16
INITIATING COVERAGE 10 JUL 2017 L&T Technology Services NEUTRAL HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters Engineered for growth L&T Tech (LTT) is a pure-play ER&D company, at 37% of HCLT’s ER&D size and 20% of Altran (largest global ER&D provider). LTT will benefit from increasing ER&D outsourcing (currently only 22% penetration), based on (1) Diversified vertical mix, (2) Business de-risked from client concentration (lowest top-10 revenue share vs peers at 35%), (3) Large mining potential, with 45 clients from the global top-100 R&D spenders, (4) Favourable offshore mix and high revenue productivity, as compared to Indian ER&D peers (8/30% higher than Cyient/Tata Elxsi), (5) Margin levers such as utilisation (+400bps scope), fixed price and IP-revenue. We expect USD revenue/EPS to grow at 11/13% CAGR over FY17-19E. Growth will be driven by the transportation vertical (33% of revenue) and industrial products vertical (27% of revenue). Recent deal wins and the signing of an MSA with an Oil and Gas major are expected to accelerate growth, following the slump in FY17 (led by specific accounts in the process industry vertical). LTT trades at 14.3x FY19E, which is nearly in- line with midcap IT valuations (midcap IT PEG at 0.9x vs LTT at 1x). Initiate with NEUTRAL and TP of Rs 805, implying 15x FY19E. LTT’s vertical mix is diversified across transportation (high growth), industrial products (less competition), and a marquee client base that includes Volvo, Exxon Mobil, Intel, UTC, BMW, Honda, John Deere, Caterpillar, Cisco, P&G and Kraft. LTT is de-risked from client concentration, the lowest among peers and it has a strong client mining strategy (T30A3). LTT’s revenue from the average size of its top-10 accounts is lower than that of peers, and offers large scope for growth. The signing of an MSA with an Oil & Gas major will support growth in the vertical, following a weak FY17. LTT has benefitted from its L&T parentage, as it was formed by the consolidation of L&T’s engineering services and L&T Infotech’s engineering services (telecom and high-tech) arm. The company has also aligned its sales and industry verticals, and subsequently rationalised tail accounts. LTT’s operational advantages include a high offshore mix, scope to increase fixed-price contracts in the revenue mix, and utilisation headroom of 400bps. LTT’s revenue productivity is notably higher at USD46.3k, vs USD 35-43k for Indian peers. Financial Summary (Consolidated) YE March (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Net Revenues 26.19 30.66 32.48 34.91 39.49 EBITDA 3.99 5.19 5.85 6.11 7.43 APAT 3.11 4.19 4.25 4.51 5.47 Diluted EPS (Rs) 30.6 41.2 41.8 44.4 53.8 P/B (x) 7.6 7.3 5.3 4.3 3.5 P/E (x) 25.1 18.7 18.4 17.3 14.3 EV / EBITDA (x) 19.8 15.1 13.1 12.1 9.6 RoE (%) 59.1 39.5 33.3 27.3 27.2 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research INDUSTRY IT CMP (as on 07 Jul 2017) Rs 768 Target Price Rs 805 Nifty 9,666 Sensex 31,361 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg LTTS IN No. of Shares (mn) 102 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 78/1,209 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 33 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 931/671 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (3.3) (4.4) - Relative (%) (8.9) (21.6) - SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 89.77 FIs & Local MFs 3.54 FIIs 1.08 Public & Others 5.61 Source : BSE Apurva Prasad [email protected] +91-22-6171-7327 Amit Chandra [email protected] +91-22-6171-7345

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Page 1: NEUTRAL Technology... · 2017. 7. 10. · 10 JUL 2017 . L&T Technology Services. NEUTRAL . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson

INITIATING COVERAGE 10 JUL 2017

L&T Technology Services NEUTRAL

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

Engineered for growthL&T Tech (LTT) is a pure-play ER&D company, at 37% of HCLT’s ER&D size and 20% of Altran (largest global ER&D provider). LTT will benefit from increasing ER&D outsourcing (currently only 22% penetration), based on (1) Diversified vertical mix, (2) Business de-risked from client concentration (lowest top-10 revenue share vs peers at 35%), (3) Large mining potential, with 45 clients from the global top-100 R&D spenders, (4) Favourable offshore mix and high revenue productivity, as compared to Indian ER&D peers (8/30% higher than Cyient/Tata Elxsi), (5) Margin levers such as utilisation (+400bps scope), fixed price and IP-revenue.

We expect USD revenue/EPS to grow at 11/13% CAGR over FY17-19E. Growth will be driven by the transportation vertical (33% of revenue) and industrial products vertical (27% of revenue). Recent deal wins and the signing of an MSA with an Oil and Gas major are expected to accelerate growth, following the slump in FY17 (led by specific accounts in the process industry vertical). LTT trades at 14.3x FY19E, which is nearly in-line with midcap IT valuations (midcap IT PEG at 0.9x vs LTT at 1x). Initiate with NEUTRAL and TP of Rs 805, implying 15x FY19E.

LTT’s vertical mix is diversified across transportation (high growth), industrial products (less competition), and a marquee client base that includes Volvo, Exxon Mobil, Intel, UTC, BMW, Honda, John Deere, Caterpillar, Cisco, P&G and Kraft.

LTT is de-risked from client concentration, the lowest among peers and it has a strong client mining

strategy (T30A3). LTT’s revenue from the average size of its top-10 accounts is lower than that of peers, and offers large scope for growth. The signing of an MSA with an Oil & Gas major will support growth in the vertical, following a weak FY17.

LTT has benefitted from its L&T parentage, as it was formed by the consolidation of L&T’s engineering services and L&T Infotech’s engineering services (telecom and high-tech) arm. The company has also aligned its sales and industry verticals, and subsequently rationalised tail accounts.

LTT’s operational advantages include a high offshore mix, scope to increase fixed-price contracts in the revenue mix, and utilisation headroom of 400bps. LTT’s revenue productivity is notably higher at USD46.3k, vs USD 35-43k for Indian peers.

Financial Summary (Consolidated) YE March (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Net Revenues 26.19 30.66 32.48 34.91 39.49 EBITDA 3.99 5.19 5.85 6.11 7.43 APAT 3.11 4.19 4.25 4.51 5.47 Diluted EPS (Rs) 30.6 41.2 41.8 44.4 53.8 P/B (x) 7.6 7.3 5.3 4.3 3.5 P/E (x) 25.1 18.7 18.4 17.3 14.3 EV / EBITDA (x) 19.8 15.1 13.1 12.1 9.6 RoE (%) 59.1 39.5 33.3 27.3 27.2 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

INDUSTRY IT

CMP (as on 07 Jul 2017) Rs 768

Target Price Rs 805 Nifty 9,666

Sensex 31,361

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg LTTS IN

No. of Shares (mn) 102

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 78/1,209

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 33

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

52 Week high / low Rs 931/671

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) (3.3) (4.4) -

Relative (%) (8.9) (21.6) -

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Promoters 89.77

FIs & Local MFs 3.54

FIIs 1.08

Public & Others 5.61 Source : BSE Apurva Prasad [email protected] +91-22-6171-7327 Amit Chandra [email protected] +91-22-6171-7345

Page 2: NEUTRAL Technology... · 2017. 7. 10. · 10 JUL 2017 . L&T Technology Services. NEUTRAL . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson

L&T TECHNOLOGY SERVICES : INITIATING COVERAGE

Page | 2

Diversified vertical mix LTT is a pure-play ER&D company, with a diversified

vertical mix that includes Transportation (33% of revenue), Industrial products (27% of revenue), Telecom and Hi-tech (19% of revenue), Process industry (14% of revenue) and Medical devices (7% of revenue).

Within the high growth transportation vertical, aerospace contributes ~25%. Competitors include Cyient, Alten and Altran. In the aerospace segment, LTT’s services are in the area of structural design, electrical and avionics systems.

The Automotive segment constitutes ~50% of the transportation vertical, with services across mechanical to embedded, including ADAS (automated driving assistance systems), telematics and infotainment. Competitors such as Tata Elxsi and global peers like Alten have provided a strong outlook for the automotive segment.

The off-highway segment contributes ~25% to the transportation vertical. LTT’s clients in the segment include global majors such as John Deere and Caterpillar. Services include new product development and M2M connectivity.

Industrial products vertical (27% of revenue) is also an area of strength for LTT, with clients such as Rockwell Automation and OTIS, and the company has some exclusivity within certain segments. LTT competes in this space with Schneider, Siemens, etc, and the vertical has limited competition.

The Telecom & Hi-tech vertical has the greatest competition, especially from tier-1 Indian IT vendors. LTT largely provides device-testing services, and does not have service providers as clients.

Vertical Revenue Mix (%) Growth By Verticals (FY15-17 CAGR %)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Transportation vertical to drive growth ahead and recovery expected in Process industry vertical

Transportation33.4

Industrial Products

26.9

Telecom & Hi-tech

19.0

Process Industry

14.1

Medical Devices

6.6

21.0

%

16.8

%

6.4%

3.2%

-0.3

%

-2.7

%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Med

ical

Dev

ices

Tran

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Com

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Page 3: NEUTRAL Technology... · 2017. 7. 10. · 10 JUL 2017 . L&T Technology Services. NEUTRAL . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson

L&T TECHNOLOGY SERVICES : INITIATING COVERAGE

Page | 3

LTT's Vertical Mix

Transportation Industrial Products Telecom & Hi-tech Process Industry Medical Devices Segments Automotive (~50%) Power & utilities Telecom FMCG (~40%)

Off-highway equipment (~25%) Building automation Consumer

electronics Oil & gas (~40%)

Aerospace (~25%) Home & office product Semiconductors Specialty

chemicals (~20%)

Machinery

Clients

Pratt & Whitney (UTC), Honda, BMW, Volvo, Scania, Calsonic Kansei

Mitsubishi, Kobelco, John Deere, Caterpillar, Rockwell Automation, Eaton

Intel, Cisco, Samsung

P&G, Kraft, Pepsi, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell

Danaher, Vitacon

% of Revenue 33.4 26.9 19.0 14.1 6.6

FY17 Revenue (USD mn) 160 127 91 74 33

FY17 Growth (% YoY) 14.2% 7.3% -2.6% -15.4% 11.2% Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research NorthAm Revenue Share vs Peers Europe Revenue Share vs Peers

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

USD/EUR/GBP billing 70/12/1% of revenue 57

.1%

63.3

%

67.1

%

67.7

%

68.6

%

69.8

% 79.1

%

81.6

%

86.5

%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

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5.3% 9.

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%

16.8

%

17.3

%

18.1

% 20.8

% 25.1

% 28.4

%

0%

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10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

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Mph

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Page 4: NEUTRAL Technology... · 2017. 7. 10. · 10 JUL 2017 . L&T Technology Services. NEUTRAL . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson

L&T TECHNOLOGY SERVICES : INITIATING COVERAGE

Page | 4

De-risked from client concentration LTT has 45 clients from the global Top-100 R&D

spenders, of its total 233 active accounts (49 accounts of LTT with >USD 1mn annual revenue). The R&D spends of the global top-100 stood at USD 413bn in CY16, with an addressable opportunity of ~USD 150bn.

Signing of an MSA with a global leader in the Oil and Gas segment is a great opportunity for LTT, and is expected to drive the process industry vertical (Oil and Gas vertical is ~5.5% of revenue and ~40% of the process industry vertical). The global MSA signed in 3QFY17 is expected to ramp-up, going ahead. FY17 was impacted by a few large accounts in the Oil and Gas segment of the process industry.

LTT’s client portfolio is de-risked, with least concentration risk as compared to peers. LTT’s Top-10 contribute 35% to the revenue, as compared to peers’ top-10 that ranges from 35-75%.

Client composition within the Top-10 accounts is also diversified across verticals, with three in Industrial products, two in the Process industry, two in Telecom & Hi-tech, two in Transportation and one in Medical devices.

Top account mining is a priority and the management expects three accounts to become >USD 30mn+ going ahead, as compared to one currently. Top five accounts grew at 0.9% CQGR, as compared 0.2% CQGR for the non-top-5 accounts over the last six quarters.

LTT is driving client mining with its ‘T30A3’ model, which is the priority of the Top-30 accounts, and development of business with adjacent customers. This will be leveraged by cross-selling of services and generating repeat business from the focus accounts.

Top 10 Accounts Revenue Share (%) LTT’s Top Accounts Revenue Mix

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

New client revenue at 10% and repeat business at 90% of revenue Duration of new product development projects at 12-18months

35.6

%

37.5

%

41.9

%

46.0

%

52.4

%

53.1

%

55.0

%

56.7

%

56.9

%

74.3

%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

LTT

KPIT

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Top 5 Clients

23.2

Top 6-10 Clients

12.4

Top 11-20 Clients

15.9

Non top 20 Clients

48.5

Page 5: NEUTRAL Technology... · 2017. 7. 10. · 10 JUL 2017 . L&T Technology Services. NEUTRAL . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson

L&T TECHNOLOGY SERVICES : INITIATING COVERAGE

Page | 5

Average Size Of Top-10 Acs: Large Mining Scope Average Size Of Non Top-10 Acs

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

LTT Revenue Trend LTT EBITDA% Trend

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

50% of Blackstone portfolio in financial services and in-sync with Mphasis’ vertical-mix

Large scope to increase scale of top-10 accounts

54

33 33

19 17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

LTI

Hex

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(USD mn)

1.9

1.5

1.5

1.4

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LTI

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(USD mn)

468 484 534

598

0%

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4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

FY16

FY17

FY18

E

FY19

E

Revenue (USD mn) Growth YoY (%) - RHS(USD mn)

15.2%

16.9%

18.0%17.5%

18.8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

E

FY19

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Page 6: NEUTRAL Technology... · 2017. 7. 10. · 10 JUL 2017 . L&T Technology Services. NEUTRAL . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson

L&T TECHNOLOGY SERVICES : INITIATING COVERAGE

Page | 6

Engineering services Engineering services include the design, development

and maintenance of products with mechanical product development and embedded systems (LTT’s mechanical and embedded systems revenue share is at 50% each). It is the function of the enterprise’s R&D spends. The Top-500 Global R&D spend of USD 621bn is being driven by an increasing demand for embedded systems and software.

The total addressable ER&D market size stood at USD 232bn in CY16, of which USD 85bn is currently addressed by offshore captive (USD 34bn or 15% share) and third-party outsourcing providers (USD 51bn or 22% share). Embedded and software engineering constitute 2/3rd of the global ER&D market.

LTT is a pure-play ER&D company that benefited from the strong heritage of L&T. LTT operated earlier as a

part of L&T’s IES division (Integrated Engg. services). It was consolidated with the PES division of L&T Infotech (Telecom and Hi-Tech segment) in 2014, which led to the formation of L&T Tech services.

LTT has subsequently formulated its strategy in the short time span since its re-structuring. Some key strategies include (1) Creation of industry verticals and appointment of vertical and solution heads, (2) Formation of unified sales across solutions and (3) Development of geo-specific sales teams.

In FY16, LTT undertook an account rationalisation exercise, based on limited growth opportunities (accounts with growth addressability <USD 2mn annually) within some tail accounts, which had an impact of USD 14.2mn (3.3% revenue impact in FY16).

ER&D Matrix

Source: Zinnov

Page 7: NEUTRAL Technology... · 2017. 7. 10. · 10 JUL 2017 . L&T Technology Services. NEUTRAL . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson

L&T TECHNOLOGY SERVICES : INITIATING COVERAGE

Page | 7

LTT’s Revenue Productivity Higher Vs Indian ER&D ER&D Revenue Share (USD mn)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research ER&D Addressable Market (USD bn) R&D Spend By Industry

Source: Zinnov Source: Zinnov

50% of Blackstone portfolio in financial services and in-sync with Mphasis’ vertical-mix

35,3

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Page 8: NEUTRAL Technology... · 2017. 7. 10. · 10 JUL 2017 . L&T Technology Services. NEUTRAL . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson

L&T TECHNOLOGY SERVICES : INITIATING COVERAGE

Page | 8

Margin levers in FP-revenue and IPs LTT’s fixed price revenue share stands at 30.4%,

lower than peers that have FP-revenue ranging from 20% to 62%. This is a strong margin lever for the company, along with the utilisation lever (LTT’s utilisation at 74.2%, and scope to increase by +400bps).

License revenue from the platform has grown from USD 1.5mn in FY16 to USD 4.5mn in FY17, and is expected to accelerate further. Wins are supported by IPs of Smart Building Management (industrial product vertical) and the Imaging platform (medical devices vertical). Growth in IP revenue is expected to support margin improvement, as there exists great scope to improve revenue productivity. LTT’s revenue/employee ratio stands at USD 46.3k, as compared to Cyient at USD 43.1k, Tata Elxsi at USD 35.3k, HCLT at ~USD 40k and global peers (Alten, Altran) at USD 83-85k.

LTT’s margin premium over midcap IT peers is also supported by higher offshoring revenue-mix, with onsite revenue at 49.2% as compared to peers’ range of 48 to 67%. LTT has over 2,000 employees onshore of its total base of 10,463 currently, with 13 global delivery centres.

Headcount of 10,463 includes 1,200 in the US, which includes 450 locals, with 750 on H-1B/L1 and average wages of ~USD 75k.

LTT’s digital engineering contributed 12.5% to FY17 revenue, and grew at 25% YoY in the same period. Digital engineering includes the ‘UBIQWeise’ platform, IoT, predictive maintenance and real-time data analytics with margins similar to the company average.

FP As % Of Revenue Low Onsite Revenue Proportion

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Headcount of 10,463 includes ~1,200 in US geography which includes ~450 locals and ~750 on H-1B/L1 and average wage ~USD 75k Digital engineering margins similar to company average

19.9

% 30.4

% 35.8

%

49.4

%

52.8

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%

61.6

%

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60%

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56.7

%

59.0

%

60.5

%

60.8

%

64.3

%

66.6

%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

LTI

LTT

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Page 9: NEUTRAL Technology... · 2017. 7. 10. · 10 JUL 2017 . L&T Technology Services. NEUTRAL . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson

L&T TECHNOLOGY SERVICES : INITIATING COVERAGE

Page | 9

Valuations Dividend payout to improve going ahead

LTT’s revenue is expected to grow at 11.1% CAGR over FY17-19E, and EPS at 13.4% CAGR over the same period, factoring EBITDA% of 17.5/18.8% in FY18/19E respectively. FY15-17 revenue/EPS growth stood at 6.4/17% CAGR, with the expansion of EBITDA% from 15.2% to 18%.

Revenue growth is expected to be driven by the transportation and industrial product verticals, and the process industry is expected to stabilise following a 15% decline in FY17. We’ve factored in USD revenue growth of 10.2/12.1% for FY18/19E, respectively. We’ve factored in USD 15mn revenue from Esencia’s consolidation in FY18E.

Deal wins in 4Q including MSO middleware maintenance of TCV (USD 24mn), smart campus project in Israel in collaboration with Microsoft (USD 5mn ACV) provide growth visibility, going ahead.

Margin recovery will be supported by (1) Improvement in utilisation following strong hiring in 2HFY17, (2) Increase in IP revenue (USD 4.5mn in FY17), (3) Pyramid improvement undertaken in FY17 (800 freshers out of 2,800 additions in FY17).

At CMP, LTT is at 17.3/14.3x FY18/19E P/E, which is in-line with midcap IT valuations (midcap IT median EPS growth at 13.5% and trading at 12.3x FY19E). LTT at 1x PEG vs midcap IT at 0.9x.

Dividend policy is expected to be formulated, with a payout of 35%, going ahead. While we are constructive on LTT, upside potential is limited at current valuations. Initiate with NEUTRAL and TP of Rs 805, implies 15x FY19E.

MSO middleware deal (TCV USD 24mn) and smart city deal (ACV USD 5mn) to support growth

Page 10: NEUTRAL Technology... · 2017. 7. 10. · 10 JUL 2017 . L&T Technology Services. NEUTRAL . HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson

L&T TECHNOLOGY SERVICES : INITIATING COVERAGE

Page | 10

Relative Valuation Table

Company MCap (Rs bn)

Revenue growth FY17-19 CAGR

(%)

EPS growth FY17-19 CAGR

(%)

P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%)

FY17 FY18E FY19E FY17 FY18E FY19E FY17 FY18E FY19E

L&T Infotech 135 10.2 9.1 13.9 13.5 11.7 9.7 9.1 7.3 36.9 29.2 28.7 Mphasis 126 7.9 11.9 15.4 14.7 12.3 9.8 9.8 7.9 13.4 13.6 16.5 Mindtree 91 8.3 19.7 21.6 17.6 15.1 11.6 10.5 8.9 16.8 19.1 20.3 L&T Tech 77 11.1 13.4 18.4 17.3 14.3 13.1 12.1 9.6 33.3 27.3 27.2 Hexaware * 70 10.7 9.6 17.2 15.9 14.3 12.9 12.8 12.5 26.5 23.9 23.2 Cyient 58 13.7 21.1 17.0 13.4 11.6 10.1 8.3 6.7 17.4 19.2 19.7 Persistent 53 10.4 15.1 17.2 15.9 13.0 10.5 8.2 6.6 17.0 16.5 17.4 eClerx 51 5.8 4.4 14.8 15.7 13.6 9.5 9.9 8.2 30.8 25.3 25.7 Zensar 36 7.0 19.1 14.5 11.5 10.3 8.8 7.9 6.7 16.7 19.1 18.6 KPIT Tech 26 8.2 14.6 12.0 12.2 9.2 7.3 6.6 5.0 14.8 13.0 15.7 Sonata Software 17 13.2 13.5 11.1 10.2 8.6 7.2 6.5 5.3 31.2 30.6 31.7 Mid-cap AVG 9.7 13.8 15.7 14.3 12.2 10.0 9.2 7.7 23.2 21.5 22.2 Mid-cap IT Median 10.2 13.5 15.4 14.7 12.3 9.8 9.0 7.3 17.4 19.2 20.3

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research, * Dec Y/E

Key Assumptions Particulars FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Headcount (Nos) 9,406 10,463 10,601 11,097 Utilisation (%) 71.4 75.9 76.7 77.7 USD revenue growth (%) 9.4 3.4 10.2 12.1 USD/INR rate (Rs) 65.5 67.1 65.4 66.0 EBITDA margin (%) 16.9 18.0 17.5 18.8 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Key Risks Decline in Process industry vertical (oil & gas

segment) and Telecom & Hi-tech vertical is a downside risk to growth estimates.

Despite lower client concentration as compared to peers, reduction in project scope by top clients of LTT

with switch to captives is a downside risk to growth.

Appreciation of INR is a downside risk to margin and earnings, we’ve factored USD-INR at 65.4/66 for FY18/19E.

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Company Timeline 2017 Acquisition of Esencia Technologies for USD 27mn (USD 15mn upfront) 2015 Acquisition of engineering services division of Dell for USD 12.2mn 2015 Acquisition of 74% in Thales Software India for Rs 60.4mn 2014 L&T’s IES division merged with PES (telecom & hi-tech) division of L&T Infotech to form L&T Tech

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Management Profile Name Designation Professional details

Dr. Keshab Panda CEO & MD

31+ years of experience and joined the L&T Group as Chief Executive of L&T IES in 2009. Earlier roles included Head Americas & Head of Europe Operations at Mahindra Satyam. Started career as a research scientist in Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) and worked at the Aeronautical Development Agency, Ministry of Defence, Government of India.

Amit Chadha Director, President: Sales and Business Development

Business Head, Americas in 2009 at LTT earlier. Prior to that, headed Manufacturing vertical of North America at Mahindra Satyam and part of E&U vertical at Satyam.

P.Ramakrishnan CFO

23+ years of experience and CFO at LTT since 2016 (earlier headed finance & accounts function of L&T’s electrical and automation business). In L&T from 1992 and worked in multiple areas of finance and accounts covering treasury, corporate accounts, electrical and automation and corporate finance accounts.

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Income Statement (Consolidated) YE March (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Net Revenues (US$ mn) 428 468 484 534 598 Growth (%) NA 9.4% 3.4% 10.2% 12.1% Net Revenues 26.19 30.66 32.48 34.91 39.49 Growth (%) NA 17.1% 5.9% 7.5% 13.1% Employee Expenses 14.87 19.68 20.96 22.47 24.90 SG&A expenses 7.33 5.79 5.68 6.34 7.16 EBITDA 3.99 5.19 5.85 6.11 7.43 EBITDA Margin (%) 15.2% 16.9% 18.0% 17.5% 18.8% EBITDA Growth (%) NA 30.3% 12.6% 4.5% 21.7% Depreciation 0.48 0.59 0.63 0.67 0.76 EBIT 3.50 4.61 5.22 5.44 6.67 Other Income (Including EO Items) 0.25 0.85 0.59 0.70 0.77

Interest 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.05 PBT 3.72 5.43 5.79 6.10 7.39 Tax 0.61 1.24 1.54 1.59 1.92 RPAT 3.11 4.19 4.25 4.51 5.47 Minority Interest (0.00) - - - - APAT 3.11 4.19 4.25 4.51 5.47 APAT Growth (%) NA 34.6% 1.5% 6.2% 21.2% Adjusted EPS (Rs) 30.6 41.2 41.8 44.4 53.8 EPS Growth (%) NA 34.6% 1.5% 6.2% 21.2%

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Balance Sheet (Consolidated) YE March (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital - Equity 3.00 3.00 0.20 0.20 0.20 Reserves 7.25 7.66 14.65 17.94 21.83 Total Shareholders Funds 10.25 10.66 14.85 18.15 22.03 Long Term Debt - - - - - Short Term Debt 2.19 1.96 1.02 1.25 1.51 Total Debt 2.19 1.96 1.02 1.25 1.51 Net Deferred Taxes (0.43) (1.03) (0.32) (0.32) (0.32) Long Term Provisions & Others 0.01 - - - - TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 12.02 11.58 15.55 19.07 23.22 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 0.83 1.07 1.19 1.28 1.45 Goodwill & intangibles 4.84 5.14 4.95 5.00 5.11 Investments 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.24 0.28 LT Loans & Advances 0.34 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.12 Total Non-current Assets 6.28 6.71 6.48 6.65 6.97 Debtors 6.76 7.26 7.11 7.64 8.64 Other Current Assets 3.28 3.00 4.99 5.36 6.04 Cash & Equivalents 1.15 1.39 2.62 5.50 8.44 Total Current Assets 11.19 11.65 14.72 18.49 23.12 Creditors 1.95 2.14 1.85 1.99 2.25 Other Current Liabilities & Prov. 3.50 4.64 3.81 4.09 4.63 Total Current Liabilities 5.45 6.78 5.65 6.08 6.87 Net Current Assets 5.74 4.87 9.06 12.42 16.25 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 12.02 11.58 15.55 19.07 23.22

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Cash Flow (Consolidated) YE March (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Reported PBT 3.72 5.43 5.79 6.10 7.39 Interest expenses 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.05 Depreciation 0.48 0.59 0.63 0.67 0.76 Working Capital Change (0.64) (0.05) (1.51) (0.61) (1.14) Tax Paid (0.61) (1.24) (1.54) (1.59) (1.92) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 2.89 5.34 3.45 4.85 5.56 Capex (0.54) (0.83) (0.74) (0.67) (0.76) Free cash flow (FCF) 2.35 4.52 2.70 4.18 4.80 Investments (9.02) (0.48) (0.58) (0.26) (0.49) INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (6.67) (1.31) (1.32) (0.93) (1.25) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 1.70 (0.23) (0.94) 0.23 0.27 Interest Expenses (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.05) (0.05) FCFE 4.01 4.26 1.74 4.36 5.02 Share Capital Issuance 5.47 - (2.80) - - Dividend (2.50) - (0.85) (1.22) (1.59) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) 4.64 (0.26) (4.61) (1.04) (1.37) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 0.86 3.78 (2.49) 2.88 2.94 Closing Cash & Equivalents 1.15 1.39 2.62 5.50 8.44

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Key Ratios (Consolidated) YE March FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E PROFITABILITY (%) GPM 43.2 35.8 35.5 35.6 36.9 EBITDA Margin 15.2 16.9 18.0 17.5 18.8 APAT Margin 11.9 13.7 13.1 12.9 13.8 RoE NA 39.5 33.3 27.3 27.2 RoIC (or Core RoCE) NA 27.1 29.4 26.4 30.8 RoCE NA 35.1 31.4 26.3 26.1 EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) 16.4 22.8 26.6 26.0 26.0 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.5 6.0 Debtors (days) 96 86 80 80 80 Payables (days) 24 25 21 21 21 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 67 41 72 72 72 Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 Net D/E (x) 0.1 0.1 (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) Interest Coverage (x) 104 184 249 120 122 PER SHARE DATA (Rs) EPS 30.6 41.2 41.8 44.4 53.8 CEPS 35.3 47.0 47.9 51.0 61.3 Dividend 22 30 7 10 13 Book Value 101 105 146 178 217 VALUATION P/E (x) 25.1 18.7 18.4 17.3 14.3 P/BV (x) 7.6 7.3 5.3 4.3 3.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 19.8 15.1 13.1 12.1 9.6 OCF/EV (%) 3.7 6.8 4.5 6.6 7.8 FCF/EV (%) 3.0 5.7 3.5 5.7 6.8 FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 5.1 5.5 2.2 5.6 6.4 Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 3.9 0.9 1.3 1.7

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Date CMP Reco Target 10-Jul-17 768 NEU 805

700

750

800

850

900

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

May

-17

Jun-

17

Jul-1

7

L&T Tech TP

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

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Disclosure: We, Apurva Prasad, MBA & Amit Chandra, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. 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HSL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research Report. HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: [email protected] Phone: (022) 3045 3600 HDFC Securities Limited, SEBI Reg. No.: NSE-INB/F/E 231109431, BSE-INB/F 011109437, AMFI Reg. No. ARN: 13549, PFRDA Reg. No. POP: 04102015, IRDA Corporate Agent License No.: HDF 2806925/HDF C000222657, SEBI Research Analyst Reg. 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HDFC securities Institutional Equities Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel,Mumbai - 400 013 Board : +91-22-6171 7330 www.hdfcsec.com