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A confluence of technological advances continues to shift customer behavior and spike network traffic exponentially.
At first glance, the horizon looks bright for network operators.
According to Cisco, from 2016 to 2021, the world’s population using the Internet will jump 44%. Networked devices and the connections each person uses will increase by 50%. The amount of Internet traffic each user generates per month will spike more than 150%. 1
Business IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 21%. And the increased adoption of advanced video communications in the enterprise will triple current IP traffic.
© 2019 Dispersive Networks. All rights reserved. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. (06.19)
Bell Labs is equally optimistic. By 2025, wireless cellular capacity will be 66 times higher than it is now, and daily wireless connection requests will be a staggering 100 times higher. 2
However, there’s a storm approaching.
It’s a perfect storm of technological advances and changing user trends that threatens to overwhelm conventional networks—and the operators who manage and monetize them.
NETWORKING’SPERFECT STORM
Net
wor
king
’s P
erfec
t St
orm
We need networks that allow us to communicate, collaborate, consume content and control systems, processes and devices. We want to effortlessly shift our interactions between apps, people, systems and Internet of Things (IoT) devices using chat, video, voice, etc.
Unfortunately, new technologies and other trends will severely test the ability of conventional networks to deliver the high-quality, secure experience users will demand.
Cheaper bandwidth. IP transit and bandwidth costs continue to drop thanks to new sources of band-width and new technologies. Lower prices embolden users to send and use more data, resulting in a projected 13x growth in core network traffic.3
Changing usage. New technologies and enhanced devices are moving us towards a model where everything is IP-based, shifting the way we consume network capacity. Indeed, the amount of data associated with traditional communication (e.g., voice and email) will be completely overtaken by bandwidth-devouring tasks and cloud-based services and data storage.
Altered patterns. Network architects can no longer design networks to accommodate just one busy hour: each application category has its own busy hour. Now factors like user location (home, work, in transit), type of usage (gaming, streaming, computing) and application quality of service (QoS) requirements must be considered to effectively architect and manage a network.
The device explosion. More than 20 billion consumer and business devices will be connected to the Internet by 2020.4 That’s more than double the 2017 figure. The annual volume of data generated by IoT will reach 600 ZB (that’s a whopping 600,000,000,000,000 GB) by 2020.5
Cloud-based services. Consumers and enterprises are rapidly migrating to cloud-based services, applications and storage. In fact, the public cloud services market grew 28.6% just in the first half of 2017.6 By 2025, Bell Labs projects that there will be a 2000x growth in public objects in public clouds.7
Streaming services. Younger consumers are “cutting the cord” to cable and over-the-air TV services and migrating to more individualized streaming services. For example, in June 2017, Netflix alone had 50.85 million U.S. subscribers— more than the “big four” cable companies combined.8
Another migration is occurring in the global video conferencing market as business shift from ISDN-based to IP-based video conferencing systems. Cloud-based solutions offer considerably lower costs compared to on-premise deployment. Due to this paradigm shift, the global video conferencing market, currently valued at $4.98 billion, is estimated to expand with a CAGR of 8.6% from 2017 through 2025.9
NEW TECHNOLOGIES, NEW CHALLENGES
Lower bandwidth
cost
13xGrowth in core
net traffic
$
Lower bandwidth
costNow Projected
Growth
13xGrowth in core
net traffic
$= =As bandwidth costs decreasecore networktraffic increases
13x
Number of devices connected to Internet
Source: Ga�ner, January 2017.
Source: Ericsson, February 2016.
20202017
8.4Bdevices
20.4Bdevices 2000x
Source: The Future X Network: A Bell Labs Perspective.
Source: The Future X Network: A Bell Labs Perspective.
Source: The Future X Network: A Bell Labs Perspective. Future data projections are to approximately 2020-2025.
NETFLIX
“Big Four”Cable
CompaniesCombined
Consumers are migrating to more individualized streaming services.
6xIncrease in cybercrime related loss/
payout by 2025
Growth in public objects in public clouds by 2025
50.85M 48.61M
Lower bandwidth
cost
13xGrowth in core
net traffic
$
Lower bandwidth
costNow Projected
Growth
13xGrowth in core
net traffic
$= =As bandwidth costs decreasecore networktraffic increases
13x
Number of devices connected to Internet
Source: Ga�ner, January 2017.
Source: Ericsson, February 2016.
20202017
8.4Bdevices
20.4Bdevices 2000x
Source: The Future X Network: A Bell Labs Perspective.
Source: The Future X Network: A Bell Labs Perspective.
Source: The Future X Network: A Bell Labs Perspective. Future data projections are to approximately 2020-2025.
NETFLIX
“Big Four”Cable
CompaniesCombined
Consumers are migrating to more individualized streaming services.
6xIncrease in cybercrime related loss/
payout by 2025
Growth in public objects in public clouds by 2025
50.85M 48.61MLower
bandwidthcost
13xGrowth in core
net traffic
$
Lower bandwidth
costNow Projected
Growth
13xGrowth in core
net traffic
$= =As bandwidth costs decreasecore networktraffic increases
13x
Number of devices connected to Internet
Source: Ga�ner, January 2017.
Source: Ericsson, February 2016.
20202017
8.4Bdevices
20.4Bdevices 2000x
Source: The Future X Network: A Bell Labs Perspective.
Source: The Future X Network: A Bell Labs Perspective.
Source: The Future X Network: A Bell Labs Perspective. Future data projections are to approximately 2020-2025.
NETFLIX
“Big Four”Cable
CompaniesCombined
Consumers are migrating to more individualized streaming services.
6xIncrease in cybercrime related loss/
payout by 2025
Growth in public objects in public clouds by 2025
50.85M 48.61M
Lower bandwidth
cost
13xGrowth in core
net traffic
$
Lower bandwidth
costNow Projected
Growth
13xGrowth in core
net traffic
$= =As bandwidth costs decreasecore networktraffic increases
13x
Number of devices connected to Internet
Source: Ga�ner, January 2017.
Source: Ericsson, February 2016.
20202017
8.4Bdevices
20.4Bdevices 2000x
Source: The Future X Network: A Bell Labs Perspective.
Source: The Future X Network: A Bell Labs Perspective.
Source: The Future X Network: A Bell Labs Perspective. Future data projections are to approximately 2020-2025.
NETFLIX
“Big Four”Cable
CompaniesCombined
Consumers are migrating to more individualized streaming services.
6xIncrease in cybercrime related loss/
payout by 2025
Growth in public objects in public clouds by 2025
50.85M 48.61M
FAST FACTS
Netw
orking’s Perfect Storm
A perfect storm is brewing. Shortened hardware lifecycles, accelerated innovation, increased traffic, relentless cyberattacks and cost pressures are forcing change—and it is coming rapidly.
Dispersive™ Virtual Network offers enterprises enhanced security, privacy and programmability. As a result, end users are empowered, network administrators are relieved, and those concerned with corporate compliance are satisfied.
The CSP can extend the life of its capital investments, accelerate the delivery of new services and head into the storm with confidence.
Future services. At the December 2017 World Internet Conference, Google CEO Sundar Pichal predicted artificial intelligence will replace the mobile Internet as the key driving force behind future innovation and economic growth. His AI-positive comments were echoed by Apple CEO Tim Cook and Alibaba executive chairman Jack Ma.
AI. Virtual reality. 3D printing. Driverless vehicles. Drones. These and other developing technologies will be band-width-intensive and latency-sensitive.
Higher adoption rates. Consumers and enterprises are be-coming more eager to adopt nascent technologies. Deloitte predicts that over the next decade technologies like cloud computing and storage, robotics and automation, sensors and automatic ID will reach adoption rates of 74% or higher.10
Proliferation of cyberattacks. Increases in the type, duration and nature of cyberattacks can directly impact customers. Bell Labs predicts a 6x increase in cybercrime related loss/payout by 2025.11 For the communications service provider (CSP), denial of service (DoS) and distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks change the volume and distribution of traffic. This can negatively impact the CSP’s ability to deliver traffic to its customers. This means the CSP may face economic penalties for violating service level agreements or lose customers in the aftermath of the cyberattack. Alternatively, the CSP may overprovision the network to accommodate the unpredictable nature of the traffic load, thereby increasing the per-byte-carried cost.12
WHY NETWORKS CAN’T HANDLE THIS DELUGE Legacy CSP networks incorporate a complex web of proprietary hardware appliances. This slows the launch of new services and the scaling of existing ones. Changes to services must be carefully orchestrated across the network to avoid service interruptions. Costly new hardware (with additional space and power requirements) may be needed. Worse yet, this hardware may have a limited lifecycle and the CSP may be unable to recoup its investment before the equipment is made obsolete.
The threat of this perfect storm is motivating CSPs and enterprise customers alike to migrate from proprietary hardware to software-based solutions. Software-based solutions will make it easier to more quickly and affordably build out networks that are scalable, dynamic and programmable.
DISPERSIVE™ VIRTUAL NETWORK: THE BEACON IN THE STORM Dispersive Networks, Inc. has developed innovative networking software that will help CSPs and their enterprise customers meet existing and emerging network needs.
It’s the Dispersive™ Virtual Network.
This software forms a Virtual network that overlays any single or combination of physical networks. It implements split-session multipathing and dynamically adaptive optimization techniques to select the best, most secure routes for traffic. As a result, traffic between endpoints avoids congestion and vulnerabilities.
Interested in learning more?
Let’s talk.
1.844.403.5850 dispersive.io
13560 Morris Road | Suite 3350 | Alpharetta, GA 30004
Main: 1.844.403.5850 | Sales: 1.844.403.5852 | [email protected]
1. https://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/service-provider/vni-network-traffic-forecast/infographic.html2. https://readymag.com/BellLabs/488083/3. http://www.1to1media.com/customer-engagement/race-revolutionize-content-consumption4. https://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/35989175. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joemckendrick/2016/11/13/with-internet-of-things-and-big-data-92-of-everything-we-do-will-be- in-the-cloud/#92e5d734ed586. https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS431966177. https://readymag.com/BellLabs/488083/8. http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/too-many-streaming-tv-services/9. https://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/xxdwrj/global_video10. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/about-deloitte/articles/press-releases/deloitte-mhi-annual-report.html11. https://readymag.com/BellLabs/488083/12. https://www.corero.com/blog/797-financial-impact-of-mirai-ddos-attack-on-dyn-revealed-in-new-data.html
