Prepared for the Perfect Political Storm:

Harry Reid Survives the Wave Nevada Senate Case Study

Harry Reid (D) vs. Sharon Angle (R)

“Harry Reid is dead. Now if only the GOP can find someone to entomb

him, perhaps he will not do yet again what he has done his entire career, which is miraculously come

back to life to horrify state and national Republicans.” - Las Vegas

Sun’s Jon Ralston in Jan. 2009

Harry Reid • 4-time incumbent, 2-term congressman

• First elected 1982

• Majority Leader, easily won re-

election in 2004 (61 to 35 percent)

• 33 percent Nevada approval rating (Jan. 2010)

• 8 percent favorability rating nationally (Jan. 2010)

Sharon Angle (R) • Reno, Nevada native

• Tea Party backed conservative

• Former state assemblywoman

• Former school board member

• Failed in run for U.S. congress seat in 2006

Nevada: A Microcosim of America’s Struggles

• Highest Unemployment in Nation (14 % in Oct.)

• Highest Illegal Alien Population

• Highest foreclose rate in Country

• Economy spurred by gaming and mining

• 17 Counties, mostly rural and Republican

• Clark County accounts for 70% state population

THE ON-AIR AD CAMPAIGN Nasty and Personal

• Lone TV debate (no audience) was a flop

• Angle’s Ad Message

- Reed supports illegal aliens

- Reid to blame for economy, unemployment and foreclosures in Nevada

Reid’s Ad message

- Angle too “Dangerous and Extreme” for Nevada

NEVADA’S Spending Spree Total Spent = $54 million

Angle = $28.2 million

Reid = $26 million

Outside spending = $17.5 million

Public Polling Misses the Mark Company Date Angle Reid Margin

PPP 10/30-10/31 47 46 Angle +1

Fox /Rasmussen 10/30-10/30 48 45 Angle +3

LVRJ/Mason Dixon 10/25-10/27 49 45 Angle +4

Rasmussen 10/25-10/25 49 45 Angle +4

CNN/Time 10/20-10/26 49 45 Angle +4

Rasmussen 10/17-10/17 50 47 Angle +3

LVRJ/Mason Dixon 10/11-10/12 48 46 Angle +2

Rasmussen 10/11-10/11 49 48 Angle +1

Actual Results 11/3 44.6 50.2 Reid +5.6

2010 Results by County

County

( % electorate)

Reid

%

Angle

%

Reid

Margin

Clark (61%) 54.5 41.5 + 60,492

Washoe (19%) 50 45 + 7,047

15 RURAL

counties (19%)

37 63 -26,880

TOTAL 50.2 44.6 +41,124

Keys to Reid’s survival

• Incumbency advantage

• Ground game (getting supporters to the polls)

– Reid won late deciders 75 – 20 percent

• Portray Angle as too dangerous and extreme

• Cater to minorities

Reid’s Minority Report

69%

79% 79%

30%

10%

19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Hispanics - 16% of voters Blacks - 6% of voters Asians - 4% of voters

Reid Angle

Nevada Exit polls

83%

18%

66%

91%

11%

44%

11%

77%

30%

5%

84%

48%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Liberal (19%)

Conservative (40%)

Moderate (41%)

Democrat (35%)

Republican (33%)

Independent (32%)

Angle Reid

What Happened?

• Rasmussen – miscalculated Reid’s appeal among unaffiliated voters

• CNN – the race flipped in final day

• Mason-Dixon – Underestimated ground game

Bibliography

Abraham, Ryan. “Interview of Harry Reid Campaign Volunteer.” 10 Nov. 2010. Personal Interview.

Associated Press (1). “Poll: Harry Reid’s Approval Rating at 33 Percent in Nevada.” The Boston Herald. 10 Jan. 2010. Web

<http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view/20100110poll_harry_reid_ s_approval_rating_at_33_percent_in_Nevada/>

Associated Press (2). “Feds Slate $57.2 million in housing aid for Nevada.” HarryReid.com

News. 29 Sep. 2010. Web

http://www.harryreid.com/index.php/news/article/feds_slate_57.2_million_in_housing_aid_for_nevada/

Associated Press (3). “Unemployment surges in Nevada cities.” My4 News. Web. 29

Sep.2010..

http://www.mynews4.com/story.php?id=28794&n=122

Ball (1), Molly. “Comeback: How did Harry Reid do it?” Politico. 4 Nov. 2010

<http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/44714.html>

Ball (2), Molly. “No debate over Nevada debate.” Politico. 15 Oct. 2010. Web.

<http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43680.html>

Catanese, David. “Nevada Senate polling draws scrutiny.” Politico. 10 Nov. 2010. Web. <http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/44910.html>

Damon, Annjeanette. “Sen. Harry Reid wins fifth term against anti-incumbent fervor.” The Las Vegas Sun. 2 Nov. 2010. Web. <http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/nov/02/harry-reid-takes-lead-over-sharron-angle/> Goldberg, Delen. “Harry Reid’s near-perfect game plan makes victory look like child’s play.” The Las Vegas Sun. 7 Nov. 2010. Web. <http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/nov/07/game-harry-reid-won/> Green, Steve. “Report: Despite increases nationally, Las Vegas home prices continue slide.” The Las Vegas Sun. 28 Sept. 2010. Web. <http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/sep/28/report-despite-increases-nationally-las-vegas-home/> Hagar, Ray. “Who is Sharon Angle.” Reno Gazette-Journal. Web. 20 Jul, 2010. <http://www.rgj.com/article/20100720/NEWS19/7180380/Who-is-Sharron-Angle-> Green, Steve. “Report: Despite increases nationally, Las Vegas home prices continue slide.” The Las Vegas Sun. 28 Sept. 2010. Web. <http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/sep/28/report-despite-increases-nationally-las-vegas-home/> Hagar, Ray. “Who is Sharon Angle.” Reno Gazette-Journal. Web. 20 Jul, 2010. <http://www.rgj.com/article/20100720/NEWS19/7180380/Who-is-Sharron-Angle->

Bibliography cont.

Hananoki, Eric. “Sharon Angle brags about her fundraising from ‘friendly’ outlets like Fox News.” Media Matters for America. 22 Sep. 2010. Web.

<http://mediamatters.org/blog/201009220018>

Lewison, Jed. “Sue Lowden’s health barter plan.” DailyKosTV. 20 Apr. 2010. Web Video.

<http://www.dailykos.com/tv/w/002666/>

Manu, Raju, “Sharon Angle burns through money in third quarter.” Politico. 15 Oct. 2010. Web.

• <http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43675.html>

•

• Ralston (1), Jon. “One Word: Preparation.” The Las Vegas Sun. 7 Nov. 2010. Web.

• <http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/nov/07/one-word-preparation/>

•

• Ralston (2), John, “Ralston’s Flash,” The Las Vegas Sun. 30 Oct. 2010. Web.

• <http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/ralstons-flash/2010/oct/30/republicans-lose-ground-second-straight-day-early-/>

•

Sebelius, Steve. “Tea Party: Angle gets the nod.” Citylife Presents SlashPolitics. 15 Apr. 2010. <http://slashpolitics.lvcitylife.com/2010/04/tea-party-angle-gets-the-nod/> Seigel, Elyse. “Top Nevada Republican endorses Harry Reid, slams Sharon Angle.” The Huffington Post. 7 Oct. 2010. Web. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/07/bill-raggio-endorses-harry-reid- slams-angle_n_755109.html> Slevin, Peter. “New Arizona law puts police in 'tenuous' spot.” The Washington Post. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/04/29/AR2010042 904970.html?sid=ST2010042905051>