National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC NHC/WFO
Tropical Productsand Whats New for 2012 WFO Newport Hurricane
Awareness Seminar July 17, 2012
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC National
Hurricane Center Products
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
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Represents the probable track of the center of the tropical
cyclone. Formed by connecting circles centered on each forecast
point (at 12, 24, 36 h, etc.) Size of the circles determined so
that the actual storm position will be within the circle 2 out of 3
times, based on NHC statistics from the previous 5 hurricane
seasons It is important to remember that the center of the storm
will remain entirely within the cone only about 60 70% of the time
Interpreting the Cone
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC The cone only
depicts probable track of the center of the tropical cyclone. It
says nothing about wind impacts It says nothing about storm surge
impacts It says nothing about rainfall and/or flooding impacts It
says nothing about tornado impacts It says nothing about rip
currents and waves Interpreting the Cone
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
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NHC on Facebook & Twitter
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NCNational
Weather Service - Newport/Morehead City NC NWS Newport
Products
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Our Tropical
Webpage http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/Tropical.php
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Tropical
Impact Graphics These graphical impact graphics become available
when an area is placed under a tropical storm or hurricane watch or
warning (typically 36 to 48 hours in advance of landfall.)
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Tornado
Impact Graphics
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Inland
Flooding Impact Graphics
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 24 hours
prior to landfall projection of 115 MPH hurricane Wind Impact
Graphics
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 18 hours
prior to landfall Coastal Flooding Impact Graphics
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC On our
website under Gridded Images 7-Day public, marine & fire
weather forecasts Dozens of elements shown in graphic format:
temperature, weather, sky cover, relative humidity, wind
speed/direction, seas and many more! National Digital Forecast
Database (NDFD)
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
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Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) This product provides the
details of expected impacts in your local area. Text and graphical
products available. Graphical HLS shows threat levels for wind,
storm surge, inland flooding, and tornadoes. Overview section at
top to prevent redundancy. AGL Storm surge heights in AGL.
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 4 Surge
Referenced Above Ground
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Takes into
account actual NHC Track Forecast and statistics of NHC error
including: timing, location, intensity, and size of storm. Uses an
ensemble of SLOSH runs to create probabilistic storm surge (p-
surge) Different directions of motion Different landfall locations
Different intensities Different storm sizes Different forward
speeds Probabilisitic Storm Surge Guidance
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Available
when the NHC issues a hurricane watch or warning for the
continental US. Can be utilized to assess potential surge based on
uncertainties in forecast. Available approx. 1-2 hours after the
advisory release time Probabilisitic Storm Surge Guidance Used to
assist in generating coastal flooding impact graphics and surge
forecasts in NHC and local NWS office text products.Used to assist
in generating coastal flooding impact graphics and surge forecasts
in NHC and local NWS office text products.
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC WFO MHX began
issuing PowerPoint briefing presentations to the emergency
management community via e-mail in the Spring of 2008. Free form
presentations containing graphics and explanations of threats
associated with potential significant weather events that will
affect life and property. Initially used to support significant
severe weather outbreaks, the program was expanded to support
Tropical Operations. In 2010 the briefings were expanded to the
media. In 2011 for Irene, we began disseminating them to the
public, posing them on our Top News of the Day on the website and
on Facebook. Threat Assessment Briefings
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Contains
Information on: Hurricane Definitions and Climatology Hurricane
Hazards Local National Weather Service Products and Services
Preparing Before a Storm Threatens Evacuation Routes After the
Storm Available for download on our tropical weather web page
Hurricane Survival Guide
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC We also issue
Lots of stuff, actually! SPSs, TORs. CWF and ZFPs with tropical
terms of uncertainty. PSH after storm summary. LSRs for reports.
PNSs prior to event for preparedness info.
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC We now have a
local Facebook page to stay connected with users via social media.
This page will have all Threat Assessment Briefings, and short text
status updates. This is a great tool for the public to stay
informed, especially through mobile technology. It is also a great
way to submit reports to the NWS. Search for National Weather
Service Newport to Like us! Twitter is coming soon! Social
Media
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Two changes
for this year
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Modification Why? Why? To
resolve rounding issues associated with the conversion of units
from knots to mph. Will allow for better knot-to-MPH conversion.
Affects storms of Categories 3-5 only. Category 1 and 2 storms are
NOT affected. Important note! Important note! Since intensities are
assigned using 5-knot increments, neither storms in the historical
record nor any future storms will have their category changed as a
result of this modification. Change #1
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Tropical
Cyclone forecast cone reduced in size Forecast hour 2012 circle
radius (nm) (07-11 errors) 2011 circle radius (nm) (06-10 errors) %
Change 1236 0 245659-5% 367579-5% 489598-3% 72141144-2% 96180190-5%
120236239-1% Change #2
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
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NHC experimenting with extending track and intensity forecasts
out to 7 days NHC experimenting with extending tropical cyclone
formation forecasts out to 5 days (currently 48 hours) NHC
experimenting with the creation of track and intensity forecasts
for disturbances with a high chance of formation and the issuances
of tropical cyclone warnings prior to the formation of a cyclone.
NHC experimenting with producing a high resolution storm surge
inundation graphic. NHC and a few WFOs experimenting on a
collaborative storm surge warning product. 2012 Tropical Season
Internal Experiments
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National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Thank
you!