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8/16/2019 NBC News SurveyMonkey Toplines and Methodology 5 16 5 22
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nbc-news-surveymonkey-toplines-and-methodology-5-16-5-22 1/7
NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll
Embargoed for release Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 6:00AM
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of May 16, 2016 through May 22, 2016 are among a national sample of 16,710 adults aged 18 and over,
including 14,513 registered voters (+/- 1.0%), 4,077 registered Republican voters (+/-2.0%) and 4,888 registered Democratic voters
(+/-1.7%). Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.
TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?
Foreign
Policy
The
environment Terrorism Immigration
Health
care
Jobs and the
Economy Education Other
No
answer
5/16 – 5/22 4 8 13 6 16 36 12 5 1
5/9 – 5/15 4 9 12 7 16 35 11 5 15/2 – 5/8 4 9 12 7 15 36 12 5 1
4/25-5/1 4 9 14 7 16 33 11 6 1
4/18-4/24 4 9 14 8 15 32 11 6 1
4/11-4/17 4 8 16 7 15 32 11 5 1
4/4—4/10 4 8 17 8 14 31 11 6 1
3/28 – 4/3 5 8 19 7 15 32 10 5 1
3/21 – 3/27 4 8 18 7 13 32 10 5 1
3/14 – 3/20 4 9 12 7 15 36 11 5 1
3/7 – 3/13 4 8 13 8 16 35 10 6 1
2/29 – 3/6 4 9 13 7 16 35 11 5 1
2/22 – 2/28 5 8 14 7 16 34 10 5 1
2/15 – 2/21 5 8 16 7 15 33 10 5 1
2/8 – 2/14 4 8 16 8 14 34 10 5 1
2/1 – 2/7 5 9 15 7 16 32 10 5 -1/25 – 1/31 5 9 17 8 13 32 10 5 -
1/18 – 1/24 4 8 19 7 15 33 10 5 1
1/11 – 1/17 5 8 21 8 13 29 10 4 1
1/4 – 1/10 5 8 23 8 13 28 8 5 1
12/28-1/3 6 8 23 8 14 27 9 5 1
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Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove No answer
5/16 – 5/22 27 23 13 36 1
5/9 – 5/15 28 23 13 35 1
5/2-5/8 28 23 12 36 1
4/25-5-1 27 24 13 36 1
4/18-4/24 26 24 13 37 1
4/11-4/17 28 24 12 37 1
4/4—4/10 27 23 13 37 1
3/28 – 4/3 28 24 13 35 1
3/21 – 3/27 27 24 13 35 1
3/14 – 3/20 27 24 13 35 1
3/7 – 3/13 27 23 13 36 1
2/29 – 3/6 27 23 12 37 1
2/22 – 2/28 27 23 12 37 1
2/15 – 2/21 26 22 12 39 -
2/8 – 2/14 26 24 12 38 1
2/1 – 2/7 27 23 12 38 1
1/25 – 1/31 25 22 12 40 1
1/18 – 1/24 26 24 14 36 -1/11 – 1/17 26 22 12 40 1
1/4 – 1/10 23 22 12 42 1
12/28 – 1/3 23 25 12 40 1
In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent? Republican Democrat Independent No answer
5/16 - 5/22 29 34 35 1
5/9 – 5/15 28 35 35 1
5/2 - 5/8 32 35 31 2
4/25-5/1 28 36 35 1
4/18-4/24 28 35 36 1
4/11-4/17 29 34 35 1
4/4—4/10 30 34 35 13/28 – 4/3 29 35 35 2
3/21 – 3/27 30 33 36 2
3/14 – 3/20 30 36 32 2
3/7 – 3/13 31 35 33 2
2/29 – 3/6 32 36 31 2
2/22 – 2/28 31 35 33 2
2/15 – 2/21 31 35 33 1
2/8 – 2/14 30 35 33 2
2/1 – 2/7 30 35 33 2
1/25 – 1/31 31 34 33 2
1/18 – 1/24 28 34 36 1
1/11 – 1/17 31 34 33 2
1/4 – 1/10 33 32 34 2
12/28 – 1/3 30 34 34 2
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As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]
RepublicanParty
DemocraticParty Neither No answer
5/16 – 5/22 31 29 37 3
5/9 – 5/15 33 28 36 3
5/2 – 5/8 32 32 35 1
4/25-5/1 32 27 38 3
4/18-4/24 35 27 35 3
4/11-4/17 33 30 34 3
4/4 – 4/10 33 28 35 4
3/28 – 4/3 31 29 38 2
3/21 – 3/27 31 28 37 4
3/14 – 3/20 31 28 39 2
3/7 – 3/13 31 27 41 2
2/29 – 3/6 32 29 36 2
2/22 – 2/28 34 28 36 22/15 – 2/21 38 28 33 2
2/8 – 2/14 34 28 35 3
2/1 – 2/7 35 30 33 2
1/25 – 1/31 34 26 37 3
1/18 – 1/24 33 27 39 2
1/11 – 1/17 36 26 37 2
1/4 – 1/10 36 26 36 1
12/28 – 1/3 37 24 37 1
Here are the candidates running in the Democratic presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Democratic nomination for president? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]
Hillary Clinton Martin O’Malley Bernie Sanders Don’t know No answer
5/16 – 5/22 51 - 42 7 -5/9 - 5/15 54 - 40 5 -5/2 – 5/8 53 - 41 5 -4/25-5/1 54 - 40 6 14/18-4/24 52 - 42 6 -4/11-4/17 50 - 43 7 -4/4—4/10 49 - 43 7 13/28 – 4/3 51 - 42 6 13/21 – 3/27 49 - 43 8 -3/14 – 3/20 53 - 41 6 1
3/7 – 3/13 54 - 41 5 -2/29 – 3/6 55 - 38 7 12/22 – 2/28 51 - 41 8 12/15 – 2/21 51 - 40 9 12/8 – 2/14 50 - 40 9 12/1 – 2/7 51 1 39 8 11/25 – 1/31 50 2 39 8 11/18 – 1/24 51 2 37 9 11/11 – 1/17 52 1 36 9 2
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1/4 – 1/10 52 2 37 8 112/28 – 1/3 53 2 36 8 1From 12/28-2/14, the question wording was slightly different because of the stage of the race. Previous question wording: If the 2016
Republican/Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?
Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
Donald Trump,
the Republican
No
answer
5/16 – 5/22 47 43 9
5/9 – 5/15 48 45 7
5/2 – 5/8 49 44 7
Which one of the following is the most important reason that you support Hillary Clinton: [AMONG those who selected Clinton in
match-up against Trump]
Opposition to
Donald Trump Experience
Positions on
the issues
Leadership
ability
She is the Democratic
nominee No answer
5/16 – 5/22 33 30 15 15 8 -
Which one of the following is the most important reason that you support Donald Trump: [AMONG those who selected Trump in
match-up against Clinton]
Opposition to
Hillary Clinton Experience
Positions on
the issues
Leadership
ability
He is the Republican
nominee No answer
5/16 – 5/22 36 2 31 24 6 -
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?
Bernie Sanders,
the Democrat
Donald Trump,
the Republican No answer
5/16 – 5/22 53 41 6
5/9-5/15 53 41 6
5/5 – 5/8 53 40 7
Who do you think will win the 2016 presidential election?
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump No answer
5/16-5/22 51 42 7
5/9 – 5/15 51 43 6
How would you best describe your feelings toward Hillary Clinton, do you:
Admire her
Like her, but
don’t admire her
Dislike her, but
don’t hate her Hate her No answer
5/16 – 5/22 17 23 37 21 1
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How would you best describe your feelings toward Donald Trump, do you:
Admire him
Like him, but
don’t admire him
Dislike him, but
don’t hate him Hate him No answer
5/16 – 5/22 10 26 39 24 1
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METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of May 16, 2016 through May 22, 2016 was conducted online among a
national sample of 16,710 adults aged 18 and over, including 14,513 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected
from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age,
race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to
reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.0 percentage point for the full sample and plus or minus 1.0 percentage point
for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group Unweighted N Plus or minus
Total sample 16,710 1.0
Total RVs 14,513 1.0
Republican RVs 4,077 2.0
Democrat RVs 4,888 1.7
Very conservative 1,375 3.5
Conservative 3,978 2.1
Moderate 6,855 1.5Liberal 2,867 2.2
Very liberal 1,236 3.5
Male 8,102 1.3
Female 8,608 1.3
18-24 1,389 3.3
25-34 2,207 2.7
35-44 2,635 2.4
45-54 3,497 2.1
55-64 3,902 2.065+ 3,080 2.2
White 12,004 1.1
Black 1,469 3.4
Hispanic 1,715 3.1
Other 1,522 3.0
Income: <$50k 4,702 1.8
Income: $50k-$99k 5,395 1.7
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Income: $100k or more 5,675 1.6
Education: HS or less 2,369 2.2
Education: Some college 4,849 1.5
Education: College or more 9,492 1.1
Clinton voters 3,946 2.0Sanders voters 3,007 2.3