NC Agriculture in Ten Years

Peter Thornton

The more things change,the more they stay the same…

• In Ten Years– North Carolina will grow tobacco – North Carolina will produce row crops for local

animal feed production– There will be no hover crafts, Japanese buyer

that purchases a special product for 10X the local price or any other major change

– NC Agriculture will still be NC’s #1 industry

The future was five years ago…

• What we perceive as the future happened five years ago…– Labor left China to find lower cost production– Major tobacco moved here to secure supply– Prices are not determined by local markets,

but international markets– China is increasingly yesterday’s news….

Obsolete in three years….

• Half of what a 1st year computer tech student learns is obsolete by the 3rd year.

• Agriculture is no different– After the WTO case, cotton was dead. Today

it sells at record high prices– Yesterday’s success story is today’s

commodity market– When China sneezes, US ag gets a cold.

How do we stay competitive?

• Change and innovation– We go broke using 2001 production and

marketing– You become rich using 2021 production and

marketing– We become obsolete doing tomorrow what we

did 2011

The Question is…

• What does 2022 look like? – In 1962 we used the postage stamp – In 1972 we used the telephone (rarely) – In 1982 we used the telex machine– In 1992 we used the fax machine– In 2002 we used e-mail on our PC– In 2012 we use I phone video Skype and Facebook – In 2022 it will be smaller, faster, more informed and

closer than ever to the final consumer.

International Marketing 2021

• Producers will know international buyers before they speak to them and vice versa

• Trade shows will be virtual

• 75% of direct sales staff will travel globally

• Producers will stop looking to the farmers market for prices, instead Dalian China

• The power will be in the technology

International Markets for NC

• Differentiating North Carolina in an increasingly commoditized market will be the difference between success and failure

• Getting that message across will be more difficult with more competing information

• The final consumer will have to pay more for the products they want

Right now….

• We are #1 but behind the curve.

• We are rapidly becoming obsolete.

• How do we get in front of it?

• How do we make ourselves relevant?

• 1st step – define where we are going….