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New Commission on the
Skills of the American
Workforce
May 2007ETS – Princeton, NJ
www.sedona-edge.com
June 07
What is at stakeWhat is at stakefor America?for America?
A possible free fall of America’s standard of living
Loss of trading markets
America’s hold on intellectual capital of which we had assumed we were the world’s major provider
June 07
Beginnings…
The Situation in 1989The Situation in 1989
0
100
200
300
400
1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987WEEKLY WAGES
Data from the Current Employment Survey of the US Department of Labor - Average real wages corrected for inflation
Why We Created the Why We Created the First CommissionFirst Commission
WorkersWorkers’’ income in free fallincome in free fall
Why We Created the Why We Created the First CommissionFirst Commission
US Productivity growth flatUS Productivity growth flat
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1973-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005
US LABOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
PERIOD
GR
OW
TH R
ATE
June 07
Why We Created the Why We Created the First CommissionFirst Commission
Economists said that wages in Economists said that wages in advanced advanced industrialindustrial nations would nations would fall until they came into equilibrium fall until they came into equilibrium with rising wages in advanced with rising wages in advanced developingdeveloping nationsnations
But some wages are But some wages are risingrising in the in the same advanced nations that were same advanced nations that were leading the lists in lower secondary leading the lists in lower secondary education performanceeducation performance
June 07
What We Found What We Found —— and Assumedand AssumedThese nations were leaving the low skill These nations were leaving the low skill jobs to the lost cost producers and jobs to the lost cost producers and moving up the value chainmoving up the value chain
That required educating many more That required educating many more students to a much higher standardstudents to a much higher standard
We assumed that only the advancedWe assumed that only the advancedindustrial countries could industrial countries could make this investment and make this investment and would not compete on wageswould not compete on wages
June 07
How the World Has How the World Has Changed Since 1990 . . .Changed Since 1990 . . .
And The New Sources ofComparative Advantage
What is the Situation Now?What is the Situation Now?
$245
$250
$255
$260
$265
$270
$275
$280
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
WEEKLY WAGES
High in previous period was $331After boost from productivity uptrend in 90s, now resuming downward curve
1. The Asian Challenge1. The Asian Challenge
1.1. The Asian ChallengeThe Asian Challenge
India and China combined producing India and China combined producing 950,000 engineers per year950,000 engineers per year
About 135,000 engineers per year of About 135,000 engineers per year of international quality (compared to international quality (compared to 60,000 for the US) and growing fast60,000 for the US) and growing fast
Many students who came to US from Many students who came to US from China and India and stayed are now China and India and stayed are now returning. Others are staying homereturning. Others are staying home
Engineer Graduates per YearEngineer Graduates per Year
220,000
600,000
350,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
US China India
India and China combined producing 135,000 India and China combined producing 135,000
engineers per year of engineers per year of international international qualityquality (compared to 60,000 for the US)(compared to 60,000 for the US)
$55,070
$10,000 $4,800$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
US China India
1. The Asian Challenge1. The Asian Challenge
Large fractions of our most Large fractions of our most successful computer and successful computer and communications executives and communications executives and technical subject professors are technical subject professors are from India and China; their loss from India and China; their loss would be a major problem for would be a major problem for the USthe US
June 07June 07
1. The Asian Challenge1. The Asian Challenge
300 million in the US are 300 million in the US are competing against 2.5 billion in competing against 2.5 billion in these two countries. Thus all of us these two countries. Thus all of us are competing against the top 1/8 of are competing against the top 1/8 of them. But less than half of us them. But less than half of us achieve an 8th grade level of literacy achieve an 8th grade level of literacy before leaving high school.before leaving high school.
June 07June 07
1. The Asian Challenge
Both India and China have Both India and China have concentrated for decades on concentrated for decades on educating their elites to world educating their elites to world standards standards -- with our graduate with our graduate schools a linchpin of that schools a linchpin of that strategystrategy..
June 07
1. The Asian Challenge1. The Asian Challenge
In a nutshell, we must figure In a nutshell, we must figure out how our top half can out how our top half can compete against their top 8 compete against their top 8 percent when they are percent when they are charging far less than half of charging far less than half of what we charge for the same what we charge for the same services.services.
June 07
June 07
China and India are just part of the much broader picture
The U.S. was the undisputed attainment leader over the whole of the last century
• The educated elite in the U.S. is becoming a smaller fraction of the world’s educated elite at an increasing speed with every passing year
June 07
Attainment in U.S. is stagnant; many others are overtaking us
June 07
Many others are overtaking us!
June 07
0
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Unite
d Sta
tes
Germ
any
Czec
h Re
publ
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way
Den
mar
k
Cana
da
Slova
k Re
publ
ic
Swe
den
Aus
tria
Japa
n
New
Zea
land
Swi
tzer
land
Unite
d Ki
ngdo
m
Finlan
d
Net
herlan
ds
Hun
gary
Luxe
mbo
urg
Icelan
d
Fran
ce
Aus
tralia
Belgium
Poland
Irelan
d
Kore
a
Gree
ce
Italy
Spa
in
Tur
key
Mex
ico
Port
ugal
1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's
2. THE ATTAINMENT CHALLENGEPERCENT OF WORKING AGE ADULTS
WITH UPPER SECONDARY QUALIFICATIONS
3. Advent of Digitized WorkTom Friedman’s thesis:
Much work, including professional work, is being digitized at an increasing rate.Can be done by anyone anywhere Can be done by anyone anywhere
who has access to the internet.who has access to the internet.Firms are creating worldwide work Firms are creating worldwide work
teams of such peopleteams of such people
4. The Modularization
of Industry
Production of both goods and Production of both goods and services increasingly fragmented services increasingly fragmented and modularand modular
Firms are concentrating on what Firms are concentrating on what they can do best in the world, they can do best in the world, outsourcing everything elseoutsourcing everything else
4. The Modularization
of Industry
The quintessentially American model of The quintessentially American model of the vertically integrated firm is the vertically integrated firm is disappearingdisappearing
Dominance in any particular function Dominance in any particular function subject to constant challenge from subject to constant challenge from another firm that has a better idea another firm that has a better idea ——ideas and the ability to carry them to ideas and the ability to carry them to scale quickly are the key to successscale quickly are the key to success
4. The Modularization
of Industry
June 07
5. Automation of Routine Work
• We were right in 1990: Low skilled work is migrating to low cost producers; American workers no longer competitive in that market
• Transfer takes place not by outsourcing but by transfer of invested capital
June 07
• Routine work is not done only by low-skilled workers; many routine jobs are done by white collar workers
5. Automation of Routine Work
June 07
5. Automation of Routine Work
• But the most important trend is the replacement of people doing routine work by machines that can do it better and cheaper
June 07
June 07
Industrial automation
June 07
Industrial automation
June 07June 07Robotic LawnmowerRobotic Lawnmower
Robomower
June 07
June 07
Nano technology(eg: fibers stronger, lighter and cheaper than steel that can be used for building materials)
June 07
Genetic engineering (eg: a second green revolution of foodstuffs that require no insecticides and much less fertilizer and water to produce a given yield)
June 07
Several technologies available today that can boost auto mileage to 75 or more miles/gallon for mid-size carsHydrogen fuel cells that will produce no pollutants whatsoever
June 07June 07
These and many other These and many other technologies now on the technologies now on the drawing boards have the drawing boards have the potential to replace not just particular jobs potential to replace not just particular jobs
or firms, but entire industries, especially or firms, but entire industries, especially as new energy sources and materials are as new energy sources and materials are introducedintroduced
If the United States is the first tointroduce and commercialize
many of these new technologies, we may be able to sustain a high employment, high wage economy –
If we do not …we have no chance of doing so!
June 07
June 07
Corollary to the decline of routine work is the rise of
non-routine — or creative work.
June 07
This is the work at the top of the value chain — what the world pays the most for: the work of producers, actors, painters, marketing people, teachers, professors, journalists, statesmen, business strategists, economists and software engineers
June 07
Creative — and not just professional — because it implies work that produces something that incorporates the latest technology, the latest fashion, the most powerful and appealing aesthetic, the form or function that just exactly suits the user.
June 07
Top dollar is paid to these people because they are responsible for the emergence and success at scale of new products, new services and new industries
June 07
The country that succeeds will produce and retain more of
these people than any other
June 07
The creative class is restless, anti-bureaucratic and ambitious.
June 07
It is comfortable with ideas, articulate, good at analysis but, even more important, synthesis, pattern recognition and inductive reasoning.
June 07
Its members thrive in chaos, like learning, value excellence, prefer to be in stimulating environments with others like themselves.
June 07
June 07
1. Get it right the first time2. Extend preschool to three and four year
olds for all people, most emphatically among poverty and minority groups
3. Issue competitive grants of $500 for every US child born – to be drawn upon for life for retraining, for work and professional transition as a growth annuity
June 07
4. More choices, more diverse schools, usually run by teachers who respond to high performance standings set by states.
5. Governance – should change or step aside. Lay board’s may be major obstacle. Their 40 to 50 year record –low performing schools in the thousands, more likely, several thousands!
June 07
6. Lop off 11th & 12th grades of high schools – admit students by exams to universities, colleges, community colleges and technical colleges
June 07
7. Create regional economic development authorities
Link economic development policy to training and education strategyEconomic engines based on clustered economic development and high skilled jobs ranging from manufacturing processes, medical and pharmaceutical protocols, chemical washes and solvents for green safety, organizational creativity and the rise of the creative class
June 07
7. Create regional economic development authorities
Greater emphasis on entrepreneurialism
Democratize wealth creation!
June 07
8. Revise standards, assessments and curriculum that meets today’s and future needs
9. Recruit from the upper tier of graduates for teachers. Starting salaries between $95,000 to $110,000 with incentive to earn more based on exceeding performance standards
June 07
10.Place support where it is needed most –less on those who do well anyway
Make educational performance classless, no longer based on advantage and socio-economic circumstance.
Transcend circumstance to achieve universal high performance.
June 07June 07
Prototypical U.S. Industry Prototypical U.S. Industry in 10 Years If All Goes Wellin 10 Years If All Goes Well
Creative work : Research, Development, Design,Marketing and Sales, Global Supply Chain Management, Etc.
Routine work done by machines
In the United States
In Less Developed Countries
Routine work doneby people
June 07
Modeling the Last 2 DecadesModeling the Last 2 Decades
Industry I Industry IIIIndustry II
Top Skills/Income
Middle Skill/Income
Bottom Skills/Income. .. … . . .. . .. … . . .. . .. … . . ..
. .. … . . .. . .. … . . .. . .. … . . .. . .. … . . .. . .. … . . .. . .. … . . .. . .. … . . .. . .. … . . ..
NB: Dots represent jobs lost to outsourcing and automation
June 07
The American Economy in The American Economy in 10 Years With 10 Years With Current Current
DynamicDynamic
Industry I Industry IIIIndustry II
Top Skills/Income
Middle Skill/Income
Bottom Skills/Income. .. … . . .. . .. … . . .. . .. … . . .. .. … . . ..
. .. … . . .. . .. … . . .. . .. … . . .. . .. … . . .. . .. … . . .. . .. … . . .. . .. . .. .
. .. . .. .. .. . .. .. .. . .. .. .. . .. .. .. . .. .
. .. .. .. . .. ... .
NB: Dots represent jobs lost to outsourcing and automation
June 07
June 07
June 07June 07
Continuous Innovation and Continuous Innovation and Learning Learning ——The Only Source The Only Source of Competitive Advantageof Competitive Advantage
Our own researchOur own researchPresidentPresident’’s Council on Science s Council on Science and Technologyand TechnologyCouncil on CompetitivenessCouncil on CompetitivenessMIT Industrial Performance CenterMIT Industrial Performance Center
June 07June 07
Geox ShoesGeox ShoesHow Mario Polegato, in Reno, cut holes in How Mario Polegato, in Reno, cut holes in the soles of his shoes to vent perspirationthe soles of his shoes to vent perspirationStarted 1995 Started 1995 ——30 patents later30 patents later……5,000 employees worldwide; company worth 5,000 employees worldwide; company worth $1.5 billion$1.5 billionShoes designed in Italy, made in Rumania Shoes designed in Italy, made in Rumania and Chinaand ChinaLegacy of regional skills in shoemakingLegacy of regional skills in shoemakingBig continuing investments in research and Big continuing investments in research and technologytechnology
June 07June 07
Avondale MillsAvondale MillsOldest continuing textile manufacturing Oldest continuing textile manufacturing company in U.S.company in U.S.$1 billion in sales$1 billion in salesInvests heavily in applied technology and Invests heavily in applied technology and innovation, including noninnovation, including non--woven textiles woven textiles and and ““smart fabricssmart fabrics”” based on based on nanotechnologynanotechnologyWinner of 2002 Innovation Award from Winner of 2002 Innovation Award from Textile WorldTextile World magazinemagazine
June 07June 07
Timken CompanyTimken CompanyHighly successful manufacturer of Highly successful manufacturer of roller bearings and allied productsroller bearings and allied productsManufacturing highly automatedManufacturing highly automatedLabor content of product very lowLabor content of product very lowManufacturing employees very well Manufacturing employees very well paidpaidCost of manufacturing in U.S. Cost of manufacturing in U.S. outweighed by advantage of locating outweighed by advantage of locating near customernear customer
June 07June 07
Dell ComputerDell ComputerMost successful computer manufacturer in Most successful computer manufacturer in the worldthe worldUses mainly parts available to anyone else, Uses mainly parts available to anyone else, manufactured in worldmanufactured in world’’s low cost s low cost production centersproduction centersFinal assembly in U.S. because costs of Final assembly in U.S. because costs of doing that outweighed by advantages of doing that outweighed by advantages of being able to customize product and deliver being able to customize product and deliver it quicklyit quickly
June 07June 07
The Entertainment IndustryThe Entertainment IndustryMajor exporter, 2nd only to aerospace, Major exporter, 2nd only to aerospace, revenues to grow to $1.8 trillion by 2009revenues to grow to $1.8 trillion by 2009Many separate technologies collapsing Many separate technologies collapsing into one integrated industry with into one integrated industry with repurposed contentrepurposed contentArchetype of industry that depends on Archetype of industry that depends on technological leadership; also of industry technological leadership; also of industry that succeeds by networking and that succeeds by networking and managing disparate teams of highly managing disparate teams of highly creative people creative people Digitization and modularizDigitization and modularization creating ation creating opportunities for India, NZ and othersopportunities for India, NZ and others
June 07June 07
TelecommunicationsTelecommunicationsExample of an industry that may be losing Example of an industry that may be losing technological leadership in crucial areatechnological leadership in crucial area14 countries have greater numbers of 14 countries have greater numbers of broadband subscribers/100 inhabitants broadband subscribers/100 inhabitants than than U.S.; even further behind in wireless U.S.; even further behind in wireless access to internetaccess to internetBroadband is the technology frontier for Broadband is the technology frontier for broad scale improvements in industrial broad scale improvements in industrial productivity; if other countries become the productivity; if other countries become the location for statelocation for state--ofof--thethe--art broadband art broadband development, serious damage could result development, serious damage could result to the U.S. economyto the U.S. economy
June 07June 07
Where Will the CustomersWhere Will the CustomersCome From?Come From?
The WorldThe World’’s Rapidly Expanding Middle s Rapidly Expanding Middle
ClassClass
What What ““middle classmiddle class”” means in Asiameans in Asia
June 07
What Will It Take To Succeed in This Environment?
1.Unique products and services2.Much better education
3.A very different kind of education
June 07June 07
What Will It Take to What Will It Take to SucceedSucceed
In This Environment?In This Environment?Products and Services That Offer Something Products and Services That Offer Something That No One Else Can OfferThat No One Else Can Offer
New TechnologyNew TechnologyGreat DesignGreat DesignGreat New FeaturesGreat New FeaturesSomething That Expresses MeSomething That Expresses MeThe Next The Next ““Big New ThingBig New Thing””Something I Can AffordSomething I Can Afford
June 07June 07
What Will It Take To SucceedWhat Will It Take To SucceedIn This Environment?In This Environment?
State of the Art TechnologyState of the Art TechnologyEnormous CreativityEnormous CreativityEndless InnovationEndless InnovationHigh Levels of Knowledge and CompetenceHigh Levels of Knowledge and CompetenceAbility to Deal With ComplexityAbility to Deal With ComplexityFlexibilityFlexibilityConstant Organizational and Personal LearningConstant Organizational and Personal LearningFlexibility, Grit, Determination, ResourcefulnessFlexibility, Grit, Determination, ResourcefulnessEmpathyEmpathyIntimate Knowledge of Societies Around the Intimate Knowledge of Societies Around the GlobeGlobe
June 07June 07
Role of Traditional AchievementRole of Traditional Achievement
Importance of strong foundation in math Importance of strong foundation in math and science for maintaining technology and science for maintaining technology leadershipleadershipImportance of language skills for crucial Importance of language skills for crucial function of communicationsfunction of communicationsImportance of analytical skills for broad Importance of analytical skills for broad range of economic functionsrange of economic functions
June 07June 07
Importance of the Importance of the ““Creative ClassCreative Class””
HighHigh--end, high margin depends on this talentend, high margin depends on this talentUS used to have a corner on these peopleUS used to have a corner on these peopleNow global competition for themNow global competition for them1/4 of scientists and engineers, 40% of 1/4 of scientists and engineers, 40% of engineering professors, more than half engineering professors, more than half of Ph. Ds in engineering, computer science and of Ph. Ds in engineering, computer science and life sciences are foreign bornlife sciences are foreign bornFilm and music industries world wide magnets Film and music industries world wide magnets for talentfor talentSurvival depends on growing our ownSurvival depends on growing our own
June 07June 07
In a NutshellIn a Nutshell
Much Better EducatedMuch Better EducatedWe will have to match the top We will have to match the top nations in performance on PISA nations in performance on PISA in language, math and sciencein language, math and science
Very Differently EducatedVery Differently EducatedMajor changes needed in Major changes needed in standards, assessments, standards, assessments, curriculum and pedagogy to curriculum and pedagogy to reflect new requirements reflect new requirements
June 07June 07
What We Have Going For Us
and…
The Challenges Ahead
June 07June 07
What WeWhat We’’ve Had Going For Usve Had Going For UsSuperior Infrastructure For Investment in Risky Superior Infrastructure For Investment in Risky EnterprisesEnterprisesLow Penalties for Failure of Unsuccessful EnterprisesLow Penalties for Failure of Unsuccessful EnterprisesGlobal Magnet For Bright, Ambitious, Well Educated Global Magnet For Bright, Ambitious, Well Educated PeoplePeopleBiggest National Investment in Basic ResearchBiggest National Investment in Basic ResearchBest Graduate Education in the WorldBest Graduate Education in the WorldStrong System of Elite Education in the Lower SchoolsStrong System of Elite Education in the Lower Schools
June 07June 07
The Challenges IThe Challenges IUS has a very weak system of primary and US has a very weak system of primary and secondary education, most of our colleges are of secondary education, most of our colleges are of indifferent quality and only our postgraduate indifferent quality and only our postgraduate institutions set the world standard institutions set the world standard If nothing is done, future for the If nothing is done, future for the majoritymajority of our of our children and for adults with low literacy is much children and for adults with low literacy is much bleaker than is widely assumedbleaker than is widely assumedRising proportions of our population made up of Rising proportions of our population made up of groups that have very low attainmentgroups that have very low attainment
June 07June 07
Challenges IIChallenges IIChina has a strategy to raise the performance of China has a strategy to raise the performance of the rural poor and the urban elite; Indiathe rural poor and the urban elite; India’’s policies s policies weak, but elite education steadily expanding weak, but elite education steadily expanding anyway, responding to demandanyway, responding to demandNCLB has raised the bar at the bottom, but NCLB has raised the bar at the bottom, but probably at the expense of lowering the probably at the expense of lowering the performance of all our other studentsperformance of all our other studentsWe need, and do not have, powerful, We need, and do not have, powerful, coordinated strategies for greatly raising the coordinated strategies for greatly raising the floor and expanding the peaks floor and expanding the peaks
June 07June 07
The Challenges IIIThe Challenges IIIHighly educated foreign nationals either not coming Highly educated foreign nationals either not coming here to get educated or returning home when they here to get educated or returning home when they get their degreesget their degrees
Public disinvestment in higher educationPublic disinvestment in higher education
Public and private disinvestment in basic researchPublic and private disinvestment in basic research
Technical education greatly diminishedTechnical education greatly diminished
Our elementary and secondary education system Our elementary and secondary education system getting progressively less efficientgetting progressively less efficient
Global companies no longer dependent on our Global companies no longer dependent on our education systemeducation system’’s resultss results
June 07June 07
Drivers of High Performance?Drivers of High Performance?The OECD AnalysisThe OECD Analysis
1. The best performers2. The greatest value3. Challenge and support: An analytical construct4. The drivers5. The “knowledge society” and “knowledge work”6. Are we trying to build “knowledge worker” skills
with an industrial age education system?
June 07June 07
OECD: Greater Equity and OECD: Greater Equity and Higher PerformanceHigher Performance
FinlandFinlandNetherlandsNetherlandsJapanJapanBelgiumBelgiumSwitzerlandSwitzerlandAustraliaAustralia
Czech RepublicCzech RepublicDenmarkDenmarkFranceFranceSwedenSwedenAustriaAustriaGermanyGermany
June 07June 07
OECD: OECD: Best Best Value for ExpenditureValue for Expenditure
AustraliaAustraliaBelgiumBelgiumCanadaCanadaCzech RepublicCzech Republic
FinlandFinlandKoreaKoreaJapanJapanNetherlandsNetherlands
June 07June 07
OECD:OECD:Challenge and SupportChallenge and Support
Strong performance
Systemic improvement
Conflict
Demoralisation
Poor performance
Stagnation
Poor performance,Improvements idiosyncratic
HIGH SUPPORT
LOW SUPPORT
LOW CHALLENGE HIGH CHALLENGE
June 07June 07
OECDOECD’’S S DRIVERSDRIVERS
High ambitionsHigh ambitionsClear standardsClear standardsAccountability and Accountability and intervention in inverse intervention in inverse proportion to successproportion to successAccess to best Access to best practice and quality practice and quality professional professional developmentdevelopment
Devolved Devolved responsibility, the responsibility, the school as center of school as center of actionactionIndividualized learningIndividualized learningIntegrated educational Integrated educational opportunitiesopportunitiesHigh quality pastoral High quality pastoral carecare
June 07June 07
OECD: Education for aOECD: Education for aKnowledge SocietyKnowledge Society
The tradition of education systems has been “knowledge
poor”
National prescription
Professional judgement
Informed professional judgement, the teacher as a
“knowledge worker”Informed prescription
Uninformed professional judgement
Uninformed prescription, teachers implement
curricula
THE FUTURE OF EDUCATION
Creating a knowledge-rich profession in which schools and teachers have the authority to act, the necessary knowledge to do so wisely, and
access to effective support systems
June 07June 07
THESIS:THESIS:
We are trying to We are trying to produce 21st produce 21st century knowledge workerscentury knowledge workerswith a 20th century systemwith a 20th century systemdesigned to produce designed to produce workers for aworkers for amass production economymass production economy
June 07June 07
Should We Be Hiring Further UpThe Queue and Changing the
Progression Through the System?
1. Teacher and leader quality2. System efficiency3. Student Motivation
4. Competition and innovation
June 07June 07
The Quality of Teachers The Quality of Teachers and Leadersand Leaders
What would we have to do to hire (and retain) much What would we have to do to hire (and retain) much higher off the queue?higher off the queue?
amount and structure of compensationamount and structure of compensationtrainingtrainingwork organization and management systemwork organization and management systemworkplace cultureworkplace culture
Should we adopt a system similar to that of the British to Should we adopt a system similar to that of the British to recruit and train teachers?recruit and train teachers?How would collective bargaining have to be changed to How would collective bargaining have to be changed to turn teaching into a true profession of turn teaching into a true profession of ““creativescreatives””??
June 07June 07
Where Would We Get the Where Would We Get the Money? Make the System More Money? Make the System More
Efficient!Efficient!
A large fraction of the students who go to A large fraction of the students who go to ““collegecollege”” read at an 8th grade level or lower read at an 8th grade level or lower —— so they are really entering 9th grade, not so they are really entering 9th grade, not collegecollegeNAEP 4th grade reading scores have been NAEP 4th grade reading scores have been level for 30 years while costs have increased level for 30 years while costs have increased by a factor of 2.5. by a factor of 2.5.
June 07June 07
2 Keys to 2 Keys to System EfficiencySystem Efficiency
Getting it right the first time, rather than Getting it right the first time, rather than ““reworkingreworking”” at ever higher cost as our students at ever higher cost as our students get olderget older
Analogy to what our best firms had to do in the late Analogy to what our best firms had to do in the late 70s when attacked by Japanese firms that produced 70s when attacked by Japanese firms that produced better quality at lower costbetter quality at lower cost
Greatly increasing student motivation to take Greatly increasing student motivation to take tough courses and study hard, as the Asians dotough courses and study hard, as the Asians do
The most important explainer of Asian achievement is The most important explainer of Asian achievement is the motivation of their studentsthe motivation of their students
June 07June 07
An Idea: Change the An Idea: Change the Progression Progression
[SEE HANDOUT]
June 07June 07
How Would It Work?How Would It Work?How students progress through the systemHow students progress through the systemThe idea of an examThe idea of an exam--based systembased systemNo dead endsNo dead endsInstitutional competitionInstitutional competitionFree through end of collegeFree through end of collegeDollars follow the studentDollars follow the studentSavings: Remediation, year + of total costsSavings: Remediation, year + of total costsPlowed back into increased teachersPlowed back into increased teachers’’ pay, early pay, early childhood educationchildhood education
June 07June 07
Student MotivationStudent Motivation
The other side of a system with endless The other side of a system with endless ‘‘second chancessecond chances’’How we send the wrong signals to our How we send the wrong signals to our students about what it takes to succeed in the students about what it takes to succeed in the worldworldWhat it would mean to give students many What it would mean to give students many shots at the target shots at the target without moving the targetwithout moving the targetImpact on resources available for two other Impact on resources available for two other key components of motivation: engagement key components of motivation: engagement and supportand support
June 07June 07
The The Liberal ArtsLiberal ArtsRedefinedRedefined
““CollegeCollege”” is where we define general education is where we define general education ——Strong communication and math (analytical) Strong communication and math (analytical) skills,sound conceptual grasp of science, the roots skills,sound conceptual grasp of science, the roots and conditions of democracy, design skills, creativity and conditions of democracy, design skills, creativity in many forms, understanding of other peoples, in many forms, understanding of other peoples, exposure and analysis to the great works of art, exposure and analysis to the great works of art, technological competence, the ability to work in technological competence, the ability to work in teams and to lead,etc.teams and to lead,etc.Here is where we figure out what it actually means to Here is where we figure out what it actually means to learn how to learnlearn how to learnWho should control this agenda? Should states adopt Who should control this agenda? Should states adopt an examination board system? Should boards allow an examination board system? Should boards allow for different concentrations, levels of mastery?for different concentrations, levels of mastery?
June 07June 07
Technical EducationTechnical Education
Very few high schools have the resources to Very few high schools have the resources to offer sound, current technical education offer sound, current technical education programs; only the technical and some programs; only the technical and some community colleges do.community colleges do.So why not let those students who want this kind So why not let those students who want this kind of education go to the institutions that do it well?of education go to the institutions that do it well?Why not put an exploratory front end on the Why not put an exploratory front end on the system, and offer optional courses to qualify system, and offer optional courses to qualify students to take the university board exams?students to take the university board exams?
June 07June 07
Competition and InnovationCompetition and Innovation
Let high schools, community colleges, Let high schools, community colleges, technical colleges and four year colleges technical colleges and four year colleges compete for the new compete for the new ‘‘collegecollege’’ studentsstudentsIf the dollars follow the students, they will If the dollars follow the students, they will compete on quality and innovation and compete on quality and innovation and that competition can only benefit the that competition can only benefit the students and their familiesstudents and their families
June 07June 07
Should We Adopt A Management Schema Designed For Knowledge Workers?
1. Set clear goals and appropriate measures2. Push decisions as to how to achieve those goals as far down in the organization as possible
3. Incent the people on the front line to achieve those goals4. Slim down middle management and change it’s role
from direction to support, support, support5. Measure, analyze and reward
June 07June 07
1. 1. Goals and MeasuresGoals and MeasuresThe critique:The critique:
Standards brokered, not coherent, not matched to this analysis, Standards brokered, not coherent, not matched to this analysis, often provide inadequate guidance as to what is expected, often often provide inadequate guidance as to what is expected, often not relevant because not well matched to testsnot relevant because not well matched to testsTests not the logical extension of curriculum (as in syllabus Tests not the logical extension of curriculum (as in syllabus driven exams), overly driven by psychometric considerations, driven exams), overly driven by psychometric considerations, based on brokered selection of items from test banks, therefore based on brokered selection of items from test banks, therefore no more coherent than standards, not well matched to no more coherent than standards, not well matched to standards, limited to narrow range of cognitive outcomesstandards, limited to narrow range of cognitive outcomes
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1. Goals and Measures1. Goals and Measures
Should we go to a system of national and state Should we go to a system of national and state boards, supplemented by a set of approved boards, supplemented by a set of approved private boards?private boards?Should we replace NAEP with PISA, or should Should we replace NAEP with PISA, or should those states that want to do so adopt PISA?those states that want to do so adopt PISA?What can we learn from the best standards and What can we learn from the best standards and exam systems in the world about what makes exam systems in the world about what makes them effective (eg: Cambridge IGSCE)?them effective (eg: Cambridge IGSCE)?
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2. Devolution2. Devolution
The Critique:The Critique:Authority and responsibility mismatched at every Authority and responsibility mismatched at every level of the system (eg: principals have most of level of the system (eg: principals have most of the accountability and little authority, the the accountability and little authority, the converse for central office decisionconverse for central office decision--makers)makers)Central office controls what it should not (eg: Central office controls what it should not (eg: school staffing patterns and budgets) and does school staffing patterns and budgets) and does not seize control where it should (eg:create not seize control where it should (eg:create effective systems to reward school professionals effective systems to reward school professionals who produce high student achievement and who produce high student achievement and deal with those who dondeal with those who don’’t)t)Result: CanResult: Can’’t hold the front line responsible for t hold the front line responsible for their work and cantheir work and can’’t get the quality we need t get the quality we need therethere
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2. 2. DevolutionDevolutionHow much control over budget, purchasing, program, How much control over budget, purchasing, program, staffing schedule, hiring and firing should a principal staffing schedule, hiring and firing should a principal have? Who should he or she share it with?have? Who should he or she share it with?To what extent should the answer to the first question To what extent should the answer to the first question depend on how well the school is doing? What should depend on how well the school is doing? What should trigger reductions in autonomy? Who decides?trigger reductions in autonomy? Who decides?Should the district and/or school be allowed to contract Should the district and/or school be allowed to contract out functions that would plausibly be performed better or out functions that would plausibly be performed better or cheaper by others?cheaper by others?Should all schools in the district be public charter Should all schools in the district be public charter schools operating under performance contracts?schools operating under performance contracts?
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3. Performance Incentives3. Performance Incentives
The Critique:The Critique:Student incentives to perform at high levels are Student incentives to perform at high levels are very weak, compared to most other countriesvery weak, compared to most other countriesTeachers are mainly incented to be loyal to Teachers are mainly incented to be loyal to those in authority; they have no formal those in authority; they have no formal incentives to produce the highest possible incentives to produce the highest possible student performancestudent performancePrincipalsPrincipals’’ incentives are mainly to play the incentives are mainly to play the politics of central office, please his or her other politics of central office, please his or her other adult constituents and keep the peaceadult constituents and keep the peaceCentral officeCentral office’’s incentives are to maximize their s incentives are to maximize their budget, staff and power at the expense of their budget, staff and power at the expense of their colleaguescolleaguesNone of these people is incented to improve None of these people is incented to improve student performance, the ostensible goal of the student performance, the ostensible goal of the whole systemwhole system
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3. Performance Incentives3. Performance IncentivesHow can we provide How can we provide positivepositive incentives to:incentives to:
TeachersTeachersPrincipalsPrincipalsEntire school facultiesEntire school facultiesCentral office staffCentral office staff
How can we incent more competition among How can we incent more competition among schools?schools?How can we incent faculties to raise the bar for How can we incent faculties to raise the bar for all studentsall students, not just the lowest performers?, not just the lowest performers?Who structures the incentives Who structures the incentives —— state or state or district?district?
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4. Support, Support, Support4. Support, Support, Support
The Critique:The Critique:NCLB and the accountability movement NCLB and the accountability movement generally have tightened the screws, but generally have tightened the screws, but provided very little practical help. Large city provided very little practical help. Large city districts have cut back on an already strained districts have cut back on an already strained curriculum and PD staff. State agencies are curriculum and PD staff. State agencies are at bare bones. Publishers offer little useful at bare bones. Publishers offer little useful assistance. Schools of education staff assistance. Schools of education staff command little respect in the schools. command little respect in the schools. Research is generally low quality. Where is Research is generally low quality. Where is the help to come from?the help to come from?
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4. Support, Support, Support4. Support, Support, SupportThe crucial element here is the systemThe crucial element here is the system’’s capacity to s capacity to support front line professionals, which is now very low; support front line professionals, which is now very low; so:so:
Where is the best of the current capacity?Where is the best of the current capacity?How and where do we concentrate it where it can do the most How and where do we concentrate it where it can do the most good? What is best done at the state level and what is best good? What is best done at the state level and what is best done at the district level? How does coherence play into the done at the district level? How does coherence play into the picture? Is there a role for an inspectorate?picture? Is there a role for an inspectorate?What does central buy and what does it make?What does central buy and what does it make?How do we attract the best people to this work?How do we attract the best people to this work?How do we deploy them?How do we deploy them?
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5. Measure, Analyze, Reward5. Measure, Analyze, Reward
The Critique:The Critique:When virtuous cycle works, staff up and down line are When virtuous cycle works, staff up and down line are incented to constantly improve measured incented to constantly improve measured performance, so they are constantly analyzing performance, so they are constantly analyzing performance for clues that will help them improve it; performance for clues that will help them improve it; the cycle never stops because incentives never endthe cycle never stops because incentives never endSome districts making headway on systems for Some districts making headway on systems for gathering, storing, analyzing and publishing student gathering, storing, analyzing and publishing student performance and related data, but wperformance and related data, but without reward ithout reward element, measuring and analyzing will accomplish element, measuring and analyzing will accomplish littlelittle
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5. Measure, analyze, reward5. Measure, analyze, rewardHow do we build a continuous improvement system that How do we build a continuous improvement system that creates a culture that rewards most those who are creates a culture that rewards most those who are striving for better student performance?striving for better student performance?How do we destroy a system that rewards loyalty over How do we destroy a system that rewards loyalty over performance every time?performance every time?How do we create systems whose incentives to perform How do we create systems whose incentives to perform at ever higher levels outweighs the incentives to use the at ever higher levels outweighs the incentives to use the system to benefit the adults over the students?system to benefit the adults over the students?
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What About Student Support?What About Student Support?
What we have seen abroadWhat we have seen abroadWhat is being tried and what seems to be workingWhat is being tried and what seems to be workingWhy it is importantWhy it is important
Integrated social services in this countryIntegrated social services in this countryWhy mayoral control is importantWhy mayoral control is importantMore time for students who need it for studies More time for students who need it for studies and for personal supportand for personal support
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Do we have the capacity,where we need it, to do
the job?
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Do We Have the Do We Have the Capacity at Central?Capacity at Central?
What capacity does the State Board of Education and What capacity does the State Board of Education and State Department of Education need to play their new State Department of Education need to play their new roles?roles?
Authority?Authority?Compensation?Compensation?Competence?Competence?Organization?Organization?
How should responsibility be divided between state How should responsibility be divided between state and districts? and districts? Should big city systems (and perhaps others) be run Should big city systems (and perhaps others) be run by mayors?by mayors?
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What about those already in the workforce?
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For Those Already For Those Already in the Workforcein the Workforce
Should we eShould we extend the Trade Adjustment xtend the Trade Adjustment Assistance Act to service workforce?Assistance Act to service workforce?Should we create a British style? Should we create a British style? entitlement for low literacy workersentitlement for low literacy workersShould we create a lifetime renewable Should we create a lifetime renewable education fund for adults?education fund for adults?
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Design SpecificationsDesign SpecificationsHigh, clear, coherent High, clear, coherent standardsstandardsAccountability in inverse Accountability in inverse proportion to successproportion to successAccess to best practice and Access to best practice and professional developmentprofessional developmentDevolved responsibility with Devolved responsibility with school at centerschool at centerIndividualizes learningIndividualizes learningIntegrated educational Integrated educational opportunitiesopportunitiesHigh quality student supportHigh quality student support
Standards matched to real Standards matched to real societal requirementssocietal requirementsHigh student motivationHigh student motivationHigh quality staffHigh quality staffStrong incentives on staff to Strong incentives on staff to improve student performance improve student performance on the plains and at the peakson the plains and at the peaksAuthority and responsibility Authority and responsibility matchedmatchedStrong support for staffStrong support for staffHigh system efficiencyHigh system efficiencyCompetition and innovation Competition and innovation
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Space Station's robotic armSpace Station's robotic arm
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Shanghai JiaoTong University (SJTU) Research Institute of Robotics
SOCCER ROBOTS
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NASA Mars RoverNASA Mars Rover
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