NCSU COAWST Nowcast/Forecast Modeling System:

Implementation and Examples

Ruoying He1,Joe Zambon1, Zhigang Yao1,Jill Nelson1, John Warner2

1. Dept. of Marine, Earth & Atmospheric SciencesNorth Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC

2. US Geological Survey, Woods Hole, MA

MARACOOS Modeling Meeting 22-July 2013

C = Coupled MCT http://www-unix.mcs.anl.gov/mct/

O = Ocean ROMS http://www.myroms.org/

A = Atmosphere WRF http://www.wrf-model.org/

W = Wave SWANhttp://vlm089.citg.tudelft.nl/swan

ST = Sediment Transport CSTMShttp://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-

pages/sediment-transport/

Modeling System

COAWSTCoupled Ocean– Atmosphere – Wave – Sediment Transport

Modeling System to investigate variability of coastal environments

svn 455

v 2.6.0

v 3.4

v 40.81

OCEAN

ATMOSPHERE

WAVE

us, vs, h, bath, Z0

Hwave, Lmwave, Lpwave, Dwave,Tpsurf, Tmbott, Qb, Dissbot, Disssurf, Disswcap, Ubot

MCT

Uwind, V

wind, P

atm, R

H, Tair

,

cloud

, rain,

evap

, SW

rad, L

wrad

LH, H

FX, Ustr

ess,

Vstres

s

SST

MCT

Uwind , V

wind

Hwave , L

pwave ,

Tpsurf ,

MCTWRF wind speed

Longitude

Latit

ude

ROMS SST SWAN Hsig

NCSU COAWST-ROMS Configuration(USeast coast - Gulf of Mexico - Caribbean)

Atmospheric forcing

Tides (7 Constituents)OTIS 1/12°Atlantic Ocean(M2, S2, N2, K2, O1, K1,

Q1)

Initial and boundary 1/12°Global HYCOM NCODA

Solutions

RiverUSGS River discharge

Topography2-Minute Gridded Global Relief Data (ETOPO2v2)

Model resolution : 7~10 kmModel Grid points : 482x402 Vertical Layer : 36

Atmospheric forcing

Initial and boundary 1/2° WW III Solutions

Topography2-Minute Gridded Global Relief Data (ETOPO2v2)

Model resolution : 7~10 kmModel Grid points : 482x402

NCSU COAWST-SWAN Configuration(USeast coast - Gulf of Mexico - Caribbean)

Model grid• 392x459 grid points, 9-km grid spacing• 31 Vertical Levels

NCEP GFS used for Initial/Lateral Boundary Conditions

Vortex-Following Moving Nest (for hurricane)• 400x400, 31 Vertical Levels, 3-km grid spacing

NCSU COAWST-WRF Configuration(USeast coast - Gulf of Mexico - Caribbean)

Florida Transport

Sub-tidal sea level

Mean SSH(Jul-Dec, 2012)

Validation against Various Ocean Observations

Mean SSH(Jul-Dec, 2012)

Florida Current Transport

Hurricane Sandy Validation

against NHC data

F00

F12

F24

F36F48

NHC Best TrackCOAWST Simulation

Strength (ms-1)

F00 through F48

NHC DataCOWAST Simulation

Intensity (hPa)

• Hurricane track (upper)• Hurricane Intensity (upper right)• Hurricane strength (lower right)

44695U (m/s)

V (m/s)

SLP (hpa)

44025U (m/s)

V (m/s)

44009U (m/s)

V (m/s)

SLP (hpa)SLP (hpa)

• NDBC buoy observation• COAWST simulation

Widespread rain, snow, and ice Strong winds and extreme cold Affects densely populated areas

Coastal storm surge and flooding Severe beach erosion Commercial fishing industry affected

11

COAWST simulation of Winter Extratropical Cyclone (ETC)

Neslon, J (2011)

Nelson and He (2012)

There are on average,12 east coast ETCs per winter. They arguably cause more damage to the U.S. east coast than tropical storms and hurricanes due to the frequency of their occurrence, long duration, and widespread societal, economic, and environmental impacts.

January 22- 24, 2005 “Bomb” cyclones deepen at least 1 mb/hr for 24 hrs

Surface Air Temperature

Glider T

Shelf water Temperature14 January 2005

Model T

Model/Data Comparisons

NCSU COAWST Nowcast/Forecast Web portal

COAWST related publications

• Warner, J.C., Armstrong, B., He, R., and Zambon, J.B. (2010), Development of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system: Ocean Modeling, v. 35, no. 3, p. 230-244.

• Kumar, N., Voulgaris, G., and Warner, J.C. (2011). Implementation and modification of a three-dimensional radiation stress formulation for surf zone and rip-current applications, Coastal Engineering, 58, 1097-1117, doi:10.1016/ j.coastaleng.2011.06.009.

• Olabarrieta, M., J. C. Warner, and N. Kumar (2011), Wave-current interaction in Willapa Bay, J. Geophys. Res., 116, C12014, doi:10.1029/2011JC007387.

• Kumar, N., Voulgaris, G., Warner, J.C., and M., Olabarrieta (2012). Implementation of a vortex force formalism in a coupled modeling system for inner-shelf and surf-zone applications. Ocean Modeling.

• Olabarieta, M., Warner, J., Armstrong, B., Zambon, J., and He, R. (2012), Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics During Hurricane Ida and Nor’Ida: An Application of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System, Ocean Modelling, 43-44, 112-137.

• Xue, Z., He, R., Liu, J. P, J. C. Warner (2012), Modeling Transport and Deposition of the Mekong River Sediment, Continental Shelf Research, doi:10.1016/ j.csr.2012.02.010.

• Nelson, J. and He. R. (2012), Effect of the Gulf Stream on Winter Extratropical Cyclone Outbreaks, Atmospheric Research Letter, doi: 10.1002/asl.400.

• Zambon, J.B., He, R., Warner J.C (2013). Prediction of Hurricane Ivan using a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System, Weather and Forecasting, in review