming that the response of the system to water management interventions can be predicted and therefore, all activities can be planned in advance. They try to reach the “right” solution according to what was planned initially. This “optimal” solution represents the referential of what is good17 and remains static over time.

• Control and mechanistic thinkingPrediction leads to control. If everything can be predicted, centralized control can be applied18. Mistakes can be corrected according to what was planned19 and optimal control strategies can be designed. Decision-making is shaped by regulatory frameworks including technical norms and legal prescriptions20. It works on the Cartesian concept of causality: effects are traced back to causes, and causes are quantitatively analyzed21 and controlled.

• HierarchyControl is exercised through centralized and hierarchical governance structures. Stakeholder participation is narrow. Managers who hold traditional management views believe that the best way to run complex mechanisms is by rigorous and inflexible hierarchical organizations, controlled by those at the top22.

• Single technical disciplineFor the last few decades water issues have been studied and developed in a technological manner without being intrusive on other sectors of society23. Decision-making has been based on a single discipline and focus to deal with water management problems alone with little connectivity between with other


26

environmental, social, cultural and policy disciplines24. This partition can result in policy conflicts and emergent chronic problems, for instance in cases where the influence of cultural factors and social relationships prevail25.

THE NEED FOR A PARADIGM SHIFT IN WATER MANAGEMENT

Traditional methods prove unsuitable when confronted to the increasing complexity of water systems and environment. They show low adaptive capacity and ability to deal with surprise26. Along with growing uncertainty about the future, there has thus been a move away from management approaches which over-emphasize rationality and predictability27. This led to the acknowledgement that a radical change in water management practices was needed. Many voices have advocated the need for this paradigm shift in water management (Cortner and Moote 1994, Ward 1995, Gleick 2000 and Pahl Wostl 2002)28.

3. THE PARTICULAR NATURE OF WATER PROJECTS

THE TWO ASPECTS OF WATER MANAGEMENT: “OPERATIONS” AND “PROJECTS”

This need for a paradigm shift encompasses two aspects of water management: operations management and project management. Operations management deals with the everyday management of water resources: quantity and quality monitoring, infrastructure management, administrative functions, etc. It integrates all activities that must be undertaken on a regular basis. Operations are ongoing and deliver repetitive products, services or results.

Project management, on the other hand, relates to temporary water development activities such as infrastructure construction, micro-grants implementation, information system setting-up, etc. While operations management aims at maintaining the state of water resources, projects management aims at improving it.

Figure 3 - FRAMEWORK FOR “OPERATIONS” AND “PROJECT” MANAGEMENT

27

INTRODUCTION

COMPLEXITY RESULTS IN AN OVERALL LACK OF PERFORMANCE AND SUSTAINABILITY OF WATER PROJECTS

Neither traditional operations management nor project management can fulfill the challenges and requirements for mastering increased complexity29. Project management techniques have been used for decades in order to plan and control water projects. These methods are now questioned and challenged in their capacity to ensure that complex projects perform effectively and sustainably. Many projects actually fail to deliver satisfactory and sustainable results.

This lack of performance and of sustainability can partly be explained by what are in fact two forms of complexity: not only is the water environment increasingly complex, as explained above, but water projects themselves are inherently complex, by nature. Indeed, projects have management requirements different from the management of routine operations30. The complexity of projects can be explained by several factors:

• TransienceProjects are committed to very short timescales. There are time pressures in routine operations. However, because they are routine, it is known how much can be done in a given time, and so there is less likelihood of committing to impossibly tight schedules31. • UniquenessProjects are undertaken to create a unique product, service or result. Each project is a unique opportunity to improve the state of the water resources and for the different stakeholders to cooperate32. They are highly strategic undertakings.

• Novelty and unfamiliarity Projects are ad hoc undertakings. They are out of the ordinary, something different from a normal, routine affair in the organization33. Unlike operations where stakeholders know what they have to do, how to do it and with whom, projects are by definition novel. People have to do things they have never done before and work with people they have never worked with. Although repetitive elements may be present in some project deliverables, this repetition does not change the fundamental unfamiliarity of the project work34.


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Figure 4 - THE DOUBLE COMPLEXITY OF WATER PROJECTS

PROJECTS AS TRANSITIONS BETWEEN TRADITIONAL AND NEW WATER MANAGEMENT APPROACHES

Projects are used to move from a stable situation (A) at one point in time to a future desired stable situation (B). They are based on the acknowledgement that the current situation is not satisfying, “traditional management approaches are inappropriate”, and that an improved situation for tomorrow must be established, “a new water management mode”. For the countries in Europe where a transition towards a new water management mode has already started35, a “soft path” with small and progressive changes may be successful in setting up such a transition. But for developing countries where water resources are not yet much developed and traditional methods are still commonly used, a more radical change is needed. Only projects can lead to in-depth changes through, for instance, major institutional evolutions, the construction of new offices or the implementation of an information system.

Yet if even projects fail to establish the expected changes or if those changes are not sustainable, it is the whole transition process from current water management regimes to new ones that is jeopardized. While existing project management modes have not always reached expected outcomes nor proved satisfying effectiveness, project management in itself is not to be given up. Still new principles need to be enlightened in order to foster a brand new methodology to handle water management.

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INTRODUCTION

4. ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS FOR A NEW APPROACH

FIVE MAJOR PRINCIPLES FOR A NEW WATER MANAGEMENT MODE

Many approaches proposing new management modes for water resources already exist. This book aims at contributing to this effort. While arguments put forward by the different approaches differ in detail and emphasis, five key characteristics of a new paradigm could be identified36.

• IntegratedIntegrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is a process which promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems37. Water issues have to be tackled from an integrated perspective taking into account environmental, human and technological factors and in particular their interdependence38.

Figure 5 - THE IWRM BALANCE

• HolisticManaging water resources in a holistic way involves taking into account all these IWRM components and their interactions. Since water systems are complex, they must be considered not only as a whole but also through a concise and pragmatic vision in order to be able to clarify complexity. This aspect involves two other principles: redundancy (trying not to leave out any relevant issue) and parsimony (trying to be as simple as possible)39.

• AdaptiveAdaptive management refers to a systematic process for continually improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of implemented management strategies40. It implies adapting to fast-changing conditions and being flexible in order to be able to change management practices based on new experience and insights41. Adaptive management implies experimenting and adopting novel solutions in order to deal with uncertainties and surprise.


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• MultidisciplinaryMultiplying interdependencies lead to increased integration of issues and sectors surrounding water42. Water managers now have to open up and become receptive and adaptive to other sectors and actors in society in order to cope with contemporary water issues43. A true integration must be fostered between social, natural and engineering sciences. This allows people from different backgrounds to discuss in an open forum, exchange the sources of their problems, expectations they hold about other people’s behavior and framing of the context into which they embed the problem under investigation44.

• ParticipatoryWater development, management and decision-making should be based on a participatory and collaborative approach, involving users, planners and policymakers at all levels45. Two other principles can be linked to broad stakeholder participation: “subsidiarity” with decisions made by the smallest, lowest or least centralized competent authority46 and linking “bottom-up” and “top-down” with an integration between strategies coming from the political level and initiatives coming from the local level.

THE NEED FOR PRACTICAL TOOLS

These five key characteristics have been identified for several decades, and so has the scientific and political acknowledgement of the need for a paradigm shift in water management. Yet the changing pace at the policies and management levels is quite slow47.

Several explanatory factors concur. Firstly, planning in this environment requires a degree of complexity equivalent to the complexity of the environment in which it exists48. Secondly, not everybody has either the inclination or the aptitude for working in this uncertain world49. Thirdly, the conditions and challenges for the practical implementation of a transition in water management regimes are not yet well understood50.

Water managers lack the practical tools and recommendations for adopting new water management practices. The aim of this book is to propose practical steps for water managers, for them to develop a more adaptive vision enabling them to take into account the increasing complexity of water environment and projects. This new methodology makes use of existing practices in managing complex water projects along with recent work on strategic management and complex systems. Thus, water managers, while adopting a new management mode for their projects, will also be able to ensure a soft and successful transition towards this new management of water operations.

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INTRODUCTION

Development Modeling® is a methodology as well as a language that all management actors involved in major projects can apply in order to address the challenges coming from the project complexity. The approach works as a “Decision and Management Model” that can help project managers and steering committees to: • share their visions of development, • build alternative strategies of actions, • monitor the evolution of uncertainty and • influence key actors for the project success.

An overview of the set of practical tools contained in the Development Modeling® methodology is presented on the next couple of pages.


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Emeline HASSENFORDER Pierre DANIEL

Benjamin NOURY

MODELS AND APPLICATIONS FROM

8 TRANSBOUNDARY PROJECTS

The increasing complexity in the water environment and in water projects strongly questions the effectiveness of traditional water management methods. Classic project management tools do not ensure performance, and the sustainability of water projects is therefore challenged.

This book suggests a new approach for the management of water projects that integrates the principles of sustainability, multidimensionality, measurability, comprehensiveness and unpredictability. These principles are presented in two different parts: firstly, through a scientific approach suggesting a new methodology for the management of water projects and secondly, through pragmatic examples of challenges and key success factors experienced in eight transboundary water projects. Both parts are illustrated by numerous examples drawn from an analysis of eight major water projects in seven transboundary basins: Danube, Tigris and Euphrates, Jordan, Mekong, Guarani Aquifer, Okavango and Nile.This book aims at providing water managers

This book is the result of three years of collaboration between the three authors:

Emeline HASSENFORDER initiated the “Entre Deux Eaux“ research project with Benjamin with whom she subsequently co-founded Oxyo Water. She focuses her research on the sustainability of water projects.

and decision-makers with pragmatic approaches for tackling the complexity of water projects. It is also of interest for project managers involved in complex projects in other domains (agriculture, industry, etc.).

«This publication is a contribution to UNESCO’s PCCP (‘From Potential Conflict to Cooperation Potential’) programme, and enjoys the support of this programme. PCCP is an associated programme of the IHP (International Hydrological Programme) and the WWAP (World Water Assessment Programme) which are the two pillars of UNESCO’s Division of Water Sciences.»

Pierre DANIEL is a professor at SKEMA Business School. He is the founder of the Development Modeling® Methodology. He holds a PhD in management science and focuses his research in the domain of complex projects.

Benjamin NOURY is at the origin of “Entre Deux Eaux“ and Oxyo Water with Emeline. He works as a consultant and trainer on the management of water projects.

NEW

PERSPECTIVES FO

R THE M

AN

AG

EMEN

T OF W

ATER PROJECTS

Models and applications from

8 transboundary projects

E. HA

SSENFO

RDER

P. DA

NIEL

B. NO

URY

ISBN 978-2-9538141-0-130€

COUVERTURE FINALE.indd 1 9/02/12 23:30:53

Documents

New Perspectives for the management of water projects