New and Emerging Agri-Food Production ParadigmsPart 4 of a 4 Part Series on the Future of short food supply chanis

Patrick.Crehan@cka.be

Acknowledgement: These findings are based on work done in the SKIN project on Short Food Supply Chains, funded by the EU H2020 program under grant agreement 728055. They reflect the views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the views of the consortium members or of the European Commission. More information about the SKIN project can be found at www.shortfoodchain.eu

VegetariansFlexitariansPaleo’s (neo-Neanderthals?)Vegans (violent vegan activists)Climatarians…

Japanese Buddhists agree that it is OK to eat lab-grown meat…

The Looming Food Crisis

To feed 10 billion people in 2050 the planet needs to address the 70% resource gap that will have open-up by then (compared to production in 2006)

Already the global food systems is under considerable stress• Availability of land• Availability of fresh water• Availability of nitrate-based fertilizers• Impact of CO2 output from global growth• Volatility of output due to effects of climate change in terms of

dry-spells, rain, storm damage and disease …

Yes Beef and dairy is a big problem• It is said that if cattle were a nation, it would be the third biggest

CO2 polluter…• But veganism has its price too…

The future food crisis is made up of two main issues• Access to carbohydrates the energy we need to live and work • Access to proteins and minerals, the nutrients we need to be

healthy

Then, what do we do about all that waste… the plastic and packaging, made worse by delivery?

Animal Protein from Insects …(for food, food additives, animal feed and the biotransformation of waste …)

Bread by Fazer in FinlandDemand outstrips supply.One of many companies working in this sector…

Snacks increasingly replace meals…

From the Netherlands

All the elements, carbohydrates and proteins you need in a day …

€2.49 per meal+ home delivery

The future?

The two main trends are for Plant-based and Lab-grown replacements for• Beef, milk and dairy• Pork• Chicken• Fish, Shrimp, Octopus…

These trends also have an impact on textiles, clothing and accessories, suggesting a need to replace • Leather…• Feathers and Down

Total VC funding for these 170+ alternative protein providers

Alternatives Plant Based Lab-Grown All

Meat $748 Million $111 Million $859 Million

Dairy and Eggs $569 Million $223 Million $792 Million

Seafood $17 Million $25 Million $43 Million

Totals $1,366 Million $359 Million $1,694 Million

A late 2019 Dealroom inventory of over 17 VC-backed companies making alternative proteins

Moving MountainsA vegan burger base on• Oyster mushrooms• Pea, wheat and soy protein, oats …• Beetroot juice + B12

3 years in development…By 2019, already in 1,000 restaurants in the UK…

IMPOSSIBLE FOODS

Heme• Much of the taste and cooking

experience of a burger comes from the Hemoglobin contained in the red-meat and blood of the animal

• A plant based substitute leghemoglobin from the nitrogen fixing nodules of legumes…

Plant based chicken nuggets by Rebellyous Foods, trialled by KFC in the UK

Eat JUST Inc. (formerly Hampton Creek)Hen-free scrambled eggs… and mayonnaise…

There have been many attempts at replacing milk from cows or goats with a plant-based substitutes. Until recently these have usually been very different from cow milk in terms of nutrition.

Bolthouse farms is one of the first to produced a plant-based milk that is similar in, taste and in nutritional value to traditional cow’s milk. It is not the only one …

A Solar Panel (bioreactor)

… based on • Algae• Bacteria• Other micro-organisms …

Remember• The green buildings of Milan, • The wall gardens of Patrick Blanc …

ZOA: Leather from Modern Meadows, made from bio-engineered yeast … 3D printed, programmable …

This production process has many variations…It goes by many names:“Cultured” meat“Cultivated” meat“Cell-based” meat“Synthetic” meat“Vat-grown” meat“In-vitro” meat“Lab-grown” meat“Slaughter free” meat“Animal free” meat“Clean” meat

“Shiock meats” of Singapore…

“Finless Food”…

The “Industrial octopus” story …

ALEPH FARMSTheir prototype minute steak…Plant-based growth-medium …

Bioreactors (2 litres)Compare with brewing (x 1000)

An example of cellular agriculture…

A proof of concept only. So far nothing is available on the market…

Good environmental claims• 99% less land• 96% less water

Cost of inputs still highNeed to scale processes…

Lots of research and problem solving still needed

Some of the mostexpensive meats in the world …• Kobe (Tajima)…• Matsusaka…• Yonezawa …• Hida…

The Japanese are looking into « designer meat » thatcombines for example animal muscle and fish fat …

Working with children on meat culture… using citizen science and crowd-sourcing …

BIO-REACTORS: For food, feed, energy, medicine, cosmetics…

Neri Oxman, head of the Mediated Matter group at MIT Media lab. She has developed a field called material ecology and is working on new bio-fabrication techniques that combine …

This is the end of Part 2 of a 4 Part series on The Future of Local Food Systems

Part 1 provides an overview of a Foresight Report on the Future of Short Food Supply Chains. It looks across domains, across sectors, across the EU and abroad to the US, Japan and China to find out how things are changing in the world of food, retail and transport logistics, consumer habits, marketing and e-commerce logistics. It looks at his existing trends are likely to impact local food systems, and what kinds of opportunities this will present for the future of food and agriculture in Europe.

Part 2 looks in more detail at the situation of agricultural producers in Europe, their importance and points of weakness, examples of producers that excel in various aspects of doing business to increase their bottom line, emerging models for growth and questions that still need to be tackled in new approaches to implementing D2C business models. One of the most striking observations is the renewal of interest in cooperative business models across Europe, that enable even small farmers to increase revenues with the help of independent-, producer-driven and consumer-driven models of cooperation in production, sales, marketing and distribution.

Part 3 looks at the phenomenon of urban agriculture and how local food systems are being enriched by urban, hyper-local and ultra-local models that bring food production not only into the city or town, but into the shop, the school and place of work and even into the restaurant and kitchen. The focus is on models that appear financially sustainable and which are likely to have a high level of scalability and reproducibility.

Part 4 looks at the new emerging developments that have not yet entered the mainstream, which still have some way to go in terms of demonstrating their feasibility and acceptance, but which nevertheless look quite promising. These include the application of robotics (automation, AI and advanced electron-mechanical systems) to production, distribution and retail, as well as alternative protein sources and ventures based not so much on the replacement of meat and fish but on the replacement of other animal derivatives such as leather, wool, silk, feathers and down, in what looks like a move towards a plant-, microbe- and waste-based circular bio-economy.

The original foresight report that gave rise to this work was completed in early 2018 and is available for download along with various other resources including these slides and accompanying webinars are available for download on Research Gate, the CKA website and on the website of the SKIN project.