Negative Arguments

Topicality

One of the stock issues

Attack on the Affirmative Plan, not advantages

Does the plan fall within the topic (resolution) that we are here to debate?

Voting Issue

Structure of Topicality Arguments

A. Interpretation

B. Violation(s)

C. Standards (reasons to prefer)

D. Voting Issue

2008-09 Resolution and Topicality

Resolved: The United States federal government should substantially increase alternative energy incentives in the United States.

Alternative Energy

Incentives

Topicality: Alternative Energy?

What is Alternative Energy?

Anything not used in the status quo?

most technologies have at least some use in the SQ

lack of solvency evidence would destroy these cases

Depends on the sector

Alternative to Fossil Fuels = Anything that is not coal, petroleum, or natural gas

Alternative = Anything that is renewable, such as solar, wind, hydro, etc.

Topicality: Alternative Energy and Nuclear Power

Should nuclear power be included in alternative energy?

Clash within the energy and government literature

Contextual definitions will be crucial

YES: Not a fossil fuel, does not generate greenhouse gases

NO: Not renewable, creates dangerous nuclear waste

Topicality – Incentives Definition: Something, such as the fear of punishment or the

expectation of reward, that induces action or motivates effort (American Heritage Dictionary)

Positive – expectation of reward

Or Negative – fear of punishment

Is a Prohibition a type of Negative Incentive? Is a Mandate also a type of Negative Incentive?

Or Both Positive and Negative Incentive

Topicality - Incentives

Who is the target of the incentive?

Example: Government Procurement programs

Example: Mandate that vehicles be Flex Fuel capable. It is a requirement on the automobile companies and

dealerships. What happens if they do not meet the requirement?

The target might be consumers and gas stations. They need to shift their behavior.

Who is the ultimate consumer of the alternative energy?

Topicality - Increase

Increase = Create. Cannot be pre-existing in Federal Law, must be entirely new Negative would be guaranteed uniqueness for their arguments Affirmative would have much fewer case

Increase = Expand Must be pre-existing, Cannot be new Negative would be guaranteed more links and a literature base Affirmative would have many cases but limited by solvency advocates

Harms Answers

Major Advantage Areas: Climate Change, Economy, Foreign Wars, Environment & Pollution

Neg teams need basic general answers to all of these

Negative Solvency

1. Incentives will not solve. People will ignore or manipulate

2. Incentives will not solve. Too weak to influence behavior & change the entire energy system of the U.S. Market forces rule

3. Status Quo is Solving. Market, corporations, and consumer choice will solve all

4. Status Quo is Solving. State policies

5. Overshoot. Plan comes too late. We are speed towards a brick wall and the brake are too weak. (contradicts #3 & #4 above)

Negative Solvency

Plan only affects the United States – Global problems will require global solutions. Ex: Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Peak Oil, etc.

Multinational Shift – restrictions here cause corporations and manufacturing to leave the U.S. for other countries to avoid negative incentives

Backstopping – decrease in U.S. demand for oil will result in a huge drop in prices. Oil consumption then goes back up. Can be intentional (action by OPEC) or automatic (market forces)

Disadvantages

Bad results from the plan action. It causes something bad or prevents something that is good.

Connected to the plan (or sometimes to the advantage)

Needs to have a large overall risk (probability X magnitude)

Disads – Typical Structure

Uniqueness or Brink

Link

Internal Link

Impact

Disadvantages – Main Categories

Economic Disadvantages

Political Disadvantages

Supplier Disadvantages

Economic Disads

General Economic Growth Specific Sector (ex: trucking, steel) Specific States or Regions (ex: WVA, Northwest) Core Economic Actor (ex: electricity grid) Federal Spending & Deficits Financial Sector - Stock Market, Biz Con, Investor

Confidence, Hedge Funds Delayed or Diverted Transition (shift to green econ, etc.)

Political Disads - Domestic

Politics. Example: Political Capital and the India Nuclear Deal Crucial population Crucial congressional leader or coalition

Presidential Election. Ex: Plan helps Bush & McCain Crucial demographic (women, Latinos, Native Americans, etc.) Crucial state or region (West Virginia & coal, Michigan & autos)

Congressional Election

State Elections, especially California

Federalism

Political Disads - International

Soft Power. Action would boost U.S. image abroad

Isolationism and Retreat, especially in Middle East. This is functionally “oil dependence good” argument

Supplier Disads

Oil Saudi Arabia: 8.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2006 Russia: 6.57 Norway: 2.54 Iran: 2.52 Venezuela: 2.20 Nigeria: 2.15 Iraq: 1.43

Algeria, Mexico, Libya, Angola, Caspian Sea Region

Supplier Disads

Coal & Global Coal Prices Australia South Africa Indonesia Ukraine West Virginia

Supplier Disads

Natural Gas & Global Natural Gas Prices Russia. 182 billion cubic meters Canada. 102 Norway. 78 Algeria. 63 Iran