New North Summit 2007

Edward E. Gordon www.imperialcorp.com

New North Summit 2007Edward E. GordonKeynote Address:

“More & Better: Preventing a Workforce Meltdown”


The Education-to-Employment System is

brokenbroken


“More & Better:Preventing a Workforce Meltdown”

Agenda

Part I: 2010 IssuesPart II. 2010 Solutions &

Opportunities


AgendaPart I: 2010 Issues

1. Demographics2. Technology3. “The Unflat World” ― Education Critical Mass4. Help Wanted: Worldwide5. Current Solutions “Shopping the World”


U.S. Workforce between 2010 & 2025• Baby Boomers − 79 million Americans

born 1946-64 retire• Generation X − 40 million Americans

born 1965-77 − Less job ready than baby boomers

• Generation Y − 70 million Americans born 1977-95 − Less job ready than prior generations


Change in U.S. Population2000-2020

7 5 7 -10 3

73

54

-100

1020304050607080

Percent

Under14

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 &older

Age GroupSource: U.S. Census Bureau


Wisconsin UnemploymentOctober 2007

5.2%


United States Manufacturing 2005

#1 in Value of Manufactured Products (Double China’s)

61% of U.S. Exports

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit


3. Education Critical Mass

The Unflat World


PISA Math Scores of 15-year-oldsSelected Countries

460 480 500 520 540 560

Italy

U.S.

Hungary

Canada

Japan

Korea

Finland

Source: OECD, 2006 (PISA 2003 data from 29 nations)


Wisconsin High SchoolDrop-Outs Age 18-64

317,194 (9.3%)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005


Wisconsin High SchoolDrop-Outs Age 18-24

78,899 (15.6%)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005


Wisconsin State High School Graduation Rates(U.S. average = 73%)

All WI Students 77.3%Asian 74.8%Hispanic 53.6%Black 44.8%White 82.6%Source: EPE Research Center, 2007


II. Adults

90+ Million American WorkersLack

ReadingWriting

MathSkills to do their jobs properly


National Adult Literacy Assessments1993/2003 Prose Results Compared

Adult Pop. 2003Categories ’93%/’03% Total 222 Million I. Below Basic 14/14 31MII. Basic 28/29 64M (95M)III. Intermediate 43/44 98M(Moderately Challenging)

IV. Proficient 15/13 29M


New North CountiesPercent of Adults at Level 1 Literacy

Brown 11% Marquette 19%Calumet 9% Menominee 10%Door 13% Oconto 16%Florence N/A Outagamie 11%Fond du Lac 11% Shawano 15%Green Lake 14% Sheboygan 13%Kewaunee 12% Waupaca 14%Manitowoc 13% Waushara 18%Marinette 15% Winnebago 10%


National Adult Literacy Assessments1993/2003 College Grads Compared

Prose Proficiency 4-year Graduates & Graduate Degrees

1993 2003 91% 72%

Source: U.S. Department of Education


WisconsinCollege Graduates(Adults Age 25+)

25%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006


Ratio of Science & Engineering Degrees to 24-Year-Old Population

0

2

4

6

8

10

U.K S. Korea Germany Japan Canada U.S.

Council on Competitiveness, 2000


U.S. Aging by Occupations

Occupations Aging WorkforceEngineers & Scientists 52% are over age 50

Government Workers 44% are 45 years +

Skilled Machinists Average age is 50

Construction Workers Average age is 47

Nurses 47% retiring over next 7 years

Manufacturing Managers 50% retiring over next 7 years

Federal Workforce 40% retiring by 2010


U.S. Jobs Shifts 2000-2020(In Millions)

Job Categories 2000 2010 2020

Professionals/Executives 44 52 60Sales, Technical 42 50 60Tech Support/ Skilled Craft 22 29 43Low End Service 20 25 27Other Low Skill Jobs 24 21 17

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2005


U.S. Labor MarketJobs 2004-2014

Category NewReplace-ment

% of Total Total

All Jobs 18.9M 35.7M 65% 54.6MComputer Tech. 967K 422K 30% 1,389MEngineers 195K 312K 62% 507KSkilled Trades 699K 1.1M 61% 1.8MTeachers 1.7M 1.8M 51% 3.5M

Source: Daniel E. Hecker, U.S. Dept. of Labor, 2005


U.S. Labor MarketJobs 2004-2014

Category NewReplace-ment

% of Total Total

Nurses 703K 497K 41% 1.2MMDs 136K 76K 36% 212KDentists 20K 26K 57% 46KHealth Techs 592K 446K 45% 1.0M

Source: Daniel E. Hecker, U.S. Dept. of Labor, 2005


U.S. Workforce

1. Techno-Peasants (50%)2. The Walking Dead (25%)3. Smart People (25%)


U.S. Techno-Peasant Numbers• 25.4M – Age 18-64 have not completed high

school (or equivalent)• 8.1M – Have dropped out before 9th grade• 28.8M – With a high school diploma or less are

not earning living wages• 8.3M – Age 18-64 with high school diplomas or

less have difficulty speaking English or speak no English at all

• 1.5M – Included in this group are in state & federal prisons


U.S. Talent Challenge

2010-2020 Jobs vs. Today’s Workforce75% High Pay 25% of WorkersRequire Career Prepared forPrep. Career-Based

Jobs

25% Low-Pay 75% of Workers($10-12 hr.) Prepared forLow-Skill Jobs NothingSource: Edward E. Gordon, 2010


10 Hardest-To-Fill Jobs in the U.S.1. Sales Representative2. Teacher3. Mechanic4. Technician5. Management/Executive6. Truck Driver7. Driver/Delivery8. Accountant9. Laborer10. Machine OperatorSource: Manpower, 2007


U.S. Labor MarketTalent Shortages 2010-2020

Category ShortfallAll Jobs 3M-6.1MNurses 340K-1MDoctors 55K-200KHealth Technicians 200K-400KInformation Technology 500K-1MEngineers 50K-250KTeachers 500K-1MScientists 100K-200KSources: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Professional Associations


Increases in Wages 2007

United States +4.5%

India/China +20%

“In-Shoring”


Technology Globalization

The 2010 Meltdown

Demographics Education andCareer Skills

EmploymentHigh Wage/High Skill

orLow/Wage/Low Skill

EconomyExpands or Contracts


Agenda2010 Solutions

1. Business Culture Change2. Career Culture Change3. Mobilizing Community Culture Change4. The 2010 Challenge & Beyond


Business Culture Change


Future Workforce Implications

• Slower labor force growth will increase pressure for participation of all labor force segments

• Technological advances may enable more labor force participation of persons with disabilities

• Various accommodations could increase the participation of older people, women with children, persons with disabilities, etc.


What Business Needs:

A Measurable Definable Processthat is Transferable

Return-on-Investment (ROI)



How Innovation Happens

Information(Data, Facts)

Memorization Comprehension Applied Thinking

InputsKnowledge

(Insight)Wisdom(Ideas)

Learning InnovationUnder-standing

Activities

Outcomes


The Sixth Discipline’s“ Winning Formula”

High-Tech Highly Increased IncreasedWorkplace + Educated = People + Profit

Workers Productivity

Fewer complex For the amountmachines do produced & levelmore work of quality

For the amount Lower fixed laborproduced & level costs at comparableof quality world productivity

cost levels


Career Culture Change


Human Ability Areas1. Linguistics2. Logical-Mathematical3. Spatial4. Musical5. Bodily Fine-Gross Motor6. Interpersonal7. IntrapersonalSource: Robert J. Sternberg, 1996


Q. What is a NGO? A. An intermediary agency that

builds a network.


Career Culture Education Culture

4. The 2010 Challenge and Beyond

Education Prep.and

Lifelong Learning

Career and JobAlternatives


orLow/Wage/Low Skill

Business Culture


The “C” (Culture) FactorCulture X Literacy = Education X Marketplace = GDP

C = A nation’s attitudes & motivation on the importance of personal learning & applying it throughout life.

L = Personal reading practices & formal schooling.E = The “critical mass” of a nation’s knowledge.M = The socioeconomic forces driving business,

government and non-profit activities.GDP = Gross Domestic Product: The wealth of a nation.


Business Educators

The 2010 Solution


EconomyExpands

Labor

NGOIntermediary Agency

Liberal Arts Education& Career Prep.

Incumbent WorkerLifelong Learning

Parents & Students Government


For more information, go towww.imperialcorp.com

or contact:Dr. Edward E. Gordon

[email protected]

Documents

New North Summit 2007