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Aishwarya Sonker
[email protected] | Tel: 9122 66303351
Harshita Kain
[email protected] | Tel: 9122 66301851
Arshad Perwez
[email protected] | Tel: 9122 66303080
New cases rise but growth in some economic
indicators better until mid-Mar’21 vs. Feb’21
15 Mar 2021
Summary for the week…
2 Source: Worldometer, As on 15 Mar’21
This is the 44th edition of our COVID-19 tracker:
• COVID-19 situation: India’s total new cases this week rose by 13% vs. 28% last week with fresh waves of infections in Maharashtra, Punjab, Gujarat, MP, Karnataka, TN and Haryana o Active cases in India have risen to 0.22mn, up 16% this week vs. 12% last week
o Almost 32mn vaccine doses administered in India- c.1.9% of the population has received atleast the first dose vs. 21%/4%/36% in US/Russia/UK
o Global vaccines (at c.355mn) are now outpacing global virus cases (c.120mn)
• Economic indicators: o Mar’21 (till 14-Mar) vs. Feb’21 better for- i) property registrations in Maharashtra, ii) railway freight, iii)
e-way bills, iv) power consumption (till 7 Mar) but worse for- i) Vehicle registrations, ii) airlines pax
o Feb’21 vs. Jan’21 was better for: i) e-way bills, ii) property registrations in Maharashtra, but worse for- i) Power consumption, ii) Vehicle registrations excluding PVs weaker partly due to high base
o Rural sector balanced with moderating growth in NREGA days since Nov’20 as migrants return to cities
USA25%
Brazil9%
India9%Russia
4%
UK4%
Others49%
World : Total cases- 120.5mn
USA21%
Brazil10%
India6%Russia
3%UK5%
Others55%
World: Total deaths- 2.7mn
USA23%
Brazil10%
India11%Russia
4%
UK4%
Others48%
World: Total recovered- 97.0mn
Uptick in India’s new cases trajectory; Infections rise
some parts of Europe/US as well
India’s COVID-19 tally 3rd largest in the world
Source WHO as on 14 Mar’21 JM Financial, Note, Cases in China peaked in early Feb 2020 (Day 15-Day 25,
we have not plotted as it stands as an outlier), *7 Day Moving Average
Daily cases growth (CDGR*) in India at 0.19% vs. 0.15%
last week
Source: WHO, JM Financial; As on 14 Mar’21, *CDGR: Compounded daily growth rate
3
India vs. Rest of World
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Day
1
Day
15
Day
29
Day
43
Day
57
Day
71
Day
85
Day
99
Day
11
3
Day
12
7
Day
14
1
Day
15
5
Day
16
9
Day
18
3
Day
19
7
Day
21
1
Day
22
5
Day
23
9
Day
25
3
Day
26
7
Day
28
1
Day
29
5
Day
30
9
Day
32
3
Day
33
7
Day
35
1
Day
36
5
Day
37
9
Day
39
3
Day
40
7
Italy France Spain
Iran Russia US - RHS
India - RHS Brazil - RHS UK - RHS Until
Lockdown
3 days after
the lockdown
2 weeks after
the lockdown
Since
lockdown
Past one
week
China* 44% 34% 29% 1% 0.0%
Italy 24% 19% 16% 2% 0.7%
France 16% 19% 15% 2% 0.6%
Spain 22% 30% 21% 2% 0.2%
Iran 47% 14% 8% 1% 0.5%
India 26% 6% 17% 3% 0.2%
Russ ia 12% 13% 18% 2% 0.3%
UK 17% 19% 16% 2% 0.1%Brazi l 0.6%
US 0.2%
As on 14-Mar-21; * Hubei lockdown
Daily recoveries to daily cases slightly lower WoW for
India
India’s recovery rate dips, death rate moderates
Source Bloomberg, As on 14 Mar’21, JM Financial, Recovery cases not available for UK,
* 7 day Moving Average
India’s deaths-to-positives ratio moderates to 1.40% vs.
1.41% last week
Source: WHO, JM Financial; As on 14 Mar’21, * 7 day Moving Average
4
India vs. Rest of World
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Day
1D
ay
15
Day
29
Day
43
Day
57
Day
71
Day
85
Day
99
Day
11
3D
ay
12
7D
ay
141
Day
155
Day
169
Day
183
Day
19
7D
ay
21
1D
ay
22
5D
ay
23
9D
ay
25
3D
ay
26
7D
ay
28
1D
ay
29
5D
ay
30
9D
ay
32
3D
ay
33
7D
ay
35
1D
ay
36
5D
ay
37
9
China Italy Spain Iran US
India Russia Brazil UK France
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
Day
5
Day
19
Day
33
Day
47
Day
61
Day
75
Day
89
Day
10
3
Day
11
7
Day
131
Day
14
5
Day
15
9
Day
17
3
Day
18
7
Day
20
1
Day
21
5
Day
22
9
Day
24
3
Day
25
7
Day
271
Day
28
5
Day
29
9
Day
31
3
Day
32
7
Day
34
1
Day
35
5
Day
36
9
Day
38
3
France Iran USA
India Russia Brazil
Italy - RHS Spain - RHS
Deaths per test for India remain below most
worst-hit nations….
Testing rises this week
Source Official Heath ministry, Bloomberg, JM Financial
Testing saw a 6.5% uptick this week
Source: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, JM Financial,
5
India vs. Rest of World
Positives per
testsDeaths per tests As on
France 7% 0.2% 14-Mar
Iran 15% 0.5% 09-Mar
Spain 8% 0.2% 11-Mar
US 8% 0.1% 14-Mar
Ita ly 7% 0.2% 14-Mar
India 5% 0.1% 14-Mar
Russ ia 4% 0.1% 13-Mar
Brazi l 43% 1.0% 19-Feb
UK 4% 0.1% 12-Mar
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
24
-05-2
020
14
-06
-20
20
05
-07-2
020
26
-07
-20
20
16
-08-2
020
06
-09
-20
20
27
-09-2
020
18
-10
-20
20
08
-11-2
020
29
-11
-20
20
20
-12-2
020
10
-01
-20
21
31
-01-2
021
21
-02
-20
21
14
-03
-20
21
Total Tests done (7 Day Moving Average)
New infections rise in some states…
6
India: State-wise
As well as lesser-affected states like Punjab, MP and
Gujarat …including worst-affected states like Maharashtra, TN and
Karnataka
Source: CEIC- As on 14-Mar-21, JM Financial, *7 Day Moving Average Source: CEIC- As on 14-Mar-21, JM Financial, *7 Day Moving Average
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
29
-Mar-
20
12
-Apr-
20
26
-Apr-
20
10
-May-
20
24
-May-
20
07
-Ju
n-2
0
21
-Ju
n-2
0
05
-Ju
l-20
19
-Ju
l-20
02
-Aug
-20
16
-Aug
-20
30
-Aug
-20
13
-Sep-2
0
27
-Sep-2
0
11
-Oct
-20
25
-Oct
-20
08
-Nov-
20
22
-Nov-
20
06
-Dec-
20
20
-Dec-
20
03
-Jan-2
1
17
-Jan-2
1
31
-Jan-2
1
14
-Feb-2
1
28
-Feb-2
1
14
-Mar-
21
Delhi Andhra Pradesh Maharashtra
Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh Karnataka
Kerala
New Covid-19 Cases : 7 Day Moving Average
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
29
-Mar-
20
12
-Apr-
20
26
-Apr-
20
10
-May-
20
24
-May-
20
07
-Ju
n-2
0
21
-Ju
n-2
0
05
-Ju
l-20
19
-Ju
l-20
02
-Aug
-20
16
-Aug
-20
30
-Aug
-20
13
-Sep-2
0
27
-Sep-2
0
11
-Oct
-20
25
-Oct
-20
08
-Nov-
20
22
-Nov-
20
06
-Dec-
20
20
-Dec-
20
03
-Jan-2
1
17
-Jan-2
1
31
-Jan-2
1
14
-Feb-2
1
28
-Feb-2
1
14
-Mar-
21
Gujarat Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan
Goa Haryana HP
Chhattisgarh Uttarakhand Punjab
New Covid-19 Cases : 7 Day Moving
India’ s active cases rise to 0.22mn…
7
India: State-wise
…As well as other states like Punjab, Haryana, AP Led by active cases in Maharashtra...
Source: CEIC- As on 15-Mar-21, JM Financial, Source: CEIC- As on 15-Mar-21, JM Financial, *CDGR = Compounded Daily Growth Rate
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
22-0
3-2
020
12-0
4-2
020
03-0
5-2
020
24-0
5-2
020
14-0
6-2
020
05-0
7-2
020
26-0
7-2
020
16-0
8-2
020
06-0
9-2
020
27-0
9-2
020
18-1
0-2
020
08-1
1-2
020
29-1
1-2
020
20-1
2-2
020
10-0
1-2
021
31-0
1-2
021
21-0
2-2
021
14-0
3-2
021
Kerala Punjab Karnataka
Tamil Nadu Maharashtra - RHS
State Total Active
Cases % Share CDGR
All India 2,19,262 2%
Maharashtra 1,27,480 58% 4%
Kerala 29,777 14% -5%
Punjab 11,550 5% 7%
Karnataka 8,383 4% 3%
Tamil Nadu 4,870 2% 3%
Madhya Pradesh 4,740 2% 4%
Gujarat 4,422 2% 6%
Chhattisgarh 4,006 2% 6%
West Bengal 3,143 1% 0%
Haryana 3,095 1% 7%
Rajasthan 2,453 1% 5%
Delhi 2,262 1% 3%
Telangana 1,983 1% 1%
Uttar Pradesh 1,851 1% 1%
Assam 1,619 1% 0%
Andhra Pradesh 1,400 1% 6%
Top 20 districts contribution remains constant since Sep-20
8
Source Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, JM Financial; Covid19India.org- As on 14-Mar-21,
CDGR = Compounded Daily Growth Rate
India: District wise
Top 20 districts constitute c.35% of total cases vs.
36% /39% by end of Sep/Aug The share of the worse-hit top 20 districts of April in total
cases has been steady since Oct-20
Source: Covid19India.org- As on 14-Mar-21
66% 63%
60%
45%
30%
25% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Ap
r-20
May-
20
Jun-2
0
Jul-2
0
Au
g-2
0
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
No
v-2
0
Dec-
20
Jan
-21
Feb
-21
Mar-
21
Share of worse hit top 20 districts of April in total cases
District State State Test
per mn % Total Cases
1 week
CDGR
Delhi Delhi 6,71,045 6% 0.1%
Pune Maharashtra 1,43,401 4% 0.6%
Bengaluru Urban Karnataka 3,00,778 4% 0.1%
Mumbai Maharashtra 1,43,401 3% 0.4%
Thane Maharashtra 1,43,401 3% 0.4%
Chennai Tamil Nadu 2,41,556 2% 0.1%
Nagpur Maharashtra 1,43,401 2% 1.2%
Nashik Maharashtra 1,43,401 1% 0.7%
Kolkata West Bengal 91,088 1% 0.1%
Ernakulam Kerala 3,49,927 1% 0.2%
East Godavari Andhra Pradesh 2,78,331 1% 0.0%
Kozhikode Kerala 3,49,927 1% 0.2%
North 24 Parganas West Bengal 91,088 1% 0.1%
Malappuram Kerala 3,49,927 1% 0.2%
Thiruvananthapuram Kerala 3,49,927 1% 0.1%
Thrissur Kerala 3,49,927 1% 0.2%
West Godavari Andhra Pradesh 2,78,331 1% 0.0%
Kollam Kerala 3,49,927 1% 0.2%
Chittoor Andhra Pradesh 2,78,331 1% 0.1%
Lucknow Uttar Pradesh 1,45,602 1% 0.0%
• The entire vaccination drive will be voluntary with the 1st phase focussing on-
i) 10mn healthcare workers, ii) 20mn frontline workers, and iii) 270mn
persons >50 years, and persons <50 years, but with associated comorbidities
• The 30mn health and frontline workers will be given the vaccine for free –
Centre will bear the cost of the 1st 30mn vaccines (PM Cares Fund)
• 2nd phase of vaccination began from 1 Mar’21 for age groups – i) 60+
years, and ii) 45+ years with comorbidities
Almost 32mn doses administered in India
9
A total of 31.8mn doses were administered in India till
15-Mar’21
The Union budget 2021-22 allocates INR 350bn for
vaccine roll-out in FY22
Vaccine Collaborator Approved on / for
Covishield Oxford - AstraZeneca 3-Jan’21 – for emergency use
Covaxin Bharat Biotech – ICMR 3-Jan’21 – for restricted use
Source: Health Ministry, Media, Bloomberg, JM Financial;
India: Vaccine
Global vaccines outpacing global virus
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
16-J
an-2
1
19-J
an-2
1
22-J
an-2
1
25-J
an-2
1
28-J
an-2
1
31-J
an-2
1
03-F
eb-2
1
06-F
eb-2
1
09-F
eb-2
1
12-F
eb-2
1
15-F
eb-2
1
18-F
eb-2
1
21-F
eb-2
1
24-F
eb-2
1
27-F
eb-2
1
02-M
ar-
21
05-M
ar-
21
08-M
ar-
21
11-M
ar-
21
14-M
ar-
21
Number of people vaccinated daily (mn)
355
120
050
100150200250300350400
14-0
1-2
02
0
14-0
2-2
02
0
14-0
3-2
02
0
14-0
4-2
02
0
14-0
5-2
02
0
14-0
6-2
02
0
14-0
7-2
02
0
14-0
8-2
02
0
14-0
9-2
02
0
14-1
0-2
02
0
14-1
1-2
02
0
14-1
2-2
02
0
14-0
1-2
02
1
14-0
2-2
02
1
14-0
3-2
02
1
Global vaccines administered (mn) Global virus cases (mn)
Doses
administered Per
100 people
% population that
received at least
one vaccine dose
Total doses
administered (mn)
U.S. 32.25 20.9% 107.1
China 3.75 52.5
EU 11.08 7.8% 49.2
India 2.17 1.9% 31.8
U.K. 38.6 35.6% 25.8
Brazil 6.13 4.0% 12.9
Turkey 13.27 9.4% 11.0
Israel 102.63 59.7% 9.3
Germany 10.67 7.3% 8.9
Russia 5.11 3.8% 7.5
France 11.25 7.5% 7.3
Italy 11.1 7.8% 6.7
Pollution levels for select industrial
areas in line with manufacturing PMI
As far as economic activity is considered…
10
Congestion levels almost at 75%+ of last year’s levels in
major cities…
Source TomTom Index,- Taken for peak hours at 7pm; JM Financial Source: CMIE, JM Financial; *Average Pollution index on 500 at 11am on last day of the week: Navi Mumbai,
Ahmedabad, Lucknow, Moradabad, Vishakhapatnam and Chennai in these regions- Airoli, Maninagar,
Talkatora, Lajpat Nagar, GVM Corporation and Manali
India: Indicators
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
-150
-100
-50
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
No
v-1
7D
ec-
17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8M
ay-1
8Ju
n-1
8Ju
l-1
8A
ug-
18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8D
ec-
18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9M
ay-1
9Ju
n-1
9Ju
l-1
9A
ug-
19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9D
ec-
19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0M
ay-2
0Ju
n-2
0Ju
l-2
0A
ug-
20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
No
v-2
0D
ec-
20
Jan
-21
Feb
-21
Mar
-21
Average Pollution Index (Select Industrial areas)Manufacturing PMI- RHS
40% 40% 40%
42%41% 42% 42%
44%
38% 39% 40%38%
51% 51% 51%
46% 46% 46%
56% 56% 56%52% 52% 52%
28
-Feb
07
-Mar
14
-Mar
28
-Feb
07
-Mar
14
-Mar
28
-Feb
07
-Mar
14
-Mar
28
-Feb
07
-Mar
14
-Mar
This year Last year
Mumbai Delhi Bangalore Pune
Growth in railway freight / power consumption higher in Mar-21
11
Power consumption growth at 12.7%YoY in Mar-21 (until
7 Mar) vs. 3.3%YoY in Feb’21
Source: POSOCO, JM Financial; LK* stands for Lockdown
YoY growth in railway freight at 12.4% in Mar’21 (till 14-
Mar’21) vs. 6.8%YoY in Feb’21
Source: Rail drishti, JM Financial
Indicators: Industrial
13%
3%
8%
14%
6%4%
0%
5%
10%
7%8%
3%
8% 8%
5%
7%5%
8%6%
8% 8%
17%15%
9%
13%
20%
12%
10%
5% 6%
11% 10%10%
6%
8%
12%
7% 8%9% 9% 8%
9% 9%
17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
11
-Oct
18
-Oct
25
-Oct
01
-No
v
08
-No
v
15
-No
v
22
-No
v
29
-No
v
06
-Dec
13
-Dec
20
-Dec
27
-Dec
03
-Jan
10
-Jan
17
-Jan
24
-Jan
07
-Feb
14
-Feb
21
-Feb
28
-Feb
07
-Mar
14
-…
Railway Freight Revenue growth (YoY) Loading growth (YoY)
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
08
-Mar-
20
22
-Mar-
20
05
-Apr-
20
19
-Apr-
20
03
-May-
20
17
-May-
20
31
-May-
20
14
-Ju
n-2
0
28
-Ju
n-2
0
12
-Ju
l-20
26
-Ju
l-20
09
-Aug
-20
23
-Aug
-20
06
-Sep-2
0
20
-Sep-2
0
04
-Oct
-20
18
-Oct
-20
01
-Nov-
20
15
-Nov-
20
29
-Nov-
20
13
-Dec-
20
27
-Dec-
20
10
-Jan-2
1
24
-Jan-2
1
07
-Feb-2
1
21
-Feb-2
1
07
-Mar-
21
Power consumption (Weekly sum)% YoY
LK* 2
LK*1
LK* 4
LK* 3
Mar’21 e-way bills growth (till 14-Mar) higher than Feb’21
12
Daily average e-way bills till 14 Mar’21 grew 74%YoY vs.
11.6%YoY in Feb’21
Source: GST Network, JM Financial;
Capacity utilization levels for 2W, Cement & Tractors
above pre-COVID levels
Source: JM Financial; As on 15Mar’21, Based on analyst interactions with companies
Indicators: Industrial
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
2W CV Tractors Cement Steel- JSW Refineries &
Petchem plants
Upstream
companies
Power
PreCOVID April Now%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec-
19
Jan
-20
Feb-2
0
Mar-
20
Ap
r-2
0
May-
20
Jun-2
0
Jul-2
0
Au
g-2
0
Sep-2
0
Oct
-20
No
v-2
0
Dec-
20
Jan
-21
Feb-2
1
1-7
Mar'
21
8-1
4 M
ar'
21
E-way Bills (mn) YoY Growth (RHS)
Mobility trends for workplaces better WoW; 82% of the
INR 3trn MSME Credit guarantee scheme sanctioned by 28-Feb’21
13
Mobility for workplaces down by 11% in the week ending
9-Mar, vs. 13% before that
Source Google Mobility Reports, JM Financial ; Baseline: Median: 3Jan-6Feb’20. * Mobility trends for
places of work, *Weekly Average
Indicators: Industrial
ECLGS 1.0: 82% of INR 3trn sanctioned
Source Ministry of Finance, JM Financial, As on 28Feb21, *Disbursed as of 8 Jan’21
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
25
-Feb-2
0
17
-Mar-
20
07
-Apr-
20
28
-Apr-
20
19
-May-
20
09
-Ju
n-2
0
30
-Ju
n-2
0
21
-Ju
l-20
11
-Aug
-20
01
-Sep-2
0
22
-Sep-2
0
13
-Oct
-20
03
-Nov-
20
24
-Nov-
20
15
-Dec-
20
05
-Jan-2
1
26
-Jan-2
1
16
-Feb-2
1
09
-Mar-
21
All India Maharashtra Delhi TN
AP UP Karnataka 2.5
1.7*
0.20.0*
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Cumulative
amountsanctioned
Cumulative
amount Disbursed
Cumulative
amountsanctioned
Cumulative
amount Disbursed
INR trn
Growth in Electronic Toll Collections moderates on account of
base effect in Feb’21
14
CMIE’s labour force participation rate slightly lower
MoM in Feb’21; remains lower than last year
Source: CMIE, JM Financial
National Electronic Toll Collections growth falls on
account of high base but still at 44% YoY in Feb’21
Source: NPCI, JM Financial
Indicators: Industrial
42.6
40.5
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
Feb
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
n-1
6A
ug-
16
Oct
-16
De
c-1
6Fe
b-1
7A
pr-
17
Jun
-17
Au
g-1
7O
ct-1
7D
ec-
17
Feb
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
n-1
8A
ug-
18
Oct
-18
De
c-1
8Fe
b-1
9A
pr-
19
Jun
-19
Au
g-1
9O
ct-1
9D
ec-
19
Feb
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
n-2
0A
ug-
20
Oct
-20
De
c-2
0Fe
b-2
1
Labour force Participation Rate % (CMIE)
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
Dec-
17
Feb-1
8
Apr-
18
Jun-1
8
Aug-1
8
Oct
-18
Dec-
18
Feb-1
9
Apr-
19
Jun-1
9
Aug-1
9
Oct
-19
Dec-
19
Feb-2
0
Apr-
20
Jun-2
0
Aug-2
0
Oct
-20
Dec-
20
Feb-2
1
National Electronics Toll Collections - Volume (% YoY)
YoY growth in average daily vehicle registrations (ex-PVs)
remains in the negative territory
15
Number of all-India vehicle registrations lower WoW
Source: vahan.parivahan.gov.in, JM Financial
YoY growth (ex. PVs) in daily avg. vehicle registrations
worse in Mar-21 (till 14th) vs. in Feb-21
Source: vahan.parivahan.gov.in, JM Financial
Indicators: Consumption
404
170
11
343
146
11
Vehicle
registrations (in000s)
No. of
transactions (in10, 000s)
Revenue
collections (INRbn)
29-Nov 06-Dec 13-Dec 20-Dec 27-Dec 03-Jan 10-Jan 17-Jan
24-Jan 31-Jan 07-Feb 14-Feb 21-Feb 28-Feb 07-Mar 14-Mar
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
De
c-1
7Fe
b-1
8A
pr-
18
Jun
-18
Au
g-1
8O
ct-1
8D
ec-
18
Feb
-19
Ap
r-1
9Ju
n-1
9A
ug-
19
Oct
-19
De
c-1
9Fe
b-2
0A
pr-
20
21
-Ju
n-2
00
5-J
ul-
20
19
-Ju
l-2
03
1-J
ul-
20
16
-Au
g-2
03
0-A
ug-
20
13
-Se
p-2
02
7-S
ep
-20
31
-Oct
-20
31
-De
c-2
01
7-J
an-2
13
1-J
an-2
11
4-F
eb
-21
28
-Fe
b-2
11
4-M
ar-2
1
PV 2-Wheelers MHCV LCV
Vehicle Registrations (YoY%)
Property registrations growth in Maharashtra higher
in Mar-21 (till 14 Mar’21) vs. Feb-21 due to base effects
16
YoY growth in daily avg. property registrations in
Maharashtra higher in Mar’21 (till 14 Mar) vs. Feb’21 (on
weaker base)
Dwello website visits higher in Mar’21 (till 14 Mar-21) vs.
Feb’21 (avg.)
Source: igrmaharashtra.gov.in/, JM Financial Source: *Dwello: Offers home-buying service to home seekers in Mumbai and Pune, JM Financial
Indicators: Consumption
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec-
19
Jan
-20
Feb-2
0
Mar-
20
Ap
r-2
0
May-
20
Jun-2
0
Jul-2
0
Au
g-2
0
Sep-2
0
Oct
-20
No
v-2
0
Dec-
20
Jan
-21
Feb-2
1
1-7
Mar
8-1
4 M
ar
Average daily registration of property in Maharashtra excl Mumbai
Average daily registration of property in Mumbai%YoY
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
31
-Jan
-20
14
-Fe
b-2
02
8-F
eb
-20
13
-Mar
-20
27
-Mar
-20
10
-Ap
r-2
02
4-A
pr-
20
08
-May
-20
22
-May
-20
05
-Ju
n-2
01
9-J
un
-20
03
-Ju
l-2
01
7-J
ul-
20
31
-Ju
l-2
01
4-A
ug-
20
28
-Au
g-2
01
1-S
ep
-20
25
-Se
p-2
00
9-O
ct-2
02
3-O
ct-2
00
6-N
ov-
20
20
-No
v-2
00
4-D
ec-2
01
8-D
ec-2
00
1-J
an-2
11
5-J
an-2
12
9-J
an-2
11
2-F
eb
-21
26
-Fe
b-2
11
2-M
ar-2
1
Dwello Unique Website Visits Physical Site Visits - RHS
Retail / mobility trends for discretionary consumption steady
17
Consumption remains largely steady but some
concerns on spread of virus again
Mobility for retail and recreation* down by 20% in the
week ending 9-Mar vs. 22% in the week before that
Source: Google Mobility Reports, JM Financial ; Baseline: Median: 3Jan-6Feb’20. *Weekly Average
* Mobility trends for places like restaurants, cafes, shopping centres, theme parks, museums, libraries, and
movie theatres.
Indicators: Consumption
Source: JM survey across retailers of V-mart, V2-retail, other value retail stores in UP & Bihar
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
25
-Feb-2
0
17
-Mar-
20
07
-Apr-
20
28
-Apr-
20
19
-May-
20
09
-Ju
n-2
0
30
-Ju
n-2
0
21
-Ju
l-20
11
-Aug
-20
01
-Sep-2
0
22
-Sep-2
0
13
-Oct
-20
03
-Nov-
20
24
-Nov-
20
15
-Dec-
20
05
-Jan-2
1
26
-Jan-2
1
16
-Feb-2
1
09
-Mar-
21
ALL INDIA Maharashtra Delhi TN
AP UP Karnataka100
60505248484442
5559
727474757473767882828384848484858583
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Pre
-Covi
d
June-3
rd w
eek
July
-2nd w
eek
Sep 4
th w
eek
No
v 3rd
week
Dec
2nd W
eek
Jan 2
nd W
eek
Jan 4
th w
eek
Feb 3
rd w
eek
Marc
h 2
nd w
eek
Value Retail Sales indexed to last year normal sales (indexed to100)- (North and East India)
AePS cash withdrawal / volume of digital payments higher
WoW
18
Aadhaar-enabled Payment System (AePS) cash
withdrawals higher WoW
Source RBI, JM Financial, *Weekly Sum
Volume of digital payments higher WoW
Source: RBI, JM Financial; 7-day moving average
Indicators: Consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
07
-Ju
n-2
0
21
-Ju
n-2
0
05
-Ju
l-20
19
-Ju
l-20
02
-Aug
-20
16
-Aug
-20
30
-Aug
-20
13
-Sep-2
0
27
-Sep-2
0
11
-Oct
-20
25
-Oct
-20
08
-Nov-
20
22
-Nov-
20
06
-Dec-
20
20
-Dec-
20
03
-Jan-2
1
17
-Jan-2
1
31
-Jan-2
1
14
-Feb-2
1
28
-Feb-2
1
14
-Mar-
21
Vol (mn) Val (INR bn) - RHS
AePS (through micro-ATMs / BCs) - Weekly Sum mnINR bn
65.00
75.00
85.00
95.00
105.00
115.00
125.00
135.00
145.00
24
-Ju
n-2
0
08
-Ju
l-20
22
-Ju
l-20
06
-Aug
-20
21
-Aug
-20
04
-Sep-2
0
18
-Sep-2
0
03
-Oct
-20
17
-Oct
-20
02
-Nov-
20
16
-Nov-
20
30
-Nov-
20
14
-Dec-
20
29
-Dec-
20
12
-Jan-2
1
27
-Jan-2
1
09
-Feb-2
1
23
-Feb-2
1
09
-Mar-
21
Volume of Digital Payments (RTGS+AePS+NEFT+UPI+IMPS+NACH)(mn)
Airline travel slightly lower WoW
19
Growth in transaction demand of money (Feb’21)
slower, retail digital payments higher (Dec’20)
Source: RBI, JM Financial,
Daily airline departures, passengers slightly lower WoW
due to an increase in new cases
Source: RBI, JM Financial, 7 Day Moving Average
Indicators: Consumption
200
700
1,200
1,700
2,200
2,700
06 J
un’2
0
13 J
un’2
0
22 J
un’2
0
01 J
ul’20
8 J
ul’20
17 J
ul’20
26 J
ul’20
3 A
ug’2
0
11 A
ug’2
0
18 A
ug’2
0
28 A
ug’2
0
4 S
ep’2
0
12 S
ep’2
0
20 S
ep’2
0
27 S
ep’2
0
4 O
ct'2
0
21
Oct
'20
1 N
ov'
20
22
No
v'20
16
Dec'
20
24
Jan
'21
13
Mar'
21
20,000
70,000
1,20,000
1,70,000
2,20,000
2,70,000
3,20,000
No. of Passengers - RHS (7 Day MA)
No. of departures (7 Day MA)
21%
37%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Feb-1
8M
ar-
18
Apr-
18
May-
18
Jun-1
8Ju
l-1
8A
ug-1
8Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov-
18
Dec-
18
Jan
-19
Feb-1
9M
ar-
19
Apr-
19
May-
19
Jun-1
9Ju
l-1
9A
ug-1
9Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov-
19
Dec-
19
Jan
-20
Feb-2
0M
ar-
20
Apr-
20
May-
20
Jun-2
0Ju
l-2
0A
ug-2
0Sep
-20
Oct
-20
Nov-
20
Dec-
20
Jan
-21
Feb-2
1
Currency in circulation Value of Retail electro. clearing+ Cards
% YoY
Incremental C-D Ratio rises to 43%; corporate spreads
rise but still at pre-Covid levels
20
Credit-deposit ratio of commercial banks stood at 72%
on 26Feb’21; incremental C-D ratio stood at 43%
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial
Indicators: Monetary
Corporate bond spreads remain at pre-Covid levels
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial;
30
80
130
180
230
280
330
19
-Jan
09
-Feb
01
-Mar
22
-Mar
12
-Apr
03
-May
24
-May
14
-Ju
n
05
-Ju
l
26
-Ju
l
16
-Aug
06
-Sep
27
-Sep
18
-Oct
08
-Nov
29
-Nov
20
-Dec
10
-Jan
31
-Jan
21
-Feb
14
-Mar
Corporate bond spreads: 1 year AA
Corporate bond spreads: 3 year AA
bps
72%
43%0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
70%71%72%73%74%75%76%77%78%79%80%
26-F
eb-1
7
26
-May-
17
26-A
ug-1
7
26-N
ov-
17
26-F
eb-1
8
26-M
ay-
18
26-A
ug-1
8
26-N
ov-
18
26-F
eb-1
9
26
-May-
19
26-A
ug-1
9
26-N
ov-
19
26-F
eb-2
0
26
-May-
20
26-A
ug-2
0
26-N
ov-
20
26-F
eb-2
1
System CD Ratio Incremental CD Ratio - RHS
NACH bounce rate falls further in Dec’20, Retail stock trading
turnover lower WoW
21
Indicators: Monetary
NACH bounce rate for recurring payments in Dec’20
lowest since May’20; But still at 1.2x of Jan’20 levels
Source NCPI, JM Financial
Retail stock trading lower WoW; at 2.2x of last year’s
levels
Source MoneyControl, BSE, NSE, JM Financial
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
De
c-1
7
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
De
c-1
8
Mar
-19
Jun
-19
Sep
-19
De
c-1
9
Mar
-20
Jun
-20
Sep
-20
De
c-2
0
NACH Bounce rate for Recurring payments (EMI, Insurance premiumetc)
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
12
-Mar-
20
12
-Apr-
20
12
-May-
20
12
-Ju
n-2
0
12
-Ju
l-20
12
-Aug
-20
12
-Sep-2
0
12
-Oct
-20
12
-Nov-
20
12
-Dec-
20
12
-Jan-2
1
12
-Feb-2
1
12
-Mar-
21
Retail stock trading turnover- 7 day moving average (INR cr)
Rice procurement, Rabi sowing higher YoY
22
Indicators: Rural
MSP based procurement continues, 15%+ YoY growth
(wheat procurement target of 10%YoY)
Rabi sowing up 2.6%YoY (on the back of 10%YoY
growth last year)
Source: Ministry of Agriculture,, JM Financial Source: Ministry of agriculture, JM Financial
2.7% 2.7%
4.5%
-7.1%
5.2%
2.6%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Wheat Paddy Pulses CoarseCereals
Oilseeds Total (Rabi)
(% YoY) Rabi sown area - YoY (%)
2
811 13
17 1821
2325
27 2830
32
37 38 39 39
3
1012
1620 21
2528
3133
3638 39
43 44 45 45
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
12O
ct'2
0
26O
ct'2
0
29O
ct'2
0
6N
ov'
20
23N
ov'
20
27N
ov'
20
12
Dec'
20
19
Dec'
20
27D
ec'
20
3Ja
n'2
1
10Ja
n'2
1
15Ja
n'2
1
24Ja
n'2
1
14Fe
b'2
1
19Fe
b'2
1
4M
ar'
21
10M
ar'
21
(mn tonne) FY20 FY21
Tractor sales have been strong in last few months;
MGNREGA days growth slows in Feb’21
23
Tractor sales have been strong in last few months
Source Company, JM Financial
MGNREGA days growth slows to 20%YoY in Jan'21,
Feb'21 (interim) indicates 10% growth; FYTD21 up 47%
Source: nrega.nic.in, JM Financial
Indicators: Rural
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
% YoY MSIL PV % YoY HMCL 2W
% YoY M&M tractor % YoY Escorts tractor
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Ap
ril
May
June
July
Au
gust
Septe
mber
Oct
ober
No
vem
ber
Dece
mber
January
Febru
ary
Marc
h
FY21 FY20 FY19 FY18
Person days (mn)
Lock-down impacted peron days to be minimum in Apr'20
Inflation lower WoW for tomatoes/onions; mandi arrivals
growth remains at par with last year levels
24
Inflation lower WoW for tomatoes/onions but higher for
potatoes/cereals
Source: Department of Consumer Affairs, JM Financial
Mandi arrivals growth at par with last year levels
Source: Argmarket, JM Financial
Indicators: Rural
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
15-M
ar-
20
29-M
ar-
20
12-A
pr-
20
26-A
pr-
20
10-M
ay-
20
24-M
ay-
20
07-J
un-2
0
21-J
un-2
0
05-J
ul-20
19-J
ul-20
02-A
ug-2
0
16-A
ug-2
0
30-A
ug-2
0
13-S
ep-2
0
27-S
ep-2
0
11-O
ct-2
0
25-O
ct-2
0
08-N
ov-
20
22-N
ov-
20
06-D
ec-
20
20-D
ec-
20
03-J
an-2
1
17-J
an-2
1
31-J
an-2
1
14-F
eb-2
1
28-F
eb-2
1
14-M
ar-
21
YoY%Rice Atta Potato Pulses Onion - RHS Tomato
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jan-w
k1
Jan-w
k4
Feb-w
k3
Mar-
wk3
Ap
r-w
k2
May-
wk1
May-
wk4
Jun-w
k3
Jul-W
k2
Au
g--
Wk1
Au
g-W
k4
Sep-W
k2
Oct
-Wk1
Oct
-Wk4
No
v-W
k2
Dec
Wk1
Dec-
Wk4
Jan-W
k3
Feb-W
k2
Mar-
Wk2
Mandi volume: CY20-YoY (%)
Mandi volume: CY20-YoY (%) - ex of NCT
Other indicators…
25
India: Indicators
Oil prices rise to USD 68/bbl …the INR stood to 72.5
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial
FII equity flows
Yield curve: Yields remain high in Mar-21
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
10 year5 year3 year1 year
15-Mar-21 Mar-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21%
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
05
-Jan
26
-Jan
16
-Feb
08
-Mar
29
-Mar
19
-Apr
10
-May
31
-May
28
-Ju
n
19
-Ju
l
09
-Aug
31
-Aug
20
-Sep
12
-Oct
02
-Nov
23
-Nov
14
-Dec
04
-Jan
25
-Jan
15
-Feb
08
-Mar
INR
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
15
-Jan
15
-Feb
15
-Mar
15
-Ap
r
15
-May
15
-Ju
n
15
-Ju
l
15
-Aug
15
-Sep
15
-Oct
15
-No
v
15
-Dec
15
-Jan
15
-Feb
15
-Mar
Oil- USD /bbl
-30
-20
-10
-
10
20
30
40
12-J
an
12-F
eb
12-M
ar
12-A
pr
12-M
ay
12-J
un
12-J
ul
12-A
ug
12-S
ep
12-O
ct
12-N
ov
12-D
ec
12-J
an
12-F
eb
12-M
ar
Cumulative FII flows (debt+ equity) since 1Jan'20
Debt
Equity
USD bn
Feb’21 guidelines for surveillance extended till 31 Mar’21
26
Unlock 1.0 : 1 - 8Jun'20
Allowed Hotels, restaurants and other hospitality services, Shopping malls / Religious places and places of worship for public
Night curfew 9 pm to 5 am: All India except essential activities
Shut Containment zones except essential activities
Allowed Intra-state and inter-state movement of people and goods. No pass necessary
Unlock 2.0 : 1Jul’20
Shut Inside containment zones, lockdown measures have been extended till July 31
Shut Schools, colleges and coaching institutions will remain closed till July 31
Shut Metro rail, cinema halls, gymnasiums, swimming pools, entertainment parks, theatres, bars
Allowed Shops outside containment zones can have more than five persons at a time
Flights Domestic flights will be further expanded while international air travel will continue in a limited manner under the Vande Bharat mission
Night curfew Timings are being further relaxed to 10 pm to 5 am
Unlock 3.0: 1Aug’20
Allowed Interstate travelling without restrictions
Allowed Opening of yoga institutes and gymnasiums from 5 Aug’20
Shut Schools, colleges, metro rail service, cinema halls, swimming pools, entertainment parks, theatres
Night curfew Removed
Unlock 4.0: 1 Sep’20
Allowed Metro rail services from 7 Sep’20
Allowed Social/academic/sports/entertainment/cultural/religious/political functions allowed with a cap of 100 people from 21 Sep’20
Allowed States, UTs may permit upto 50% of teaching, non-teaching staff to be called to school s / Students of Class 9-12 can visit schools on voluntary basis to clear doubts
Allowed Open air theatres from 21 Sep’20
Shut Schools/Colleges/Cinemas/Swimming Pools/Theatres/Entertainment Parks/International Travel
Lockdown No lockdown outside of containment zones (without govt.’s consultation)
Unlock 5.0: 1 Oct’20 / Unlock 6.0: 1 Nov’20
Allowed Cinemas/ theatres/ multiplexes permitted to open with upto 50% capacity
Allowed Schools / Colleges allowed to reopen from 15 Oct with voluntary attendance (states have flexibility to decide)
Allowed Swimming pools may be used for training of sportspersons
Allowed Entertainment parks permitted to open
Shut Ban on international commercial flights extended till 31 Oct
Unlock 7.0: 1 Dec’20 / Guidelines for Surveillance 1 Jan’21
Allowed Cinemas/ theatres/ multiplexes permitted to open with upto 50% capacity
Allowed Social/ religious/ sports/ entertainment/ educational/ cultural/ religious gatherings, with up to a maximum of 50 % of the hall capacity, with a ceiling of 200 persons in closed spaces (ceiling can be reduced to 100 by states)
Allowed Swimming pools may be used for training of sportspersons
Shut Suspension of scheduled international flights till 31 Dec’20. but Vande Bharat Mission/travel bubbles will continue (UK flights banned till 7 Jan’21)
Lockdown States may impose local restrictions such as night curfews but cannot impose any local lockdown without consultation with the Centre
Guidelines for Surveillance 1 Feb’21/1-Mar’21
Allowed Cinema halls/theatres can operate with more than 50% of capacity
Allowed Opening of swimming pools for all and exhibitions
States Decision on religious/political gatherings left to states
Further Assessment May allow further opening up of international air travel of passengers based on further assessment
Source News18, JM Financial
New lockdowns/curfews announced
Gujarat
Night curfew in Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara and Rajkot extended till 15-Mar (extended)
Maharashtra
Nagpur/Akola- Lockdown (15-21 Mar / 12-15 Mar), Jalgaon - Janta curfew (11-15 Mar) Amravati - Curfew (22 Feb – 1 Mar’21), Buldhana – Restrictions imposed, Aurangabad - Weekend Lockdown, Pune , Latur, Nashik, Pimpri Chinchwad– Night curfew
Rajasthan Jodhpur – Section 144 imposed till 21 Mar
Tamil Nadu Restrictions extended till 31-Mar
Punjab
Night curfew - (Jalandhar, Shaheed Bhagat Singh Nagar, Kapurthala and Hoshiarpur, Patiala , Ludhiana )
MP Balaghat district – Night curfew
Refer to our other earlier tracker reports
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1. The COVID-19 Files: Your weekly update on COVID-19 2. The COVID-19 Files: Unveiling relief measures 2.0 3. The COVID-19 Files- End of fiscal stimulus in India? 4. The COVID Files- More economic indicators showing improvement 5. The COVID-19 Files-From Lockdown 4.0 to Unlock 1.0 6. The COVID-19 Files- Improvement in most economic indicators 7. The COVID-19 Files- India now ranks 4th in the global COVID-19 cases 8. The COVID-19 Files: India COVID-19 cases cross 0.4mn mark 9. The COVID-19 Files: Daily growth in cases inches up 10. The Covid-19 Files | India replaces Russia as 3rd worse-hit COVID-19 nation 11. The Covid-19 Files | Improvement in consumption indicators flattening? 12. The COVID-19 Files: Cases in India cross the 1mn mark 13. The COVID-19 Files: Daily cases growth surges back to 3.7% 14. The COVID-19 Files: Unlock 3.0 begins 15. The COVID-19 Files: Covid cases growth moderating, recovery remains gradual 16. The COVID-19 Files: Consumption indicators hold up momentum for 3rd consecutive week 17. The COVID-19 Files: Peaking awaited: Growth in new cases slows further 18. The COVID-19 files - Unlock 4.0 begins 19. The COVID-19 files - India overtakes Brazil as the second worst-hit COVID-19 nation 20. The COVID-19 files - Slower testing, delayed peaking & lagging recovery 21. The COVID-19 files - Slight moderation in India’s new cases trajectory 22. The COVID-19 Files - Temporary peaking for India? 23. The Covid-19 Files - Unlock 5.0: Seemingly peaking trajectory vs. slowing testing growth 24. The Covid-19 Files | Sustained recovery in indicators continues 25. The Covid-19 Files | Growth in daily cases falls below 1% 26. The Covid-19 Files | Daily cases continue to taper off 27. The COVID-19 Files | Unlock 6 begins 28. The Covid-19 Files | Third wave in Delhi hindering decline in the all-India daily case growth 29. The COVID-19 Files | Fresh waves of infections & cooling momentum in recovery? 30. The COVID-19 Files | Unlock 7.0 31. The Covid-19 Files | Can we hope for a better December? 32. The Covid-19 Files | Active cases fall to mid-Jul’20 levels 33. The Covid-19 Files | New coronavirus variant in UK: Renewed trouble for the world? 34. The Covid-19 Files | The COVID-19 Files- India's new cases lowest since Jun'20 35. The Covid-19 Files | India approves two vaccines 36. The Covid-19 Files | Vaccination drive to begin from 16 Jan’21 37. The Covid-19 Files | Vaccination drive begins.. 38. The Covid-19 Files | World’s fastest vaccination roll-out; Active cases at Jun’20 levels 39. The Covid-19 Files | Globally new cases on the downward trajectory, economic recovery steady 40. The Covid-19 Files | Steady growth in economic indicators for Feb’21 so far 41. The Covid-19 Files | Covid cases rise again.. 42. The Covid-19 Files | Active cases at 0.17mn, up 12% this week vs. 7% last week 43. The Covid-19 Files | Active cases rise by 12% this week to 0.19mn
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Definition of ratings
Rating Meaning
Buy Total expected returns of more than 10% for large-cap stocks* and REITs and more than 15% for all other stocks, over the next twelve months. Total expected return includes dividend yields.
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