New Fuels and Technologies for

Powertrains

State of the Art and prospective for the

Automotive IndustryOscar Ciordia

FITSA FoundationGM

Yet another summary & crystal ball?

• The world is full of congresses, scientific publications, books, etc… describing the Transport Sector efforts on solving the sustainability issues and trying to guess the future.

• BUT… • Is there a complete, rigorous, synthesis of

all the eforts?• Is there a compelling synthesis on the

views for the future?• The answer is NO

Goal

• Make a thorough knowledge search on the scientific literature for all the technical proposals on powertrains and alternative fuels.

• Synthesis and coherence work to build a manual that compiles in a brief publication tons of written papers and abstracts.

• Review all the relevant forecasts on future technology share and look for agreements. Build the most agreeded upon future based on it.

Topic of today

• We will describe the process and results from the forecasting exercise. – Benefit: Conclusions of the final

forecast.• The work is currently just in Spanish.

FITSA is glad to give the rights for translation and publication in any other language for non profit purposes.

Methodology (I)

• Based on the well known Delphi method.– The Delphi method is based on the assumption

that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.

– The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the cold war to forecast the impact of technology on warfare: http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/2006/P3925.pdf It was developed by Project RAND during the 1950-1960s (1959) by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Resche

Methodology (II)• Key characteristics and benefits of Delphi:

– Structuring of information flow• The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the form of answers

to questionnaires and their comments to these answers. • The panel director controls the interactions among the participants by

processing the information and filtering out irrelevant content. • This avoids the negative effects of face-to-face panel discussions and solves

the usual problems of group dynamics.– Regular feedback

• Participants comment on their own forecasts, the responses of others and on the progress of the panel as a whole.

• At any moment they can revise their earlier statements. While in regular group meetings participants tend to stick to previously stated opinions and often conform too much to group leader, the Delphi method prevents it.

– Anonymity of the participants• Usually all participants maintain anonymity. Their identity is not revealed even

after the completion of the final report. • This stops them from dominating others in the process using their authority or

personality, frees them to some extent from their personal biases, minimizes the "bandwagon effect" or "halo effect", allows them to freely express their opinions, encourages open critique and admitting errors by revising earlier judgments.

Process followed (I)

• 1st: Different technical alternatives for fuels and propulsions analyzed in detail with the following criteria:– Socioeconomic impact.– Energy efficiency.– Pollutants and CO2 emissions.

• 2nd: Definition of key parameters:– By selected experts from all affected actors.– Affecting the future viability of the

technology.

Key parametersKey factor Description and influence variables

1. Raw material and energy sources.

Raw material and energy resources availability.

2. Technological and business resources

Technology and business model development stage.

3. Market Fuel supply infrastructure. Vehicle market development stage. Overall cost of ownership (vehicle cost + fuel cost)

4. Environmental benefits

GHE. Pollutants emissions.

5. Energy benefits. Energy efficiency

6. Socio-political aspects

Political commitment, legal framework. Social benefits, especially in regards with employment User perception.

Process Followed (II)• 3rd: A weight was assigned to each parameter according

with its influence on the market introduction.

Parameter Weight (1-10) Weight (%)

Raw material and resources availability. 7 7.95

Technological state of development 9 10.23

Fuel supply infrastructure. 10 11.36

Availability of vehicles in the market 5 5.68

Sales volume 5 5.68

Overall cost of ownership (vehicle cost + fuel cost) 10 11.36

GHE emissions 7 7.95

Pollutants emissions 7 7.95

Energy efficiency 8 9.01

Political commitment, legal framework. 9 10.23

Social benefits, especially in regards with employment 5 5.68

User perception 6 6.82

Process Followed (IV)• 4th: For each technology rank each parameter according

to a 1 to 5 scale on 2007-2010-2015-2020 time steps

Current (2007) 2010 2015 2020

HCCI 4,00 3,83 3,67 3,67

CAI 3,80 3,80 3,60 3,60

Biodiesel 2,50 3,50 3,88 4,38

Bioethanol 2,38 3,38 3,88 4,25

GTL 3,43 3,57 3,86 3,57

BTL 2,14 2,43 3,14 3,57

Lignocelulósic Ethanol 1,67 2,17 3,83 4,17

Natural Gas 4,57 4,57 4,43 4,00

PLG 4,14 4,00 3,86 3,71

Electric Vehicles 3,29 3,57 4,00 4,29

Hibrid Vehicles 3,43 3,43 3,71 3,86

Fuel Cells 2,00 2,56 3,11 4,00

Hidrogen on ICE 2,33 2,67 3,33 3,78

Process Followed (V)• 5th: A final score was calculated using each

parameter weight.

Technology/Fuel 2007 2010 2015 2020

HCCI 2.87 2.99 3.23 3.33

CAI 2.80 2.89 3.11 3.14

Biodiesel 3.19 3.59 3.91 4.00

Bioethanol 3.02 3.46 3.77 3.90

GTL 2.49 2.71 3.14 3.27

BTL 2.44 2.66 3.31 3.59

Lignocellulosic ethanol 2.30 2.57 3.50 3.80

Natural Gas 3.07 3.33 3.52 3.57

LPG 2.72 2.85 3.08 3.10

Electric Vehicles 2.79 3.02 3.43 3.75

Hybrid Vehicles 3.16 3.48 3.86 4.01

Fuel Cell vehicles 2.32 2.64 3.17 3.78

Hydrogen in ICE 2.33 2.64 3.15 3.61

Process: Summary

Parameter Selection

Parameter weight selection For each technology.Parameter scoring by experts

For each technology.Calculate Global Indicator

Delphi second round

Final Global Indicator for each technology

Results (Powertrains)

• ICE will remain on leadership for next future due to its cost, investments, reliability and fuel flexibility.• HCCI and CAI will increase share very, very slowly.• HEV and EV considerable penetration rate short-mid term helped by Policy support.• FC slow penetration conditioned by infrastructure (also for H2 in ICEs) and Technology development.

Results (Fuels)

• Biodiesel, bioethanol, GTL, BTL increase share on 2015 with 2nd generation biofuels.• BTL shows higher penetration rate starting with high scale production. Better environment and efficiency behavior helps. Same trend for Ligno-ethanol.• LPG and NG increase penetration with NG winning. NG is a clear winner for most UE countries.• H2 grows slow due to infrastructure.

Discussion (I)• The best discussion is to put ourselves face

to face with the plethora of forecasts:

EUCAR EARPA

FURORE

HYNET

HYWAYS

Discussion (II)

• FI (intro date) date when the technology or fuel penetration will start;• FC (consolidation date) > 80% market penetration is expected.

• R&D period (in red); • Market growth (in yellow);• Mass penetration (in green).

Road Maps key messages agreed• Some modifications as i.e. EGR, catalysts, etc, are already in the market and they are undergoing an important development. The rest of the modifications as Stop & Start, DPF, etc will be probably introduced in a short-term in all vehicle models • Alternative fuels as GTL and LPG, will not consolidate in the market. Due to the fact that they do not entail any GHE reduction. • Biofuels and in the mid-term the second generation biofuels are one of the most promising alternatives to reduce GHE and petrol dependence followed in the long-term by hydrogen generated by renewals. • HCCI and CAI are proposed as a bridge towards fuel cell propulsions although it seems that they will not dominate the market. • HRV and EV are good alternatives but it is necessary to accommodate current electric infrastructure and its technological development. “Cross the Chasm”• FC will increase market share slowly as it will also be the case with hydrogen in ICE. (Yet another infrastructure??)

Summary (90% of world agrees)

• Clear future trend towards energy diversification and the coexistence of different technologies and fuels. • Each technology will impact on different market niches attending to their fitness for different applications.

Most likely scenario will be controlled by a high percentage of more efficient petrol and diesel propulsions and with a higher specific performance.

For alternative fuels the European objective of 20% of total consumption by 2020 will be probably reached thanks to the usage of biofuels, second generation biofuels and natural gas.

Market share for EV and HEV will reach more than 10% in 2015 thanks to cost reductions (economies of scale and technological development).

As far as hydrogen in ICE is concerned, it will participate in this diversification as well, although it will probably be replaced in the long-term by FC based propulsions as soon as the technology and the infrastructure are developed and cost is decreased.

Thanks for your attention!!!

For more information: www.fundacionfitsa.org