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Vietnam- NCAP Study
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN HUONG RIVER BASIN AND ADAPTATION IN THUA
THIEN HUE PROVINCE
NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008
Project Expert TeamProject Expert Team
IMHENIMHEN�� Prof. Dr. Tran Thuc, Project Prof. Dr. Tran Thuc, Project
DirectorDirector�� Mr. Le Nguyen Tuong, Project Mr. Le Nguyen Tuong, Project
CoordinatorCoordinator�� Prof Dr. Nguyen Trong Hieu, NEProf Dr. Nguyen Trong Hieu, NE�� Dr. Tran Mai Kien, NEDr. Tran Mai Kien, NE�� Dr. Hoang Minh Tuyen, NEDr. Hoang Minh Tuyen, NE�� Ms Huynh Thi Lan Huong, NEMs Huynh Thi Lan Huong, NE�� Mr. Dang Quang Thinh, NEMr. Dang Quang Thinh, NE�� Dr. Hoang Duc Cuong, NEDr. Hoang Duc Cuong, NE�� Mr. Tran Quynh, NEMr. Tran Quynh, NE�� Mr. Vuong Xuan Hoa, NEMr. Vuong Xuan Hoa, NE
International consultants:International consultants:�� Mr. Adriaan TasMr. Adriaan Tas�� Dr. Peter van der Werff Dr. Peter van der Werff
Thua Thien Hue local expertsThua Thien Hue local experts�� Mr. Nguyen Huu Quyet, Hue Mr. Nguyen Huu Quyet, Hue
group coordinatorgroup coordinator�� Mr. Nguyen Viet Hung, NE TTH Mr. Nguyen Viet Hung, NE TTH
DONREDONRE�� Mr. Nguyen Viet, NE, Hue MC Mr. Nguyen Viet, NE, Hue MC
ProvinceProvince�� Mr. Pham Van Chien, NE, DN Ob.Mr. Pham Van Chien, NE, DN Ob.�� Mr. Le Van Thu, SEZMr. Le Van Thu, SEZ�� Ms Lam Thi Thu Suu, HUMs Lam Thi Thu Suu, HU�� Nguyen Van Kham, DINguyen Van Kham, DI�� BBùùi Thi Thịị Hai Yen, DARDHai Yen, DARD�� Tran Viet Luc, DTTran Viet Luc, DT�� Luong Quang ðoc HULuong Quang ðoc HU
� Phan Thanh Hung, NE, TFMC
NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008
Study area - Huong basin•Mountainous area in the west and in the south is 70% area of the province.•Plain area is small along the coastal. It is around 9.78% natural area of the province•The Huong river basin area is 2.830 km2
•Mean annual precipitation: 2833.5 mm
ActivitiesActivities
�� Statistical processingStatistical processing
�� Research and ModelingResearch and Modeling
�� On site survey, Expert method, and On site survey, Expert method, and
�� stakeholder consultationstakeholder consultation
NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008
Key outputsKey outputs
�� Climate change and disasters in Climate change and disasters in T.T.HueT.T.Hue
�� Predicted Climate change and Climate Predicted Climate change and Climate
change impacts in change impacts in ThuaThua Thien HueThien Hue
�� Climate change strategy of provinceClimate change strategy of province
�� Capacity building for province and Capacity building for province and
lessonslessons
NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008
Climate change and Climate change and disasters in Thua Thien Huedisasters in Thua Thien Hue
NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008
Typhoons impact to Thua Thien Hue�� Scine Scine 1952 to 1952 to 2005 there 2005 there were 34 were 34 typhoons typhoons which which impacted impacted directly to directly to Thua Thien Thua Thien HueHue
NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008
26.11.200426.11.200468268211.200411.2004152615262827282720012001--20062006
02.11.199902.11.199997897811.199911.1999245224523093309319911991--20002000
10.10.198110.10.198158258210.198310.1983152715272575257519811981--19901990
23.10.197323.10.197347047010.197310.1973156415642666266619711971--19801980
05.10.196905.10.196955055010.196910.1969179217922824282419611961--19701970
27.11.196027.11.196027727710.196010.1960107810782751275119511951--19601960
23.10.194923.10.194944044010.194910.1949154715473230323019411941--19501950
25.10.193925.10.193943343310.193210.1932116611662631263119311931--19401940
13.11.193013.11.193036036011.193011.1930124112413008300819211921--19301930
13.10.191613.10.191628328311.191711.1917156815682817281719111911--19201920
Date Date observedobserved
DailyDailymaxmax
MonthMonthobservedobserved
Month Month maxmax
AnnualAnnualmeanmeanPeriodPeriod
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1911-1920 1921-1930 1931-1940 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2006
Mưa nămMưa tháng lớn nhấtMưa ngày lớn nhất
Change of rainfall at Hue Station
21.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
23.0
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
2
1
3 4
OC
Year
Pic. Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average(time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of annual
average temperature at A Luoi station.
Annual Temperature
Change of temperature at A Luoi station
Floods in Floods in HuongHuong riverriver
Number of flood higher than warning level 3 in Thua Thien Hue:
5112132No.
200720062005200420032002200120001999Year
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
SH
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
S.HƯƠNGS.BỒ
Number W. Level cm
flood 2007
Subject Sea level rise
Pre. change
Typhoon River flow
change and flood
Landslide
River bank, sea
dyke erosion
Increase in temperature
Flash flood
Transportation - +++ ++ ++ +++ - - ++
Water drainage ++ +++ ++ ++ - - - -
Water supply - +++ ++ ++ - - ++ ++
Electricity - ++ +++ - ++ - ++ -
Infrastructure
Telecommunications
- ++ +++ - - - - -
Agriculture ++ + ++ +++ - ++ ++ -
Forestry ++ - ++ ++ + - ++ ++
Irrigation ++ ++ ++ +++ - - ++ +++
Aquaculture +++ ++ ++ +++ - +++ ++ -
Biodiversity +++ - - - - ++ +++ -
Sector
Water Resources +++ +++ + +++ - - ++ ++
+++: Strong impact++ : Medium impact+ : Low impact- : Non-impact
Disasters and climate change and Disasters and climate change and impacts in Thua Thien Hueimpacts in Thua Thien Hue
NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008
Projected climate change andProjected climate change andclimate changeclimate change impacts in Thua Thien Hueimpacts in Thua Thien Hue
NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008
Projected climate change in Thua Thien HueProjected climate change in Thua Thien HueChange of temperature compared with everage period 1961- 1990
Scenario Period 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.9 XII-II 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.0 III-V 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.7 VI-VIII 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.1
A1F1
IX-XI 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.6 4.0
24.722.419.616.312.78.95.73.52.11.1IX-XI
15.614.212.310.38.05.63.62.21.10.7VI-VIII
9.38.47.46.14.83.43.11.30.80.4III-V
-23.4-21.2-18.5-15.4-12.0-8.5-5.4-3.3-2.0-1.0XII-II
11.010.08.77.35.74.02.51.50.90.5Year
A1F1
2100209020802070206020502040203020202010Scenario
Change in rainfall compared with mean from 1961-1990 (%)
60.1754.6749.1843.6838.1932.6927.2021.7016.2110.715.21Vung Tau
54.7950.1945.5840.9836.3831.7727.1722.5617.9613.358.75Hon Dau
21002090208020702060205020402030202020102000Station
Sea level rise compared 1961-1990 (B2) scenario (cm)
% RIVER FLOW CHANGE IN III-V
-15
-10
-5
0
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120Năm
Hữu trạch Tả trạch Bồ
% RIVER FLOW CHANGE IN IX-XI
0
5
10
15
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120Năm
%
Hữu trạch Tả trạch Bồ
HuongHuong River Water resourcesRiver Water resources
Predicted impact of climate change on Predicted impact of climate change on HuongHuong river runoffriver runoff
Flood area in Phu Vang district calculation under CC A1F1
12.011.09.07.04.00∆Fmax (%)
114.4113.0111.2109.4105.8102.1Fmax (km2)
6,446,276,166.085.965.81Hmax (m)
210020902070205020301999
17.016.013.08.04.00∆Fmax (%)
453.7448.8438.5419.2404.5388.4Fmax (km2)
6,446,276,166.085.965.81Hmax (m)
210020902070205020301999
Flood area in Thua Thien Hue under A1F1 CC Scenario
FloodFlood
PredictedPredicted impacts of climate change in Thua Thien Hueimpacts of climate change in Thua Thien Hue
38.3732.2424.4915.928.160.00(%)
3.393.243.052.842.652.45Salinity (PSU) (%o)Pho Nam
23.520.516.58.550(%)
2.472.412.332.172.12Salinity (PSU) (%o)Phu Cam
210020902070205020302002ParameterCross-section
Salinity change at Pho Nam and Phu Cam under scenario A1F1
SSalinityalinity intrusionintrusion
30.33516.78629.78816.2862100
30.13316.61829.73916.2612090
29.85516.33829.56516.1362070
29.62615.92729.36615.8142050
29.32715.40829.21715.2582030
28.63214.79928.63214.7992002
1%o4%o1%o4%o
A1F1B2Year
Change in distance of 1%o and 4%o salinity intrusionsalinity intrusion
PredictedPredicted impacts of climate change in Thua Thien Hueimpacts of climate change in Thua Thien Hue
Climate change impact assessmentClimate change impact assessment
�� Impacts on biodiversityImpacts on biodiversity
�� Impacts on coastal areaImpacts on coastal area
�� Impacts on water resourcesImpacts on water resources
�� Impacts on agricultureImpacts on agriculture
�� Impacts on forestryImpacts on forestry
�� Impacts on tourismImpacts on tourism
�� Impacts on other sectors: Transport, Impacts on other sectors: Transport,
hydropower..hydropower..
NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008
Impacts on Impacts on health andhealth andlivelihoods livelihoods
of the of the people in people in the region the region especially especially aquacultureaquacultureworkers workers
and familiesand families
Climate change policy in Thua Thien Hue
NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008
Climate change Policyand development plans of province
1.1. Plan for improving awareness and using climate change informatioPlan for improving awareness and using climate change information;n;
2.2. Plan for Plan for requirement on climate change and sea level rise consideration in sea level rise consideration in
planning decision process;planning decision process;
3.3. Infrastructure adaptive to climate changeInfrastructure adaptive to climate change
4.4. Reservoir, River and lagoon management regulation considering clReservoir, River and lagoon management regulation considering climate imate
changechange
5.5. Enhance Disaster early warning forecast systemEnhance Disaster early warning forecast system
6.6. Awareness raising and community participationAwareness raising and community participation
7.7. Environmental strategic assessment considering Environmental strategic assessment considering
climate changeclimate change
8. Setting up and implementing climate change
adaptation plan of actions
Meeting with Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Thien Chairperson of the Provincial People’s Committee
1. Plan on CC awarenessawareness raise as a part of
the ICZM capacity building
2. Enhance the coastal zone management
regulation framework towards adaptive
to climate change.
3. Re-assess the carrying capacity of
coastal zone and lagoons and potential
adaptive capacity to respond to climate
change.
4. Plan for setting up requirement on climate
change adaptation into EIA for projects
in the coastal zone
Climate change consideration into ICZM
NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008
Climate change and Chan May Climate change and Chan May
-- Lang Co economic zone.Lang Co economic zone.
1.1. Plan for adjustment Plan for adjustment Reasonable projection of Reasonable projection of area area based on vulnerable maps.based on vulnerable maps.
2.2. Consideration CC into EIA for Consideration CC into EIA for investment projectsinvestment projects
3.3. Plan for considering sea level Plan for considering sea level rise 50 cm in 2050 and 1m in rise 50 cm in 2050 and 1m in 2100 for sea dyke, 2100 for sea dyke, embankment, sea port embankment, sea port constructionsconstructions
4.4. Afforest and protect coastal Afforest and protect coastal forestforest
5.5. Construct storm shelter for Construct storm shelter for ships, high strong building ships, high strong building shelter for civilization.shelter for civilization.
6.6. Develop and operate the Develop and operate the climate change observation, climate change observation, monitoring system in the area.monitoring system in the area.
source: Consultation group of CCP
Districts and communes:
1. Awareness raising on the impact of
climate change.
2. Implement climate change mitigation
policy and sustainable use of natural
resources policy.
3. Development and implementation
commune plan on disaster protection
Household:
1. Awareness raising on reasonable and
effective use of natural resources and
energy.
2. Participation in coastal forestation,
protect irrigation and flood protection
constructions.
3. Development of suitable handcraft
adapting to climate change.
Districts disaster protection plan should be revised in CC
Flooded point in historical flood in 1999
Capacity building for province Capacity building for province and lessonsand lessons
NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008
Interview on NCAP and CC
for local TV broadcast
Stakeholder Workshop
Stakeholder consultation and Capacity
building for Province:
Meetings, Interviews, workshops
PPC leader awareness and support
1. Decision-makers and public awareness improving
2. Nominating focal point for climate change
activities in province (DONRE)4. Technical expert team in province5. Closer co-operation among different agencies in province6. Plan Raising management capacity for ICZM 7. Plan for development PAPA on climate change under the NTP
NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008
1.1. Climate change information are highly scientific and Climate change information are highly scientific and uncertain. The local policy makers need a good interpretation uncertain. The local policy makers need a good interpretation for decision process for decision process 2.2. Climate change is long term process so that more Climate change is long term process so that more effectiveness when focuses to longeffectiveness when focuses to long--term planning, term planning, policy/program.policy/program.3.3. Considering Climate change information by PPC and local Considering Climate change information by PPC and local agencies in revising development plans, ICZM strategy and agencies in revising development plans, ICZM strategy and strategic environmental assessment of Special Economic strategic environmental assessment of Special Economic Zone is the NCAP project contribution to local planning Zone is the NCAP project contribution to local planning process adapting to climate changeprocess adapting to climate change4.4. CC is cross sector issue, Strong policy coherence and coCC is cross sector issue, Strong policy coherence and co--ordination between provincial Dep. is needed. ordination between provincial Dep. is needed.
The LessonsThe Lessons
NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008
5. The international technical assistance is very important: The international technical assistance is very important: -- To provide in time guideline and new methodologyTo provide in time guideline and new methodology-- Broad wide information from international sources Broad wide information from international sources
overviewed by technical Advisor which have good influence overviewed by technical Advisor which have good influence on the local process.on the local process.6.6. Further international support is needed. The province is Further international support is needed. The province is seeking donor for most prioritized:seeking donor for most prioritized:
-- Public awareness rising and implementing revised Public awareness rising and implementing revised ICZM strategy in climate change condition.ICZM strategy in climate change condition.
- Developing and implementing the provincial climate change adaptation program of action. 7. People know better how to adapt to CC but they need People know better how to adapt to CC but they need guidance and good organization. Further capacity building guidance and good organization. Further capacity building is needed.is needed.
The LessonsThe Lessons
NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008
Institute of Meteorology Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Hydrology and EnvironmentEnvironmentNo. 5/62 Nguyen Chi No. 5/62 Nguyen Chi
Thanh Thanh strstr., Ha ., Ha NoiNoiTel. 04 8359 540, 8355815 Tel. 04 8359 540, 8355815 Fax: 04 8355 993Fax: 04 8355 993Email:Email:[email protected]@vkttv.edu.vnWebsite: Website: http://www.imh.ac.vnhttp://www.imh.ac.vn;;http://www.dgroups.org/groups/ncap
Thua Thien Hue sea-shore morning