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Natural Disasters and Energy: New Future of Power Plants
Yoshiaki Oka, ProfessorCooperative Major in Nuclear Energy
Graduate School of Advanced Science and EngineeringWaseda University
The 10th Japan‐Korea Millennium Forum, November 9‐10, 2011, Yonsei University, Incheon, Korea
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Outline
• March 11 Earthquake and Tsunami• Fukushima nuclear power plant accident• Energy sources• Global warming• Renewables and new energy development• Nuclear energy• Summary
2
Propagation of the earthquakeUnderestimated magnitude, source area and slip length
Initiation from B, then propagated westwards to area A, and further to the North and South down to IbarakiCoal‐fired and Nuclear power plants (NPPs) were shut down. Loss of external power of NPPs.
[SOURCE] Gov. Report to the IAEA, June2011 and A.Omoto ANS Annual Mtg. June 27,20113
Tsunami and wave height5 to 8 meters upthrust on a 180‐km wide seabed resulted in a major tsunami
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2011_Tohoku_earthquake_observed_tsunami_heights_en.png4
Sendai port after tsunamiBlack smoke coming from the Nippon oil refinery
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami 5
Fallen power poles in Ishinomaki
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fallen_power_poles_in_Ishinomaki.jpg 6
Earthquake and tsunami (summary)
• Earthquake : Magnitude; 9, Duration; 6minutes, Depth; 32km, Maximum intensity; 9, Peak acceleration; 3.0G
• Tsunami height; up to 40.5m• Casualties: 15,824 deaths, 5,942 injured, 3,847 people missing
• Displaced people by Tsunami: over 300,000• Evacuated residents within 20km of Fukushima nuclear power plants; 140,000
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami 7
Electricity; Rolling blackoutSeveral nuclear and coal‐fired power plants went offline after the earthquake. Rolling blackout of TEPCO for 2 weeks from March, 11, 2011.Nuclear power plants gradually went off line for periodic inspection and failed to obtain approval of restart from the local government. (42 units off line among 53 in Japan in October 2011)Demand control will continue in the coming winter in TEPCO, Kansai and Tohoku EP.Oil and gas import increases and electricity bill will increase.
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami
No unified national power grid in Japan due to the geologic divide between 50Hz and 60 Hz system.
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Oil and gas
Cosmo Oil explosion, Chiba, Tokyo‐bay
Oil refineries were set on fire by the quake.
Oil tanks damaged by tsunami and flowed into the bay.Source of big fire of Kesen‐numa,major fishing port
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami
http://www.ristex.jp/public/earthquake/project.html 9
14 NPPs along the coastal line affected by Tsunami
[SOURCE] A.Omoto ANS Annual Mtg. June 27,201110
[SOURCE]A.Omoto ANS Annual Mtg. June 27,2011
Fukushima site 1 nuclear power plantsdamaged by tsunami
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Fukushima site 1 nuclear power plantsdamaged by tsunami and hydrogen explosion
[SOURCE]A.Omoto ANS Annual Mtg. June 27,201112
Reactor building4F; Refueling floor
Unit 1,3,4:Hydrogen explosion
ContainmentUnit 1,2,3:Leakage
Reactor pressure vesselUnit 1,2,3:Bottom leakage
Spent fuel pool: low water level
Fukushima site 1, unit 1,2,3,4 Station blackout and Loss of ultimate heat sink: Loss of cooling of residual heat
resulted in core meltdown accidents and hydrogen explosion.
BWR (Boiling water reactor) 13
Land contamination and evacuationEvacuated residents within 20km; 140,000
Source:http://radioactivity.mext.go.jp/ja/1750/2011/09/1750_092018.pdf,http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Towns_evacuated_around_Fukushima_on_April_11th,_2011.png 14
Socio‐economic impact of the Chernobyl nuclear accident(Chernobyl forum report 2003‐2005); Should be minimized in Fukushima
• Resettlement and limitations on agricultural production have a negative impact on the economy of the affected regions. (330,000 people relocated, 116,000 of them evacuated immediately.)
• Resettlement was a deeply traumatic experience. Many are unemployed and have little control over their own lives. Some older resettlers may never adjust.
• A large proportion of skilled, educated and entrepreneurial people have also left the region, hampering the chances for economic recovery and raising the risk of poverty. The percentage of elderly individuals is abnormally high.
• The largest impact on individuals is “the mental health impact.” Psychological distress and its aftermath has had a profound impact on individual and community behavior. Associated with these perceptions is an exaggerated sense of the dangers to health of exposure to radiation.
• Anxiety over the effects of radiation on health shows no sign of diminishing. Indeed, it may even be spreading beyond the affected areas into a wide section of the population. Parents may be transferring their anxiety to their children through excessively protective care.
• A sense of victimization and dependency created by government social protection policies is widespread in the affected areas.
Source:http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Booklets/Chernobyl/chernobyl.pdf pp34‐37
Chernobyl forum: IAEA, WHO, UNDP, FAO, UNEP, UN‐OCHA, UNSCEAR, WB, Belarus, Russia, Ukraine
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KnownAdverse Effects
No knownAdverse Effects
100 mSv
A
C
B
Pote
ntia
l Dam
age
to H
ealth
Radiation Dose [mSv]
2.4 mSvAverage Yearly Exposurefrom Natural Causes
Dose Causing ObservableAdverse Health Effects
ReliableDatabase
Area ofControversy
Health effect of low level radiation• Acute health effect
occurs above threshold dose.
• No acute health effect observed at Fukushima including TEPCO workers.
• Latent health effect is not observed at low dose, below 100mSv.
• Assumed no threshold linear hypothesis; Source of fear of radiation and big socio‐economic problems.
• Latent effect will be studied for long period, but maybe and hopefully no latent effect will be observed in Fukushima because of the successful evacuation.
• It is difficult to clarify the health effect of human being at low dose from the present science. 16
What’s necessary
• Decontamination and economic restoration of Fukushima prefecture
• Improvement of regulatory system• Design improvement coping with core meltdown accident and mitigating its environmental effects
• Comparative study of health effects at low dose of various risks such as radiation, chemical products, etc. in collaboration of international organizations
• Separation of regulation and promotion• Share of lessons learned in the world• Never, ever again anywhere in the world
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Energy sources
18
Fossil fuels are major primary energy source since industrial revolution for 250 years
Source; http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 19
Source; http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 20
Source; http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 21
Japan and Korea depends on imported energy sourceseven France imports 49%.
Source; http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html
US energy (basic) policy : Less than 25% of import dependence for national security
22
Source; http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 23
Primary energy source (summary)• Energy is essential to life and activities of mankind.• Energy demand will grow with the development of countries in the
21st century.• Energy security is important for the security of the nation.• Wars, battles for oils and gas occurred and occurring in the world.
Ex. 2nd world war, Middle east, Africa. (No war after 2nd world war in east Asia is the reason of its economic development.)
• Oil, gas, and coal are major source of energy after industrial revolution. Even France it is 56% of primary energy.
• Japan and Korea heavily depend on imported primary energy source.
• Oil import from middle east increase again in Japan. May suffer “double‐punches” from increase of oil price and decrease of yen (exchange rate) in the future.
24
Global warming
25
Source; http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 26
The green bars show uncertainty estimates
Source: Wikipedia;Global warming27
Temperature rise in 2000‐09 Compared to average temperatures recorded between 1951 and 1980
The most extreme warming, shown in red, was in the Arctic
Source: Wikipedia;Global warming28
Source: Wikipedia;Global warming29
CO2 emissions in the world
• China:20%, USA;20%, Japan;4%, Korea; 1.7%• Per person; USA;18.4t/p, Japan;9t/p
China;5t/p, India; 1.25t/p• Emission of China and India will increase• Kyoto protocol covers only 28% in the world.
30
CO2 Emission in Japan
direct end user• Power generation 32%• Industrial process 28% 34%• Transportation 19% 19%• Household 5% 14%• Office 19%• Energy conversion 2% 6%
31
Source; http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 32
Renewables and new energy development
33
Development of renewables/new energy technologies in Japan
• Sunshine project (1974‐1992): Coal, geothermal, hydrogen energy
• Moonlight project (1978‐1993); Energy conservation• New sunshine project (1993‐2000): Coal gasification, geothermal, photovoltaic, hydrogen energy, wind, fuel cell, battery
• NEDO project (2001‐);• Solar photovoltaic, wind, biomass etc.• Smart grid
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Storage battery
Supply & demand control
Concentrated power supply
Transmission and distribution network Consumer
Distributed power supply
Source; http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 35
Nuclear energy
36
Source; http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/publication/pamphlet/nuclear/zumenshu/index.html 37
US electricity production costNuclear is the cheapest after depreciation of the construction cost
Source: http://world‐nuclear.org/info/inf02.html38
Source:T. Nagasaki 中国原子力最新動向、日中科学技術交流協会 December 6, 2010
New nuclear power programs continue in the worldChina, Korea, Finland, France, USA, South Africa, UAE, India, Vietnam
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Lithuania etc.
Nuclear power program in China
39
Advanced nuclear power plants strengthening the safety against loss of power and
core melt down accident
40
Advanced nuclear power plant, AP1000 (Westinghouse/ Toshiba)
Strengthening the safety against loss of AC power and core melt down accident
Melted core
Source: International summer school of nuclear power plants, Tokai‐mura, August 2009
Passive containment cooling
In vessel retention of melted core
41
In-Vessel Molten Core Retention by the External Reactor Vessel Cooling
Korean Nuclear Power Plant, KPR1400Severe Accident Mitigation Features
Source: Sang-Baik Kim The International Summer School of NPPs, July 28- Aug. 5, 2009, University of Tokyo, Tokai-mura, Japan
Reactor Vessel
Molten core
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Summary
• Very sorry for Fukushima accident.• Protect/prepare against natural disasters.• Fukushima NPPs are going to be stabilized.• Decontamination and economic restoration of Fukushima prefecture are the most important in Japan.
• Prevent socio‐ psychological effect of low level radiation.
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• Oil, gas and coal are major primary energy for 250 years. It will not change soon.
• Global warming is the challenge in 21st century.• Improvement and development of advanced power technologies as well as energy savings and improvement of efficiencies are important for meeting the challenges.
• Nuclear power will/should play its role.
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Coastal Industrial Complexes: Risks and Anti‐seismic Measures‐ Blind Spots in Disaster Prevention for Earthquakes with a Tokyo
Metropolitan Epicenteropinion of Professor M. Hamada of Waseda university
Source: M.Hamada http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/adv/wol/dy/opinion/earthquake_110613.htm
Industrial complexes built on reclaimed landsNo anti‐liquefaction measures for many reclaimed lands (constructed many years ago)Heavy oil may flow into marine waters and then spread across Tokyo Bay by wind or tidal current. The marine transportation in Tokyo Bay may be brought to a complete halt.12 LNG thermal power plants are in operation in the coastal areas along Tokyo Bay. This paralyzes the thermal energy supply following the nuclear energy supply.Power will reach a crisis situation in Tokyo metropolitan area
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Thank you
16 Waseda University professors expressed comments on “the great east Japan earthquake” at Wasedaonline; http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/adv/wol/dy/opinion/
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