Progressions – preparing year 9 and 10 students for success in NCEA L1, 2 and 3 in statistics/probability National Workshop 1 Getting connected: engaging students in learning

What are the key concepts needed to be ready to succeed in statistics and probability at

NCEA level 1?

At which curriculum level do you start to teach each idea?

NZC level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Know your students

What curriculum level are they at? What level of literacy do they have? Your planning needs to start where the

students are at and have a strategy for progression.

Many statistical and probability investigations are rich tasks appropriate for students at a range of curriculum levels.

Getting started:make data cards as

aclass

On left, write the number of your birth month.On right, write your height (guess if you don’t

know).At bottom, write the first letter of your favourite

colour.At top number of people who live in your house.

What do you notice?

Write 3 “I notice…” statements.

Write 3 “I wonder…” questions.

Important learning activities for year 9/10

statistics Developing the concept of a variable. Can do it with a

question like “how can you describe a car?” Census at school units of work for curriculum level the

students are at. PPDAC cycle including their expectation at the beginning

of each investigation. What do I think will happen? Developing concepts of inference. Physically sampling from a box. Don’t teach skills until you need it to answer a problem.

Probability key ideas Randomness (mathstatsfacilitators website)variation PPDAC cycle including recording your hunch at

the beginningExperiencing probability (play games and

investigate the probability of winning)Numerical understanding of probabilityProbability language (eg fair, equally likely,

possible)

NZC level 3

“Investigate simple situations that involve elements of chance by comparing experimental results with expectations from models of all the outcomes, acknowledging that samples vary.”

An investigation

I wonder, if I roll a hexagonal pencil, what is the probability it stops with the writing on top?

Record your hunchRoll the pencilGather results“I notice…. “What is the answer to my question? Was my hunch

correct?

Ideas for investigations What has worked for you?

Note that probability trees with fractions on the branches are now at level 7 of the curriculum.

At level 2/3/4/5 of NZC we are dealing with equally likely outcomes or observations of situations with unknown probability.

There may be some students in year 9/10 who are working at level 7 NZC.

“…the dogged pursuit of the nuts and bolts of statistical methods and data analysis takes valuable time and energy away from important skills and tools that students actually need for evaluating the many statistical arguments they encounter in their adult lives.”

Daniel Schafer