New England RTO Planning Proposal

NPCC General Meeting September 17, 2003

9/17/03 2

NewGeneration

Retirements

TransmissionProjects

LoadForecast

PlanningIsA

Continuum

DSMLRP

Planning Process

RTEP Process

System Needs Assessment (5-10 year horizon)• Reliability• Economic• Inter-Area

Inform Stakeholders

Subject to:• Siting and Licensing• Securing ROW• Financing• Cost Recovery

Regulated Responses(Builder of last resort)

• Transmission Proposals

ISO-NE Identifies an Impact of Proposals on System Needs and Confidence in Successful Implementation and Timing

Full or Partial Regulated Response Required

ISO-NE Formulates System Plan to Maintain System Reliability,Justify Economic Upgrades, and Address Inter-Area Needs

Is Interim Need Identified?

ISO-NE Approval of System Plan

Market Responses(Priority over Regulated Responses)

• Generation (including Distributed Generation)• Demand Side Options (including Demand

Response and DSM/Conservation)• Merchant Transmission

ISO-NE Evaluates Regulated Responses

Other Market Information

Consultation with TEAC subject to Information Policy

Consult with LSEs and Regulatory Agencies

ISO-NE Issues Gap RFP for Non-Transmission Solutions

ISO-NE Evaluates GAP RFP Solutions

Yes

Yes

No

No

Interim Need Met?

No

Yes

RTEPGeographic Scope

HQ

SEMARI

SWCT

BHE

ME

NB

BOST

NH

SME

CMA/NEMAWMA

VT

NY

CT

NOR

Red is a major problem area

Yellow is a problem area

(Subareas with state names generally do not reflect states)

RTEP03 Transmission Problem Areas

BHE Downeast

NE-NB Tie Keswick GCX SPS

ME-NH North-South Corridor

CMP Transformers

MEPCO SPSs

BHE Northern

BHE Ellsworth Area

MIS & Line 396

Western Maine

Northern Vermont

Northern NH

Northwest Vermont

Lakes Region

Southern Vermont

Modnadnock Region

Western NH

Manchester -Nashua Area

NH Seacoast Area

Boston Import Area Western MA

Cape Cod

Central MA

Rhode Island Southeastern MA

Eastern CT Area

Middletown Area

Manchester-Barbour Hill Area

Southwest CT

Boston Area 115 Downtown Boston

CT

North Shore

9/17/03 6

Variability of Timing of New Resourcesfor Import Constrained Areas

Req

uir

ed S

up

ply

–M

W

Year

Demand Response/Distributed Gen. or New Generation

Existing System Capability to Serve LoadGeneration plus Transmission

New Transmission Project

Load plus Reserves

High Forecast

Reference Forecast

Low Forecast

9/17/03 7

Change in Pool Reliability per Change in Sub-Area Load (Yr2004)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

-100 -60 -20 20 60 100 140 180 220 320 400 480 560 640 720

Sub-Area Load and/or Resource Change (MW)

Po

ol R

elia

bili

ty (d

ays/

year

)

BOS

CT

SWCT

NOR

NORCT

BOSsystem as is

SWCT

9/17/03 8

Effects of Changes in Loads or Capacityon LSE Expenses – 2004

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Percentage of Load Increase

Cha

nges

in L

SE

Exp

ense

($ M

illio

ns)

BHE

BOST

CMAN

CT

ME

NH

NOR

RI

SEMA

SME

SWCT

VT

WEMA

SWCTCT

BOST

NOR

WEMA

VT

SEMA

9/17/03 9

NEPOOL Total Change in Resource Cost Due to Congestion as Sub-area Load Increases

Note: LRP assumed to be available to manage shortages that occur as load increases or other resources become unavailable. These LRPs were assumed to have a Resource Cost of $500/MWh. This is equal to the price spike value used when operating reserve is challenged.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Percentage of Load Increase

Ch

ang

es in

Res

ou

rce

Co

st($

Mill

ion

s)

BHE

BOST

CMAN

CT

ME

NH

NOR

RI

SEMA

SME

SWCT

VT

WEMA

SWCT

CT

BOST

NOR

9/17/03 10

-2.0%

-1.5%-1.0%

-0.5%0.0%

0.5%

1.0%1.5%

2.0%2.5%

3.0%

-500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500Load Change (MW)

Ch

ang

e in

NO

x (%

)

BHE BOS CMA CT ME NH NOR RI SEM

SME SWC VT WEM

Change in NEPOOL Aggregate NOX Emissions From Base for Inc./Dec. Load Cases – 2004

9/17/03 11

RTEP• LOLE• Congestion• Fuel Diversity• Emissions• Distributed Resources• Transmission

9/17/03 12

RTO-NE Process• Stakeholder committee similar to TEAC called PAC

(Planning Advisory Committee)• Regional System Plan (RSP) is similar to RTEP but

enhanced as follows:- Will include more detailed information on resource

needs in addition to regulated transmission- More emphasis on interregional coordination- Greater utilization of planning results vs. input to

markets forums for assessing and changing market rules