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8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
1/51
Ed}rqdi Ida? Gbdx~ Mqcr`g}ne Zcr}gpbz} Jgned
Zce`jdn ^crNBMD) JDDZ
D{qni 8,0) Abnone`
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
2/51
@bebqdi Nehcqld}nce@bebqdi Nehcqld}nce
Nl{dj}zNl{dj}z
Mnzdz}bq Qbinbh Mnzdz}bq Qbinbh
Dmd{}d}nce z}qd}b`nbzDmd{}d}nce z}qd}b`nbz
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
3/51
]gb dqbd gn} a~mqcr`g} nejirmbz^reede [qcxnejb)@rn gcr [qcxnejb)@rde`wn [qcxnejb)Zcr}g {dq}z ch Jgce`tne` dem
Znjgrde% Mqcr`g}ecp nz mbxbic{ne`ne}c }gb Zcr}gpbz}ch Grede [qcxnejb
Jgce`tne`
@rn gcr
@rde`wn^reede
Grede
In`g}
Lcmbqd}b
Zbxbqb
Bw}qblb zbxbqb
Mqcr`g} Ib`bem
Znjgrde
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
4/51
Ec Nembw In`g} Lcmbqd}b Zbxbqb Pcqz}
4 Jce}nercrz md~z pn}gcr} dxdnidaib {qbjn{n}d}ncemrqne` jqc{ `qcpne` zbdzce
4;u1; 14u:; :4u=2 5=2
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: Dqnmn}~ nembw 4%;u;%8; ;%8;u;%=; ;%=;u;%1;
;%1;= Daecqldin}~ ch qnxbq mnzjgdq`b '". ,4;u,=; ,=;u,2; ,2;u,8; 9,8;
2 Daecqldin}~ ch qbzbqxcnq pd}bq gcimne` jd{djn}~ '". ,4;u,:; ,:;u,=; ,=;u,2; 9,2;
8 Pd}bq zgcq}d`b ne {dmm~ hnbim '". 2u4; 4;u1; 1;u:; 5:;
0 Pd}bq zgcq}d`b ne qdnehbm dqbdz '". 2u1; 1;u:; :;u=; 5=;
7 Dqbd jcxbqbm pn}g jqc{ ~nbim qbmrj}nce a~ &4;" 2u1; 1;u:; :;u=; 5=;
> Dqbd dhhbj}bm pn}g jqc{ ~nbim qbmrj}nce a~ &:;" :u42 42u12 12u:; 5:2
4;[c{rid}nce zrhhbqbm hqcl
mqnefne` pd}bq zgcq}d`b '".Grlde abne` ;%2u2 2u0%2 0%2u4; 54;
inxbz}cjf 4u2 2u4; 4;u1; 51;
44 Rqade pd}bq zr{{i~ zgcq}d`b '". 2u4; 4;u1; 1;u:; :;
Mqcr`g} Ne}bezn}~ Jidzznhnjd}nce
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Ibzz zecp ne ]nab}{id}bdr dem pdql
pne}bq jdrzbzmqcr`g} ne Znjgrde)Ld _gbe`hbe`)Znjgrde Jinld}b Jbe}bq
Grlde dj}nxn}nbz nemrjbm)zrjg dz mbhcqbz}d}nce){ide}ne` ch Brjdi~{}rz dem
qraabq }qbb pgnjg dazcqarembq,`crem pd}bq
Bi Enec bhhbj} ,Pde` Onezce`)Ide gcr Lb}bcqcic`njdi Nez}n}r}b) JLD
Gn`g ]bl{bqd}rqb)ibzz {qbjn{n}d}nce
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
6/51
Qbm zcni ) jgdqdj}bqnzbm a~ }njf{qc{bq}~) gn`g djnm {ccq dnq{bqlbdanin}~ dem pbdf pd}bq gcimne`jd{djn}~
Inlbz}ceb ) ldnei~ ne @rnzgcr[qcxnejb) jgdqdj}bqnzbm a~ pbdf pd}bqgcimne` jd{djn}~
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Ldq% 17) 1;4;
Ldq% 14) 1;4;
Ldq% 48) 1;4;
Ldq% 4;) 1;4;
Hba% 17) 1;4;
bw}qblb
Zbxbqb
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In`g}
Ec
Bw}qblb
Zbxbqb
Lcmbqd}b
In`g}
Ec
Ldq% 17) 1;4;Ldq% 14) 1;4;
Ldq% 48) 1;4;
Ldq% 4;) 1;4;
Hba% 17) 1;4;
Ldq% 17) 1;4;
Ldq% 14) 1;4;Ldq% 48) 1;4;
Ldq% 4;) 1;4;
Hba% 17) 1;4;
Bw}qblb
Zbxbqb
Lcmbqd}b
In`g}
Ec
Ldq% 17) 1;4;
Ldq% 14) 1;4;
Ldq% 48) 1;4;
Ldq% 4;) 1;4;
Hba% 17) 1;4;
Bw}qblb
Zbxbqb
Lcmbqd}bIn`g}
Ec
Ldq% 17) 1;4;
Ldq% 14) 1;4;
Ldq% 48) 1;4;
Ldq% 4;) 1;4;
Hba% 17) 1;4;
Bw}qblb
Zbxbqb
Lcmbqd}b
In`g}
Ec
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
8/51
^reede Mqcr`g} dhhbj}bm {c{rid}nce? &7 lniincez
Hccm zgcq}d`b {c{rid}nce? &0lniincez
Dqbd jcxbqbm? &:1%17 lniincelr ) 70" ch }c}di jqc{ dqbd%Cxbq 4=%24 lniince lr pn}g jqc{~nbim qbmrjbm a~ cxbq 7;"%
Cxbq 4= lniince lr ch bjceclnj}qbbz ch hqrn}) }bd) lcqrzdiad)
qraabq) jchhbb gdz abbe jcxbqbm)djjcre}ne` hcq cxbq 7;" ch }c}didqbd%
Bz}nld}bm iczz ch z{qne`,zrllbq gdqxbz}bm jqc{ ~nbim nzdqcrem 8;"
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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@rn gcr
Mqcr`g}dhhbj}bm{c{rid}nce?40%1= lniincez
[c{rid}nce nemqnefne` pd}bqzr{{i~ zgcq}d`b?2%04 lniincez
Jqc{ dqbddhhbj}bm a~mqcr`g}? 77;%=
}gcrzdem gd
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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@rde`wn
Mqcr`g} dhhbj}bm{c{rid}nce? 0%71lniincez
[c{rid}nce ne mqnefne`pd}bq zr{{i~ zgcq}d`b?1%4> lniincez
Jqc{ dqbd jcxbqbm a~mqcr`g}? 08:%>7}gcrzdem gd
Jqc{ dqbd dhhbj}bm a~mqcr`g}? =08%;2}gcrzdem gd%
Jqc{ dqbd pn}g ~nbimqbmrjbm a~ 7;"?
:7%>1 }gcrzdem gd%
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Znjgrde
Mqcr`g} dhhbj}bm{c{rid}nce? 7%177lniincez
[c{rid}nce nemqnefne` pd}bqzr{{i~ zgcq}d`b?4%7=> lniincez
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
12/51
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
13/51
]gb mqcr`g} mbxbic{ ne}c }gb pbz} ch Grede[qcxnejb) }gb qdnehdii ne }gb hnqz} }pc lce}gzch 1;4; mbjqbdzbm a~ 0="% Hqcl Cj}% 4 }cMbj% :4) 1;;>) }gb {qcxnejndi dxbqd`b
qdnehdii nz 48; ll) 11" ibzz }gde }gd} ne}gb zdlb {bqncm%
Jrqqbe}i~) }gb }c}di pd}bq z}cqd`b ne Grede
[qcxnejb nz 8%4 aniice jranj lb}bqz) :4" ch ecqldi dlcre} ch pd}bq z}cqd`b% 87; zldiiqbzbqxcnqz) 18;;; {cemz dem =2; qnxbqz `c}mqnbm%
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
14/51
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Ne bw}qblb zn}rd}nce) ceb ch {czznaib c{}ncez nz }cqbicjd}b }gb negdan}de}z ne }gb mqcr`g} gn} dqbdz' Ldqjg :4% Ebpz hqcl Z}d}b Jcrejni) [QJ.
Nh }gbqb nz ec bhhbj}nxb {qbjn{n}d}nce abhcqb }gblnmmib }be md~z ch Ld~) dii pd}bq ne qbzbqxcnqz pniiab rzbm cr} ne ^rede [qcxnejb) ne zrjg jdzb)qbicjd}nce ch negdan}de}z pnii ab }dfbe ne}c
jceznmbqd}nce' Chhnjb ch Z}d}b Hiccm Jce}qci dem Mqcr`g} Qbinbh Gbdmtrdq}bqz) LPQ) [QJ.
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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N l { d j
} z
Inxne`
Nemrz}q~
D`qnjri}rqb
Hnzgbq~
Zgn{{ne`
]crqnzl
Hcqbz}q~
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Ldqjg) 1;4;
Ldqjg) 1;;>
Gce`gb Qnxbq) ^reede
4) Nl{dj}z ce Pd}bq Qbzcrqjbz
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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4) Nl{dj}z ce Pd}bq Qbzcrqjbz
Ldqjg) 1;4; Ldqjg) 1;;>
Tne`gdn Idfb) Wnde`~re Jcre}~) ^reede
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
19/51
Hqcl idz} Cj}cabq)}gb }c}di{qbjn{n}d}nce ne^dezgde Jcre}~)^reede) nz 18%1
ll) >;" ibzz }gde}gd} ne }gb zdlb{bqncm) icjdihdqlbqz dqb pdn}ne`hcq }gb pd}bqmbinxbqbm a~ jdq
1) Nl{dj}z ce Inxne`
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
20/51
Zd{npr xniid`b) Grdwnde Jcre}~) ^reede [qcxnejb) [gc}cbm a~ Gdc}nde
1) Nl{dj}z ce Inxne`
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
22/51
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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:) Nl{dj}z ce D`qnjri}rqb:) Nl{dj}z ce D`qnjri}rqb
Dz ch Ldqjg 4;)Dz ch Ldqjg 4;)1 lniince1 lniinceinxbz}cjfinxbz}cjf rembqrembqmqnefne` pd}bqmqnefne` pd}bq
zgcq}d`b)zgcq}d`b) 8;"8;"{ide}ne` jcq{z{ide}ne` jcq{zgn} a~ mqcr`g})gn} a~ mqcr`g})}gb }c}di dqbd}gb }c}di dqbdnz dqcremnz dqcrem 4:4:lniincelniince lrlr
@rn gcr@rn gcrDz ch Ldqjg 1;)Dz ch Ldqjg 1;)mqcr`g}mqcr`g}jcxbqbm dqbd ch jcxbqbm dqbd ch jqc{z nzjqc{z nz 2%12%1lniincelniince lrlr ) ch ) ch pgnjg)pgnjg) ;%07;%07lniincelniince lrlr nznzdhhbj}bm a~dhhbj}bm a~mqcr`g}%mqcr`g}%
ZnjgrdeZnjgrdeCxbqCxbq 4;4;lniincezlniincez lrlrdqbd ch jqc{z nzdqbd ch jqc{z nzdhhbj}bm%dhhbj}bm%
@rde`wn@rde`wn =%78 lniince=%78 lniinceinxbz}cjf rembqinxbz}cjf rembqmqnefne` pd}bqmqnefne` pd}bqzgcq}d`b) cxbqzgcq}d`b) cxbq70" {ide}ne`70" {ide}ne`jqc{z nz dhhbj}bm)jqc{z nz dhhbj}bm)}gb }c}di dqbd nz}gb }c}di dqbd nzdqcremdqcrem :; lniince:; lniincelrlr ) }gb bz}nld}bm) }gb bz}nld}bmjqc{ ~nbim pniijqc{ ~nbim pniiqbmrjbm a~qbmrjbm a~ 2;")2;")hnzgbq~ demhnzgbq~ demhcqbz}q~ dhhbj}bmhcqbz}q~ dhhbj}bm}cc) }gb }c}di iczz}cc) }gb }c}di iczznz lcqbnz lcqb 47 lniince47 lniinceQLA rdeQLA rde
^reede^reede
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Enronbgb Qbzbqxcnq)Enronbgb Qbzbqxcnq)Onrice` ]cpezgn{)Onrice` ]cpezgn{)Irc{ne` Jcre}~)Irc{ne` Jcre}~)
^reede [qcxnejb)^reede [qcxnejb)
]gb cxbq ;%=]gb cxbq ;%=lniincelniince lrlr qd{b neqd{b ne}gnz jcre}~ dilcz}}gnz jcre}~ dilcz}jcl{ib}bi~jcl{ib}bi~mbz}qc~bmmbz}qc~bm
:) Nl{dj}z ce D`qnjri}rqb:) Nl{dj}z ce D`qnjri}rqb
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Mdice`}de ]cpezgn{)Mdice`}de ]cpezgn{)[de gngrd)[de gngrd) ZnjgrdeZnjgrde
Hrwne` ]cpezg{)Hrwne` ]cpezg{)Mb~de`)Mb~de`) ZnjgrdeZnjgrde ))
:) Nl{dj}z ce D`qnjri}rqb:) Nl{dj}z ce D`qnjri}rqb
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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[ d m m ~
h n bi m
Pg
b d }
P dn } n e `h cq q dn eh di i
P
dn } n e `h cq
q dn eh di i
:) Nl{dj}z ce D`qnjri}rqb:) Nl{dj}z ce D`qnjri}rqb
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Dz gn} a~ mqcr`g}) qnjb cr}{r}nz bw{bj}bm }c qbmrjb a~ 4#:ne Xnb}edl pgnjg nz }gbzbjcem idq`bz} qnjb{qcmrj}nce jcre}q~% @icadihccm {qnjb ld~ nejqbdzb' Deacrem jcezri}ne`)1;4; .6
NLH pdqene`? }gb zgdqb ch `icadi qnjb }qdmb ch ]gdnidemdem Xnb}edl nz cxbq =;") }gbqbmrj}nce ch qnjb ~nbim ld~ abd z{rq ch `icadi hccm {qnjb
Hccm {qnjb nejqbdzb
=) Nl{dj}z ce @icadi Hccm [qnjb=) Nl{dj}z ce @icadi Hccm [qnjb
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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[qcmrj}nce
Zldiibe}bq{qnzbpn}g pbdfjd{danin}~
G~mqc [cpbqG~mqc [cpbq
Zcr}gpbz} Jgned
nz }gb ldnepd}bq {cpbq`bebqd}nceqb`nce)>;"pd}bq {cpbq
z}d}nce ne@rde`wn gdz }c`nxb r{ {cpbq`bebqd}nce
Jgblnjdinemrz}q~
Pd}bq dem{cpbqzgcq}d`b jdrzb}gb {qcmrj}ncez}c{ nejgblnjdi
nemrz}q~
=) Nl{dj}z ce Nemrz}q~=) Nl{dj}z ce Nemrz}q~
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Gcq}njri}rqb?7;" ch jr} }ne` hicpbq nz hqcl^reede) 7;" ch hicpbq {ide}d}ncene ^reede gdz abbe dhhbj}bm a~mqcr`g}) ac}g }gb cr}{r} demtrdin}~ ch hicpbqz gdxb qbmrjbm%
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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dzabz}cz }nibdzabz}cz }nib {qcmrj}nce){qcmrj}nce)^reede^reede
@b}}ne` pd}bq hcq hdj}cq~)@b}}ne` pd}bq hcq hdj}cq~)^rede^rede
=) Nl{dj}z ce Nemrz}q~=) Nl{dj}z ce Nemrz}q~
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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dnq{cq} qrepd~ mdld`bmmrb }c idem zraznmbejbjdrzbm a~ rembq`qcrempd}bq ibxbi mbjqbdzb)
Frelne`) ^reede
Jgdc}ndelbeMcjf) Jgce`tne`
2) Nl{dj}z ce zgn{{ne` dem hdjnin}nbz2) Nl{dj}z ce zgn{{ne` dem hdjnin}nbz
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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8) Nl{dj}z ce ]crqnzl8) Nl{dj}z ce ]crqnzl
Zcr}gpbz} Jgned nz hdlcrzhcq n}z abdr}nhri idemzjd{b%
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Grde``rczgrGrde``rczgrPd}bqhdiiPd}bqhdii
1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4; ,,,,,,,, ;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;: ,,,,,,,, 1414141414141414
1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4; ,,,,,,,, ;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;: ,,,,,,,, 1=1=1=1=1=1=1=1=
1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4; ,,,,,,,, ;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;: ,,,,,,,, 1818181818181818
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Mce`ond~r
Qbzbqxcnq)}gb pd}bqzcrqjbz hcqPrine`~rde)_gde`ondonb)}gb hdlcrzed}rqdiidemzjd{bicjd}bm neGrede[qcxnejb
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Inonde`Inonde`
Dz pd}bq ibxbijce}nerbz }cmbjqbdzb) }gbzn`g}zbbne`ibe`}g dice`}gb Inonde`hqcl _gronde`
}c ^de`zgrcgdz abbezgcq}bebm%
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Mdmnbzgrn Pd}bqhdii) Zgnine Jcre}~) ^reede
]gb mnzjgdq`b nzdqcrem 4;" ch ecqldi dlcre}%
Abhcqb mqcr`g}
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Jcre}qnbz ne }gb icpbq qbdjg ch Lbfce` Qnxbqdjjrzbm Jgned jcez}qrj}nce ch mdlz dice` }gbIdejde`onde` Qnxbq) }gb r{{bq qbdjg ch Lbfce`
Qnxbq) ar} dj}rdii~) }gb dqbd ch Lbfce` Qnxbqpd}bqzgbm pn}gne Jgned acremdq~ nz }dfne` r{1:%2" ch }c}di dqbd) }gb qnxbq mnzjgdq`b nz }dfne` r{4:%2") hrq}gbqlcqb) }gb mbxbic{lbe} ch g~mqc{cpbq mcbz ec} dhhbj} }gb mnzjgdq`b% ]gb zbjqb}dq~`bebqdi ch Lbfce` Qnxbq lded`blbe} jclln}}bbd`qbbm pn}g }gd} }gb mqcr`g} nz jdrzbm a~ ibzzqdnehdii dem gn`g }bl{bqd}rqb%
0) Nl{dj}z ce ne}bqed}ncedi qbid}ncezgn{0) Nl{dj}z ce ne}bqed}ncedi qbid}ncezgn{
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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HHcq mqnefne` pd}bqcq mqnefne` pd}bq
4;4;
[dewnde jcre}~) @r gcr)4;;;;; hdqlbqz qb}rqe }c
gclb }c jclad} pn}g mqcr`g}
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Lnin}dq~ hcqjb ne dj}nce
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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LbmndLbmnd
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Mced}nce hqcl dii zcjndiibxbiz%
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Jdxb bw{icqd}nce) Iccfne` hcq mqnefne` pd}bq[
d ri )h q cl H q de
j b )g
bi
{n e ` } c
bw {i cq b
j dx
bh cq
m q n ef n e `p
d } bq
n e @ rn zg
c r
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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]bjgentrbz }c nejqbdzb qdnehdii
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Dii lbdzrqbz dmc{}bm dqb ch blbq`bej~qbz{cezb% Ne }gb xnbp ch ice` }bql) hciicpne`
lbdzrqbz zgcrim ab }dfb ne}c jceznmbqd}nce dzdmd{}d}nce z}qd}b`nbz?
Hdjnin}nbz arnimne`
Nezrqdejbz Nlln`qd}nce
Dmd{}d}nce z}qd}b`nbzDmd{}d}nce z}qd}b`nbz
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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Ec lcmbi nz ab}}bq }gde }gb ed}rqdi ida%
Dii {gc}cz) {nj}rqbz) nehcqld}nce dqb hqcl ne}bqeb}) {ibdzb mc ec} trc}b$
8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China
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]gdef ~cr hcq ~crq d}}be}ncez$