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Suggested hashtag for Twitter users: #LSEworks
Neighbours, Peers and Educational AchievementLSE Works: Spatial Economics Research Centre public lecture
Professor Stephen GibbonsProfessor of Economic Geography Director, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE
Dr Tim LeunigChief Analyst and Chief Scientific Adviser Department for Education
Professor Ruth LuptonProfessor of Education University of Manchester
Professor Julia BlackChair, LSE
Neighbours, peers and children’s education:Quantitative evidence from the Spatial Economics Research Centre
Steve Gibbons
January 2015
Outline of this talk
Is there a ‘transformative’ role for neighbours and peers – do they really matter for children’s education outcomes?
Overview of recent quantitative empirical work on England from SERC researchers
1. ‘Neighbourhood effects’: Who your neighbours are 2. ‘Peer effects’: The ability of your child’s school-mates 3. ‘Mobility’: How fast neighbours and peers come and go 4. Comparisons with other interventions 5. Conclusions and policy implications
1
‘Neighbourhood effects’: Who your neighbours are
?
?
Does it matter which neighbourhood?
2
0 .1 5
0 .2
0 .2 5
0 .3
0 .3 5
0 .4
0 .4 5
0 .5
0 .5 5
0 0 .0 5 0 .1 0 .1 5 0 .2 0 .2 5
A g e 1 3 W a rd , p ro p o rtio n w ith A L e ve ls & h ig h e r
A L
evel
s &
hig
her a
t age
33
Older evidence
Association between neighbourhood quals. (1970s) and child’s adult attainment (1990s), Gibbons (2002)
1971, age -13 ward, proportion of adults with A Levels +
Pro
babi
lity
of A
Lev
els
+ at
age
33
3
Adjust for family background
Smaller effects: ‘Sorting’ matters - higher educated families choose higher educated neighbourhoods
0 .1 5
0 .2
0 .2 5
0 .3
0 .3 5
0 .4
0 .4 5
0 .5
0 .5 5
0 0 .0 5 0 .1 0 .1 5 0 .2 0 .2 5
A g e 1 3 W a rd , p ro p o rtio n w ith A L e ve ls & h ig h e r
A L
evel
s an
d hi
gher
at a
ge 3
3
1971, age -13 ward, proportion of adults with A Levels +
Pro
babi
lity
of A
Lev
els
+ at
age
33
4
0
0 .0 5
0 .1
0 .1 5
0 .2
0 .2 5
0 .3
0 .3 5
0 .4
0 0 .0 5 0 .1 0 .1 5 0 .2
A g e 1 3 W a rd , p ro p o r tio n w ith A L e v e ls & h ig h e r
A L
evel
s an
d hi
gher
at a
ge 3
3
Social tenants in the 1970s
Arguably, social tenants had less choice over housing location: less ‘sorting’
1971, age -13 ward, proportion of adults with A Levels +
Pro
babi
lity
of A
Lev
els
+ at
age
33
5
Parent’s education versus neighbours
Parent’s education matters way more than neighbours’ education in 1970s
6
More recent evidence on neighbours
Ideally we need an experiment e.g. Moving to Opportunity Programme in US, which finds no
systematic impacts on substantive outcomes
No explicit experiments in Britain Alternative research designs using ‘random’ sources of variation
in neighbourhood quality Big administrative data on England– the National Pupil
Database
7
KS1, age 6‐7 KS2, age 8‐11 KS3, age 12‐14 KS4, 15‐16
Primary school Secondary school
KS1 test
KS2 test
KS3 test
GCSEs
Timing of National Curriculum tests
Neighbours change between ks2 and ks3
8
Neighbourhood at ks3Neighbourhood at ks2
?
Effects of changing neighbours on stayers
9
Neighbourhood at ks2Neighbourhood at ks3
?
Effects of changing neighbours on stayers
10
Effect of neighbour changes on own ks3
8.79
0.05 0.00 0.02
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
ks3,unadjusted
ks3-ks2 value-added
Same school Same schooland neighb
ks1FSMSENMale
Neighbours change from average to top 10% ks1
Neighbours change from 25% to zero FSM
Neighbours change from 20% to zero SEN
Neighbours change from 50% to 70% boys
11
Does moving into social housing matter?
Compare KS3 for movers into social housing, with movers into non-social housing, before and after Key Stage 3 tests
Pupils move to social/ non-social housing between ks2 and ks3
Pupils move to social/non-social housing after ks3
KS1, age 6‐7 KS2, age 8‐11 KS3, age 12‐14 KS4, 15‐16
Primary school Secondary school
KS1 test
KS2 test
KS3 test
GCSEs
12
Move after ks3 33.07 45.42 -12.35
Social n’hood Non-social n’hood Difference
Move before ks3 34.20 45.71 -12.51
Evidence from movers into social housing
Effects of moving to social housing neighbourhoods and non-social housing neighbourhoods on KS3 scores (in percentiles)
‘Dif-in-dif ’
-0.16
13
‘Peer effects’: The ability of your child’s school mates
Pupils move from primary to secondary school – change of peer group
KS1, age 6‐7 KS2, age 8‐11 KS3, age 12‐14 KS4, 15‐16
Primary school Secondary school
KS1 test
KS2 test
KS3 test
GCSEs
New peer groups at secondary school
14
11.63
3.94
0.85 0.910.38
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
ks3,unadjusted
ks3-ks2value added
same schoolpair
same schoolpair +
controls
sameindividual,differentsubjects
Effect of peer group ks2 on own ks3
Secondary school peers: average compared to top 10%
Secondary school peer group: fewer poor performing peers
15
‘Mobility’: How fast neighbours and peers come and go
People move, neighbourhood stays the same
Neighbourhood at ks3
?
Neighbourhood at ks2
16
Effect of neighbour mobility, ks2 to ks3
2.23
0.63
0.13 0.060.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
ks3,unadjusted
ks3-ks2 value-added
same school same school +neighb
Neighbourhood change from 16% turnover per year to zero
17
Comparisons with other inputs
Comparison with other inputs
Effects of various education related inputs (0-100 scale)
0.02 0.060.91
0.07 0.36
5.63
7.03
0123456789
18
Conclusion and policy implications
Neighbourhood composition irrelevant for a child’s education Turnover seems to matter more, in neighbourhoods and
schools Disruption in teaching and breaking of social ties potentially important
– theory rather than evidence
School peer groups moderately important, though account for only 0.04% of the variance in pupil achievement
No role for engineering neighbourhood mixing to address education performance or inequality E.g. mixed communities planning
We should be more much concerned about school resources and teacher quality
19
Works by SERC researchers referred to Gibbons, S. (2002) Neighbourhood Effects on Educational Achievement: Evidence from the
Census and National Child Development Study, Centre for Economics of Education DP18 Cheshire, P., S. Gibbons and I. Gordon (2008) Policies for 'mixed communities': A critical
evaluation, Spatial Economics Research Centre, Policy Paper 2 Gibbons, S. and S. Telhaj, (2011), Pupil mobility and school disruption, Journal of Public
Economics Gibbons, S., S. McNally and M. Viarengo (2011), Does Additional Spending Help Urban
Schools? An Evaluation Using Boundary Discontinuities, SERC DP0090 Lavy, V., O.Silva, F. Weinhardt (2012), The Good the Bad and the Average: Evidence on
Ability Peer Effects in Schools, Journal of Labor Economics Gibbons, S., O. Silva and F. Weinhardt (2013), Everybody Needs Good Neighbours?,
Economic Journal (revised version of SERC DP0063 Weinhardt, F. (2014) Social Housing, Neighborhood Quality and Student Performance, Journal
of Urban Economics (revised version of SERC DP 0044) Gibbons, S. and S. Telhaj, (2014) Peer Effects: Evidence from Secondary School Transition in
England, forthcoming Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (revised version of SERC DP0001
Gibbons, S., O.Silva and F. Weinhardt (2014) Neighbourhood Turnover and Teenage Attainment, SERCDP0163 20
Suggested hashtag for Twitter users: #LSEworks
Neighbours, Peers and Educational AchievementLSE Works: Spatial Economics Research Centre public lecture
Professor Stephen GibbonsProfessor of Economic Geography Director, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE
Dr Tim LeunigChief Analyst and Chief Scientific Adviser Department for Education
Professor Ruth LuptonProfessor of Education University of Manchester
Professor Julia BlackChair, LSE