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Navigating between Fear and Greed Using Checklists Guy Spier CEO, Aquamarine Capital

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Page 1: Navigating between Fear and Greed Using Checklists Guy ...csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Checklists_Spier.pdf · Navigating between Fear and Greed Using Checklists Guy

Navigatingbetween

Fear and GreedUsing Checklists

Guy Spier

CEO, Aquamarine Capital

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Navigatingbetween

Fear and GreedUsing Checklists

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Historical performance represents Aquamarine Fund, Inc. Returns are based on estimated results as of 5/19/08.

Cumulative Return (Net of Fees Since Inception Sep, 1997)

(as of May 19, 2009)

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

Fund DJIU S&P 500 FT 100

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Year Fund S&P 5002009* 13.3% 0.7%

2008* -46.7% -38.5%

2007 17.0% 3.5%

2006 37.1% 13.6%

2005 7.2% 3.0%

2004 11.2% 9.0%

2003 29.5% 26.4%

2002 -1.6% -23.4%

2001 1.9% -13.0%

2000 21.4% -10.1%

1999 -6.7% 19.5%

1998 26.1% 33.6%

1997 2.5%^ 5.5%^

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(As of May 19, 2009 net of fees since inception Sep 1997

Historical performance represents Aquamarine Fund, Inc.

Fund DJIU S&P 500 FT 100

Cumulative Return 119.5% 10.1% -1.1% -9.0%

Annualized Return 7.0% 0.8% -0.1% -0.8%

Trailing 12-Months Return -38.1% -34.8% -36.2% -30.0%

Average Monthly Return 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1%

% of Positive Months 63.8% 57.4% 61.7% 56.7%

Months with Positive Returns 90 81 87 80

Months with Negative Returns 51 60 54 61

Annualized Standard Deviation 21.8% 17.9% 20.7% 17.3%

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Aquamarine Capital Assets Under Management($ in millions)

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

Dec 97 Dec 98 Dec 99 Dec 00 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08

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"I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men

- Isaac Newton

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Interactive Systems Worldwide Announces Extension of Agreement

With SportingbetWEST PATERSON, N.J., Jan. 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Interactive Systems Worldwide, Inc. (Pink Sheets: ISWI) has announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Global Interactive Gaming Limited (GIG), has extended its agreement with a subsidiary of Sportingbet Plc, the online sports betting and gaming group, until the end of 2011.

The financial terms of the previous agreement regarding GIG's fees, which specified that GIG's monthly revenue would be determined by the greater of a revenue share percentage and a minimum monthly guarantee, are unchanged and will remain in effect for the duration of the extended agreement. In addition, Sportingbet has agreed to provide to GIG, in a series of four quarterly payments, an advance payment of a portion of the next three years' monthly minimums. The companies have agreed to a schedule of credits to be provided by GIG to Sportingbet applicable to future monthly service invoices to offset the advance payments.

As a part of this agreement, ISWI has issued to Sportingbet a 5-year warrant to purchase 500,000 shares of ISWI common stock at a price of $0.50.

Bernard Albanese, the Company's CEO, stated, "We are extremely pleased with Sportingbet's decision to extend the agreement for another three years. It validates the uniqueness of our offering, and attests to their satisfaction with our services. Sportingbet is one of the premier on-line gaming companies in the world, and we are proud to be associated with them in this strategic relationship."

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Interactive Systems Worldwide Announces Extension of Agreement

With SportingbetWEST PATERSON, N.J., Jan. 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Interactive Systems Worldwide, Inc. (Pink Sheets: ISWI) has announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Global Interactive Gaming Limited (GIG), has extended its agreement with a subsidiary of Sportingbet Plc, the online sports betting and gaming group, until the end of 2011.

The financial terms of the previous agreement regarding GIG's fees, which specified that GIG's monthly revenue would be determined by the greater of a revenue share percentage and a minimum monthly guarantee, are unchanged and will remain in effect for the duration of the extended agreement. In addition, Sportingbet has agreed to provide to GIG, in a series of four quarterly payments, an advance payment of a portion of the next three years' monthly minimums. The companies have agreed to a schedule of credits to be provided by GIG to Sportingbet applicable to future monthly service invoices to offset the advance payments.

As a part of this agreement, ISWI has issued to Sportingbet a 5-year warrant to purchase 500,000 shares of ISWI common stock at a price of $0.50.

Bernard Albanese, the Company's CEO, stated, "We are extremely pleased with Sportingbet's decision to extend the agreement for another three years. It validates the uniqueness of our offering, and attests to their satisfaction with our services. Sportingbet is one of the premier on-line gaming companies in the world, and we are proud to be associated with them in this strategic relationship."

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Interactive Systems Worldwide ISWI (Pink Sheets)

Some of ISW/SportXction/GIG partners past and current:

Wirex Corp (Italy)

Steve Lizak (Canada)

Sunderlands (ultimate ownership in Curacao)

SportingBet PLC (UK)

Ladbrokes Gaming (UK)

Kirsch Media (German)

Telewest (UK)

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YONKERS, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 14, 2003 EVCI's Net Earnings Per Share Advances from $.01 per share to $.16 per share on a 54% Revenue Increase for 1st Quarter

EVCI Career Colleges Incorporated (Nasdaq:EVCI), a rapidly growing post-secondary education company reported record revenues and net income for the first quarter of fiscal 2003. The results reflect EVCI's successful implementation of its growth strategy and better than expected enrollment for the spring semester.

EVCI reported revenues of approximately $6.0 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2003 versus revenues of approximately $3.9

EVCI Exceeds Guidance for Revenue, Net Income, and EPS.

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EVCI Career Colleges Pink Sheets - EVCI

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DeVry Inc NYSE - DV

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The Low Road - Taking advantage of our neurobiology

Mark to Model accounting

Loss projections / expectation

Student enrollment numbers

Earnings projections

Hockey stick projections

Authority Bias

Creating anticipation of good thing

Reserve predictions in mining companies

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ironic process theory

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I've found my results for investment clients were far better here than when I had my office in 30 Rockefeller Plaza. When you're in Manhattan, it's much more difficult to go opposite the crowd."

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Washing hands drastically decreases the rate of infections

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Using a written checklist for investing

as mandated by the FAA for pilots reduces by at least 30 the number IQ points required for successful investing.

-- Mohnish Pabrai, 2009

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Checklist - New Highs (Dealing with Irrational Exhuberance)

Business QuestionsHas there been a fundamental change in the business?

Has there been a fundamental change in business conditions?Or is this a re-rating of the stock?What is the downside from current price?

What is the upside from the current price?What is my time horizon?

Can I find a better opportunity?If not, is it because I am being lazy?

Pyschological factorsHow powerfully is the endowment effect acting on me?

Have I made public statements to associate me with the stock?Does holding the investment enable me to derive non-pecuniary benefits?

Am I substituting critical thinking for the comfortable company of other investors?

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Value Investing is the art of using the neocortex to invest in that part of human progress that is real.

Approaches to investment whereby we become subject to the machinations of the reptilian brain are not value investing.

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France Population density1936

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France Population density1999

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CEO / Portfolio ManagerAquamarine Capital Management44/46 BahnhofstrasseZürich 8001, [email protected]