NEP Generation 2012

7/31/2019 NEP Generation 2012

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NNN aaatttiiiooonnnaaalll

EEEllleeeccctttrrriiiccciiitttyyy

PPPlllaaannn

(Volume 1)

Generation[In fulfilment of CEA's obligation under

section 3(4) of the Electricity Act 2003]

Government of IndiaMinistry of Power

Central Electricity Authority

January 2012


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N ational

E lectr icity

P lan

(Volume 1)

Generation[In fulfilment of CEA's obligation under

section 3(4) of the Electricity Act 2003]

Government of IndiaMinistry of Power

Central Electricity Authority

January 2012


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Central Electricity Authori ty National Electricity Plan U/S3 (4) of Electricity Act 2003

Contents

CONTENTS

Chapter No. Subject Page

1 Introduction 1-18

2 Review of Capacity addition in 11th Five Year Plan (2007-12) 19-36

3 Demand Projections for Electricity 37-42

4 Initiatives and Measures for GHG Mitigation 43-88

5 Generation Planning 89-98

6 Generation Capacity addition Programme for 12th & 13th

Plan

99-126

7 Optimisation of Land and Water Requirement for Thermal

Power Plants

127-134

8 Low Carbon Growth Strategy for Indian Power sector for

12th

& 13th

Five Year Plan

135-150

9 Key Inputs for 12th Plan 151-168

10 Integrated Planning by the States 169-172

11 Fuel Requirement 173-192

12 Energy Conservation and Demand side management 193-222

13 Requirement of Peaking Power and Reserve Margin 223-238

14 Conclusions and Recommendations 239-246

Acronyms 247-252


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Introduction Chapter 1: Page | 1

Chapter 1

INTRODUCTION

1.0 BACKGROUND

Growth of power sector is the key to the

economic development of our country.Growth in production of electricity has ledto its extensive use in all the sectors ofeconomy in the successive five yearsplans. Over the years the installedcapacity of Power Plants (Utilities) hasincreased to about 1,86,655 MW (byDecember,2011) from a meagre 1713 MWin 1950. Similarly, the electricitygeneration increased from about 5.1

Billion kwh to 789 Billion kwh in 2010-11.The per capita consumption of electricityin the country also increased from 15 kWhin 1950 to about 814 kWh in 2011. About90% of the villages have been electrified.However, the country continues to havemismatch between demand and supplyand experienced energy and peakshortages to the tune of 8.5% and 10.3%respectively during the year 2010-11. Theongoing RGGVY (Rajiv Gandhi GramVidyuthikaran Yojana) envisages access toelectricity to households in rural areas 56%of which do not have access to electricity.The per capita electricity consumption inIndia is 24% of the worlds average and 35%& 28% respectively that of China andBrazil.

1.1 ELECTRICITY ACT 2003 AND

NATIONAL ELECTRICITY POLICY

1.1.1 Electricity Act 2003 and Stipulationsregarding National Electricity Plan

The Electricity Act, 2003 provides anenabling legislation conducive todevelopment of the Power Sector intransparent and competitiveenvironment, keeping in view the interestof the consumers.

As per Section 3(4) of the Electricity Act2003, CEA is required to prepare aNational Electricity Plan in accordancewith the National Electricity Policy andnotify such Plan once in five years. Thedraft plan has to be published andsuggestions and objections invitedthereon from licensees, generatingcompanies and the public within theprescribed time. The Plan has to benotified after obtaining the approval ofthe Central Government. The NationalElectricity Policy stipulates that the Planprepared by CEA and approved by theCentral Government can be used byprospective generating companies,transmission utilities andtransmission/distribution licensees asreference document.


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National Electricity Plan U/S 3 (4) of Electricity Act 2003 Central Electricity Authori ty

Chapter 1: Page | 2 Introduction

1.1.2 National Electricity Policy and

Stipulations regarding National Electricity

Plan

The Aims and Objectives of the NationalElectricity Policy are as follows:

Access to Electricity - Available for allhouseholds in next five years

Availability of Power - Demand to befully met by 2012. Energy and peakingshortages to be overcome andadequate spinning reserve to beavailable.

Supply of Reliable and Quality Powerof specified standards in an efficientmanner and at reasonable rates.

Per capita availability of electricity tobe increased to over 1000 units by2012.

Minimum lifeline consumption of 1unit/household/day as a merit goodby year 2012.

Financial Turnaround and CommercialViability of Electricity Sector.

Protection of consumers interests.As per the Policy, the National ElectricityPlan would be for a short-term frameworkof five years while giving a 15 yearperspective and would include:

Short-term and long term demandforecast for different regions;

Suggested areas/locations for capacityadditions in generation andtransmission keeping in view theeconomics of generation andtransmission, losses in the system,load centre requirements, gridstability, security of supply, quality ofpower including voltage profile, etc;and environmental considerations

including rehabilitation andresettlement;

Integration of such possible locationswith transmission system and

development of national grid includingtype of transmission systems andrequirement of redundancies; and

Different technologies available forefficient generation, transmission anddistribution.

Fuel choices based on economy,energy security and environmentalconsiderations.

The Policy also stipulates that whileevolving the National Electricity Plan, CEAwill consult all the stakeholders includingstate governments and the stategovernments would, at state level,undertake this exercise in coordinationwith stakeholders including distributionlicensees and STUs. While conductingstudies periodically to assess short-termand long-term demand, projections made

by distribution utilities would be given dueweightage. CEA will also interact withinstitutions and agencies having economicexpertise, particularly in the field ofdemand forecasting. Projected growthrates for different sectors of the economywill also be taken into account in theexercise of demand forecasting.

The Policy stipulates that in addition to

enhancing the overall availability ofinstalled capacity to 85%, a spinningreserve of at least 5% at national levelwould need to be created to ensure gridsecurity and quality and reliability ofpower supply.The Policy states that efficienttechnologies, like super-criticaltechnology, IGCC etc; and large size unitswould be gradually introduced for


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generation of electricity as their costeffectiveness gets established.

1.2 VARIOUS INITIATIVES OF THE

GOVERNMENT

1.2.1 Development of Power Projects on

Tariff Based Bidding

Promotion of competition in theelectricity industry in India is one of thekey objectives of the Electricity Act, 2003(the Act). Competitive procurement ofelectricity by the distribution licensees is

expected to reduce the overall cost ofprocurement of power and facilitatedevelopment of power markets.

Section 61 & 62 of the Act provide fortariff regulation and determination oftariff of generation, transmission,wheeling and retail sale of electricity bythe Appropriate Commission. Section 63of the Act states that

Notwithstanding anything contained inSection 62, the Appropriate Commissionshall adopt the tariff if such tariff has beendetermined through transparent processof bidding in accordance with theguidelines issued by the CentralGovernment.

Tariff Policy was issued in January, 2006 to

facilitate procurement of power on tariffbased bidding. Power projects can bedeveloped by States under Case I andCase II bidding as follows:

(i) Where the location, technology orfuel is not specified by the procurer(Case1);

(ii) For hydro-power projects, loadcentre projects or other location

specific projects with specific fuel

allocation such as captive minesavailable, which the procurerintends to set up under tariff basedbidding process (Case 2).

Guidelines for procurement of Power byDistribution licensees and StandardBidding Documents have been issued bythe Ministry of Power. Many projects inHaryana, UP, Gujarat, Maharashtra etc,are being implemented through tariffbased competitive bidding (Case 1/Case 2).

1.2.2 Development of Ultra Mega Projects

An Initiative has been launched by theGovernment for development of coalbased Ultra Mega Power Projects(UMPPs) of about 4,000 MW capacityeach under Tariff based competitivebidding. The UMPPs will be located eitherat pit head based on domestic coal or atcoastal locations based on imported coal.For UMPPs based on domestic coal, coal

block will also be allocated to the projectdeveloper. The Objective is to achievefaster capacity addition and to minimizethe cost of power to consumers due toeconomy of scale. Nine numbers ofUMPPs are being planned at variouslocations in the country. 4 projects, twoeach at pithead and coastal location havealready been awarded at competitivetariffs. These projects are Sasan in

Madhya Pradesh, Tillaya in Jharkhand,Mundra in Gujarat and Krishnapattanam inAndhra Pradesh. 5th UMPP is already inthe bidding stage. Efforts are being madeto bring the remaining 4 UMPPs to thebidding stage.

1.2.3 Allocation of Captive Coal Blocks

The coal production in the country has not

been keeping pace with the increasing


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demand of the Power Sector due tovarious reasons, major one being delay indevelopment of coal mines in the country.This has necessitated the need to import

coal. Moreover, the huge capacityaddition programme during 11th Plan andbeyond as compared to the actualcapacity addition during the past few Planperiods has further aggravated thesituation and the gap between demand

and supply of domestic coal has widened.Therefore, it has been decided to allocatecoal blocks to project developers forcaptive use. All UMPPs at pithead have

been allocated coal blocks.

The number of coal blocks allocated tovarious utilities and the geologicalreserves of the blocks are given in Table1.1below:

Table: 1.1

Details of Captive Coal Blocks Allocation to Power Sector

Utility Coal Blocks Geological Reserves (MT)

CPSU 13 6893

State Utilities 39 12717

UMPPs 7 2607

Private 32 6076

Total 91 28294

16 blocks with a reserve of 1355 MT are

under operation. Mining Plan has beenapproved for 26 blocks (reserve-7787MT).The captive mine blocks have to bedeveloped on priority to meet thecapacity addition targets for the 12th plan.

1.2.4 New Hydro Policy

With a view to ensure accelerateddevelopment of the hydro power, a New

Hydro Policy has been announced by theGovernment. As per this Policy, the StateGovernments would be required to followa transparent procedure for awardingpotential sites to the private sector. Theconcerned private developer would berequired to follow the existing proceduresuch as getting DPR prepared and otherstatutory clearances and thenapproaching the appropriate regulator for

fixation of tariff of the project. Merchant

sale is to reduce with delay incommissioning of the projects. Provisionshave also been made for providingincentives for local area developmentfund and project affected families.

New Hydro Policy enables developer torecover his additional costs throughmerchant sale of upto a maximum of 40%of the saleable energy. Further, 1% free

power from the project is to be allocatedfor Local Area Development for welfareschemes, creation of additionalinfrastructure and common facilities. TheState Governments are also expected tocontribute a matching 1% from their shareof 12% free power for local areadevelopment.


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1.2.5 Private Sector Participation in

Transmission Sector

The Inter-state transmission sector wasopened up for private sector participationthrough joint venture with Powergrid andthrough selection of Transmission SystemProvider through competitive bidding.Transmission is a licensed activity andPowergrid as the Central TransmissionUtility is a deemed licensee. Therefore,the Central Commission had to beapproached by the joint venture (JV)companies for grant of transmission

license. Torrent Powergrid Company Ltd.,Jaypee Powergrid Ltd., Parbati KoldamTransmission Co. Ltd., Teesta Valley PowerTransmission Ltd. and North-EastTransmission Co. Ltd. were grantedlicenses for purpose of developing specifictransmission projects. Subsequently, MoPissued Guidelines for EncouragingCompetition in Development ofTransmission Projects and Tariff based

Competitive Bidding Guidelines forTransmission Services, as well as StandardBid Documents for procuring transmissionservices through the market route.While selecting the transmission projectsfor competitive bidding, the lead timerequirement of about one year forcompleting the bidding process has to bekept in view. The Transmission ServiceAgreement is required to be pre-signed by

the beneficiaries before the RFP stage.There are large numbers of beneficiariesof an Inter-State Transmission schemessome times in more than one region and ittakes considerable efforts and time to getthe Transmission Service Agreementinitialled from all the beneficiaries. Also,the scope has to be frozen before RFPstage as no modification is possible afterinvitation of the tariff bids. The

transmission service provider selected

through tariff based competitive biddingsubsequently takes over the SPV companyof REC/PFC and then has to approach toCERC for grant of transmission license andacceptance of market discovered tariff bythe Commission, and in the meanwhilealso has to achieve financial closure.

MoP has constituted empoweredcommittee headed by Member, CERC foridentifying projects to be implementedthrough competitive bidding andproviding guidance to the Bid ProcessCoordinator. MoP has appointed REC and

PFC as Bid Process Coordinator. ThreeInter-State Transmission projects havebeen awarded to private sector recentlythrough competitive bidding route. Threemore projects have been taken up andthese are now in the RFQ stage. In future,more projects are to be taken up throughcompetitive bidding route.

1.2.6 National Action Plan for Climate

Change

The National Action Plan for climatechange (NAPCC) was launched by thePrime Minister in June 2008. NAPCC seeksto promote sustainable developmentthrough use of clean technologies. ThePlan aims to limit Indias greenhouse gasemissions to less than that of developedcountries. The Plan will be implemented

thorough eight missions which representmulti-pronged, long-term and integratedstrategies for achieving key goals in thecontext of climate change.

The stated objective is to establish aneffective, cooperative and equitableglobal approach based on the principle ofcommon but differentiatedresponsibilities and relative capabilities

enshrined in the UNFCC.


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Success of Indias efforts would beenhanced if the developed nations fulfiltheir commitments under UNFCC to

transfer additional financial resources andclimate friendly technologies to thedeveloping countries.

NAPCC identifies following eight NationalMissions

National Solar Mission National Mission for Enhanced

Energy Efficiency

National Mission on SustainableHabitat

National Water Mission National Mission for sustaining the

Himalayan Ecosystem

National Mission for a GreenIndia

National Mission for sustainableAgriculture

National Mission on StrategicKnowledge for Climate Change

Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission -

Towards Building SOLAR INDIA

The National Solar Mission is a majorinitiative of the Government of India andState Governments to promoteecologically sustainable growth whileaddressing Indias energy security

challenge. It will also constitute a majorcontribution by India to the global effortto meet the challenges of climate change.The objective of the National SolarMission is to establish India as a globalleader in solar energy, by creating thepolicy conditions for its diffusion acrossthe country as quickly as possible.

The Mission will adopt a 3-phaseapproach, spanning the remaining periodof the 11th Plan and first year of the 12thPlan (up to 2012-13) as Phase 1, the

remaining 4 years of the 12th Plan (2013-17)as Phase 2 and the 13th Plan (2017-22) asPhase 3. At the end of each plan, and mid-term during the 12th and 13th Plans, therewill be an evaluation of progress, reviewof capacity and targets for subsequentphases, based on emerging cost andtechnology trends, both domestic andglobal. The aim would be to protectGovernment from subsidy exposure in

case expected cost reduction does notmaterialize or is more rapid thanexpected. The immediate aim of theMission is to focus on setting up anenabling environment for solartechnology penetration in the countryboth at a centralized and decentralizedlevel. The first phase (up to 2013) willfocus on capturing of the low-hangingoptions in solar thermal; on promoting

off-grid systems to serve populationswithout access to commercial energy andmodest capacity addition in grid-basedsystems. In the second phase, after takinginto account the experience of the initialyears, capacity will be aggressivelyramped up to create conditions for upscaled and competitive solar energypenetration in the country.

To achieve this, the Mission targets are:

To create an enabling policyframework for the deployment of20,000 MW of solar power by 2022.

To ramp up capacity of grid-connectedsolar power generation to 1000 MWwithin three years by 2013; anadditional 3000 MW by 2017 through


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the mandatory use of the renewablepurchase obligation by utilities backedwith a preferential tariff. This capacitycan be more than doubled reaching10,000MW installed power by 2017 ormore, based on the enhanced andenabled international finance andtechnology transfer. The ambitioustarget for 2022 of 20,000 MW or more,will be dependent on the learning ofthe first two phases, which ifsuccessful, could lead to conditions ofgrid-competitive solar power. Thetransition could be appropriately up

scaled, based on availability ofinternational finance and technology.

To create favourable conditions forsolar manufacturing capability,particularly solar thermal forindigenous production and marketleadership.

To promote programmes for off grid

applications, reaching 1000 MW by2017 and 2000 MW by 2022.

To achieve 15 million sq. meters solarthermal collector area by 2017 and 20million by 2022.

To deploy 20 million solar lightingsystems for rural areas by 2022.

Strategy for implementation of firstphase of 1300 MW

Bundling of 1000 MW unallocatedpower.

Roof top reimbursement to states.

1.2.7 Restructured Accelerated Power

Development and Reform

Programme (R-APDRP) during XI

Plan (2007-12)

The Govt. of India has accorded sanctionto implement Restructured AcceleratedPower Development and ReformProgramme (R-APDRP) during the 11THPlan with revised terms and conditions asa Central Sector Scheme. The focus of theprogramme is on actual, demonstrableperformance in terms of sustained lossreduction.

Restructured APDRP was approved withan outlay of Rs 51,577 crore.

It is proposed to cover urban areas -towns and cities with population of morethan 30,000 (10,000 in case of specialcategory states). In addition, in certainhigh-load density rural areas withsignificant loads, works of separation of

agricultural feeders from domestic andindustrial ones, and of High VoltageDistribution System (11kV) will also betaken up. Further, towns / areas for whichprojects have been sanctioned in X Plan R-APDRP shall be considered for the XI Planonly after either completion or shortclosure of the earlier sanctioned projects.Projects under the scheme shall be takenup in Two Parts. Part-A shall include the

projects for establishment of baselinedata and IT applications for energyaccounting/auditing & IT based consumerservice centres and Part-B shall includeregular distribution strengtheningprojects.

Power Finance Corporation (PFC) as nodalagency for R-APDRP in XI plan will providenecessary assistance for smooth

implementation of programme.


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1.2.8 Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran

Yojana

Central Govt. has launched Rajiv Gandhi

Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana of RuralElectricity Infrastructure and HouseholdElectrification on 4th April, 2005 for theattainment of the National CommonMinimum Programme (NCMP) goal forproviding access to electricity to allhouseholds in five years. The scheme aimsat electrification of 125,000 un-electrifiedvillages and un-electrified hamlets andelectrification of 7.8 crore households.

The estimated cost of the scheme(including XI Plan) was Rs.16000 croresapproximately and Rs.5000 crores wereearmarked for capital subsidy in phase- Iduring the 10th Plan Period.

Under the scheme 90% capital subsidywould be provided for overall cost of theproject for provision of:

Rural Electricity InfrastructureBackbone (REDB) with at least one33/11 KV(or 66/11 KV) substation ineach block

Village Electrification Infrastructure(VEI) with at least one distributiontransformer in each village/habitation

Decentralized Distribution Generation(DDG) System where grid supply iseither not feasible or not cost

effective.

Guidelines for village electrificationthrough Decentralized DistributedGeneration (DDG) under RGGVY in the XI

plan have been approved and circulatedvide OM No.44/1/2007-RE dated 12thJanuary,2009.

Government of India has approved thecontinuation of the scheme in 11th Plan forattaining the goal of providing access toelectricity to all households, electrificationof about 1.15 lakh unelectrified villagesand electricity connections to 2.34 crore

BPL households by 2012 with a capitalsubsidy of Rs. 28,000 crores .

1.2.9 Augmentation of Indigenous

Equipment Manufacturing Capacity

All efforts have been made to ensure thatmanufacturing capacity for Main Plantequipment in the country is suitablyenhanced to meet capacity addition

requirement during 11th Plan and beyondby enhancing manufacturing capability ofexisting manufacturers and byencouraging new vendors.

With above collaborations it may beconcluded that country have sufficientmanufacturing capability for main plantequipments.

CEA has already reviewed the Pre-qualification requirement of suppliers ofSuper Critical boilers and turbine-generators to facilitate entry of newplayers and has recommended the samefor adoption by central and state powerutilities. In order to promote indigenousmanufacturing and transfer of technologyof super critical technology, bulk

tendering of 11 units of 660 MW withsuper critical technology for NTPC & DVCprojects has been initiated withmandatory phased indigenousmanufacturing.

An assessment of requirement of Balanceof Plant equipment for power plants hasalso been carried out and efforts are


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being made to enhance themanufacturing capacity of existingvendors and encourage new vendors also.

It is necessary to sensitize the industryabout the long term requirement of BoPsfor the power sector to attractinvestment in BoP segment. Ministry ofPower and CEA have already taken aninitiative in coordination with CII tosensitize the industry about therequirement of BoPs.

BoP is not a high technology area and a

vendor having experience of executingother infrastructure project could alsodevelop BoP execution capabilities. Thishas been considered to avoid theoverburdening the existing BoPmanufacturers. CEA has already reviewedthe pre-qualification requirement for BoPvendors and the pre-qualification reportfor the various BoP packages has beenfinalised by CEA in consultation with the

stakeholders. The recommendations ofCEA have been forwarded to all state andcentral power utilities for adoption.

1.2.10 Demand Side Management

Initiatives by BEE

Recognizing the fact that efficient use ofenergy and its conservation is the least-cost option to mitigate the gap between

demand and supply, Government of Indiahas enacted the Energy Conservation (EC)Act 2001 and established Bureau ofEnergy Efficiency (BEE).

The Act provides for institutionalizing andstrengthening delivery mechanism forenergy efficiency services in the countryand provides the much-neededcoordination between the various entities.

The Bureau would be responsible for

implementation of policy programmesand co-ordination of implementation ofenergy conservation activities.

The mission of BEE is to develop policyand strategies with a thrust on self-regulation and market principles, withinthe overall framework of the EC Act withthe primary objective of reducing energyintensity of the Indian economy.

Mandatory Provisions of the EC Act

Strengthening energy managementand energy auditing capabilities ofenergy professionals

Accreditation of energy auditors Fixation of norms for different

industrial sectors

Conduction of Mandatory energyaudits by designated consumers

Notification of State DesignatedAgencies

Standards & Labelling for notifiedenergy consuming equipment andappliances

Energy Conservation Building Codes fornew commercial buildings havingconnected load of 500kW or more

PROGRAMME AND MEASURES

Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) hasalready identified thrust areas and

prepared a detailed Action Plan listing outassociated activities to be carried out by itfor implementing projects andprogrammes to promote efficient use ofenergy and its conservation. The ActionPlan was launched by the HonourablePrime Minister on 23rdAugust, 2002 at theInternational Conference on Strategies forEnergy Conservation in New Millenniumheld in New Delhi. The Action Plan, inter-

alia, covers:


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Indian Industry Program for EnergyConservation

Demand Side Management Standards and Labelling program Energy efficiency in buildings and

establishments

Energy conservation building codes Professional certification and

accreditation

Manuals and codes Energy efficiency policy research

program

Delivery Mechanisms for energyServices

School education etc.1.2.11 Human Resource Development

Adopt an ITI scheme

To meet the manpower requirementduring the 11th Plan and beyond, highpriority is being accorded to humanresource development and training ofpower sector personnel. A verycomprehensive and pragmatic approachhas been adopted to attract, utilize,develop and conserve valuable humanresources. It has been estimated that anadditional about 1 million workmen,supervisors and engineers would berequired for Construction, Operation andMaintenance of power equipment during11th Plan. In particular, technicians of

specified skills would be required in verylarge numbers. To bridge the gapbetween supply and demand, a schemecalled Adopt an ITI has been initiatedwith a view to building up of skilled workforce in the vicinity of the project. Eventhough we have adequate ITIs, theinfrastructure available in terms ofworkshop facilities and faculty isinadequate. It is required to be

strengthened to produce qualitytechnicians. As per this scheme, ITIs are tobe adopted or new ITI established bypower developers in the vicinity of their

projects to provide opportunity to localpopulation to develop skill in constructionand O & M of the power projects. CentralPublic Sector Undertakings have alreadyadopted some ITIs. Private sector is alsobeing encouraged to help in developinglarge skilled workforce required foraccelerated development of powersector.

1.2.12 Creation of National ElectricityFund(NEF) for Distribution Scheme

Investment in Sub-transmission anddistribution has been lacking due toresource crunch being experienced by theState transmission and distributionutilities. The break-up of the generationand transmission & distribution schemesshall normally be 50:50. However, more

investment is taking place in generationand investment in intra-state transmissionsystem and distribution System has beenmuch less than the desired proportion.There is need to create National ElectricityFund (NEF), has, therefore been proposedto be created for providing financialsupport to State Power Utilities forimproving their transmission &distribution infrastructure. Planning

Commission has already submitted aproposal for creation of NEF for financingof state sector Transmission anddistribution schemes.

1.2.13 IT Based Project Monitoring

Monitoring of construction of PowerProjects is very complex due to a numberof activities being taken up simultaneously


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and in parallel. It isno longer possible tocarry out monitoring of progress ofexecution of a power project by manualsystem. IT based monitoring has beenpromoted to have effective monitoringsystem. Only a few projects beingundertaken in 11th Plan are presently beingmonitored through IT based system whichgives day to day progress of the project.This needs to be replicated in all ongoingprojects to identify bottlenecks and totake timely action for removal of hurdlesin project execution.

1.3 POWER PLANNING BY CEA

Central Electricity Authority (CEA) wasestablished under Section 3 of theElectricity (Supply) Act 1948 and it hascontinued to exercise the functions andperform duties as assigned to it under theElectricity Act 2003. CEA is responsible foroverall planning & development of thePower Sector in the country. CEA is a

technical organization to advise and assistthe central government on mattersrelating to generation, transmission,distribution, trading and utilization ofelectricity. CEA has also been entrustedwith the responsibility of advising Centraland State Regulatory Commissions, StateGovernments, licensees, generatingcompanies on any matter on which adviceis sought or on any matter which shall

enable them to operate the electricalsystem efficiently. Certain other functionsas entrusted to CEA as per Electricity Act2003, include specifying technicalstandards for construction of electricalplants; safety requirements for

construction, operation and maintenanceof electrical plants & lines; grid standardsfor operation and maintenance oftransmission lines and the conditions forinstallation of meters for transmission andsupply of electricity.

1.4 NATIONAL ELECTRICITY PLAN FOR 11TH

PLAN

The National Electricity Plan covering thereview of 10th Plan, detailed plan for 11thplan and perspective plan for 12th Plan wasprepared by CEA in November 2004 and

was circulated to all stakeholders as wellas put up on the CEA Website invitingcomments by 15th March 2005, laterextended to 15th April 2005. CEA receivedcomments on draft National ElectricityPlan from various stakeholders. Aftertaking in to consideration variouscomments and suggestion received fromvarious stakeholders, the plan wasfinalised by the Authority. The Plan was

finally approved by Government in July,2007 and it was notified in the Gazette ofIndia vide gazette No.159 dated 3rdAugust,2007. A review of the Plan is givenin the next Chapter.

1.5 PRESENT POWER SCENARIO IN THE

COUNTRY

Installed Capacity

The Installed Capacity of the country as on31st December, 2011 was 1,86, 655 MW asdepicted in the Exhibit 1.1as follows:


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Exhibit 1.1 All India Installed Capacity (as on 31st December, 2011)

NUCLEAR,

4780, 3%

HYDRO,

38748.4, 20

GAS, 17742.85,

10%DIESEL,

1199.75, 1%

COAL,

104021.4, 55

NEW

RENEWABLES,

20162.24, 11%

Note: Capacit y of Renewables is available only up to 30.06.2011

The country has significant potential ofgeneration from renewable energysources. All efforts are being taken byGovernment of India to harness thispotential. The Installed capacity as on 31st

December, 2011 from renewable energy

sources is 20,162 MW which comprisesof 3225.92 MW in the State sector and16936.32 MW in the Private sector. The

Total Renewable Installed Capacitycomprises of 14104.62 MW from Wind,3120.83 MW from Small Hydro Plants,2787.63 MW from Biomass Power &Biomass Gasifiers and 149.16 MW fromSolar power & Urban & Industrial waste.

India ranks fifth in the world in terms ofinstalled capacity of wind turbine powerplants.

Exhibit 1.2

All India Installed Capacity (Renewable) As on 31st December, 2011

Note: Capacit y of Renewables is available only up to 30.06.2011

RENEWABLE INSTALLED CAPACITY

Solar149 MW,

1%

Biomass,

2788MW,

13.7%

Small Hydro,

3121MW,

15.3% Wind,14105MW,70%


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The growth of Installed Capacity and Generation in India from various sources is shown inExhibit 1.3, 1.4 & Table 1.2 below:

Table 1.2

Growth of Electricity GenerationPlan/Year Generation Growth rate in (%) Compound Growth (%)

8th Plan

1992-93 301.07 5.0 6.611993-94 323.53 7.51994-95 351.03 8.51995-96 380.08 8.31996-97 394.80 3.9

9th Plan

1997-98 420.62 6.5 5.471998-99 448.37 6.61999-2000 480.68 7.22000-01 499.55 3.92001-02 515.25 3.1

10th Plan

2002-03 531.61 3.2 5.162003-04 558.34 5.02004-05 587.42 5.22005-06 617.51 5.12006-07 662.52 7.3

11th Plan

2007-08 704.47 6.32008-09 723.79 2.7

2009-10 771.60 6.6

2010-11 811.10 5.6

Exhibit 1.3

ALL INDIA INSTALLED CAPACITY

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

1985-86

1986-87

1987-88

1988-89

1989-90

1990-91

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

Years

MW

ThermalHydro

Nuclear RES


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Exhibit 1.4

ALL INDIA GROSS GENERATION

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

1985-86

1986-87

1987-88

1988-89

1989-90

1990-91

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

Years

GrossGeneration-GW

H

ThermalHydro

Nuclear

RES

Coal based generation contributes majorpart of the installed capacity andcontributes to about 68.6% of the totalenergy generation (year 2008-09). Inaddition to above, the installed capacity ofcaptive power plants of 1MW and above isof the order of 24,986 MW at the end of

2007-08.The energy generated fromcaptive power plants during the year2007-08 was 90477 GWh.

Actual Power Supply Position

The country has been facing growingshortages over the past five years. During

the year 2007-08 (1st year of 11th Plan), thepeak deficit was about 18,000 MW (16.5%)and the average energy shortage in thecountry was about 73 Billion kWh (10%).During the year 2008-09 (2nd year of 11thPlan), the peak deficit was about 13,000MW (12%) and the average energy

shortage in the country was about 86Billion kWh (11%). During the year 2009-10(3rd year of 11th Plan), the peak deficit wasabout 15,157 MW (12.7%) and the averageenergy shortage in the country was about84 Billion kWh (10.1%).

Table 1.3

All-India Actual Power Supply Position (2010-11)

(April, 2010- March, 2011)

Peak (MW) Energy

(Billion kWh)

Requirement 1,22,287 861Availability 1,10,256 788(-) Shortage/(+) Surplus (-) 12,031 (-) 73

(%) (-) 9.8 % (-) 8.5 %

The details of peak and energy shortagesin the country at the end of 7th, 8th, 9th,

10th and 11th Plans are given in Table 1.4below.


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Table 1.4

Details of Power Supply Position during Past PlansREGION/

STATE/U.T.

PEAK

DEMAND(MW)

PEAK

AVAIL-ABILITY

(MW)

SURPLUS/

DEFICIT(MW)

SURPLUS/

DEFICIT(%)

ENERGY

REQUIRE-MENT

(MU)

ENERGY

AVAIL-ABILITY

(MU)

SURPLUS/

DEFICIT(MU)

SURPLUS/

DEFICIT(%)

At the End of 7th Plan(1989-90)

40385 33658 -6727 -16.7 247762 228151 -19611 -7.9

At the end of 8th Plan(1996-97)

63853 52376 -11477 -18.0 413490 365900 -47590 -11.5

At the end of 9th Plan(2001-02)

78441 69189 -9252 -11.8 522537 483350 -39187 -7.5

At the End Of 10th Plan(2006-07)

100715 86818 -13897 -13.8 690587 624495 -66092 -9.6

11t Plan2007-08 108866 90793 -18073 -16.6 705724 628016 -77708 -11.02008-09 109809 96685 -13124 -12.0 774,324 689,021 -85,303 -11.02009-10 119166 104009 -15157 -13.8 830594 746644 -83950 -10.12010-11 122287 110256 -12031 -9.8 861591 788355 -73236 -8.5

2011-12(April-December) 1,27,724 1,14,233 -13,491 -10.6 6,94,780 6,39,908 -54,872 -7.9

Annual Electric Load Factor

The Annual Electric Load Factor is theratio of the energy availability in thesystem to the energy that would havebeen required during the year if the

annual peak load met was incident on thesystem through out the year. This factordepends on the pattern of Utilization ofdifferent categories of load. The Annual

Electric Load factor has remained close to80% since 2000-01, primarily because ofprevailing shortages in the system and theload staggering measure adopted in thevarious states particularly staggeredsupply to agriculture in groups. Since the

shortages are rising, the Annual ElectricLoad Factor also illustrates an increasingtrend and is depicted in the Exhibit 1.5 asfollows:

Exhibit 1.5

Variation of System Load Factor

SYSTEM LOAD FACTOR

79.44

78.8

80.8

82.11

83.74

81.62

79.75

81.95

81.5180.54

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Year

SystemLoadFactor(%)

Reserve Margin and Hydro Thermal Mix Reserve margin of a System is defined as

the difference between the Installed


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Capacity and the peak load met as apercentage of the Peak load met. Thisfactor depends on a number ofparameters, major ones being the mode

of power generation i.e. hydro, thermal,renewable and the availability of thegenerating stations. Reserve Margin inother countries varies from 16% to 75%.

The Hydro thermal mix in generation hasmarginally increased from 25.01% in 2000-01 to about 26.19% as on 31st March 2007and thereafter has been decreasing and

stands at 23.13 as on 31st March, 2010.However the Reserve Margin hasdecreased from 34.61% in 2000-01 to 27.71%in 2009-10. This is illustrated in the Exhibit1.6 below:

Exhibit 1.6

Variation of Reserve Margin and Hydro Thermal Mix

Variation of Reserve Margin and Hydro Thermal Mix

30.28

27.92

31.18

27.71

23.13

28.1630.31

34.61

33.132.66

31.25

25.01

24.81

26.19

26.13 26.01 26.1925.1 24.9

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

2000-

01

2001-

02

2002-

03

2003-

04

2004-

05

2005-

06

2006-

07

2007-

08

2008-

09

2009-

10

2010-

11

Year

Reserve Margin RM (%) Hydro Thermal Mix

This reduction in Reserve Margin is onaccount of increase in thermal PLF from69 % in 2000-01 to 77.5 % in 2009-10 onaccount of improvement in technology

and O&M practices and higher efficiencyparameters of thermal machines. This isillustrated in the Exhibit 1.7 below:

Exhibit1.7

Variation of Reserve Margin & PLF

Variation of Reserve Margin and Thermal PLF

27.7128.16

30.31

34.61

33.1 32.66

31.25

30.28

27.92 31.18

69.9

72.2

72.7

74.8 73.676.8 78.6 77.2

77.5

75.1

69

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000-

01

2001-

02

2002-

03

2003-

04

2004-

05

2005-

06

2006-

07

2007-

08

2008-

09

2009-

10

2010-

11

Year

Reserve Margin RM (%) Thermal PLF


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The plant load factor of gas plant has alsoincreased from 48 % in 2000-01 to about65 % in 2009-10. The increase in PLF of gasplants during 2009-10 has been due toadditional availability of gas from KGbasin. The nuclear Load Factor howeverhas reduced from 82 % in 2000-01 to 46.5%in 2007-08 due to fuel shortage, but hasimproved to 65.45% in 2009-10. However,this has only marginal effect on thereserve margin due to nuclear capacitybeing a small component in InstalledCapacity. It is expected that with further

improvement in technology of thermalpower generation and higher unit size, asalso higher availability of gas and nuclearfuel, Reserve margin is further expectedto improve in future.

An encouraging feature is that thisdecreasing Reserve Margin trend over theyears has been observed in spite of thehydro thermal mix has been varyingmarginally. This implies that effect ofincreased PLF of thermal stations is morepredominant in reducing the ReserveMargin than the effect of hydro thermalmix of Installed Capacity to increase theReserve Margin.

1.6 12TH PLAN NATIONAL ELECTRICITY

PLAN

As mandated by the Act and the Policy,CEA has prepared the National ElectricityPlan for the 12th Plan, the perspectivePlan for the 13th Plan and a review of theStatus of implementation of the 11th Plan.

---+++---


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Review of Capacity Addition in 11th

Five Year Plan (2007-12) Chapter 2: Page | 19

Chapter 2

REVIEW OF CAPACITY ADDITION IN 11TH FIVE YEAR PLAN (2007-12)

2.0INTRODUCTION

The capacity addition for the11th Plan wasplanned keeping in view the aims andobjectives of the National Electricity

Policy. The capacity addition target set forthe 11th Plan was 78,700 MW, aboutquadruple of what could be actuallyachieved during the 10th Plan. Achievingthis huge target required timelyplacement of orders, augmentation ofmanufacturing capacity, skilled manpowerand construction machinery, timelystatutory clearances and close monitoring& coordination between the executing

agencies. This Chapter includes details oflikely capacity addition and the effortsbeing made to address the constraintsbeing faced in timely execution of thepower projects.

2.1 11TH PLAN TARGET

One of the major objectives of theNational Electricity Policy is that demandis to be fully met by the year 2012 with all

peaking and energy shortages to beremoved. In addition, the overallavailability of Installed Capacity is to beenhanced to 85% and a Spinning Reserveof at least 5% needs to be created. Also,the per capita availability of electricity isto be increased to over 1000 kWh by 2012.Towards fulfilling these objectives andconsidering the feasibility ofimplementation of various projects to

materialize during the 11th Plan, thecapacity addition target for the 11th Planwas fixed at 78,700 MW as per detailsgiven in the Exhibits 2.1 to 2.3 below:

Table 2.1

11th Plan Capacity Addition Target

Figures in MW

SOURCE Central State Private TOTAL

Hydro 8654 3482 3491 15627

Thermal 24840 23301 11552 59693

Nuclear 3380 - - 3380

Total 36874 26783 15043 78700


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National Electricity Plan U/S 3 (4) of Electricity Act 2003 Central Electricity Authority

Chapter 2: Page | 20 Review of Capacity Addition in 11th

Five Year Plan (2007-12)

Exhibit 2.1

Hydro

15627

20%

Coal

50570

64%

Lignite

2280

3%

Gas/ LNG

6843

9%

Nuclear

3380

4%

Total: 78700 MW

Exhibit 2.2

Central

36874

47%

State

26783

34%

Private

1504319%

Total: 78700 MW

2.2 PREPARATION FOR CAPACITY

ADDITION IN 11TH PLAN

2.2.1 Indigenous Manufacturing

Capacity: BHEL being the largest supplierof power plants equipment was expectedto get major orders for the 11th plan. CEAhad anticipated placement of order ofover 50% of generation capacity on BHELand power sector was heavily dependenton BHEL for timely supply and executionof power projects. CEA reviewed thepreparation of BHEL to meet the capacity

addition requirements of the 11th plan.Before the commencement of the 11thplan, CEA teams visited the BHEL worksand held detailed discussions with BHELexecutives about the requirement ofpower sector and their plans forexpansion to meet the increasingrequirement of the power sector. CEA inits report of March,2007 recommendedaugmentation of manufacturing capacity,enhancing of vendor list to outsourcemanufacturing of some of the items,enhancing manpower in manufacturing,


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design & engineering and projectexecution, advance procurement actionfor critical items, such as forging,castings, high pressure boiler materials forwhich there are few suppliers world wide ,procurement of adequate constructionmachinery instead of depending on theleased one and IT based monitoring.Review meetings were held with BHEL todiscuss the augmentation plan of BHEL.

2.2.2 Action was also taken to arrangecoal linkage for 11th plan projects. Matterwas taken up with MoE&F to accord

priority to identified 11th plan projects forEnvironment and Forest clearance.

2.2.3 An International conclave on KeyInputs for Accelerated Development ofPower Sector for 11th Plan & beyond wasorganised by CEA on 4th and 5th July,2007to sensitise the utilities, IPPs and theIndustry about the requirement of thepower sector during the 11th plan. CEA

furnished the requirement of differenttypes of equipments and materials ingeneration, transmission & distributionrequired for implementation of the 11th

plan. The major recommendations ofconclave were augmentation ofmanufacturing capacity both for mainplants and balance of plants, timelyplacement of orders , review of pre-qualification requirements to permit

participation of new players in the bids,measures to augment skilled work forceincluding adopt an ITI schemes by projectdeveloper around the project area todevelop skills amongst the locals,standardisation, etc. Theserecommendations were followed byorganising Regional Workshops atChennai, Chandigarh and Mumbai. Duringthese Conferences, the industry was

impressed upon to enhance their

manufacturing capacity as well asencourage new entrepreneurs in theseareas to meet the requirement of thePower Sector. The constraints being facedin this regard were also discussed and aview was formed to deal with these.

2.2.4 Government of india alsoconstituted a Committee under Dr KiritParekh then Member (Energy) PlanningCommission on Development ofAdditional Vendors for Balance of Plants.The major recommendations of thecommittee are summarized below:

(a) Order for BOPs (or EPC of BoPs)should be placed within six months ofplacement of order for main plant andequipment.(b) Liquidated damages for delay inexecution of project in time should beenhanced to discourage cornering of largenumber of contracts by few suppliers.(c) CEA to finalize the pre-qualification

requirements for BoP vendors byFebruary, 2008 end.(d) CEA and NTPC to complete theexercise for finalizing the guidelines forstandardization/ broad design criterion forvarious packages of BoPs progressively bythe end of August, 2008.(e) Capacity building for availability ofskilled manpower to be taken up by theproject developers.

(f) Whether a level playing field isprovided to domestic supplier and foreignsuppliers needs to be examined.

2.3 MID TERM APPRAISAL TARGET FOR

11TH PLAN

As mentioned above, the target set for

capacity addition during the 11th Plan was

78,700 MW. As per Mid Term Appraisal

(MTA) of Planning Commission, certain


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projects totalling to 21,802MW were likely

to slip from 11th Plan on account of various

reasons viz. delay in placement of order for

main plant, slow progress of civil work,

poor geology etc. Further, certainadditional projects which were originally

not included in the 11th Plan target were

identified for benefits during 11th Plan by

expediting the process of project

implementation and compression of the

construction schedule. This has been

possible through extraordinary efforts

made by Ministry of Power & CEA in

pursuing the developers and other Stake

holders. These additional projects total to

5,156 MW.

Based on the above, capacity addition likely

during 11th plan as per Mid Term Appraisal

(MTA) was fixed as 62,374 MW. A Summary

of the likely slippages and additional

projects identified is given in Table 2.2

below:

Table 2.2SUMMARY OF CAPACITY SLIPPING / ADDITIONAL CAPACITY FOR LIKELY BENEFITS DURING 11TH

PLANFigures in MW

11th Plan Capacity Addition Target (A) 78,700

Slipped From Target (B) 21,802

Balance Capacity (C) 56,898

Change in Capacity of projects as included in Target (D)

Increase in capacity of Anpara C 200

Increase in capacity of Sugen CCGT 20

Increase in capacity of Mettur Ext 100

320

Additional Capacity Likely during 11th Plan Outside Target (E) 5,156

Total Capacity (F) = (C+D+E) 62,374

Thus capacity addition likely during 11th

Plan as per Mid Term Appraisal (MTA) is

62,374 MW. A Sector wise Summary of this

capacity addition target of 62,374 MW is

furnished in Table 2.3 below:

Table 2.3

SUMMARY STATEMENT OF MID TERM APPRAISAL TARGET DURING THE 11TH PLAN

(SECTOR WISE AND TYPE WISE)

(Figs in MW)

HYDR TOTALTHERMAL

THERMAL BREAKUP NUCLEA TOTAL

CENTRAL SECTOR 2922 14920 13430 750 740 0 3380 21222

STATE SECTO 2854 18501 14735 450 3316 0 0 21355

PRIVATE SECTO 2461 17336 13725 1080 2531 0 0 19797

ALL-INDIA 8237 50756.9 41890 2280 65867 0 3380 62374


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2.4 ACTUAL/ LIKELY CAPACITY ADDITION

DURING 11TH PLAN

A capacity of 34,462 MW has beencommissioned during first four years of11th plan. Capacity addition programmeduring 2011-12 is 17,601 MW. Therefore the

likely capacity addition during 11th plan isabout 52,063 MW. As against this the totalcapacity already commissioned during 11thPlan is 45,965 MW. The latest status ofcommissioning of 11th Plan projects is asfollows in Table 2.4.

Table 2.4

(Figures in MW)

Type 2007-

08*

2008-

09*

2009-10 * 2010-11* 2011-

12**

Total

Hydro 2,423 969 39 690 1,990 6,111

Thermal 6,620 2,485 9,106 11,251 13,611 43,073

Nuclear 220 0 440 220 2,000 2,880

Total 9,263 3,454 9,585 12,161 17,601@ 52,063* Commissioned @ 11503 MW already commissioned by Dec,2011

2.5 CAPACITY ADDITION FROM CAPTIVE

POWER PLANTS

Large number of captive plants includingco-generation power plants of variedtype and sizes exist in the country, which

are utilized in process industry and in-house power consumption. A number ofindustries set up their captive plants toensure reliable and quality power. Someplants are also installed as stand-by unitsfor operation only during emergencieswhen the grid supply is not available.Surplus power, if any, from captivepower plants could be fed into the gridas the Electricity Act 2003, provides for

non-discriminatory open access.

As on 31st March, 2011, the InstalledCapacity of Captive Power Plants (1MW

and above) is about 32,900 MW. Theinstalled capacity has registered growthof 4.4 % over the installed captive plantcapacity of 31,517 MW as on 31st March,2010. The energy generation fromcaptive power plants (1MW and above)

during the year 2009-10 was about 106.1billion units and registered a growth ofabout 6.4 % in generation overgeneration of 99.7 billion units during2008-09. During the year 2008-09,surplus power of 8.4 BU from captivewas fed into the grid. Further, a capacityaddition of about 15,495 MW fromCaptive plants is expected by 2012 duringthe 11th Plan based on information

received from captive power plantmanufacturers, industries and othersources.


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2.6 GRID INTERACTIVE RENEWABLE POWER SOURCES DURING 11TH PLAN

In the 11th Plan, a capacity addition of 14,000 MW from renewable power sources hasbeen envisaged. Source- wise details are given in Table 2.5 below:

Table 2.511TH PLAN TENTATIVE TARGETS FOR GRID INTERACTIVE RENEWABLE POWER

(Figures in MW)

Sources / Systems Target for 11th plan

Wind Power 10,500Biomass Power & Biomass Gasifiers 2,100Small Hydro (up to 25 MW) 1400

Total 14,000Source MNRE


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Exhibit 2.3

Wind Power10,500

75%

Biomass Power& BiomassGasifiers

2,10015%

Small Hydro(up to 25 MW)

140010%

Out of the above target of 14,000 MW, acapacity of 9,717 MW has been addedduring the first four years of 11th Plan. Tilldate the capacity addition fromrenewable during 11th Plan is about 12,400

MW. The above target of 14,000 MW forgrid interactive renewable power doesnot include proposed addition of 1000MW from Distributed Renewable PowerSystem (DRPS).

2.7 YEAR-WISE TARGETS & ACTUAL

CAPACITY ADDITION

CAPACITY ADDITION TARGET /

ACHIEVEMENT DURING 2007-08, 2008-09,

2009-10,2 010-11

A summary of revised programme/targets

and actual achievement for 2007-08,2008-09, 2009-10 and 2010-11 is as below:

Capacity addition Target/Achievement during 2007-08,2008-09, 2009-10 & 2010-11

(Figures in MW)

Hydro Thermal Nuclear Total

Target Actual Target Actual Target Actual Target Actual

2007-08 2372 2423 8907 6620 660 220 12039 9263

2008-09 1097 969 5773 2485 660 0 7530 3454*

2009-10 845 39 13002 9106 660 440 14507 9585

2010-11 1,346 690 17,793 11,251 1,220 220 20,359 12161

*Low achievement due to change in definition of commissioning by CEA/MoPDetails of projects planned & likely during 11th Plan are furnished in Annexure 2.1


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2.8 CHANGES IN DEFINITION OF

COMMISSIONING BY CEA/MoP IN AUG, 08

The commissioning / capacity addition

shall be deemed to have taken place onlyafter a unit has demonstrated itscapability to generate power at nameplate rating except for nuclear plants andreservoir based hydro stations. The dateof capacity addition shall be the datewhen the following conditions have beenfulfilled:

A. Thermal (Coal , Gas, Lignite)

i. The construction andcommissioning of all plants andequipment required for safeoperation of the unit is complete.

ii. The trial run operation has started.iii. The unit has touched full rated load

with designated fuel.

B. Hydro

i. The trial run operation has started.

ii. The unit has achieved full ratedcapacity in case of purely run ofriver stations and run ofriver stations with pondage.

iii. The unit has achieved full ratedcapacity or the design capacitycorresponding to prevailingreservoir level in case of storagepower stations.

C. NuclearNuclear units shall be declared to have

been commissioned after these aredeclared Commercially operational byplant authority.

Prior to this, a unit was consideredcommissioned just on synchronizationwith the grid.

2.9 REASONS FOR DELAY IN

COMMISSIONING OF PROJECTS DURING

11th PLAN.

Delay in placement of orders - mainlyCivil Works and Balance of Plants(BOPs)

Delay and non-sequential supply ofmaterial for Main Plant and BoPs.

Shortage of skilled manpower forerection and commissioning.

Contractual dispute between projectdeveloper and contractor and their sub-vendors/sub-contractors.

Inadequate deployment ofconstruction machinery.

Shortage of fuel (Gas and Nuclear).

Land Acquisition.

Inadequate infrastructure facilities likereliable construction power supply andconstraints in transportation of heavyequipment.

2.10 MAJOR CONSTRAINTS IN POWER

SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE

STRATEGY INITIATED BY THE

GOVERNMENT TO MEET THESE

CHALLENGES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

Enhancing Manufacturing Capacity of

Main Plant

BHEL has augmented its manufacturingcapacity from 6000 MW/year to 15,000

MW/year and is in the process ofaugmenting its capacity further to 20,000MW per annum by March 2012.

Pre-qualifying requirements for supercritical Boiler-Turbine-Generator havebeen reviewed by CEA and revisedadvisory given to utilities in order toencourage new entrants in manufacturingsector to enhance supplies and encourage


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competition. A major step has been thata number of new manufacturers havecame forward for setting upmanufacturing facilities for SteamGenerators and Turbine Generators. Theseinclude:

1. L&T-MHI2. Toshiba-JSW3. Alstom-Bharat Forge4. Ansaldo Caldie-Gammon5. BGR-Hitachi6. Dov7. Thermax-Babcock8. Cethar vessals-

Based on production schedules of BHEL &

various JVs, it is felt that country is likely

to have adequate manufacturing capacity

as far as main plant equipments are

concerned.

Enhancing Manufacturing Capacity of

BOP vendors

There were limited number of vendors forBOP in the country. In recent past, it hasbeen noted that some of the plants couldnot commissioned due to delay in Balanceof Plants, though works in main plantswere completed. To overcome theproblem, action has been taken tosensitize the industry to the needs ofwidening the vendor base for Balance ofPlants like Coal Handling Plant, Ash

Handling Plants, Water treatment plantetc. Industry has been impressed upon toenhance their manufacturing capacity aswell as encourage new entrepreneurs inthese areas. Qualifying requirements fornew vendors of BoPs have been relaxedto enable new vendors to qualify forbidding. Standardisation of BoP systemsand mandating a central organisation tomaintain a dynamic data base with regard

to BoP order is under consideration. NTPC

has signed an MOU with Bharat Forge Ltd.to promote a JV Company formanufacture of castings, forgings, fittingsand high pressure piping required by thePower Sector.

NPC and L&T have also proposed to set upa JV for manufacturing of forgings, whichbesides the nuclear plant requirementswill also cater to thermal power projects.

Construction agencies

The need to enhance the number of

construction agencies is also beingstressed upon. A NTPC / BHEL JV has beenfirmed to take up work related toEngineering, Procurement andConstruction (EPC) for power plants andother Infrastructure projects. This JV hasrecently obtained some orders for BOPs.The latest methods of civil constructionwith mechanical equipments andmanpower mobilisation needs to be

adopted.

Critical Materials

There does not appear to be shortage ofkey materials except CRGO steel, highergrade CRNGO & thick boiler steel plants.

Cold Rolled Grain Oriented (CRGO) steel ismost commonly used for manufacture of

transformer. There is worldwide shortageof CRGO steel and non availability of goodquality CRGO steel in India resulted indelay in supply of transformers. Toovercome such problems, efforts arebeing made towards timely availability ofCritical Key Inputs required for powersystem expansion. Measures are beinginitiated to develop vendors for criticalinputs like boiler quality plates, P91 piping,

CRGO sheet steel. Advanced planning has


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been suggested for materials to beimported. Development of manufacturingcapacities for castings & forgings forturbine/ generators is also suggested.

BHEL has been requested to take advanceprocurement action for critical equipmentlike forgings and castings which have along lead time, so as to reduce time takento commission any unit. Matter was takenup with Government of India to giveadvisory to BHEL for advanceprocurement of a critical forgings andcastings. Accordingly advisory has beengiven by Ministry of Finance to BHEL to

facilitate advance procurement action forcritical forgings/castings.

Manpower and training facilities in

Power Sector

There is shortage of skilled manpower inthe country. It was been estimated that anadditional about 1 million workmen,supervisors and engineers would be

required for Construction, Operation andMaintenance of power equipment during11th Plan. In particular, technicians ofspecified skills would be required in verylarge numbers. To overcome the aboveproblem, high priority is being accorded tohuman resource development andtraining of power sector personnel. A verycomprehensive and pragmatic approachhas been adopted to attract, utilize,

develop and conserve valuable humanresources. To bridge the gap betweensupply and demand, a scheme calledAdopt an ITI has been initiated with aview to train new technicians and toupgrade the skills of existing ones. As perthis scheme, ITIs are to be adopted bypower developers in the vicinity of theirprojects.

CEA has recently recommended toMinistry of Power to make changes inNational Electricity Policy, Tariff Policy andcompetitive Bidding Guidelines to include

the cost of skill development in andaround the project area in the project costof generation and transmission projects.CERC has also been requested by CEA toconsider the cost of human resourcedevelopment in and around project areaas a pass through in generation andtransmission tariff. It has been proposedthat the provision on this account shouldbe restricted to actual expenditure or a

pre-specified percentage of project costwhichever is lower.

IT based monitoring

The IT based monitoring is a system whichenables to receive all information aboutthe project to be monitored andprogrammes in real time, thereby helpingto highlight the critical issues, the cost

over runs and other aspects related to bereported at various levels ofmanagement.

It may be utilized to track the dailyprogress of ongoing power projects andexpedite the process of gettingclearances from various agencies andwould also be helpful in placing orders ofBOP/equipments on time. The system can

also alert the authority for appropriateaction if the project is not progressing asper schedule.

The IT based monitoring system throughuse of software which would integratethe master network with L1 and L2 levelnetworks to facilitate simultaneous onlineupdation from different geographicallocations. Summary dashboard


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information can also be accessed of all theprojects and programs in real-time,helping in determining which projects arein danger of delay/late completion andrunning over-budget. The system wouldalso help to:-

ensure online updation of actual datesof approval/release of each drawing byengineering deptt. in a manner thatcan be accessed by all concerned.

enable online monitoring of thosetransport/logistic activities which arecritical for timely commissioning of the

projects. Monitor Poor projects performance

and poor sequencing of events. Project delays, cost overruns visibility into scheduling and material

delivery Cost overruns, unknown implications

of material cost increases. Inefficient use of resources, incorrect

mix of skills, project delay.

All the projects were requested toimplement IT based monitoring foreffective project monitoring &implementation. However, only a fewprojects have implemented the same. Thisis to be required to be implemented in allthe projects.

Central Electricity Authority has

implemented Integrated ManagementSystem-I (IMS-I) for centralized collectionof data from various power generations,transmission and distribution entities inthe country through web based interface.CEA has already approved the inputformats and reports pertaining to IMS-Iand date is being obtained in the inputformats from respective organizations.

CEA is also going to implement IMS-II withthe following broad objectives:-

More intensive and comprehensive ITbased monitoring of execution ofpower projects.

To provide adequate redundancy inthe existing data centre to enhancereliability and availability of thesystem and to prepare a separatedisaster recovery data centre.

Since the number of projects likely tobe commissioned during 12th Plan will

be large, IT based monitoring wouldbe useful to monitor and generatereports pertaining to ongoingprojects.

Fuel Constraints

Some of the projects have beendelayed due to non-availability of

coal, gas and nuclear fuel.Konaseema (445MW) and

Gauthami (464 MW) in A.P. whichwere ready for commissioningwere delayed due to non-availability of gas. These projectshave since been allocated gas fromKG D6 basin and beencommissioned during 2009-10.RAPP Unit-5 & 6, 220 MW each

have already been commissioned,as imported nuclear fuel is nowavailable for these units.

Contractual disputes

A number of projects had awarded fixedprice contracts during the 10th Plan periodwhich affected adversely due tounexpected increase in price of inputs.CEA advised all the utilities not to award

fixed price contracts in future where the


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implementation period is longer. A modelcontract document with appropriate pricecalculation formula was circulated for theguidance of the utilities.

During the one-day international Conclaveon Contract Management forAccelerated Development of Hydropower

Projects on 16th November, 2007 at NewDelhi organized by the Ministry of Powerand Central Electricity Authority, it wasconcluded that there are deficiencies inthe existing contract documents andmanagement systems/practices, leading

to contractual disputes affecting thedevelopment of the hydropower projects.A need was felt to prepare equitabledocuments as guidelines for adoption bystakeholders.

In pursuance of the same, a Task Forcewas constituted by Ministry of Power,Govt. of India under the Chairmanship ofChairperson, CEA & comprising members

from Utilities, IPPs/Developers,consultants. The Construction IndustryDevelopment Council (CIDC) was engagedfor the purpose.

The draft document has been finalizedand sent to MoP for acceptance. Keyelements / concepts introduced inStandard Bidding Document(SBD) inter-alia include the following:

i. Risk Register: It is seen that delays inmost of the hydro projects occur onaccount of contractual issuesespecially on account of risk sharingarising out of unforeseen situations.A proforma for risk registerincorporating risk sharing/allocation ofdifferent types of risks generallyencountered in hydro projects has

been incorporated. It is expected thatadoption of the proforma wouldreduce contractual disputes betweenthe employer and the contractors to a

large extent.

ii. Institutional Arbitration Mechanism:To ensure speedy and efficient disputeredressal, Institutional DisputeResolution Mechanism has beenproposed which is in line withemerging global best practices.Globally the increased emphasis on fairand timely determination of

compensation events and claims hastilted the scales in favour ofInstitutional Arbitration Mechanismsthat ensures a more accountable andtransparent process for timelyresolution of disputes.

iii. Other issues suitably incorporated /

modified inter-alia include

Claims towards idling of resources,

Cost control, Procedures for claims, Price adjustment formulae, Incentive bonus, Payment upon termination /

foreclosure of contract

iv. Review committee provision Constitution of a review committee hasbeen proposed for periodic revision of the

SBD and other documents for mid-coursecorrection.

The Standard Bidding Document aftergetting legal vetting has been finalizedand sent to MoP.

Standardization: Standardspecification for steam generator andTurbine generator for 500MW and


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above with sub critical technologywere prepared by CEA with a view toreduce the time in design &engineering and implementation ofthermal projects. Standardspecifications of super critical units

and balance of plants are also underpreparation.

---++---


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Sl.No. Plant Name State Agency StatusFuel

Type

Capacity

(MW)

Capacity

as per

78,700MW

Capacity

as per

62,374MW

Capacity

as per

52,063MW

42 Simhadri-Ext U-4 AP NTP U Coal 500 500 500

43 Bongaigaon TPP U 1-3 Assam NTP U Coal 750 750 50044 Lohari Nagpala HEP Ut.Khand NTP U Hydro 600 60045 Tapovan Vishnugarh HEP Ut.Khand U Hydro 520 52046 Koldam HEP HP U Hydro 800 800

47 Mauda TPP U1,2 Maha U Coal 1000 1000

48 Barh I U 1,2,3 Bihar U Coal 1980 1980

49 Barh II U1 Bihar U Coal 660 660

50 Nabinagar JV U-1,2,3 Bihar U Coal 750 750

51 Vallur (Ennore) JV U1,2 TN U Coal 1000 1000 1000

52 Tripura Gas ILFSJV Tripura U Gas/LNG 726 750

53 Rampur HEP HP U Hydro 412 41254 Koteshwar U 1,2 HEP Ut.Khand Comnd Hydro 200 200 200 20055 Koteshwar U3-4 HEP Ut.Khand U Hydro 200 200 200 200

Sub Total (Central Sector) 35824 21222 16175State Sector

1 Jurala Priya U 1-6 AP Comnd Hydro 234 234 234 234

2 Rayalseema U4,5 AP Comnd Coal 420 420 420 420

3 Vijaywada TPP St-IV, U1 AP Comnd Coal 500 500 500 500

4 Kakatiya TPP AP Comnd Coal 500 500 500 500

5 Kothagudem St-VI AP Comnd Coal 500 500 500 500

6 Nagarjuna Sagar TR AP U Hydro 50 50 507 Lower Jurala U1-6 HEP AP U Hydro 240 2408 Pulichintala HEP AP U Hydro 120 1209 Kakatiya Ext U1 AP U Coal 500 500

10 Lakwa Wh Assam U Gas/LNG 37.2 37.2 37.2

11 Korba East Ext U2 Chattis Comnd Coal 250 250 250 250

12 Marwah TPP U 1,2 Chattis U Coal 1000 100013 Korba West Ext PH III Chatt is U Coal 500 500

14 Pragati-III (Bawana) GT-1,2 Delhi Comnd Gas/LNG 500 500 500 500

15Pragati-III (Bawana) GT-3,4

& St-1,2Delhi UC Gas/LNG 1000 1000 1000 500

16 Kutch Lign TP Gujarat Comnd Lignite 75 75 75 75

17 Dhuvran St Gujarat Comnd Gas/LNG 40 40 40 40

18 Utran CCPP-GT+ST Gujarat Comnd Gas/LNG 374 374 374 374

19 Surat Lignite Ext U3,4 Gujarat Comnd Lignite 250 250 250 250

20 Ukai Ext U6 Gujarat U Coal 490 490 490

21 GSEG Hazira Ext Gujarat U Gas/LNG 351 351 351 351

22 Pipavav JV Ccgt Gujarat U Gas/LNG 702 702 702

23 Sikka TPP Ext Gujarat U Coal 500 500

24 Yamuna Nagar U1,2 Haryana Comnd Coal 600 600 600 600

25Rajiv Gandhi TPS(Hissar)

U1,2Haryana Comnd Coal 1200 1200 1200 1200

26 Uhl - III HEP HP HPJVVNL UC Hydro 100 10027 Sawara Kuddu HEP HP PV UC Hydro 110 11028 Baglihar-I U1,2,3 HEP J&K JKPD Comnd Hydro 450 450 450 45029 Varahi Ext U1,2 HEP Karntk KPC Comnd Hydro 230 230 230 23030 Bellary TPP U 1 Karntk KPC Comnd Coal 500 500 500 500

31 Bellary TPP U 2 Karntk KPC UC Coal 500 500 500 500

32 Raichur U 8 Karntk KPC Comnd Coal 250 250 250 250

33 Kutiyadi Ext U1,2 HEP Kerala KSEB Comnd Hydro 100 100 100 10034 Pallivasal HEP Kerala KSEB UC Hydro 60 6035 Ghatghar Pss U1,2 Maha GOMID Comnd Hydro 250 250 250 250

36 Paras Ext U1,2 Maha MSPGCL Comnd Coal 500 500 500 500


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Sl.No. Plant Name State Agency StatusFuelType

Capacity(MW)

Capacity

as per78,700MW

Capacity

as per62,374MW

Capacity

as per52,063MW

37 New Parli Ext U-2 Maha MSPGCL Comnd Coal 250 250 250 250

38 Khaper Kheda Ext Maha MSPGCL Comnd Coal 500 500 500 50039 Bhusawal TPP U4,5 Maha MSPGCL U Coal 1000 1000 1000 1000

40 Myntdu St-I HEP Meghal MESEB U Hydro 84 84 84 8441 Myntdu St-I Addl Unit Meghal MESEB U Hydro 42 42 4242 New Umtru HEP Meghal MESEB U Hydro 40 4043 Birsinghpur Ext MP MPPGC Comnd Coal 500 500 500 500

44 Amarkantak U-5 MP MPGENCO Comnd Coal 210 210 210 210

45 Malwa TPP U1,2 MP MPGENCO U Coal 1000 1000

46 Satpura Ext U-1,2 MP MPPGC U Coal 500 500

47 Balimela HEP St-II U7,8 Orissa OHP Comnd Hydro 150 150 150 150

48 GhTPP-II U-3,4 Punjab PSEB Comnd Coal 500 500 500 500

49 Giral Lignite U-2 Rajas RRVUN Comnd Lignite 125 125 125 125

50 Chhabra TPSU-1,2 Rajas RRVUN Comnd Coal 500 500 500 500

51 Kota TPP U7 Rajas RRVUN Comnd Coal 195 195 195 19552 Suratgarh Ext U6 Rajas RRVUN Comnd Coal 250 250 250 25053 Dholpur GT2+ST Rajas RRVUNL Comnd Gas/LNG 220 220 220 220

54 Kalisindh TPS U1 Rajas RRVUNL UC Coal 600 500

55 Valuthur Ext TN TNEB Comnd Gas/LNG 92.2 92.2 92.2 92.2

56 Bhawani Barrage II & III TN TNEB UC Hydro 60 60 6057 Mettur Ext U1 TN TNEB UC Coal 600 500 60058 North Chennai Ext U1,2 TN TNEB UC Coal 1200 600 1200

59 Baramura Gt Tri Comnd Gas/LNG 21 21

60 Maneri Bhali HEP Ut.Khand UJVNL Comnd Hydro 304 304 304 30461 Parichha Ext U-5,6 Up UPRVUNL UC Coal 500 500 500

62 Harduaganj Ext U-8 Up UPRVUNL Comnd Coal 250 250 250 250

63 Harduaganj Ext U-9 Up UPRVUNL UC Coal 250 250 250 25064 Anpara-D U1,2 Up UPRVUNL UC Coal 1000 1000

65 Purlia Pss WB WBSEB Comnd Hydro 900 900 900 90066 Sagardighi U 1,2 WB WBPDCL Comnd Coal 600 600 600 600

67 Santaldih U5 WB WBPDCL Comnd Coal 250 250 250 25068 Santaldih Ext-U 6 WB WBPDCL Comnd Coal 250 250 250 250

69 Bakreshwar U 4,5 WB WBPDCL Comnd Coal 420 420 420 42070 Durgapur Ext U 7 WB DPL Comnd Coal 300 300 300 300

Sub Total (State Sector) 26783 21355 17237

Private Sector

1 Konaseema Gt+St APKonaseema

PowerComnd Gas/LNG 445 445 445 445

2 Gautami APGautami

PowerComnd Gas/LNG 464 464 464 464

3 Kondapalli CCPP Ph-II Gt+St AP LANCO Comnd Gas/LNG 366 366 366

4Raigarh TPP Ph-I, U-1, 2; Ph II U 3,4

Chattis Jindal Power Comnd Coal 1000 1000 1000 1000

5 Lanco Amarkantak U1,2 Chattis LANCO Comnd Coal 600 600 600 600

6 Rithala CCPP (Gt1+Gt2+St) Delhi NDP Comnd Gas/LNG 108.0 108.0 71.57 Sugen Torrent Block I, II & III Gujarat Torrent Comnd Gas/LNG 1147.5 1128 1147.5 1147.5

8 Mundra TPP Ph-I, U 1-4 Gujarat Adani Power Comnd Coal 1320 1320 1320 1320

9 Mundra TPP Ph-II U1,2 Gujarat Adani Power Comnd Coal 1320 1320 1320

10 Mundra TPP Ph-III U-1 Gujarat Adani Power U Coal 660 660

11 Ultra Mega Mundra U1 Gujarat Tata Power U Coal 800 800 800

12 Allain Duhangan U1,2 HP Adhpl Comnd Hydro 192 192 192 19213 Karcham Wangtoo U1-4 HP Jpkhcl Comnd Hydro 1000 1000 1000 100014 Malana HEP II U1,2 HP

Evrest

PowerComnd

Hydro100 100 100 100

15 Budhil HEP HP LANCO U Hydro 70 70 70 70


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Sl.No. Plant Name State Agency StatusFuel

Type

Capacity

(MW)

Capacity

as per

78,700MW

Capacity

as per

62,374MW

Capacity

as per

52,063MW

16 Sorang HEP HP

Himachal

SorangPower

UC

Hydro100 100

17 Maithan Rbc JV U1* Jharknd IPP Comnd Coal 525 525 525 525

18 Maithan Rbc JV U2* Jharknd IPP UC Coal 525 525 525 525

19 Torangallu U1,2 Karntk JSW Energy Comnd Coal 600 600 600 600

20Udupi TPP (LANCONagarjuna) U1,2

Karntk NPCL Comnd Coal 1200 1015 1015 1200

21 Trombay TP Maha Tata Power Comnd Coal 250 250 250 250

22 JSW Energy, RaTNagiri U1-3 Maha JSW Comnd Coal 900 900 900 900

23 JSW Energy, RaTNagiri U4 Maha JSW UC Coal 300 300 300 300

24 TPSAt Warora U1,2,3,4 MahaWardhaPowerco

Comnd Coal 540 540

25 Tiroda TPP Ph-I U1 Maha Adani Power UC Coal 660 660 660

26 Maheshwar 1-10 MP SMHPCL UC Hydro 400 400 400

27 Sterl ite TPP U 2,1 OrissaSterlite

EnergyComnd Coal 1200 600 1200 1200

28 Sterl ite TPP U3 OrissaSterliteEnergy

Comnd Coal 600 600

29 Jallipa Lignite U 1,2 RajasRaj WestPower

Comnd Lignite 270 270 270 270

30 Jall ipa Lignite U 3-8 RajasRaj WestPower

UC Lignite 810 810 810 135

31 Teesta III Sikkim Teesta Urja UC Hydro 1200 1200 60032 Chujachen Sikkim GATI UC Hydro 99 99 9933 Srinagar Ut.Khand GVK UC Hydro 330 33034 Rosa St-I U1,2 UP

Reliance

Power

Comnd Coal 600 600 600 600

35 Anpara-CU1,2 UP LANCO UC Coal 1200 1000 1200 1200

36 Budge-Budge Ext WB CES Comnd Coal 250 250 250 250

Sub Total (Private Sector) 16093 19797 18651

Total (11th Plan) 78700 62374 52063

Note - UC: Under Construction

---+++---


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Demand Projections for Electricity Chapter 3: Page | 37

Chapter 3

DEMAND PROJECTIONS FOR ELECTRICITY

3.0BACKGROUNDDemand assessment is an essentialprerequisite for planning of generationcapacity addition required to meet thefuture power requirement of various

sectors of our economy. The type andlocation of projects planned is largelydependent on the magnitude, spatialdistribution as well as the variation ofdemand during the day, seasons and on ayearly basis. Therefore, reliable planningfor capacity addition for future is largelydependent on an accurate assessment ofthe future demand.

The National Electricity Policy alsostipulates that CEA, while formulating theNational Electricity Plan, would includethe Short-term and the Long Termdemand forecast for different Regions.

3.1DEMAND ASSESSMENT BY CENTRALELECTRICITY AUTHORITY ELECTRIC

POWER SURVEY (EPS REPORTS)

TheElectricity Power Survey Committee isconstituted by CEA, with widerepresentation from the Stake-holders inthe Power Sector, to forecast the demandfor electricity both in terms of peakelectric load and electrical energyrequirement. CEA has been regularlybringing out the Electric Power SurveyReports. The last Report by thisCommittee is the 17th EPS which wasreleased in March 2007. This Report

forecasted year-wise electricity demandfor each State, Union Territory, Regionand All India in detail up to the end of 11thFive Year Plan i.e. 2011-12 and project theperspective electricity demand for theterminal years of 12th & 13th Plans i.e. year

2016-17 and year 2021-22 for the Utilitysystems. The 18th EPS Committee wasconstituted in February 2010 and its draftReport is under finalisation. The impact ofDSM and Energy Conservation Measuresduring the 12th and 13th Plans on thedemand of the country has been suitablytaken into account while finalizing the 18thEPS demand.

The 18th

EPS draft report which has beenbrought out now like encompassesvarious features for fulfilling the Aims andObjectives of the National/ State Policiesframed by the Government(s). Dueconsideration has been given whileformulating the electricity demandforecasts to the promotion of highefficiency and DSM measures in theAgriculture, Industrial, Commercial

sectors as well as in domesticestablishments. Future projections of theEPS have also been worked out based onthe T & D loss reduction targets assessedin consultation with various States/UTs.The Long Term Forecast is based onreducing T & D losses to 23.2%, 18.9% and15.4% by 2011-12, 2016-17 and 2021-22respectively.


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Demand Projections for Electricity Chapter 3: Page | 38

3.2DEMAND SCENARIOSA number of Demand Scenarios have beenworked out and a choice is required to be

made as to which of these demands is tobe adopted for carrying out Planningstudies for estimating the most accurateGeneration Capacity addition Programmefor the 12th and 13th Plans. The variouspossible Demand Scenarios analysed inthis Chapter are as follows:

Scenario:1

Actual demand up to 2009-10 & then

applying Actual Cumulative GrowthRate (CAGR) of past few years in 12thplan & EPS growth rate in 13th plan.

Scenario:2

Actual Demand up to 2009-10 with 9%GDP Growth Rate & 0.8 Elasticityduring 12th & 13th Plans

Scenario:3

Actual Demand up to 2009-10 with 9%GDP Growth Rate & 0.9 Elasticityduring 12th Plan and 0.8 Elasticity

during 13th Plan.Scenario:4

Actual Demand up to 2009-10 with 9%GDP Growth Rate & 0.95 Elasticityduring 12th & 13th Plans.

Scenario:5

Actual Demand up to 2009-10 with 9%GDP Growth Rate & 1.0 Elasticity

during 12th Plan and 0.9 Elasticityduring 13th Plan.

Scenario:6

18th EPS Demand Projections

Details of Year-wise Energy Requirementprojections by 12th & 13th Plan end arefurnished in Table 3.1 & 3.2 below:

TABLE 3.1SCENARIOS OF ENERGY REQUIREMENT PROJECTIONS FOR 12th PLAN

Sc.-1 GR Sc.-2 GR Sc.-3 GR Sc.-4 GR Sc.-5 GR Sc-6

Year Actual ER

(upto

2009-10)

with

actual

CAGR

% Actual ER

(upto 2009-

10) & 9%

G