National Weather Service Water Science and Services John J. Kelly, Jr. Director, National Weather Service NOAA Science Advisory Board November 6, 2001

National Weather Service

Water Science and Services Water Science and Services

John J. Kelly, Jr.John J. Kelly, Jr.Director, National Weather Service Director, National Weather Service

NOAA Science Advisory BoardNOAA Science Advisory BoardNNovember 6, 2001ovember 6, 2001

$34

$692

$56

$445

$871

$5,600

$4,969

Disaster ImpactsDisaster Impacts

Tornado

Hail

Cold

Lightning

Heat

Flood

Hurricane

Winter Storm

Average Annual Deaths (1990-99): 502Average Annual Deaths (1990-99): 502

Average Annual Cost (1990-99): $13.1 BillionAverage Annual Cost (1990-99): $13.1 Billion

Flood

June 11, 2001

Hurricane

14

193

99

26 58

57

55Flood

Heat

$469

National Weather ServiceNational Weather ServiceHydrometeorological Service Areas Hydrometeorological Service Areas

and River Forecast Centersand River Forecast Centers

(Alaska and Hawaii also have Hydrometeorological Service Areas and share the River Forecast Center in Anchorage.)(Puerto Rice has a Hydrometeorological Service Area and is covered by the Southeast River Forecast Center.)

River Forecast Center location


National

Major River Basin

Forecast Locations

Hydrologic Service DeliveryHydrologic Service Delivery


Emphasis on Science and TechnologyEmphasis on Science and Technology

Current forecastlocations

NEXRAD Radar Grid

Forecast foreach grid cell

High Resolution Basins

Forecast foreach basin


Impacts of Recent NWS ReorganizationImpacts of Recent NWS Reorganization

Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) leads science infusion, Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) leads science infusion, data acquisition, and software engineering activities to support data acquisition, and software engineering activities to support NWS field officesNWS field offices

• Hydrologic Science and Modeling Branch provides the Hydrologic Science and Modeling Branch provides the critical focus for collaboration with the hydrologic research critical focus for collaboration with the hydrologic research communitycommunity

• OHD Director ensures hydrologic science issues are OHD Director ensures hydrologic science issues are prominent in NWS Corporate Board deliberationsprominent in NWS Corporate Board deliberations

Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services identifies Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services identifies requirements and formulates national policy to meet emerging requirements and formulates national policy to meet emerging customer needs for hydrometeorology and hydroclimate servicescustomer needs for hydrometeorology and hydroclimate services

• The Hydrologic Services Division facilitates consistent The Hydrologic Services Division facilitates consistent hydrologic warning and forecast products. hydrologic warning and forecast products.


Water Related ChallengesWater Related Challenges

1.1. Monitor and forecast the water cycleMonitor and forecast the water cycle

2.2. Improve atmosphere/land/oceanImprove atmosphere/land/oceanprediction systemsprediction systems

3.3. Translate full information content of Translate full information content of weather and climate forecasts into weather and climate forecasts into hydrologic applicationshydrologic applications

4.4. Improve hydrologic data assimilation, Improve hydrologic data assimilation, modeling, and forecastingmodeling, and forecasting

5.5. Expand access to a consistent suite of Expand access to a consistent suite of hydrologic data and productshydrologic data and products

6. Improve water resource services6. Improve water resource services


1. Monitor and Forecast Water Cycle1. Monitor and Forecast Water Cycle

The National Centers for Environmental The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) monitor and predict: Prediction (NCEP) monitor and predict: temperature, precipitation, snow, soil temperature, precipitation, snow, soil moisture, and sea-icemoisture, and sea-ice

NWS advanced dynamic models support NWS advanced dynamic models support expanded weather and climate servicesexpanded weather and climate services

NCEP issues threats assessments and NCEP issues threats assessments and drought monitor productsdrought monitor products

Click here to enlarge image


2. Improve Atmosphere/Land/Ocean 2. Improve Atmosphere/Land/Ocean Prediction SystemsPrediction Systems

NCEP/research community collaborate to:NCEP/research community collaborate to:refine model resolutionrefine model resolutionextend to global domainextend to global domainimprove ocean data assimilation techniquesimprove ocean data assimilation techniquesmore fully exploit satellite-derived datamore fully exploit satellite-derived data

OHD and NCEP are implementing land data assimilation OHD and NCEP are implementing land data assimilation systems nationally and globallysystems nationally and globally



3. Translate Information into Hydrologic 3. Translate Information into Hydrologic ApplicationsApplications

OHD and NCEP are developing probabilistic OHD and NCEP are developing probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) for input to hydrologic forecast modelsinput to hydrologic forecast models

Weather and climate model forecasts, for space Weather and climate model forecasts, for space and time scales courser than required for and time scales courser than required for hydrologic prediction, are adapted to support hydrologic prediction, are adapted to support hydrologic models, and to incorporate forecast hydrologic models, and to incorporate forecast uncertaintyuncertainty



4. Improve Hydrologic Modeling4. Improve Hydrologic Modeling

OHD is developing new generation OHD is developing new generation hydrologic data assimilation hydrologic data assimilation techniques and process-based techniques and process-based distributed models through Advanced distributed models through Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) and participation in the GEWEX and participation in the GEWEX America’s Prediction Project (GAPP)America’s Prediction Project (GAPP)

OHD led Distributed Model OHD led Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP) is Intercomparison Project (DMIP) is guiding NWS hydrologic model guiding NWS hydrologic model development and implementationdevelopment and implementation


5. Consistent National Product: 5. Consistent National Product: Significant River Flood OutlookSignificant River Flood Outlook

Sample Product


6. Improve Water Resource Services 6. Improve Water Resource Services

NCEP products are used by River Forecast Centers, NCEP products are used by River Forecast Centers, Bureau of Reclamation, National Resources Bureau of Reclamation, National Resources Conservation Service, and state and local agencies for Conservation Service, and state and local agencies for water supply managementwater supply management

NWS Western Region Hydrologic Services Division NWS Western Region Hydrologic Services Division established a position dedicated exclusively to established a position dedicated exclusively to hydroclimate serviceshydroclimate services

AHPS implementation will provide more accurate stream AHPS implementation will provide more accurate stream predictions critical to reservoir operations, flood predictions critical to reservoir operations, flood forecasts, and water supply managementforecasts, and water supply management


Issues for NOAA’s Issues for NOAA’s Science Advisory BoardScience Advisory Board

Expanded Research and Development to:Expanded Research and Development to:

1. Improve the accuracy of atmosphere/land/ 1. Improve the accuracy of atmosphere/land/ ocean monitoring and prediction systemsocean monitoring and prediction systems

2. Evolve distributed hydrologic models and 2. Evolve distributed hydrologic models and data assimilation techniquesdata assimilation techniques

3. Incorporate uncertainty information into 3. Incorporate uncertainty information into hydrologic applicationshydrologic applications

Documents

National Weather Service Water Science and Services John J. Kelly, Jr. Director, National Weather Service NOAA Science Advisory Board November 6, 2001