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Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties in coastal zones with scarce freshwater resources

Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties

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Page 1: Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties

Negotiating uncertainties

Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino

Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise

Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties in coastal zones

with scarce freshwater resources

Page 2: Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties

Contents

Objective PhD research Theories Uncertainty Set up SLR Experiment Results SLR Experiment Further steps… Discussion

Page 3: Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties

Objective PhD-research

To map levels of (dis)agreement of (un)certainties regarding the freshwater availability for land use by Qualitatively (analysis of cultural concepts), and Quantitatively, with statistical analysis

Practical guidelines for negotiating (un)certainties in regional science-policy interfaces related to climate proofing Southwest Delta of the Netherlands To be identified

Page 4: Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties

Uncertainty philosophies in climate science

Imprecise

Information

Precise

Information

Objective perspective Subjective perspectiveEarth

system

Human

dimension

causality

choice

observations

models

Scenario’s

Swart e.a., 2008

Likelihood scaleConfidence scaleLevel of agreement & evidence

Explanatory factors

Page 5: Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties

Set up Sea Level Rise Experiment (questionaire) What will be the sea level rise in

2030/2100/2200? What is the body length of Eddy Moors? (cm) What is the average body length of the ESS

group? What is your own body length? (cm)

Average (cm) Minimum (cm) Maximum (cm) Chance that you are wrong (%) Explain your (expert) judgment

Page 6: Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties

Sea level rise 2030

ID Name Conf avg 2030 min 2030 max 2030 Expect.value

Std

1 Erik van Slobbe 60% 20 5 60 28.3 11.6

2 Aad Sedee 80% 10 5 20 11.7 3.1

3 Eddy Moors 80% 20 10 40 23.3 6.2

4 Arnold van Vliet 50% 10 5 15 10.0 2.0

5 Hasse Goosen 75% 15 10 20 15.0 2.0

6 Herbert ter Maat 75% 30 20 50 33.3 6.2

7 Rob Swart 90% 10 4 15 9.7 2.2

8 Fokke 40% 10 2 20 10.7 3.7

9 Catharien 30% 50 20 70 46.7 10.3

10 Judith 40% 15 10 30 18.3 4.2

11 Rik Leemans 100% 45 12 600 219.0 134.9

12 Pavel 50% 10 5 15 10.0 2.0

13 Saskia - 15 1 30 15.3 5.9

Page 7: Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties

Sealevel rise experiment: expert judgment

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97

Sea level rise 2030(cm)

Pro

bab

ility

den

sity

Erik

AadEddyArnold

Hasse

HerbertRob

Catharien

JudithFokke

Rik

Pavel

Saskia

Page 8: Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties

Summed asym. PDF’s for 2030 (2 approaches)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7Summed asym.triangular probability density functions

PMF1

PMF2

PMF3

hist

ModelModel-first mode

Triangulars

Min. Entropy approach

Pmf1 = 13.7 cm, 51.5%

Pmf2 = 29.4 cm, 23.6%

Pmf3 = 35 cm, 11.8%

Rik = 206, 6.7%

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5Summed probability density functions

PMF1

PMF2

PMF3

hist

KDEModel

Model-first mode

Normal Distr. per respondent

Min. Entropy approach

Pmf1 = 13.7 cm, 71%

Pmf2 = 42 cm, 17%

Pmf3 = 26 cm, 10%

no Rik

Arithmic mean = 20 cm ± 13 cm

Page 9: Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties

Overlap matrix sealevel rise 2030 Graphical representation of overlap matrix

2

4

7

8

12

5

10

13

1

3

6

11

9

2

4

7

8

12

5

10

13

1

3

6

11

9

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.99 Catharien

11 Rik Leemans

6 Herbert ter Maat

3 Eddy Moors

1 Erik van Slobbe

13 Saskia Werners

10 Judith Klostermann

5 Hasse Goosen

12 Pavel Kabat

8 Fokke de Jong

7 Rob Swart

4 Arnold van Vliet

2 Aad Sedee

Aa

d

Arn

old

Ro

b

Fo

kke

Pa

vel

Hass

e

Jud

ith

Sa

skia

Eri

k

Ed

dy

He

rbert

Rik

Ca

thari

en

Page 10: Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties

Comparison of all expert judgmentsExpert judgment

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Estimation 2030 Estimation 2100 Estimation 2200 Eddy ESS-CC

cm

Arith mean

Min entropy

Max entropy

Delta Commissie

KNMI 06

max

min

reality

Page 11: Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties

Comparison body lengths estimations

0 50 100 150 200 2500

1

2

3

4

5

6Summed asym.triangular probability density functions

PMF1

PMF2

PMF3

hist

ModelModel-first mode

Rik, 133cm, 6%

183cm, 25%

183cm, 60%

186cm

Eddy Judgment

130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 2100

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4Summed asym.triangular probability density functions

PMF1

PMF2

PMF3

hist

ModelModel-first mode

ESS-CC Judgment

Minent

Minent

176cm, 56%

177cm, 22%

177cm, 9%

180cm

Eddies body length is easier to estimate than group length

Page 12: Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties

Further steps:

What is the (average) annual minimum amount of rainfall needed (m3 m-2 yr -1) to maintain freshwater supply for sector A,B in region Y under climate change?

Compare (expert) judgment regarding freshwater supply from natural resources in region Y under climate change for different stakeholder/expert groups

Comparison of regions Method is also applicable to: (beyond scope PhD)

map (un(certainties) in the process of valuation of ecosystem services

Other ecosystem services

Page 13: Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties

Thank youJeroen Veraart