NC PoliticsChris Cooper and Gibbs Knotts

Political Science and Public Affairs

Agenda• Introduction• NC Politics Overview• Election 2008• Election 2010• Looking Forward• Questions/Comments

About Us

About Us

NC Politics and Policy Blog• http://wcuppi.blogspot.com/

Boyer Model of Scholarship• Application (Engagement)• Teaching & Learning• Discovery• Integration

Quality Enhancement Plan

Agenda• Introduction• NC Politics Overview• Election 2008• Election 2010• Looking Forward• Questions/Comments

NC Politics Overview

Book Contributors• HISTORICAL OVERVIEW, Thomas Eamon (ECU)• PUBLIC OPINION, Timothy Vercellotti (formerly Elon)• POLITICAL PARTIES, Charles Prysby (UNCG)• INTEREST GROUPS, Adam Newmark (ASU)• MEDIA, Ferrel Guillory (UNC-CH)• GOVERNORS, Jack Fleer (WFU)• COURTS, Ruth Ann Strickland (ASU)• INTERGOVERNMENTAL RELATIONS, Sean Hildebrand

and James Svara (formerly NCSU)• ENVIRONMENT, Dennis Grady and Jonathan Kanipe

(ASU)• EDUCATION, Hunter Bacot (Elon)

The Importance of NC

NC in Comparative Perspective

Progressive Politics in NC?

“[North Carolina] enjoys a progressive outlook and action in many phases of life, especially industrial development, education, and race relations” (V.O. Key 1949).

The Paradox of NC Politics

Metrics for NC Politics• Party Competition• Racial and Gender Diversity• Media Quality• Public Opinion• Policy Outcomes• Governmental Reform• Capacity to Govern

Professionalism• Salary

– NH=$100/year– NC=$13,951– CA=$116,208

• Staff– 13th most staff

• Session Length– It’s Complicated…

80.0% Full-Time Legislator7.5% Business Owner3.3% Business: Executive/Manager2.5% Medical1.7% Consultant/Profess./Nonprofit1.7% Real Estate0.8% Agriculture0.8% Attorney0.8% Educator: College0.8% Government Employee: Local0.0% Accountant0.0% Business: Non-Manager0.0% Clergy0.0% Communication/Arts0.0% Educator: K-120.0% Engineer/Scientist/Architect0.0% Government Employee: State0.0% Homemaker0.0% Insurance0.0% Labor Union0.0% Retired

California New Hampshire41.2% Retired10.2% Consultant/Profess./Nonprofit

6.3% Business Owner5.8% Business: Executive/Manager5.1% Educator: K-124.6% Real Estate4.4% Attorney4.1% Homemaker3.4% Communication/Arts2.9% Business: Non-Manager2.7% Medical2.4% Engineer/Scientist/Architect2.4% Government Employee: Local1.7% Educator: College1.7% Student0.5% Full-Time Legislator0.5% Government Employee: State0.2% Accountant0.2% Insurance0.0% Agriculture0.0% Clergy

28.2% Retired19.4% Attorney12.9% Consultant/Professional/Nonprofit

9.4% Agriculture9.4% Business Owner8.2% Business: Executive/Manager3.5% Real Estate2.4% Full-Time Legislator2.4% Medical2.1% Educator: College1.8% Business: Non-Manager1.8% Communication/Arts1.8% Homemaker1.2% Clergy1.2% Educator: K-121.2% Engineer/Scientist/Architect1.2% Insurance0.6% Government Employee: Local0.0% Accountant0.0% Government Employee: State0.0% Labor Union

North Carolina

Other Effects of Professionalism• Longer tenure/less turnover• Increased power relative to the executive• More constituent contact• More time to spend “being a legislator”• Increased job satisfaction• Better informed legislators (both on

process and on issues)

Gubernatorial Power is a function of...

• Is Governor elected separately, or is s/he part of a team?

• Tenure potential• Appointment Power• Budget Power• Veto Power• Party Control

Other Factors that Vary Across States

• Direct Democracy• Term Limits• Power of lobbyists• Power of the media• How district lines are drawn• Distance to the state capital

Agenda• Introduction• NC Politics Overview• Election 2008• Election 2010• Hot Topics• Questions/Comments

Political Science Heaven

Historic Election

Historic Election

Predictability of Elections• State of the economy• Popularity of incumbent

president• Length of party control in the

White House

Predictability of ElectionsAlan Abramowitz, Emory University• 69 days before the election• 90% chance of Obama victory• 46% for McCain

Actual results• 46% for McCain

Turnout Across the South

0 20 40 60 80VEP Turnout

AR

TX

TN

SC

GA

M S

AL

LA

NC

FL

VA

Source: http://elections.gmu.edu/

New Media

Comparing Mobilization Strategies

• ~3% increase in turnout for text messages ($1.56/vote)

• ~3% increase for door-to-door ($29/vote)• ~3% increase for quality phone calls

($38/vote)• ~1.5% increase for mailing• No increase for email• No increase for robo-calls

Why Did NC Go Blue in 2008?• It was never that red• It was a very close election• Youth Turnout was up (from 41st

highest to 11th highest)• Migrants born outside the South

(36% of registered voters between 1998 and 2008) were more likely to vote for Obama

NC Migrants are more likely to be…

• Older• Male• More educated• Suburban• Not Baptist• Infrequent church attendees• Liberal• Politically unaffiliatedSource: Hood and McKee (2010)

Agenda• Introduction• NC Politics Overview• Election 2008• Election 2010• Looking Forward• Questions/Comments

2010 Midterm Elections

435 House Elections• 257 Democratic Seats/178 Republican Seats37 Senate Elections• 19 Democratic Seats/18 Republican Seats

Source: New York Times, October 10

Source: New York Times, October 10

Democratic Vulnerability in NC

• NC-12 (Watt-D) 70%• NC-4 (Price-D) 63%• NC-1 (Butterfield-D) 62%• NC-13 (Miller-D) 59%• NC-8 (Kissell-D) 53%• NC-2 (Etheridge-D) 52%• NC-11 (Shuler-D) 47%• NC-7 (McIntyre-D) 47%• NC-9 (Myrick-R) 45%• NC 10 (Foxx-R) 38%• NC-3 (Jones-R) 38%• NC-6 (Coble-R) 36%• NC-10 (McHenry-R) 36%

Source: http://www.swingstateproject.com

The 2011 General Assembly• Senate

–38% Democratic •Down from 57% Democratic

• House–43% Democratic

•Down from 60% Democratic

Who cares?• Women and minorities pass

and introduce different types of legislation

• Effects on political efficacy

What About Ideology?

Speculate on NC Gen Assembly Nominate Stuff Here

Summary: What Happened?

• As fitting predictions, Democrats kept the Senate, but lost the House.

• Turnout wasn’t particularly high• Youth voter turnout went back down• Attack ads continued to increase• Female representation decreased• NC legislative leadership continued to move to

the extremes• North Carolina continued towards purple

Agenda• Introduction• NC Politics Overview• Election 2008• Election 2010• Looking Forward• Questions/Comments

Looking Forward• No relationship between

midterm results and the prospects for the incumbent President in the following election cycle

General Election Predictions• Obama vs. Romney (Tied)• Obama vs. Huckabee

(Huckabee up but within MOE)

• Obama vs. Palin (Obama up)• Obama vs. Gingrich (Tied)

Is Obama Losing Voters?• No. About as many plan to

defect from McCain to Obama as from Obama to the Republicans.

Governor’s Race• 33% approve of Perdue, only

51% among Democrats• Perdue is tied with Tom

Fetzer• Perdue loses to Pat McCrory

37-49

Agenda• Introduction• NC Politics Overview• Election 2008• Election 2010• Hot Topics• Questions/Comments

Questions/Comments