New Forth Crossing cost analysis 2014

8/12/2019 New Forth Crossing cost analysis 2014

1/73

1

THEQUEENSFERRY

CROSSING


2/73

2

THIS TALK DEALS WITH ONLY

ONE ASPECT OF THE FRC

THE 1.5Bn COST


3/73

3

Firsta wee bit history

4thApril 2000

Holyrood Building Debate

A presentation was arranged prior to the debate

ONLY SIXTEEN MSPs TURNED UP

15thJanuary 2009- Forth Replacement Crossing Debate

Scotlands biggest ever project.

ONLY SEVENTEEN MSPs TURNED UP

So before we start lets deal with the politicians


4/73

4

SCOTLANDS RECENT

MAJOR PROJECTS RECORD

UK average motorway cost per

mile is 30m

M8 motorway missing link andother work to cost 415m

M8 was 70m per mile


5/73

5

EDINBURGH TRAMS

Now over

1,000 millionThe TIE Directors who made a mess of this resigned

They were awarded severance payment totalling

406,635.

Originally 2003 cost was 375 million


6/73

6

SKYE BRIDGEcost 25m

now 93m

BORDERS

RAILWAY

Was 155m now 295M

Edinburgh Infirmary

Cost 185mRepayment 1,000+

Stirling-Kincardine

Railway line-just finishedneeds to be rebui l t

Would you like to see some more

disasters for the taxpayer?


7/73

7

Wendy AlexanderSarah Boyack Iain Gray Nicol Stephen

Tavish Scott Jack McConnell Stewart Stevenson Keith Brown

Holyrood started business in 1999

How many Ministers of Transport

do you think have been appointed ?

Less than two years in office????


8/73

Alex S

870 of the 1,041 orders have gone to Scottish companies (84%)

Somethings missing Alex!!

118 Subcontracts awarded to Scottish firms from the total of 155 (76%)

First Ministers Questions 2 Feb 2012


9/73

Who is actually building the bridgeCONTRACT COMPANY NATIONALITY

CONSTRUCTIONCONSORTIUM

DRAGADOS SPANISH

HOCHTIEF GERMAN

AMERICAN BRIDGE USA

MORRISON CONSTRUCTION ENGLISH (Now)

9

CONTRACT COMPANY NATIONALITY

MAJOR

MANUFACTURERS

Zhenhua Heavy Industries CHINATecade-Megusa SPAIN

Crist-Gdansk POLAND

Cleveland Bridge ENGLAND

Scottish contractor awards = 143 million (1%)

870 of the 1,041 orders have gone to Scottish companies (84%)

118 Subcontracts awarded to Scottish firms from the total of 155 (76%)


10/73

BEFORE WE

START

10

3 TECHNICAL

ASPECTS


11/73

Cable Stayed Bridge

11

Before we begin you should be you should be

aware of the difference between these structures

A SUSPENSION BRIDGE

A CABLE STAYED BRIDGE

A MULTIMODAL BRIDGE

SUSPENSION BRIDGE STRUCTUREORIGINAL FORTH ROAD BRIDGE


12/73

12

Cable Stayed Bridge

The New Forth Bridge


13/73

13

PROPOSED FRC STRUCTUREWAS MULTIMODAL


14/73

14

LETS START WITH A LOOK AT THE

GOVERNMENTS COST OF THE 1965

FORTH ROAD BRIDGE

Their 1965 cost is 19.5m

Their 2005 inflation figure is 250

My 2016 inflation figure is 340m

Their data can be verified on their web


15/73

15

STRUCTURE COST COMPARISON

The old bridge is a

SUSPENSION BRIDGE

The new bridge is a CABLE

STAYED BRIDGE

Structural engineers will tell you that suspension bridges are

10% more expensive than cable stayed bridges

SO WHY IS THE NEW BRIDGE

5 TIMES MORE EXPENSIVE

Made in

UK

Made in

China

16 miles of road

24 other bridges8 miles of roadNo other bridges


16/73

16

NOWADAYSCana cable stayed bridge of

similar structure be built for around 340m

OF COURSE IT CAN - I T HAS BEEN DONE

ANDby one of the main contractors

involved with Scotlands FRC


17/73

Hong Kongs Stone Cutters Bridge

Examine the location

Over one of the worlds busies sea routes

Land prices 10 times the cost

Located over a built up area

Please examine the access roads...

And the cost??

245m


18/73

18

THE COST FLUCTUATION FARCE

THE COST REVISIONS ARE QUITE STAGGERING

DESIGN CHANGES ARE MINIMAL

ONE CHANGE ILLUSTRATES THE POINT


19/73

19

No Date Source Cost

2 Jan 05 Faber and Maunsell 500m

1 Jun 04 FETA 500m

3 Feb 07 Scottish Government 1,000+m

4 Dec 07 Scottish Government 2,790 to 3,630m

5 Jan 08 Scottish Government 3,250 to 4.220m

7 Mar 11 Scottish Government 1,470 to 1.620m

6 Sep 09 Scottish Government 1,700 to 2,300m

4,220m


20/73

20SKYSCRAPERCITY.COM

Scotland to build theWorld's most expensive bridge

This pretty average 2km bridge

has a budget of up to 4.2 billion

This is a larger amount than even the entire

Fehmarn Belt project.

Scottish Finance Secretary, John Swinney,

announced "Forth Replacement Crossing",


21/73

21

The FRC cost here are when the quoted price

was 4,220m

World Bridge Graphs

Lets compare.


22/73

22

COST of VARIOUS TYPES TYPES OF WORLD BRIDGES -M

The FRC was the worlds most

expensive bridge.

36

84

102

106

136

146

163

198

319

357

367

392

497

498

510

561

567

576

796

854

941

1,08

1

1,08

1

4,050

4,1094,220

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500


23/73

23

36

84

102

106

146

163 3

19

367

392

497

561

5

67

5

76

796 9

41 1

,081

4,220

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

COST of ONLY CABLE STAYED BRIDGES -m

Again

the FRC wasby far the most costly


24/73

0240

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100103106109112115118121124127

COMPARATIVE LENGTHof WORLD BRIDGES

The FRC is tiny: a mere 127thin world ranking..


25/73

25

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

WORLD AVERAGE COST PER METRE

200K

The FRC COST PER METRE WAS

1,500

LETS NOW EXAMINE THE COST PER METRE

WEVE SEEN TOTAL COST

LETS NOW CHECK THE COST PER LENGTH1,563


26/73

26

US CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY DATA (Jan 2004)

Between $4k and $5K per square metre

The FRC cost- $60k per sq m.

COST OF (Cable Stayed) BRIDGES

PER SQUARE METRE


27/73

2009

THE WORLDS THREE

MOST EXPENSIVE BRIDGES

27

1st

- Scotlands Multimodal FRC2nd- Japans Pearl Bridge

3rd- Sweden/Denmarks -Oresund Crossing

Cost over 4,000m+ world crossings


28/73

028

2nd-The Pearl Bridge Japan Opened in 1998 for

$4,300m

The worlds longest suspension bridge -3,910m

Tornadoes (180mph)hinged-girder system

Fierce sea currents & deep water

Why is it so expensive

Earthquakes (8.5 Richter scale)TMD pendulumstuned mass damper


29/73

3rd - THE ORESUND CROSSING

29

WORLDS LARGEST

MULTIMODAL CROSSING

An Island

A Bridge

and

A Tunnel


30/73

30

Bridge

Tunnel

DENMARK SWEDEN

Island

SATELLITE VIEW

The Oresund Project

Lets build it in Fife!!!!!


31/73

31

A 4 km Artificial Island


32/73

32

A 4 km multimodal tunnel

Road &

Rail

Tunnel

4050 metres


33/73

33

A 8 km multimodal bridge

Road

& Rail Bridge 8km long

O d C i 4 100 *


34/73

34

Oresund Crossing cost 4,100m *

Oresund Project 8 times the size of the FRC

Built in 5 years; and the FRC???

5 years

* Transport Scotland data says 4,400m

Forth Crossing cost 4,220m


35/73

35

Professor John Kay.

Do you know this man?

Chosen Financial Adviser

to the

SCOTTISHGOVERNMENT.

Public lectureSept 2007 on

the FRC

Expressed astonishment

..more than 4 times the final cost of

the Oresund bridge


36/73

36

THE NEW

MERSEY GATEWAY BRIDGE

Englands MULTI-MODAL Comparison

COMPLETION 2016

STRUCTURE MULTI-MODAL

TYPE CABLE STAYED

LENGTH 2.3 Km

TOWERS 3

LANES 6

COST UNDER 600 million


37/73

37

The Occasion

Project Director

Steve NicholsonFeb. 27th, 2012

The Statement

Dropping the double deck and

other measures will save

..30m


38/73

38

The Occasion

Finance Secretary

John SwinneyScottish Parliament

Dec. 19th, 2007

The Statement

The tram section removed..

A revised saving will be

..580m

D 2009 t i 1 600


39/73

39

Dec 2009 cost is now 1,600m

Lets compare it with

another UK crossing

THE SEVERN BRIDGE


40/73

AN EXCELLENT COMPARISON

Both UK projects

Similar environments

Contemporary

Cable Stayed Structures

40


41/73

041

Second Severn Crossing FORTH REPLACEMENT CROSSING

MADE IN CHINAMADE IN UK

Six+hs Lanes Four+hs5,200 m Length 2,700

18.5 km Roads 4.5 km

4 years Build time 5.5 years810 m Cost 1,500

*Transport Scotland have it at 890m

HardShoulder

FRC IS HALF THE SIZE & TWICE THE PRICE


42/73

42

Three ICONIC world bridges.

Is the FRC really so expensive?


43/73

Greece -Rio Antirio Bridge

WORLDS MOST

DIFFICULT BRIDGE

TO BUILD


44/73

44

2,880 Metres Cable Stayed

No bedrock

64 metre deep Sea crossing Seismic & Tsunami


45/73

45

65 metres

SEA DEPTH

800 i 200 i 2 di 25/30 l


46/73

200 STEEL PIPES

2 METRE IN DIAMETER

30 METRE IN LENGTH

BURIED IN THE SEA BED

46

800 pipes200 per pier - 2m diameter25/30 m long

F i ti CAISSONS


47/73

47

Four gigantic CAISSONS

installed over the pipes


48/73

48


49/73

049

Length

m

Lanes Towers Build

Time

Cost

2016

Rio Antirio 2880 6 4 6.0 576m

Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 1,600m

Rio Antirio

Opened in 2004

at a cost of

630M

WORLDS MOSTDIFFICULT BRIDGE

MILLAU


50/73

WORLDSHIGHEST BRIDGE

MILLAU

VIADUCTFrance

Opened in 2004350m

Lengthm

Lanes Towers BuildTime

Cost2016

Millau 2460 4 7 3 400m

Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 1,600m

VASCO d


51/73

051

VASCO de

GAMA

Opened in 1998

at a cost of$1000m

Length

m

Lanes Towers Build

Time

Cost

2016Vasco de

Gama17200 6 2 1.5 941m

Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 1,600m

EUROPESLONGEST BRIDGE


52/73


53/73

COULD IT BE

SOMEONE DIDNTWANT A TUNNEL?

THEIR LIST IN FAVOUR OF A TUNNEL


54/73

THEIR LIST IN FAVOUR OF A TUNNEL

GOVERMENT LIST AGAINST A TUNNEL


55/73

1. 5km more roadway

3. 4 million tonnes of spoil

4. Multi-modal option needs another tunnel

5. Prohibited goods (like whisky)

8. More expensive

7. No pedestrians or cyclists

6. Would take 7.5 years

2. Special Protection Areas

GOVERMENT LIST AGAINST A TUNNEL

An underground tunnel has less environmental impact.

The bridge is 2.7km the tunnel is 8kmwhy more

The Eurotunnel used their spoil to prevent erosion.

The tram link was dropped simply not valid.

Londons M25 tunnel escort goods- we still have a bridge

How come - the 31 mile Channel Tunnel was built in 6 years

Tourists would prefer the bridge stupid

LETS EXAMINE THIS CLAIM IN DETAIL..


56/73

The best means available to assess this

cost is again by comparison

You are about to see why!!!!

Gotthard Base Tunnel

A single comparison here will suffice

Well use the worlds longest tunnel

ld' l l


57/73

World's longest tunnel

Its very deep too!!!


58/73

Its very deep too!!!


59/73

ROUTE LENGTH 58 km+

Additional shafts 152 km

Construction Time 17 Years

Construction Team 2,600


60/73

4 Giant borers used

simultaneously

T l li i


61/73

Tunnel lining

Cement cladding


62/73

Cement cladding

L t b ild it th


63/73

MAIN SHAFT58 kM

AUXILIARY SHAFTS152 kM

Lets build it across the

Forth for comparison

Oor wee tunnel

Now the Swiss one


64/73

TOTAL COST AS OF NOV 2010

6,300m


65/73

Now the ForthsBored Tunnel Option

FETA commissionedthis study in

JAN 2005

FORTH ESTUARY TRANSPORT AUTHORITYS d F th R d C i C lid t d t


66/73

66

This detailed 80 page report was commission to examine FRC options

Second Forth Road Crossing Consolidated report

Jan 2005 FABER MAUNSELL


67/73

Page 23

..Bored Tunnel cost..


68/73

598M

Why did FETA remove this document from

their web site???


69/73

SCALE MODELS

Forth

tunnel 8km

You wont believe it!!!

Cost 6,300m


70/73

70

The Occasion

Finance Secretary

John SwinneyScottish Parliament

Dec. 19th, 2007

The Statement

I have the cost estimates..

A bored tunnel would cost..

..6,600m

BACK TO HOLLYROOD


71/73

71

I'm still awaiting an answer to the following simple question

Quote to me .. Remember we are just laymen

Not one MSP has questioned these outrageous costs

Labour started this cost fiasco SNP continued

AUDIT SCOTLAND has never investigated these costs

Please provide a list of more

expensive comparable bridges

YOU

JUDGE


72/73

72

Facts do not cease to exist

because they are ignored.Aldous Huxley


73/73

Thank

you

Documents

New Forth Crossing cost analysis 2014