World Climate:Negotiating a Global Climate Agreement

Agenda1. Introduction and schedule

2. Assign Roles

3. The World Climate

Negotiation

4. Debrief and your feedback

Climate Change: Carbon

Cycle

3

Climate Change: Greenhouse

Gases

4

Emissions exceed IPCC Worst-case Scenario:

CO

2E

mis

sio

ns f

rom

Fo

ssil

Fu

els

(GtC

/year)

Actual CO2 Emissions vs. IPCC Assumptions

US Global Change Research Program: downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf

2008-2009 data: Manning et al. (2010), Nature Geoscience. Vol. 3; June, 376-377. 2010:

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/perlim_2009_2010_estimates.html

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

6

7

8

9

IPCC Emissions

Scenarios

IPCC

Worst

Case

(A1FI)

Actual Emissions

2010:

9.14

GtC

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Atmospheric CO2

2011: 392 ppm

40% above

pre-industrial

Ramifications of

Increased Atmospheric CO2 Rising atmospheric temperatures

Rising sea levels (more H2O, warm H2O expands

Shoreline destabilization

More extreme weather patterns/fluctuations

Feedback loops – i.e sea ice, permafrost

Ocean acidification and current changes

Biological changes – ranges, timing

7

What can we do?? Mitigation: efforts to reduce and/or prevent Greenhouse

Gas Emissions

Adaptation: Adjustments that society/environment

makes to limit negative effects of climate change

UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

COP: Conference of the Parties

8

What is the UNFCCC/COP?

9

UNFCCC Conference of the Parties – the decision making body of the Convention

COP Conference – Annual, formal meeting of the Convention to assess progress and make decisions

What is a World Climate

Simulation?

https:/www.climateinteractive.org/world-climate-project/

10

Purpose of World Climate Simulation

To improve understanding of important climate dynamics

To help ensure that climate policy is informed by vetted, peer-reviewed science

Process Introduce yourselves to members of your delegation

Read Briefing Memo for your nation or bloc

15 minutes—Speed Research! Look up participating countries, involvement in climate change mitigation, role in global policy

Are these terms familiar? 2 Degrees

350.org/350 ppm

14

0 °C 1.0 °C 2.0 °C 3.0 °C 4.0 °C 5.0 °C

1.8 °F 3.6 °F 5.4 °F 7.2 °F 9.0 °F0 °FIP

CC

AR

4

1.8 °F 3.6 °F 5.4 °F 7.2 °F 9.0 °F0 °F

0 °C 1.0 °C 2.0 °C 3.0 °C 4.0 °C 5.0 °C

3.5 °C

6.3 ° F

5.3 °C

9.5 °F7.4 °C

13.3 °F

MIT Joint Program

on Global Change

(Sokolov et al. 2009,

Journal of Climate)

Projected mean temp

increase by 2100

under BAU

10.8 °F

6.0 °C

Welcome Delegates

UN Climate Summit

Our Global Task

Manage the Unavoidable

and

Avoid the Unmanageable

Consider this:

Achieve emissions reduction commitments to stabilize GHG levels by 2100 at a level that limits global warming to no more than 2 °C above preindustrial levels.

Agree on a deal to share costs of mitigation and adaptation fund to aid less developed nations.

Process: Part II

Begin to formulate your negotiating strategy What are your vital interests? What is politically

feasible in your nation/bloc?

What do you need from the other nations/blocs? What can you offer them?

20

Task 1: Emissions Each delegation will set its own fossil fuel emissions

targets. You will set:

– In what year will GHG emissions in your bloc stop

growing (if any)?

– In what year (if desired), will your GHG emissions

begin to fall?

– If emissions will fall, at what rate (% per year)?

REDD policies:

Deforestation: 0 – 1 scale. 1 continues BAU deforestation path, 0

gradually eliminates deforestation over coming decades.

Afforestation: 0 – 1 scale. 0 = no new area set aside for afforestation;

1 = maximum feasible afforestation area.

Task 2: Burden Sharing

We are creating the “UN Global Fund for Mitigation and Adaptation” for

Disaster relief

Food and water

Immigration and refugees

Mitigation — Investing in any necessary non-cost-saving mitigation to achieve Task 1 goals

Total cost is $100 Billion per year (ramping up to that level by 2020)

How much will you contribute?

How much should others contribute?

Terms?

Proposal Form

Region: ____________

CO2 Emissions growth stop year: _______

CO2 Emissions decline start year: _______

Fractional rate of decline (%/year): ______

REDD+ (Reduction in Emissions from Deforestation and land Degradation)_______

India, Other Developed, Other Developing only:(1 = no reduction from BAU; 0 = max reduction)

Afforestation (net new forest area) _______ All nations/regions: (0 = no new afforestation area; 1 = maximum feasible)

Your region’s contribution to fund for mitigation and adaptation ($B/year): _______

After you prepare your proposal

2 minute plenary presentation by

representative of each delegation

describing their emissions proposal,

their Fund commitment and why.

Designate a representative to give

your Bloc’s speech.

Proposal Summary

Emissions

Growth

Stop Year

Emissions

Reduction

Start Year

Annual

Emissions

Reduction(%/year)

REDD

(1 = BAU;

0 = zero

emissions)

New

Afforestation

Area

(0-1 [max

feasible])

Contribution

to (or Draw

on) Fund

($ Billion/yr)

Developed

Countries NA

Developing

Countries

Less

Developed

Example 2075 2085 1.0%/year 0.8 0.1 $10 B/yr

Debrief Round 1

Lobbying Session Take 15 minutes outside the plenary hall – mingling

among groups

Discuss ways to meet needs/fulfill global obligations

30

Round 2

Debrief Round 2

Policymaker Mental Models

“Currently, in the UNFCCC negotiation

process, the concrete environmental

consequences of the various positions

are not clear to all of us.

There is a dangerous void of

understanding of the short and long

term impacts of the espoused

…unwillingness to act on behalf of the

Parties.”

– Christiana Figueres, UNFCCC negotiator

for Costa Rica, Sept 2008

(Named to lead UNFCCC, May 2010)

Impact of 1 Meter SLR

1 Meter

Head of State Meeting, Copenhagen, Dec

2009

“Let us suppose 100 percent reduction,

that is, no CO2 in the developed countries

anymore. Even then, with the [target of]

two degrees, you have to reduce carbon

emissions in the developing countries.

That is the truth.”

— Chancellor Angela Merkel.

“People tend to forget where it is from. In

the past 200 years of industrialization

developed countries contributed more

than 80 percent of emissions. Whoever

created this problem is responsible for the

catastrophe we are facing.”— Chinese deputy foreign minister He

Yafei

“If there is no sense of mutuality in this

process, it is going to be difficult for us to

ever move forward in a significant way.”

—President Barack Obama

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,692861,00.html

A Sense of Urgency… UNFCCC timeline

Future of COP/UNFCCC

COP21

40

UNFCCC

Created

Kyoto Protocol adopted;

Annex I vs. Non-Annex I

put into practice

Copenhagen fails to replace Kyoto

Protocol

New mandate to

write agreement by 2015 for 2020 (ADP)

Parties decide to

submit their own

contributions during 2015

(INDCs)

Rio 1992 COP3 1997 COP15 2009

HOW WE GOT HERE

COP17 2011 COP19 2013

42

Debrief Now that you have experienced this level of global

negotiation, what do you feel called to do?

What were your assumptions at the beginning and how

were they changed as the simulation went on?

43

Role of World Climate

Simulation in the Classroom:

What potential benefits/downsides

do you see with this classroom

activity?

44

Thank you!

For more information:

climateinteractive.org