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Negociaciones agrícolas en la OMC: ¿qué está en juego en la Conferencia Ministerial de Buenos Aires?
MC11: A new opportunity to reduce distortions in the agricultural global trade system
David Laborde, Valeria Piñeiro, Joe Glauber
• What should be done to reduce distortions in agricultural world markets?
• What can be done to reduce distortions in agricultural world markets?
• Quantifying options
Overview
• Anexo 2 del Acuerdo sobre la Agricultura – Anexo 2- Compartimento verde
• Artículo 6 del Acuerdo sobre la Agricultura – Párrafo 2- Programas de desarrollo – Párrafo 5- Programas que limitan la
producción (compartimiento azul) – Párrafo 4- De minimis – Párrafo 3- MGA total corriente
• Playing with Boxes: Green, Blue and Amber
Existing WTO framework
Changing Markets
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2002-2004 2011-2013
Cu
mu
late
d S
har
e
Porcentaje sobre total de Exportaciones
Japan
India
China
Brazil
EU28
United States
Rest of the World
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2002-2004 2011-2013
Cu
mu
late
d S
har
e
Porcentaje sobre total de Importaciones
Brazil
India
Japan
China
United States
EU28
Rest of the World
Fuente: Laborde 2014
Changing Policies
Fuente: ICTSD 2017
• Understanding why the Doha Round has failed
• The Cost of Failure
• Potential Solutions
• Policy space and risk management
• Beyond domestic support
More on the last 20 years
A new book
https://www.ifpri.org/blog/ifpri-book-launch-how-trade-policies-can-foster-food-security
http://www.ifpri.org/publication/modeling-international-relationships-applied-general-equilibrium-mirage-model
Analytical Framework
Defining Scenarios
Good data
Economic Model
But Details matter!
Scenario Design
Scenario Design
Key Concept: Overall Trade Distorting Support or OTDS
But details matter! Scenario # 1 2 3 4
Label OTDS with
variable VoP
OTDS with fixed
VoP
OTDS with
product cap
High Ambition
OTDS limit for
Developed 10% 10% 10% 10%
China 17% 17% 17% 17%
Developing 20% 20% 20% 20%
OTDS expressed as % of Current VoP Fixed Reference
VoP
Current VoP Fixed Reference
VoP
Article 6.2 included in OTDS No No No Yes
Product Limit No No Yes** Yes**
OTDS allowed rate reduced over
time
No No No Yes*
Impact on policy space
Scenario Design
Fuente: MIRAGRODEP model simulations 2017
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
450.000
DevelopedCountries
Other DevelopingCountries
Latin AmericanCountries
Russia-India-China
MIL
LIO
NS
USD
(C
ON
STA
NT
20
11
)
ODTS and Bound AMS
S1 S2 S3 S4 Bound AMS
Impact on applied policies
Scenario Design
Fuente: MIRAGRODEP model simulations 2017
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
S1 S2 S3 S4
OTDS payments
Crops Livestock
Impact on world markets
Scenario Design
Fuente: MIRAGRODEP model simulations 2017
-5,00
-4,00
-3,00
-2,00
-1,00
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
Agr
o-f
oo
d
Pri
mar
y Fa
rm…
Cro
ps
Live
sto
ck
Dai
ry p
rod
uct
s
Red
mea
t
Wh
ite
mea
t
Co
rn a
nd
oth
er…
Ric
e
Wh
eat
Oils
eed
s
Pla
nt
fib
ers
Suga
r
Fru
its
and
…
Veg
etab
le O
il
Wo
ol
Pro
cess
ed F
oo
d
PER
CEN
TAG
E C
HA
NG
E IN
20
25
International Trade (volume)
S1
S2
S3
S4
Impact on exports (volume)
Scenario Design
Fuente: MIRAGRODEP model simulations 2017
-3,00
-2,50
-2,00
-1,50
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00P
ERC
ENTA
GE
CH
AN
GE
S1
S2
S3
S4
Impact on real farmer income
Scenario Design
Fuente: MIRAGRODEP model simulations 2017
-30,00
-25,00
-20,00
-15,00
-10,00
-5,00
0,00
5,00
PER
CEN
TAG
E C
HA
NG
ES
S1
S2
S3
S4
• Reforming the Uruguay Round domestic support policy framework is possible
and needed
• Not doing it is increasingly costly
• Discipling policy space in both developing and developed world: role of
emerging countries
• Basic reform will have very limited impacts in the next 10 years
• More ambitious reforms with adequate product limit could deliver significant
gains for some commodities: Very important to properly define “product limit”
Concluding remarks
¡Muchas Gracias!
