Need for Precision Agriculture in the WorldNeed for Precision Agriculture in the World

SOIL 4213SOIL 4213

World population and the environment

http://www.globalissues.org

http://dieoff.com/page174.htm

(World Population) link

"As the difficulty in feeding 90 million more people each year becomes apparent, FOOD SECURITY MAY REPLACE MILITARY SECURITY as the principal preoccupation of governments. For many countries, security now depends more on protecting their territory from soil erosion than it does on protecting it from military invasion." by Ronald Bleier rbleier@igc.apc.org

If we were to maintain our present rate of population growth, by 2095 the world's population would reach almost 13.7 billion.

1999 UN Population projections. The medium fertility scenario predicts 9.5 billion in 2050, peaking at 11 billion in 2200.

"World population reached 6.1 billion in mid-2000 and is currently growing at an annual rate of 1.2 per cent, or 77 million people per year. Six countries account for half of this annual growth: India for 21 per cent; China for 12 per cent; Pakistan for 5 per cent; Nigeria for 4 per cent; Bangladesh for 4 per cent, and Indonesia for 3 per cent. By 2050, world population is expected to be between 7.9 billion (low variant) and 10.9 billion (high variant), with the medium variant producing 9.3 billion." -- World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision Highlights, United Nations Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 28 February 2001, p.5

Population in 2001 and 2011

Total (roundedin millions)

Density (People persquare kilometer)

GNP rank

United States 286 311 31 1

Japan 127 127 337 2

Germany 82 81 230 3

France 59 65 108 4

United Kingdom 60 62 244 5

Italy 58 60 191 6

China (12% world growth) 1,285 1,341 134 7

India (21) 1,025 1,193 312 11

Russian Federation 145 141 8 16

Indonesia (3) 214 237 113 30

Bangladesh (4) 140 149 975 53

Nigeria 117 158 127 55

Figure 1. World fertilizer N consumption in millions of metric tons, 1961 to 2002, and projected linear consumption. (2050 = 196 million metric tons)

Figure 1. World fertilizer N consumption in millions of metric tons, 1961 to 2002, and projected linear consumption. (2050 = 196 million metric tons)

0

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30

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90

1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004

Year

Fer

tiliz

er N

, Mt

x 1,

000,

000

Figure 2. World population as a function of world consumption of fertilizer N in millions of metric tons, 1961 to 2002 (World Population in 1960 was 3 billion)

Figure 2. World population as a function of world consumption of fertilizer N in millions of metric tons, 1961 to 2002 (World Population in 1960 was 3 billion)

y = 35778x + 3E+06R2 = 0.94

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

World consumption of fertilizer N, Mt x 1,000,000

Wo

rld

Po

pu

lati

on

x 1

000

Figure 3. Metric tons of grain produced per metric ton of fertilizer N applied in the world, from 1961 to 2002.Figure 3. Metric tons of grain produced per metric ton of fertilizer N applied in the world, from 1961 to 2002.

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40

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140

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Year

Mt

gra

in/M

t o

f N

Developed Developing

Year N applied in cereals †

Cereal production Area harvested

Mg Grain/ Mg N applied

N applied in cereals †

Cereal production

Area harvested

Mg Grain/ Mg N applied

Mg x 106 Mg x 106 ha Mg x 106 Mg x 106 ha x 106

1990 21 913 279 42.99 25 1,037 428 41.45

1991 19 837 272 42.08 25 1,051 431 41.33

1992 17 891 274 50.04 26 1,081 434 40.93

1993 17 803 267 44.70 25 1,099 428 43.02

1994 16 857 259 50.46 26 1,099 435 41.44

1995 17 769 252 44.42 29 1,127 434 37.93

1996 17 867 258 48.83 31 1,203 445 37.88

1997 17 907 259 52.81 30 1,188 439 38.45

1998 17 858 237 48.21 31 1,224 443 38.53

1999 17 848 230 47.22 33 1,230 441 36.90

2000 na 867 235 - na 1,186 434 -

2001 na 854 236 - na 1,189 432 -

† N applied in cereals computed as 60% of the total (Alexandratos, 1995, p. 190). ‡ production, and consumption data from FAO, 1999.

Nitrogen applied for cereal production, area harvested, and grain produced per unit of N applied in the developed and developing world, 1990 to 2001‡.

Need for Precision Agriculture (1)Need for Precision Agriculture (1)

In 1970, 190,500,000 ha classified as arable and permanent cropland in the USA

Decreased to 187,776,000 ha by 1991. Irrigated land in the USA peaked at

20,582,000 hectares in 1980 and has been stable at 18,771,000 hectares since 1989.

Trends suggest that cropland in the USA will not expand beyond the present 190,000,000 ha

In 1970, 190,500,000 ha classified as arable and permanent cropland in the USA

Decreased to 187,776,000 ha by 1991. Irrigated land in the USA peaked at

20,582,000 hectares in 1980 and has been stable at 18,771,000 hectares since 1989.

Trends suggest that cropland in the USA will not expand beyond the present 190,000,000 ha

Developing world: 760,000,000 hectares classified as cropland and could theoretically increase to 850,000,000 hectares.

World population increases by 86 million people per year (235,000/day, World Resources, 1996).

33,000 people die each day due to malnutrition/starvation

Cropland needed to feed the human population, if population growth stops and land is preserved, will be roughly 3.3 billion hectares, and likely to become limiting near the year 2050

Developing world: 760,000,000 hectares classified as cropland and could theoretically increase to 850,000,000 hectares.

World population increases by 86 million people per year (235,000/day, World Resources, 1996).

33,000 people die each day due to malnutrition/starvation

Cropland needed to feed the human population, if population growth stops and land is preserved, will be roughly 3.3 billion hectares, and likely to become limiting near the year 2050

Need for Precision Agriculture (2)Need for Precision Agriculture (2)

Probability of bringing 3.3 billion hectares into production from the current 1.4 billion hectares is small (www.igc.org/millennium).

A large portion of the lands considered as 'potentially arable' (e.g., increase from 1.4 to 3.3 billion hectares) include tropical rainforests and other lands that would require massive inputs for any kind of sustained crop production.

Probability of bringing 3.3 billion hectares into production from the current 1.4 billion hectares is small (www.igc.org/millennium).

A large portion of the lands considered as 'potentially arable' (e.g., increase from 1.4 to 3.3 billion hectares) include tropical rainforests and other lands that would require massive inputs for any kind of sustained crop production.

Need for Precision Agriculture (3)Need for Precision Agriculture (3)

Need for Precision Agriculture (4)Need for Precision Agriculture (4)

Unlikely that the total arable world land will increase beyond its present level

Increased production per unit area will be essential.

Applied precision agricultural production practices are timely and required within the developed and developing agricultural community.

Unlikely that the total arable world land will increase beyond its present level

Increased production per unit area will be essential.

Applied precision agricultural production practices are timely and required within the developed and developing agricultural community.

Precision Agriculture?

Human need Environment

Hypoxia $750,000,000 (excess N flowing down the

Mississippi river/yr) Developed vs Developing Countries High vs Low yielding environments

Continued success in wheat germplasm and technology dissemination worldwide depends on the free and uninhibited flow of genetic materials and information. Restrictions imposed on such movement due to intellectual property protection could have serious consequences on the ability of developing countries to sustain wheat productivity growth.

…. further gains would have to come from specifically targeting breeding efforts to the unique characteristics of marginal environments