New NWS Western Region Local Climate Products

New NWS Western Region New NWS Western Region Local Climate ProductsLocal Climate Products

1Marina Timofeyeva, 2Andrea Bair and 3David Unger

1 UCAR/NWS/NOAA

2 WR HQ/NWS/NOAA

3 CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA

Contributors: Bob Livezey, Shripad Deo, Heather Hauser, Holly Hartmann, Eugene Petrescu, Michael Staudenmaier

OUTLINEOUTLINE

• Need for Local Climate Products

• Challenges in Local Climate Product Development

• Methods and Data

• Product Design

• Operational Organization

• Next Steps

Need For Local Climate ProductsNeed For Local Climate Products

• CPC products and Local Climate

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54

CD83 SLC Ogden Heber Pl. Grove Logan

Need For Local Climate ProductsNeed For Local Climate Products

• Localized Climate Impacts are of public interest

Figures courtesy of Klaus Wolter, CDC

Challenges in Local Climate Challenges in Local Climate Product DevelopmentProduct Development

ScientificallyScientificallySoundSound

OperationallyOperationallyOrganizedOrganized

CustomerCustomerFriendlyFriendly

Local Local ClimateClimate

ProductsProducts

Methods and DataMethods and Data

• Modified CPC Translation of CD Seasonal Temperature POE

Forecasted Temperature (Forecasted Temperature (°F)°F)

PO

F (

%)

PO

F (

%) Observed T


• Modification included:– Regression coefficients estimate: use of straight

regression coefficients versusversus ones inflated by correlation;

– Forecasting methodology: station mean and variance are estimated from CD forecasted mean and variance and use of normal distribution for POE ordinates versusversus use of inflated correlation coefficients and CD POE temperature ordinates;

– Local Product design is customer friendlier

Forecast issued in 09/2004 for JFM 2004 (3.5 lead)

0

20

40

60

80

100

37 39 41 43 45 47 49

Temperature (F)

PO

E (

%)

Forecast Climatology


• Data: NCDC provided an experimental “homogenized and serially complete data” set with:– Monthly/daily value internal consistency

check– Bias adjusted to a midnight to midnight

observation schedule– Spatial QC– Artificial change point detected and adjusted– Estimated missing or discarded data


0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

ri – Station/CD Correlation

ρ (CD fcst/obs corr)

Sp

read

of

Sta

tion

Fore

cast Climatological Spread

Confident Prediction


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM

#of s

ites

with

cor

r>=

0.8

Regular NCDC data Special NCDC data


• CPC Composite Analysis extended by Risk Analysis and CPC forecasting method

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25

0.0

0.0

50

.10

0.1

50

.20

0.2

50

.30

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25

0.0

00

.05

0.1

00

.15

0.2

00

.25

0.3

0

1941-2000

1941,1958,1966,1973,1983,1987,1988,1992,1995,1998

Eastern North Dakota Temperature (°F) Eastern North Dakota Temperature (°F)


• Extension includes Risk Analysis identifying statistically significant signal

El Nino Above

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

# of events

Pro

bab

ilit

y


• Making forecast using Composite Analysis

FORECAST USING CURRENT CPC Nino 3.4:FORECAST USING CURRENT CPC Nino 3.4:

Nino3.4

TermWarm Neutral Cold

Above 67% 33% 11%

Near 13% 53% 28%

Below 20% 14% 61%

P P P P P P Pca tegorysta tion

above even tsta tion

aboveN ino

near even tsta tion

nearN ino

below even tsta tion

belowN ino /

./

./

.* * *3 4 3 4 3 4

Example – ElNino with 7.5 month lead (forecast for JFM 2005):Example – ElNino with 7.5 month lead (forecast for JFM 2005):

NINO 3.4 INITIAL TIME 5 2004 PROJECTION FRACTION Lead Mo BELOW NORMAL ABOVEJJA 0.5 0.076 0.371 0.552…………………………………………DJF 6.5 0.053 0.388 0.559JFM 7.5JFM 7.5 0.0800.080 0.3930.393 0.5270.527

%4967.0*527.033.0*393.011.0*08.0

%3013.0*527.052.0*393.028.0*08.0

%212.0*527.014.0*393.061.0*08.0

,

,

,

MiamiJFMabove

MiamiJFMnear

MiamiJFMbelow

P

P

P

September 2004 Long Lead Outlook for SEA

35

45

55

65

75

Te

mp

era

ture

(F

)

Lover 67%Limit 44.8 40.9 40.2 42.0 45.2 49.4 54.1 59.3 63.0 63.1 58.7 51.3 44.4

Upper 67% Limit 47.9 43.9 43.7 45.8 48.5 52.4 56.9 61.8 65.1 65.2 60.9 54.3 47.7

Lover 95% Limit 43.2 39.4 38.5 40.1 43.6 47.9 52.7 58.0 61.9 62.1 57.7 49.8 42.8

Upper 95% Limit 49.4 45.4 45.4 47.7 50.2 53.9 58.3 63.1 66.2 66.2 61.9 55.9 49.4

Normal 46.2 42.2 41.6 43.5 46.6 50.7 55.5 60.5 63.8 64.0 59.7 53.0 46.2

OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND

Product DesignProduct Design

• Translated POE: Customer “wants a number”

Forecast issued in 09/2004 for OND 2004 (0.5 lead)

0

20

40

60

80

100

42 44 46 48 50

Temperature (F)

PO

E (

%)

Forecast Climatology


• Verification with cross-validation

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Ja

n-9

5

Ju

l-9

5

Ja

n-9

6

Ju

l-9

6

Ja

n-9

7

Ju

l-9

7

Ja

n-9

8

Ju

l-9

8

Ja

n-9

9

Ju

l-9

9

Ja

n-0

0

Ju

l-0

0

Ja

n-0

1

Ju

l-0

1

CR

PS

S


• Verification with cross-validation

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

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0.9

1

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

ColdSeasons

.05 ConfLim

.95 ConfLim

Perfectfrcst

WarmSeasons

ProbabilityProbability

Ob

se

rve

d F

req

ue

nc

yO

bs

erv

ed

Fre

qu

en

cy

Product DesignProduct Design• CD verification indicates space & time differences

in forecast performance


• Composite Based: Customer “wants a number”

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Pabove 20.0 25.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 50.0 45.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 60.0 55.0 50.0

Pnear 30.0 29.4 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 30.0 30.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 30.0 30.0 30.0

Pbelow 50 45 33 33 33 33 33 33 20 25 33 33 33 10.0 15.0 20.0

Above 37.9 41.4 48.8 57.3 64.4 72.6 78.6 77.4 67.9 55.8 45.4 38.9 37.9 41.4 48.8 57.3

Upper Near Norm Limit 34.0 38.1 44.0 51.9 60.7 69.8 75.2 74.1 65.6 54.4 42.6 34.4 34.0 38.1 44.0 51.9

Lower Near Norm Limit 30.6 34.5 42.3 50.0 58.8 67.7 74.1 72.7 64.4 52.3 40.7 32.1 30.6 34.5 42.3 50.0

Below 24.6 30.0 38.4 46.6 54.5 65.3 68.8 69.3 61.4 48.3 37.3 27.1 24.6 30.0 38.4 46.6

DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM

Pro

bab

ilit

y, %

Tem

peratu

re, °F

Jan-Feb-Mar Composite for Total Precipitation at Miami, FL

0

20

40

60

80

Pro

bab

ility

(%

)

B 61 14 20

N 28 52 13

A 11 33 67

La Nina Neutral El Nino

Bordered Probability bars are statistically significantBordered Probability bars are statistically significant


00.20.40.60.8

1

ElNino Neutral La Nina

00.20.40.60.8

1


Seligman

00.20.40.60.8

1


Childs

0

0.2

0.40.6

0.8

1


Wupatki

Betatakin

0

0.2

0.40.6

0.8

1


Petrified Forest

00.20.40.60.8

1


McNary

00.20.40.60.8

1


Prescott

00.20.40.60.8

1


Flagstaff

00.20.40.60.8

1


Payson

00.2

0.40.6

0.81


Winslow

Analysis of WFO Flagstaff Composites

for Tmean JFM


• Verification

0 5 10 15

Lead Season

05

10

15

20

# o

f h

its in

21 y

ears

ButteGrangevilleHamiltonHeron

KalispellLibbyMissoula

SalmonSeeley LakeWest Glacier

WFO MSO stations, Verification period 1982-2002Tmean, JAS

0 5 10 15Lead Season

05

10

15

20

# o

f h

its in

21 y

ears

ButteGrangevilleHamiltonHeronKalispell

LibbyMissoulaSalmonSeeley LakeWest Glacier

WFO MSO stations, Verification period 1982-2002Tmean, JAS

0 5 10 15

Lead Season

05

10

15

20

# o

f h

its in

21 y

ears

BetatakinChildsFlagstaffWinslowMcNary 2N

PaysonPetrified Forest N.P.PrescottSeligmanWupatki N.M.

WFO FGZ stations, Verification period 1982-2002Precip, JFM


• Verification

1985 1990 1995 2000

Years

-2-1

01

2

RP

SS

ButteGrangevilleHamiltonHeronKalispell

LibbyMissoulaSalmonSeeley LakeWest Glacier

LaNinaNeutralElNino

WFO MSO stations, Lead=0.5

Operational OrganizationOperational Organization

• 87 site in NWS WR area will be introduced in 01/05

CPC/CSD WR HQ WR WFO

Methodology;Software;

CD Forecast

Station Forecast;Verification

Prognostic Discussion;

Product Delivery;Customer Feedback

Next StepsNext Steps

• Product Documentation

• Experimental Phase

• Customer Feedback

• Product Adjustment

• Product Introduction in NWS operations

Documents

New NWS Western Region Local Climate Products