Nevada Labor Market Briefing

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency

Nevada Labor Market Briefing

Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation

Dennis Perea, Interim Director

Bill Anderson, Chief Economist

David Schmidt, Supervising Economist

Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau and presented to the Employment Security Council, Oct. 2014


Unemployment Rate Ticks Down to 7.6%; About Half of Recession PeakNV vs. the U.S. Unemployment Rate (SA)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

NV U.S.

1


NV’s Rate is 4th Highest in the NationUnemployment Rate Rankings (SA)

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Georgia

Mississippi

Rhode Island

Nevada/DC

TN/MI/CA

New Hampshire

Hawaii/Minnesota

Vermont

NE/SD/UT

North Dakota5

15

04

94

74

48

65

21

2


54K Nevadans are Unemployed Because They Lost Their Jobs; About Half the PeakJob “Losers” in Nevada (12-month moving average)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3


13K Nevadans Unemployed Because They Left Jobs Voluntarily; Encouraging UptrendJob “Leavers” in Nevada (12-month moving average)

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

4


Long-Term Unemployment Half of PeakNevadans Unemployed for 27+ Weeks (CPS data; 12-month moving average)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

5


FT Employment on the Rise; PT Holds SteadyFull-Time vs. Part-Time Employment (CPS data; 12-month moving average)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Full-Time Part-Time

6


Including Discouraged Workers Adds About a Percentage Point to the “Official” RateAlternative Measures Of Labor Underutilization

Measure Underutilization Concept Level

Official Ratejobless persons available to take a job who have actively sought work in the past four weeks

8.8%

U-1 jobless 15 weeks or longer 4.9%

U-2job losers and persons losing a temporary job

4.8%

U-3 similar to official rate 8.8%

U-4 U-3 plus discouraged workers 9.7%

U-5U-4 plus others marginally attached to the labor force

10.5%

U-6U-5 plus those employed part-time for economic reasons

16.2%

Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization(Year-ending 2014:IIQ)

7


NV Adds 41,200 Jobs Relative to Year-Ago; Trending up for 44 monthsNonfarm Jobs in Nevada (SA)

1,000,000

1,050,000

1,100,000

1,150,000

1,200,000

1,250,000

1,300,000

1,350,000

1,400,000

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

8


Job Growth Hovering in 3.5%-4% Range the Past Half-YearJob Growth (SA; year-over-year)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A

2012 2013 2014

perc

ent c

hange

jobs

Jobs Pct. Change

9


NV on Pace to Add Close to 100K Jobs Since 2010Nevada Job Growth Since 2010

Total(Private+Public) Private Sector

2010 Baseline 1,117,800 964,000

Calculation of 2011 Growth2011 1,125,700 975,500Growth from 2010 7,900 11,500

Calculation of 2012 Growth2012 1,144,800 995,500Growth from 2011 19,100 20,000

Calculation of 2013 Growth2013 1,175,700 1,024,700Growth from 2012 30,900 29,200

Calculation of 2014 Year-to-Date Growth2013 Year-to-Date (through August) 1,165,400 1,015,6002014 Year-to-Date (through August) 1,207,800 1,057,200Year-to-Date Growth from 2013 42,400 41,600

Total Growth Since 2010 (2011 Growth + 2012 Growth + 2013 Growth + 2014 YTD Growth) 100,300 102,300

10


Nearly All Sectors Contributing; PBS and L/H Lead the Way…10K New JobsYTD Job Growth by Sector

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Mining & Logging

Other Services

Government

Financial Activities

Manufacturing

Education & Health Services

Construction

Trade, Transportation, & Utilities

Leisure & Hospitality

Professional & Business Services

11


NV Jobs up 3.6% Through First 8 mos. This Year; Double Growth in the USJob Growth (year-over-year)

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 YTD

NV U.S.

12


NV Job Growth Outpaces US in Nine of Ten Super SectorsYTD Job Growth; NV minus US

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Mining & Logging

Leisure & Hospitality

Government

Financial Activities

Other Services

Trade, Transportation, & Utilities

Manufacturing

Education & Health Services

Professional & Business Services

Construction

13


Job Growth Stronger Than in 48 StatesJob Growth Rankings (# of states with slower private sector job growth than NV; 2014 YTD through IQ)

50 49

46

14

20 0

14

24

38

48

0

10

20

30

40

50

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 YTD

14


Job Gains More Than Offset LossesBusiness Employment Dynamics: Private Sector Gross Job Gains vs. Gross Job Losses (SA)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

gross job gains gross job losses

15


New Jobs > Losses From ClosingsBusiness Employment Dynamics: Gross Job Gains vs. Gross Losses in New & Closing Establishments(SA)

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

gains from openings losses from closings

16


Wages Expand by a Solid 2.7% During 2014:IQ; Strongest Gain in Five Qtrs.NV Avg. Weekly Wage Growth: Year-Over-Year

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 YTD

17


New Hire Wages About Two-Thirds of Overall AverageAverage Monthly Wages

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

All Employees New Hires

18


Wages Rise with Age, Peaking with the 45-54 Year Old GroupAverage Monthly Wages by Age Group

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000

65-99

55-64

45-54

35-44

25-34

22-24

19-21

14-18

19


Number of Employers on the Rise; Up 12 Straight Qtrs.; Barely Below PeakNumber of Nevada Employers

50,000

52,000

54,000

56,000

58,000

60,000

62,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

20


Nevada’s Economy Dominated by Small EstablishmentsNumber of Establishments by Employment Size

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

1000+

500-999

250-499

100-249

50-99

20-49

10-19

5-9

0-4

Establishments

Esta

blishm

ent S

ize (

Em

plo

ym

ent)

21


Big Job Gain in Est. with 1,000+ Workers; Small/Mid-Size Est. also Solid2013:IQ-2014:IQ Job Growth by Establishment Size

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

500-999

0-4

5-9

10-19

100-249

250-499

50-99

20-49

1000+

Job Growth

Esta

blishm

ent S

ize (

Em

plo

ym

ent)

22


Small Business Adding Employment Since 2010Employment in Establishments with less than 100 Workers

450,000

470,000

490,000

510,000

530,000

550,000

570,000

590,000

610,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

23


Job Levels Surpass Pre-Recessionary Peak in 2016/2017Total Jobs: History and Forecast

24

1,000,000

1,050,000

1,100,000

1,150,000

1,200,000

1,250,000

1,300,000

1,350,000

1,400,000

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17


By 2017, Nearly 40,000 Construction Jobs Added Since Bottoming OutConstruction Jobs: History and Forecast

25

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17


Going Forward, Growth Expected to Strengthen for Manufacturing JobsManufacturing Jobs: History and Forecast

26

35,000

37,000

39,000

41,000

43,000

45,000

47,000

49,000

51,000

53,000

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17


Retail Trade Should Continue Adding About 4,000 Jobs AnnuallyRetail Trade Jobs: History and Forecast

27

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17


Expectations are for an Additional 3,000 Healthcare Jobs per YearHealthcare/Social Assistance Jobs: History and Forecast

28

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17


AFS Jobs Have Reached Historical Peak; 40K Additional Jobs ExpectedAccommodation/Food Services Jobs: History and Forecast

29

250,000

275,000

300,000

325,000

350,000

375,000

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17


NV’s Unemployment Rate Trending Down…6.5% in 2015; 5.5% in 2016Unemployment Rate: History and Forecast

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

30


For Additional Information, Please Contact:

Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation

Research and Analysis Bureau

Bill Anderson

Chief Economist

[email protected]

(775) 684-0450

http://www.nevadaworkforce.com

follow us on Twitter @nvlabormarket

Documents

Nevada Labor Market Briefing