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Network Challenges in a Low Carbon Future. Jenny Cooper – Transmission R&D, National Grid. Outline. Background – Electricity Network Uncertainty Risk Management via Connection and Reinforcement of the Electricity Network Operational uncertainties and risk - Managing the system Conclusions. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Network Challenges in a Low Carbon Future
Jenny Cooper – Transmission R&D, National Grid
2
Outline
Background – Electricity Network Uncertainty
Risk Management via Connection and Reinforcement of
the Electricity Network
Operational uncertainties and risk - Managing the system
Conclusions
3
Our Electricity Transmission business - UK
National Grid owns the transmission system (>275kV) in England and Wales
National Grid is the System Operator for entire GB transmission network
4
The only certainty is change
5
The challenge
For the industry
Deliver this future:
Sustainably
Securely
Economically
For National Grid
Connecting generation & reinforcing the network
Operating the system
5
6
The main challenge!
6
7
Offshore wind penetration
7
Scenario Name Slow Progression Gone Green Accelerated Growth
2020 installed offshore wind
9,724MW 16,374MW 32,239MW
2030 installed offshore wind
23,174MW 26,354MW 51,552MW
% renewable electricity generation
21% 32% 43%
2020 target hit Missed Hit Exceeded
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Risk Management via Connection and Reinforcement
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9
Major System ReinforcementsStrategic Reinforcements
Sizewell
Pembroke
Osbaldwick
RowdownBeddington
ChessingtonWest
Landulph
Abham
Exeter
Axminster
Chickerell
Mannington
Taunton
Alverdiscott
Hinkley Point
Bridgwater
Aberthaw
Cowbridge
Pyle
Margam
SwanseaNorth
CardiffEast
Tremorfa
Alpha SteelUskmouthUpper Boat
Cilfynydd
ImperialPark
Rassau
Whitson
Seabank
Iron Acton
Walham
Melksham
Minety DidcotCulham
Cowley
Bramley
Fleet
Nursling
Fawley Botley Wood
Lovedean
Bolney
Ninfield
Dungeness
Sellindge
Canterbury
E de F
Kemsley
Grain
Kingsnorth
Rayleigh Main
Littlebrook
Tilbury
Warley
Barking
W.HamCity Rd
BrimsdownWaltham
Ealing
Mill HillWillesden
Watford
St Johns
Wimbledon
New Hurst
Elstree
Rye House
N.Hyde
Sundon
Laleham
Iver
Amersham Main
Wymondley
Pelham
Braintree
BurwellMain
Bramford
EatonSocon
Grendon
EastClaydon
Enderby
Walpole
NorwichMain
Coventry
Berkswell
Rugeley
Cellarhead
IronbridgeBushbury
Penn
Willenhall
OckerHill
KitwellOldbury
Bustleholm
NechellsHamsHall
BishopsWood
Feckenham
Legacy
Trawsfynydd
Ffestiniog
Dinorwig
Pentir
Wylfa
Deeside
Capenhurst Frodsham
Fiddlers
Rainhill
KirkbyListerDrive
Birkenhead
WashwayFarm
Penwortham
Carrington
SouthManchester
Daines
Macclesfield
Bredbury
Stalybridge
Rochdale
WhitegateKearsley
Elland
Stocksbridge
WestMelton
Aldwarke
Thurcroft
BrinsworthJordanthorpe
Chesterfield
Sheffield CityNeepsend
Pitsmoor
Templeborough ThorpeMarsh
Keadby
WestBurton
Cottam
HighMarnham
Staythorpe
Stanah
Heysham
Padiham
Hutton
BradfordWest Kirkstall Skelton
Poppleton
Thornton
Quernmore
Monk
EggboroughFerrybridge
Killingholme
SouthHumberBank Grimsby
West
Drax
Lackenby
Greystones
GrangetownSaltholme
Norton
Spennymoor
Tod Point
Hartlepool
Hart Moor
Hawthorne Pit
Offerton
West BoldonSouth Shields
Tynemouth
StellaWest
Harker
Eccles
Blyth
IndianQueens
Coryton
RatcliffeWillington
Drakelow
Shrewsbury
Cross
Weybridge
Cross
Wood
North
FrystonGrange
Ferry
Winco Bank
Norton Lees
Creyke BeckSaltend North
Saltend South
Hackney
BaglanBay
LeightonBuzzard
PatfordBridge
Northfleet EastSinglewell
Fourstones
Humber Refinery
SpaldingNorth
West Thurrock
ISSUE B 12-02-09 41/177619 C Collins Bartholomew Ltd 1999
Dingwall
Dounreay
Newarthill
Cumbernauld
Kincardine
WishawStrathaven
KilmarnockSouth
Ayr
Coylton
Inveraray
HelensburghDunoon
Inverkip
DevolMoor
Hunterston
Sloy
Fort William
Bonnybridge
Neilston
Ceannacroc
Conon
Fort AugustusFoyers
Inverness
Stornoway
Elvanfoot
Kaimes
Glenrothes
Westfield
Grangemouth
Longannet
Linmill
Bathgate
Errochty Power Station
Torness
Cockenzie
Keith
Thurso
FasnakyleBeauly
Deanie
Lairg
Shin
Nairn
Kintore
Blackhillock
Elgin
Keith
Peterhead
Persley
Fraserburgh
InvergarryQuoich
CulligranAigas
Kilmorack
GrudieBridge
Mossford
OrrinLuichart
Alness
Brora
CassleyDunbeath
Mybster
St. Fergus
Strichen
Macduff
Boat ofGarten
Redmoss
Willowdale
Clayhills
Dyce
Craigiebuckler
Woodhill
Tarland
DalmallyKillin
Errochty
Tealing
GlenagnesDudhope
Milton of Craigie
Dudhope
Lyndhurst
CharlestonBurghmuir
Arbroath
Fiddes
Bridge of Dun
Lunanhead
St. Fillans
Finlarig
Lochay
Cashlie
Rannoch
TummelBridge
Clunie
Taynuilt
Nant
Cruachan
PortAnn
Carradale
Auchencrosh
Lambhill
ClydesMill
Glenluce
NewtonStewart
Maybole
Dumfries Ecclefechan
Berwick
Hawick
Galashiels
Dunbar
Meadowhead
Saltcoats
HunterstonFarm
SP TRANSMISSION LTD.
Kilwinning
Currie
Cupar
Leven
Redhouse
Glenniston
SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRICTRANSMISSION
Telford Rd.Gorgie
KilmarnockTown
Busby
Erskine
Strathleven
MossmorranDunfermline
Broxburn
Livingston
Whitehouse
ShrubhillPortobello
Devonside
StirlingWhistlefield
SpangoValley
Ardmore
Broadford
Dunvegan
NGC
Easterhouse
EastKilbrideSouth
Gretna
Chapelcross
THE SHETLAND ISLANDS
Tongland
GlenMorrison
Clachan
400kV Substations275kV Substations400kV CIRCUITS275kV CIRCUITS
Major Generating Sites Including Pumped Storage
Connected at 400kVConnected at 275kVHydro Generation
TRANSMISSION SYSTEM REINFORCEMENTS
Langage
BlacklawWhitelee
Iverkeithing
Marchwood
BickerFenn
Coalburn
REINFORCED NETWORK
Under Construction or ready to startConstruction subject to consents
Very strong need case
Series Capacitors
RedbridgeTottenham
Strong need case
Future requirement, but no strongneed case to commenceat present
Proposed 2020 Network
Based on Gone Green scenario
Intra network-HVDC links
Thyristor Controlled Series Compensation
Multiple Quad Boosters
High boundary transfers
Complex fault management
http://www.ensg.gov.uk/index.php?article=126
10
Electricity Transmission System - Today
11
Electricity Transmission System - 2030
Many new technologies for the onshore system
Embedded HVDC
Series Capacitors
Wide Area Monitoring
Dynamic Ratings
Etc.
Aim is to enhance the performance of the existing network
Technical Challenges - Onshore
This is the BIG Challenge!
New technologies – not just for the UK
VSC HVDC
Multi-terminal HVDC
Very large connections (>11GW)
Rapid introduction of new technology to the UK
Offshore Development Information Statement: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/ODIS/
Technical Challenges - Offshore
14
Infrastructure Costs
Estimated costs to deliver the future
£5bn to deliver onshore reinforcements
Gone Green Scenario
£15.9bn for radial solution
£11.5bn for integrated solution
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Operational uncertainties and risk - Managing the system
Changing the fuel mix: Gone Greenchanging dependencies
High winds exceed minimum system demands - constrain off, build more interconnectors or increase storage
Potential greater reliance on gas for balancing
Need for high level of generation capacity - some with very low utilisation
2010
2020
Summer Minimum 2010202020202010
Demand
Interconnectors
WindWind
Interconnectors
OilGas
Gas
Coal
Coal
NuclearNuclear
Summer Minimum Demand Generation
Wind
Nuclear
Summer Minimum Demand Generation
Wind
Nuclear
70GW 100GW
17
Intermittency
WinterDemand - windpower output
2030 capacity
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 166 331 496 661 826 991 1156 1321 1486 1651 1816 1981 2146
24 Hrs 01/12/2004 - 28/02/2005
GW
Series1
WinterDemand & windpower output
2030 Capacity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 174 347 520 693 866 1039 1212 1385 1558 1731 1904 2077
24 Hrs 01/12/2004 - 28/02/2005
GW Wind output
Demand
3 month period modelled using 2005 demand data and projected 2030 levels of wind
Generation greater than demand!
18
Indicative Short Term Operating Reserve Requirement - 2020
56%
16%
15%
6% 1%
2%
4%
Small Demand sites
Large Demand sites
BM STOR
Non-BM STOR
Pumped Storage
Interconnectors
Typical Current Winter Reserve Provider Breakdown
Potential Opportunity for New Reserve Providers in 2020
4%9%
36%34%
15%
2%
~3.5GW ~8.2GW
19
Operations Challenges
Intermittency
Generation forecasting
Reduced system Inertia
Increased variation in flows across the system
Different demand profiles
20
Conclusion
Many challenges to come
We need to understand the issues and work to develop solutions
Need to know the “unknown unknowns”
Need as much research as possible
Energy Storage – would solve a lot of problems
21
Thank You!
Any Questions?