New experiments on WSR 2009-2011 with modern version high res GFS/GSI

Yucheng SongEMC/NCEP/NOAA

GDAS: 300mb v (ave:30-60N) OPR runStrong Linkage with downstream wave packet development

Sampled

Sampled

Sampled

Sampled

2009

Each winter, we should just focus on several events with clear cut wave packet formed

From 2009 run

Positive warm color means forecast improvement, negative for degradation

Forecast comparison w and without the dropsondes, 12Z, Feb 1, 2009 Surface pressure 500m Height

RMSE error comparison w and without dropsondes by GFS/GDAS data impact experiments, 12Z Feb 1, 2009

Surface pressure, averaged over 180W to 60W 30N to 70N

Positive warm color means forecast improvement area

Forecast comparison w and without the dropsondes, 12Z, Feb 24, 2009

RMSE error comparison w and without dropsondes by GFS/GDAS data impact experiments, 12Z Feb 24, 2009

Surface pressure, averaged over 180W to 60W 30N to 70N

2010 – 2011 experimentsScripts are ready Some test runs are done

Data impact on precipitation

Issues

• High resolution T574L64 runs are quite expensive, limited resources

• We found that the location information were stripped from the TEMP messages (WMO limitation)

• Drift effect of the dropsondes should be considered in the future

• ET KF codes need development with more vertical levels and finer scale

• ETKF codes need to consider error statistics from the operational system

• Adaptive targeting is quite effective when properly used