Nevada’s Economy and the Intersection of Economic Growth ......Oct 22, 2020 · • August jobs: 1,289,800 • Up 0.5 percent in August; 1.3 percent in July; 8.5 percent in June

Nevada’s Economy and theIntersection of Economic Growth and Economic Development

Structural Differences within Nevada’s Economy

page 3

Mature

Stars

Transforming Emerging

Sector 2019 Jobs 2010 LQ 2019 LQ Percent Change LQ

Manufacturing 60,749 0.4 0.51 26%

Natural Resources 73,152 0.66 0.77 17%

Information Technology 76,497 0.68 0.76 12%

Logistics & Operations 92,930 0.81 0.9 11%

Mining 14,875 2.16 2.27 5%

Health & Medical 124,353 0.65 0.68 4%

Aerospace & Defense 16,250 0.73 0.75 2%

Tourism, Gaming, and Entertainment 433,405 2.51 2.17 -13%

Nevada’s Industry Base

Bubble size represents 2019 jobs in each sector

Aerospace & Defense

Health & Medical

Information Technology

Manufacturing

Tourism, Gaming, and Entertainment

Logistics & Operations

Natural Resources

Mining

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

2019

LQ

2010 - 2019 % Change LQ

page 4


Mining 515 0.07 0.11 51%Information Technology 54,400 0.64 0.74 17%Logistics & Operations 57,771 0.67 0.76 14%Health & Medical 90,023 0.63 0.68 7%Manufacturing 26,707 0.29 0.31 6%Aerospace & Defense 10,568 0.64 0.67 4%Natural Resources 37,222 0.52 0.54 2%Tourism, Gaming, and Entertainment 361,006 2.88 2.49 -14%


Southern Nevada’s Industry Base

Mature

Stars

Transforming

Emerging


Natural Resources

Health & Medical

Information TechnologyManufacturing

Logistics & OperationsAerospace & Defense

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

2019

LQ

2010 - 2019 % Change LQ

Northern Nevada’s Industry Base

page 5


Natural Resources 28,673 0.86 1.38 61%Manufacturing 32,649 0.83 1.25 50%Mining 677 0.39 0.47 20% Logistics & Operations 30,933 1.24 1.37 11%Aerospace & Defense 3,750 0.76 0.79 4%Information Technology 18,878 0.84 0.86 3%Health & Medical 30,648 0.79 0.77 -2%Tourism, Gaming, and Entertainment 60,242 1.64 1.39 -15%


Mature Stars

Transforming

Emerging


Health & Medical

Logistics & Operations Natural Resources

Manufacturing

Aerospace & Defense

Mining


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

2019

LQ

2010 - 2019 % Change LQ

Balance of State Industry Base

page 6


Mining 13,684 35.04 42.49 21%

Manufacturing 1,374 0.20 0.23 16%


Aerospace & Defense 1,874 1.80 1.75 (3%)

Health & Medical 3,643 0.42 0.40 (4%)

Information Technology 2,158 0.47 0.44 (6%)

Natural Resources 6,953 1.59 1.48 (7%)

Tourism, Gaming, and Entertainment 11,847 1.36 1.21 (11%)


Mature Stars



Aerospace & Defense

Mining

Manufacturing

Health & Medical

Logistics & OperationsInformation Technology

Natural Resources

(10.00)

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

(15%) (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

2019

LQ

2010 - 2019 % Change LQ

Balance of State – a Diversifying Economy?

page 7


Mining 13,684 35.04 42.49 21%

Manufacturing 1,374 0.20 0.23 16%


Aerospace & Defense 1,874 1.80 1.75 (3%)

Health & Medical 3,643 0.42 0.40 (4%)

Information Technology 2,158 0.47 0.44 (6%)

Natural Resources 6,953 1.59 1.48 (7%)

Tourism, Gaming, and Entertainment 11,847 1.36 1.21 (11%)


Mature

Stars



Aerospace & Defense

ManufacturingHealth & Medical

Logistics & OperationsInformation Technology

Natural Resources

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

(15%) (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

2019

LQ

2010 - 2019 % Change LQ

• August jobs: 1,289,800 • Up 0.5 percent in August; 1.3 percent in July; 8.5 percent in June

• April lost 287,300 jobs with an unemployment rate of 30.1 percent• As of August, we have recovered 52 percent or 150,800 of lost jobs• 242,000 of the 287,300 lost jobs were in Clark County (84 percent)• Service based industries most exposed to the economic downturn

• Service producing down 22 percent vs. goods producing down 3 percent

• August state unemployment: 13.2 percent. • August Las Vegas unemployment at 15.5 percent and Reno at 7.2 percent

• Week ending October 2 regular continued UI claims at 190,613• Headwinds

• Severity of COVID-19 through fall and winter and into 2021• Vaccine availability and efficacy• Fear and uncertainty• Additional tranche of financial virus-related relief

page 8

Economic Overview

Nevada GDP Growth: 2014Q1 – 2021Q4

page 9

Actual

Base Case

Best CaseNo Pandemic

Worst Case

$130

$140

$150

$160

$170

$180

$190

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Bill

ions

Source: RCG Economics

Nevada Nonfarm Jobs: 2014Q1 – 2021Q4

page 10

Actual

Best Case

Base Case

No Pandemic

Worst Case

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Thou

sand

s

Source: RCG Economics

March 2021 Consensus Scenario Projections Based on Pandemic Conditions as of 10/1/2020

page 11

Note: Growth rates as compared to February 2019.

9.2%

-6.5%

-13.7%-9.1%

14.0%

-11.7%

-28.4%

-18.0%

23.9%

-18.8%

-50.2%

-27.6%

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

Unemployment Rate Job Growth Visitor Volume Growth Taxable Sales Growth

DRAFT

Best Case Most Likely Worst Case

page 12

Business Development Pipeline

Prospects Active Projects Submitted ApplicationsLast Year Currently Last Year Currently Last Year Currently

Companies 6 12 5 9 13 3 Jobs 1,420 6,831 5,067 2,230 581 185 Build-out Jobs Estimate 3,217 15,475 11,479 5,052 1,316 419 Capital Investment $0.9B $1.7B $2.0B $1.1B $185.5M $43.1M

Prospecting = Company has expressed interest in Nevada as a location for its project and has begun initial discussions.

Active Projects = Company has completed and submitted RFI and is working with GOED to determine feasibility.

Submitted Applications = Company has submitted an incentive application to GOED.

Strategic Location Drivers1. Workforce Skills2. Transportation infrastructure3. Workforce development4. Higher education resources5. Utilities (cost, reliability)6. Right-to-work state7. State and local tax scheme8. Ease of permitting and regulatory procedures9. Quality of life10. Incentives

page 13

Source: Site Selection Magazine

Nevada’s Diversifying Economy

page 14

1,042,394 Jobs 1,335,630 Jobs 293,296 Jobs 40,183 Initial Jobs78,135 Build-out Jobs

1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.4%1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.6%3.8% 4.5% 7.2%

40.9%

4.7% 5.7%9.4%

19.1%

4.8%5.5%

8.0%

4.0%

6.2%7.0%

9.7%

21.7%

8.5%9.3%

12.3%

4.9%

33.1%33.2%

33.6%

6.5%

36.6%32.4%

17.8%

1.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Statewide IndustryMix in 2010

Statewide IndustryMix in 2019

Statewide IndustryMix of Jobs Added

Over the Past Eight Years

Industry Mix ofEconomic Development

Assisted Jobs

Tourism, Gaming, andEntertainment

Other

Health & Medical

Logistics & Operations

Natural Resources


Manufacturing

Aerospace & Defense

Mining

Governors Office of Economic Development

Bob PottsDeputy Director775-687-9900

Documents

Nevada’s Economy and the Intersection of Economic Growth ......Oct 22, 2020 · • August jobs: 1,289,800 • Up 0.5 percent in August; 1.3 percent in July; 8.5 percent in June