NEEDS Why Today's Real Estate Consumer NEEDS Expert Advisor an Expert Advisor Pending Home Sales NAR 8/2012 New Home Starts & Sales Fannie Mae 7/2012 in thousands Fannie Mae 7/2012 Existing Home Sales in thousands Reuters 5/31/2012 Recent conflicting housing data has confused consumers and economists alikeWith so much fluctuating data, how can home buyers possibly figure out whether it's the right time to buy or sell? 2012 will be a very confusing year for consumers. Confusion Leads to Indecision PRICES Going Forward OC Register 6/26/2012 NAR: Home Prices This time next year, there could be a 10% price appreciation. I would not be surprised to see that. -NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun at the National Association of Real Estate Editors conference in Denver Mish 5/23/2012 Gary Shilling: Home Prices Excess inventories are the mortal enemy of pricesIm looking for another 20% decline - Gary Schilling, president A. Gary Shilling & Co Creating confidence from fear Does your knowledge inspire confidence and certainty? It's not the number of people you talk to but the depth of the conversations you have. Do you know what is happening? Do you know why it is happening? Do you know how to communicate it? Three Questions When getting help with money, whether it is insurance, real estate or investments you should always look for someone with the heart of a teacher, not the heart of a salesman. Dave Ramsey financial guru Retention After 3 Days Source: Effective Presentation Skills 2011 Its starting to make sense now. SALES The Key: Sell High and Buy Low Euphoria Optimism Point of maximum risk in investment Point of maximum opportunity Fear Depression Better Off Than 4 Years Ago? * Freddie Mac 30 Year Rate **Principal and Interest Date Median Sales Price* 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate** P&I Payment August 2008 $210, $1, August 2012 $188, $ Savings$476.13 TimeSavings Monthly Annually Over 30 Years $171,407 Over the Next 30 Years Home Price Expectation Survey Home Price Expectation Survey 6/27/2012 Source Home Price Expectation Survey Urban Land InstituteFlat Demand Institute Study Projected Annual % Change in Home Prices Prices Year-Over-Year (FHFA) 9/2012 LISTINGS There is a clear seasonal pattern. In recent years the seasonal pattern has been exaggerated by the large number of foreclosures - foreclosures tend to be fairly steady all year, but conventional sales are stronger in the spring and early summer, and weaker in the fall and winter. This leads to more downward pressure from foreclosures in the fall and winter. Future Home Prices Calculated Risk 8/ Calculated Risk Historic Price Fluctuation Calculated Risk 8/2012 Judicial and Non-Judicial States Highest Foreclosure Inventory Home Price Expectation Survey Home Price Expectation Survey 6/27/2012 The Value of Getting on with Their Life