58
New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

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Page 1: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers

Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and MeansJanuary 10, 2007

Steve NortonExecutive Director, NHCPPS

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

Page 2: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

All of our reportsare available on the web:

www.nhpolicy.orgwww.nhpolicy.org

New Hampshire Center New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studiesfor Public Policy Studies

Board of Directors

Martin L. Gross, Chair

John B. Andrews

John D. Crosier

Gary Matteson

Todd Selig

Donna Sytek

Georgie A. Thomas

Brian Walsh

Kimon S. Zachos

Staff

Steve Norton

Dennis Delay

Ryan Tappin

Doug Hall

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

Page 3: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Topics for Presentation

General Fund Appropriations 1997-2007

Revenue and the Structural Deficit

1

Page 4: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Budgeted Appropriations: Expenditures by Type SFY 2007

Education, $1,390,454,714 ,

30%

Health and Human Services, $1,701,859,400 ,

35%

Transportation, $547,642,455 ,

12%

Resource Protection and Development, $217,030,487 ,

5%

Admin of Justice and Public Prtn, $424,638,566 ,

9%

General Government,

$416,233,183 , 9%

d

2

Page 5: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Growth in Budget Appropriations (By Fund Source)

$0

$500,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,500,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$2,500,000,000

$3,000,000,000

$3,500,000,000

$4,000,000,000

$4,500,000,000

$5,000,000,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Turnpikes

Sweepstakes Funds

Fish and Game Funds

Highway Funds

Other Funds

Federal Funds

General Fund

3

Page 6: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Distribution of 2007 General Fund Appropriations by Major Components of the Government

Education, $217,555,760 ,

16%

Health and Human Services, $626,817,876 ,

44%

General Government,

$292,825,224 , 21%

Admin of Justice and Public Prtn, $217,790,891 ,

16%

Transportation, $2,958,949 , 0%

Resource Protection and Development,

$43,904,834 , 3%

4

Page 7: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Growth In General Fund Appropriations

$1,401,853,534

$896,660,390

$0

$200,000,000

$400,000,000

$600,000,000

$800,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,200,000,000

$1,400,000,000

$1,600,000,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

** Unadjusted for DSH or Medicare Part D5

Page 8: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Adjusting Aggregate Appropriations for ‘Purchasing Power’

Aggregate expenditures must be adjusted to account for various factors which affect how far a $ goes …• Changes in the prices of goods

• Changes in the number of people being served

Many different factors could be used to adjust nominal to ‘real’ spending• Gross state product

• Change in aggregate personal income

• Combination of Consumer Price Index and Population Growth

6

Page 9: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Comparison of Aggregate Growth (1997-2007)

Percent Growth Over 10 Years1997-2007

69.2%72.9%

54.1% 55.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Gross StateProduct

Personal Income CPI & PopulationCombined

General FundAppropriations

Per

cent

Incr

ease

7

Page 10: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Per Capita General Fund Appropriations(Inflation Adjusted)

$1,029.93 $1,038.48

$0.00

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

$1,000.00

$1,200.00

1997 Per Capita (in 2007 $) 2007 Per Capita

8

Page 11: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Adjusting for inflation and population growth (examples)

Item # Appropriation Type FY 1997 Budget FY 2007 Budget

1997 Per Capita (in 2007 $)

2007 Per Capita

1 Medicaid Provider Payments $91,217,760 $184,964,998 $104.16 $137.022 Retirement System $20,765,227 $71,386,424 $23.71 $52.883 Special Education $9,900,000 $35,990,000 $11.30 $26.664 School Building Aid $16,000,000 $40,735,039 $18.27 $30.185 Dept of Corrections $48,583,351 $88,656,481 $55.48 $65.68

79 Judicial Branch $43,751,818 $59,308,970 $49.96 $43.9480 Cannon Mountain (Formerly Ski Operations) $5,503,039 $0 $6.28 $0.0081 Municipal Revenue Sharing $56,477,478 $77,902,727 $64.49 $57.7182 State Sewer Aid Grants $14,345,284 $12,392,167 $16.38 $9.1883 DMH&DS - Community Mental Health Services $37,868,522 $47,586,394 $43.24 $35.2584 DMH&HS - State Hospital $43,627,495 $44,279,843 $49.82 $32.8085 DHS - AFDC Grants & Emerg. Assist $24,348,790 $11,034,060 $27.80 $8.17

Total GF Contributions (Excluding Uncompensated Care) $901,949,480 $1,401,853,534 $1,029.93 $1,038.48

9

Page 12: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Change in Inflation Adjusted Per Capita Appropriation 1997-2007

($30.00)

($20.00)

($10.00)

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85

Ch

ang

e in

Per

Cap

ita

Ap

pro

pri

atio

n

Medicaid Provider Payments

Retirement System

Special Education

School Building Aid

Corrections

AFDC GrantsNH Hospital

Mental Health Services

State Sewer Aid

Ski Operations

Municipal Revenue Sharing

10

Page 13: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Feast and Famine: 1997-2007 Change in General Fund Appropriations (in $2007 per capita)

($90.94)

$10.20$11.91$15.36$29.17

$32.86

($110.00)

($90.00)

($70.00)

($50.00)

($30.00)

($10.00)

$10.00

$30.00

$50.00

MedicaidProvider

Payments

RetirementSystem

SpecialEducation

SchoolBuilding Aid

Dept ofCorrections

Rest ofBudget

11

Page 14: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Factors Affecting the Five Big Drivers of the State Budget

12

Page 15: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Monthly Count of NH Families with Children on Medicaid(January 1981- August 2006)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Jan-

81

Jan-

82

Jan-

83

Jan-

84

Jan-

85

Jan-

86

Jan-

87

Jan-

88

Jan-

89

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Month

Fam

ilie

s

50% federal funds;50% state funds

there are also elderly and disabled individuals on Medicaid not reflected in this chart

13

Page 16: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Medicaid (Title XIX) Children 07/01 - 08/06

45,8

4246

,310

46,6

1547

,403

48,3

0348

,445

49,3

3750

,236

50,6

5651

,647

51,9

3752

,182

51,8

0952

,153

52,5

5153

,204

53,5

7953

,894

54,3

1454

,999

55,6

4056

,770

56,8

8856

,974

57,1

6056

,940

57,2

3357

,809

57,9

7258

,296

58,5

3458

,923

59,2

8960

,424

60,0

4860

,030

60,1

04 63,5

7263

,395

63,6

6663

,874

63,0

7462

,966

62,0

6562

,448

62,2

6161

,978

61,8

8961

,950

61,5

9761

,648

62,0

4761

,484

61,7

2161

,045

60,6

0360

,492

60,4

6859

,837

59,8

8260

,210

59,9

7140,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

7-01

8-01

9-01

10-0

111

-01

12-0

11-

022-

023-

024-

025-

026-

027-

028-

029-

0210

-02

11-0

212

-02

1-03

2-03

3-03

4-03

5-03

6-03

7-03

8-03

9-03

10-0

311

-03

12-0

31-

042-

043-

044-

045-

046-

047-

048-

049-

0410

-04

11-0

412

-04

1-05

2-05

3-05

4-05

5-05

6-05

7-05

8-05

9-05

10-0

511

-05

12-0

51-

062-

063-

064-

065-

066-

067-

068-

06

Caseload Growth Leveling Off for Children

14

Page 17: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

… and for Adults.

Medicaid (Title XIX) Adult 07/01 - 08/06

30,7

6430

,971

31,0

2731

,324

31,4

7231

,500

31,7

5732

,115

32,3

5732

,566

32,7

7832

,798

32,7

7932

,931

33,0

0233

,325

33,3

9933

,376

33,4

2933

,738

33,9

1734

,298

34,3

1234

,287

34,4

7234

,552

34,7

6535

,038

34,8

4935

,151

35,2

3135

,479

35,8

0236

,168

35,9

5236

,158

36,3

2936

,312

36,4

1136

,398

36,4

0636

,710

36,7

5236

,844

37,1

5237

,251

37,0

7537

,417

37,3

2737

,621

38,1

2437

,786

37,8

5638

,109

37,5

3837

,634

38,0

2437

,828

38,0

53

37,8

5738

,075

38,2

07

27,000

28,500

30,000

31,500

33,000

34,500

36,000

37,500

39,000

40,500

7-01

8-01

9-01

10-0

111

-01

12-0

11-

022-

023-

024-

025-

026-

027-

028-

029-

0210

-02

11-0

212

-02

1-03

2-03

3-03

4-03

5-03

6-03

7-03

8-03

9-03

10-0

311

-03

12-0

31-

042-

043-

044-

045-

046-

047-

048-

049-

0410

-04

11-0

412

-04

1-05

2-05

3-05

4-05

5-05

6-05

7-05

8-05

9-05

10-0

511

-05

12-0

51-

062-

063-

064-

065-

066-

067-

068-

06

15

Page 18: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

New Hampshire's Monthly Unemployment Rate, 1996-2006

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

01/0

1/96

01/0

1/97

01/0

1/98

01/0

1/99

1/1/

2000

1/1/

2001

1/1/

2002

1/1/

2003

1/1/

2004

1/1/

2005

1/1/

2006

Month

% o

f Lab

or F

orce

Une

mpl

oyed

10-year average is 3.5%

16

Page 19: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Compound Annual Growth in # of Retirees and Annual Benefit by Retiree Type (SFY 1994-SFY 2004)

4%

5%

8%

5% 5%5%

8%

6%

7% 7%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Employees Teachers Police Officers Firefighters Total

# of Retirees

Average Benefit

17

Page 20: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

Number of Newly Funded Local School Construction Projects

18

Page 21: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

$7,000,000

$8,000,000

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

Average Cost of New Projects by Fiscal Year

19

Page 22: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

$35,000,000

$40,000,000

$45,000,000

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

Total School Building Aid by Fiscal Year

20

Page 23: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Final Local Entitlement Payments for Catastrophic Aid

$15,978,187$17,731,075 $17,561,880

$28,055,251

$20,074,363$18,999,990

$19,089,927

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

SFY 2000 SFY 2001 SFY 2002 SFY 2003 SFY 2004 SFY 2005 SFY 2006

9.8% Annual Growth Rate

21

Page 24: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Total Number of Students in New Hampshire Where the Cost of an Education was Three Times the State Average

1,271

106 116 121 96 122168 150

1,138 1,125

1,128

1,149

1,246

1,389

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

SFY 2000 SFY 2001 SFY 2002 SFY 2003 SFY 2004 SFY 2005 SFY 2006

# of Students at 3 X StateAverage

# of Students at 10 X StateAverage

22

Page 25: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Increase in the Average State Cost of Students Eligible for Catastrophic Aid from the State

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

SFY 2000 SFY 2001 SFY 2002 SFY 2003 SFY 2004 SFY 2005 SFY 2006

Average Cost of 10 XState AverageAverage Cost of 3 X StateAverage

23

Page 26: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

NH Prisoner Population, 1981-2005

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

2,75019

81

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Year

Pri

son

ers

24

Page 27: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Admissions to NH State Prisons by Type of Crime, FY 81 - FY 05

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

FY81FY82

FY83FY84

FY85FY86

FY87FY88

FY89FY90

FY91FY92

FY93FY94

FY95FY96

FY97FY98

FY99FY00

FY01FY02

FY03FY04

FY05

Nu

mb

er o

f A

dm

issi

on

s

Violent crimesSex offenses

Misc. non-violent crimes

Property crimes

Drug manufacture, sale, or possession

Parole & probation violations

25

Page 28: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Summary: NH General Fund Spending 1997-2007

•Budget up 55.4% in 10 years

•Slightly more than inflation and population growth … and less than economy.

• Programmatically:

•In real terms: “Feast AND Famine”

•5 entitlement functions driving expenditure growth

•Aside from 5 growth areas, net reduction in real spending for remainder of budget. 26

Page 29: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Topics for Presentation

General Fund Spending 1997-2007 Revenue and the Structural Deficit

27

Page 30: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Revenue & the Structural Deficit

Revenue sourcesHow have they changed over time?What is a “structural deficit”? Do we have one?Why does it matter?

28

Page 31: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Business Enterprise Tax

9%

Meals & Rooms Tax

14%

"Medicaid Enhancement"

14%

Utility Tax0%

Dog & Horse Racing

0%

Estate & Legacy Tax

1%

Dog & Horse Racing0%

Park Revenue0%

Board and Care Fees

1%

Interest & Dividends Tax

5%

SecuritiesRevenue

2%

Court Fines & Fees2%

Business Profits Tax

15%

Communications Tax5%

Tobacco Tax5%

Other6%

Insurance Tax6% Real Estate

Transfer Tax8%

Liquor Sales8%

Total:$1,391.6 million

General Fund Revenue by Source FY 2005

29

Page 32: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

General Fund Revenue ($ million)

Beer Tax $12.20 $12.40Board and Care Fees $14.50 $15.60Business Profits Tax $111.00 $196.60Business Enterprise Tax $0.00 $114.10Estate & Legacy Tax $24.30 $11.70Insurance Tax $43.10 $88.70Securities Revenue $0.00 $27.90Interest & Dividends Tax $40.70 $67.90Liquor Sales $55.10 $112.60Meals & Rooms Tax $83.80 $186.50Park Revenue $7.30 $0.00Dog & Horse Racing $10.50 $3.50Real Estate Transfer Tax $32.30 $107.80Communications Tax $12.80 $70.00Tobacco Tax $38.20 $73.20Utility Tax $8.20 $6.30Court Fines & Fees $22.60 $25.50Savings Bank Tax $12.60 $0.00Other $33.10 $85.00"Medicaid Enhancement" $0.00 $186.30Total $562.20 $1,391.60

Revenue Source 1990 2005

30

Page 33: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

General Fund Revenue ($ million)

Compound annual rate of

increase:

7.8%

Beer Tax $12.20 $12.40Board and Care Fees $14.50 $15.60Business Profits Tax $111.00 $196.60Business Enterprise Tax $0.00 $114.10Estate & Legacy Tax $24.30 $11.70Insurance Tax $43.10 $88.70Securities Revenue $0.00 $27.90Interest & Dividends Tax $40.70 $67.90Liquor Sales $55.10 $112.60Meals & Rooms Tax $83.80 $186.50Park Revenue $7.30 $0.00Dog & Horse Racing $10.50 $3.50Real Estate Transfer Tax $32.30 $107.80Communications Tax $12.80 $70.00Tobacco Tax $38.20 $73.20Utility Tax $8.20 $6.30Court Fines & Fees $22.60 $25.50Savings Bank Tax $12.60 $0.00Other $33.10 $85.00"Medicaid Enhancement" $0.00 $186.30Total $562.20 $1,391.60

Revenue Source 1990 2005

31

Page 34: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

General Fund Revenue ($ million) New Versus Old Revenues

2005

Old Source

Old RateNew

SourcesIncreased

Rates

Beer Tax $12.20 $12.40 $12.40Board and Care Fees $14.50 $15.60 $15.60Business Profits Tax $111.00 $196.60 $196.60Business Enterprise Tax $0.00 $114.10 $114.10Estate & Legacy Tax $24.30 $11.70 $9.70 $1.90Insurance Tax $43.10 $88.70 $88.70Securities Revenue $0.00 $27.90 $27.90Interest & Dividends Tax $40.70 $67.90 $67.90Liquor Sales $55.10 $112.60 $112.60Meals & Rooms Tax $83.80 $186.50 $163.20 $23.30Park Revenue $7.30 $0.00Dog & Horse Racing $10.50 $3.50 $3.50Real Estate Transfer Tax $32.30 $107.80 $75.50 $32.30Communications Tax $12.80 $70.00 $10.30 $59.70Tobacco Tax $38.20 $73.20 $33.60 $39.50Utility Tax $8.20 $6.30 $6.30Court Fines & Fees $22.60 $25.50 $25.50Savings Bank Tax $12.60 $0.00Other $33.10 $85.00 $59.60 $25.40"Medicaid Enhancement" $0.00 $186.30 $186.30Total $562.20 $1,391.60 $881.00 $413.50 $97.10

Revenue Source 1990 2005

32

Page 35: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

General Fund Revenue ($ million) New Versus Old Revenues

2005

Old Source

Old RateNew

SourcesIncreased

Rates

Beer Tax $12.20 $12.40 $12.40Board and Care Fees $14.50 $15.60 $15.60Business Profits Tax $111.00 $196.60 $196.60Business Enterprise Tax $0.00 $114.10 $114.10Estate & Legacy Tax $24.30 $11.70 $9.70 $1.90Insurance Tax $43.10 $88.70 $88.70Securities Revenue $0.00 $27.90 $27.90Interest & Dividends Tax $40.70 $67.90 $67.90Liquor Sales $55.10 $112.60 $112.60Meals & Rooms Tax $83.80 $186.50 $163.20 $23.30Park Revenue $7.30 $0.00Dog & Horse Racing $10.50 $3.50 $3.50Real Estate Transfer Tax $32.30 $107.80 $75.50 $32.30Communications Tax $12.80 $70.00 $10.30 $59.70Tobacco Tax $38.20 $73.20 $33.60 $39.50Utility Tax $8.20 $6.30 $6.30Court Fines & Fees $22.60 $25.50 $25.50Savings Bank Tax $12.60 $0.00Other $33.10 $85.00 $59.60 $25.40"Medicaid Enhancement" $0.00 $186.30 $186.30Total $562.20 $1,391.60 $881.00 $413.50 $97.10

Revenue Source 1990 2005

Compound annual rate of increase:

3.4%33

Page 36: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

NH General Fund Revenues (Current $)

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

State Fiscal Year

Mill

ion

s o

f D

olla

rs

Taxes and rates in place in 1988

Mediscam

New taxes

Increased rates

$543

$881

34

Page 37: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

NH General Fund Taxes as % of Gross State Product, 1971-2005

1.50%

1.75%

2.00%

2.25%

2.50%

2.75%

3.00%

3.25%

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Year

Includes all regular state GF taxes but does not include Medicaid enhancement, tobacco settlement, rebates, etc.

35

Page 38: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Balancing the NH General Fund, 1979-2007

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,60019

79

198

1

198

3

198

5

198

7

198

9

199

1

199

3

199

5

199

7

199

9

200

1

200

3

200

5

200

7

State Fiscal Year

Mill

ion

s o

f D

olla

rs

Non-tax Revenue:Medicaid EnhancementTobacco SettlementFlexible Federal Grant (2003-04)

General Fund Expenditures

Merrill

Gregg

Sununu

Gallen

Shaheen

Lynch

Benson

Regular General Fund Taxes and Revenues

36

Page 39: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

A Structural Deficit?

37

Page 40: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

What is a “Structural Deficit”?

A “structural deficit” is a situation where, with no change in tax laws or public services, tax revenues do not increase as fast as expenditures.

38

Page 41: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Growth in Comparison to the GSP, 1988-2005

0%20%40%60%80%

100%120%140%160%180%200%220%240%260%280%300%320%340%360%380%400%

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

State Fiscal Year

Rel

ativ

e to

Gro

ss S

tate

Pro

du

ct

Real Expenditures 1988=1.00 Communications Tax

tax was restructured

increased from 5.5% to 7%

39

Page 42: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Growth in Comparison to the GSP, 1988-2005

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

State Fiscal Year

Rel

ativ

e to

Gro

ss S

tate

Pro

du

ct

Real Expenditures 1988=1.00 Beer TaxBoard and Care Fees Dog & Horse RacingCourt Fines & Fees

40

Page 43: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Tobacco Tax Growth in Comparison to the GSP, 1988-2005

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

State Fiscal Year

Rel

ativ

e to

Gro

ss S

tate

Pro

du

ct

Real Expenditures 1988=1.00 At Actual Rate At 1988 Tax Rate

1990:increased to

21¢/pack

1998:increased to

37¢/pack1991:

increased to 25¢/pack

1988-89:17¢/pack

41

Page 44: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Growth in Comparison to the GSP, 1988-2005

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

State Fiscal Year

Rel

ativ

e t

o G

ross

Sta

te P

rod

uc

t

Real Expenditures 1988=1.00 Business Profits Tax Estate & Legacy Tax

42

Page 45: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Growth in Comparison to the GSP, 1988-2005

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

State Fiscal Year

Rel

ativ

e to

Gro

ss S

tate

Pro

du

ct

Real Expenditures 1988=1.00 Meals & Rooms Tax Real Estate Transfer Tax

"temporary" surcharge added in 1990

43

Page 46: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Does New Hampshire Have a Structural Deficit?

“New Hampshire can be characterized as having a long-term structural deficit in the sense that for a given scope of programs and revenue system, expenditures grow automatically faster than revenues.”

KPMG Peat Marwick

February 13, 1992

44

Page 47: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

So What? Recognize need to scale back on state activities OR

recognize the necessity to raise tax rates or add new taxes to maintain a constant level of services.

Results in more detailed review of all state programs every biennium because there is always a looming shortfall.

Reduces possibility of surpluses for investment in desirable one-time projects.

Makes long-term strategic planning more difficult.

45

Page 48: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Conclusions?

Absent significant policy changes, historic growth in primary drivers of state budget will continue.

Over the past 15 years, ‘natural’ revenue growth has been outpaced by appropriations constant changes to tax structure including increased rates and new taxes.

Absent significant policy changes which slow growth in primary drivers, appropriations likely to outstrip revenue growth revenue structure changes or ‘tinkering.’

Both revenue and expenditure side driven by economic changes ….

46

Page 49: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Upcoming Publications

Plumbing the Numbers #14 – An Education Finance Update (End of January)

Medicaid Trends 2004-2006 (End of February)

New Hampshire Revenue Update (End of February)

Page 50: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Questions?

Page 51: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Total Authorized Positions: 1.2% Growth Per Annum

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

FY1997

FY1998

FY1999

FY2000

FY2001

FY2002

FY2003

FY2004

FY2005

FY2006

Includes temporary, part time, classified and unclassified

Page 52: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Distribution of Change in Authorized Positions 1997-2006

(200)

(100)

-

100

200

300

400

500

DH

HS

Total

NH

CT

C

Corrections

Safety

Adm

inS

ervices

Em

ployment

Security

Transportation

Education

Office of Info

Tech

Other

Shift from other agencies

Includes temporary, part time, classified and unclassified

Page 53: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Annual Growth (1998-2007) In General Fund Salary and Wages

8%

6%

10%

7%

9%

2%

8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Class 10 Class 11 -16

Class 18(Overtime)

Class 19Holidays

Class 50Part Time

Class 59full-time

temporary

Total

Page 54: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

When Reductions May Not be Reductions

Federal Funds Substituting for General Funds

Programmatic Changes

Page 55: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

($30.00)

($20.00)

($10.00)

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

Cha

nge

in P

er C

apita

App

ropr

iatio

n

Medicaid Provider Payments

Retirement System

Special

School Building Aid

Corrections

AFDC NH Hospital

Mental Health Services

State Sewer Aid

Ski Operations

Municipal Revenue Sharing

Change in Inflation Adjusted Per Capita Appropriation 1997-2007

Page 56: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

CMHC GF Expenditures Decline, but ….

State General Fund Appropriations on Medicaid Community Mental Health Center Services (Per Capita Expenditures Adjusted for

Inflation)

$37.89

$43.24

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

1997 2007

Page 57: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

… total funds (federal funds) increase.

Total (Federal and State) Appropriations on Medicaid Community Mental Health Center Services (Per Capita Expenditures Adjusted for

Inflation)

$43.24$37.89

$25.56 $32.08

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

1997 2007

Other FundsFederal FundsGeneral Funds

$68.80 $69.97

Page 58: New Hampshire Budget History and Drivers Orientation Presentation to Finance/Ways and Means January 10, 2007 Steve Norton Executive Director, NHCPPS “…to

Monthly Count of NH Families Receiving Welfare Assistance

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000Ja

n-81

Jan-

82

Jan-

83

Jan-

84

Jan-

85

Jan-

86

Jan-

87

Jan-

88

Jan-

89

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Month

Fam

ilie

s

AFDC/TANF