MEMO IV

To: Prof Lawrence A. Souza

From: Tom Bopp

Date: February 28, 2015

Re: Fertilizer prices expected to rise by 10% over next two months

We are tracking fertilizer prices.  Based on our research, we forecast fertilizer prices to rise 10% over the next two months based on the following three factors: Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America; a rise in global fertilizer consumption; and a rise in Global economic growth. Therefore, we recommend the following 26 trades:

Indices (3) ETFs (3) Stocks (3)Actions: Buy forwards Buy on margin Buy on margin

Buy futures Buy call options Buy call optionsWrite puts on futures Write puts options Write puts optionsBuy calls on futures

Trades: 8 8 9Tickers: JJG, JJA, IYM SOIL, MOO, DBA POT, AGU, MOS

Total Trades: (26)

Asia and Latin America account for almost (2/3) of global consumption to support food production growing populations.

Global fertilizer consumption is growing fastest in these emerging markets, with historical annual growth rates of more than 3% over the past 15 years.

A rise in demand for fertilizers according to the Food and Agricultural Organization, 2010).

We are tracking fertilizer prices.  Based on our research, we forecast fertilizer prices to rise 10% over the next two months based on the following three factors: Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America; a rise in global fertilizer consumption; and Global economic growth. Therefore we recommend the above 26 trades.