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Welcome to the USGS Webinar: New Science and Online Management Tools to Help Guide Action on Nutrients in Rivers in the Upper Midwest Region of the U.S., Especially in the Great Lakes Basin. Phone Line: 712-432-0900 901183# Thanks for joining the webinar, we will be starting soon. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Welcome to the USGS Webinar: New Science and Online Management Tools to Help Guide
Action on Nutrients in Rivers in the Upper Midwest Region of the U.S., Especially in the Great Lakes Basin
National Water-Quality Assessment Program
Phone Line: 712-432-0900 901183#
Thanks for joining the webinar, we will be starting soon.
All phone lines will be centrally muted during the presentation.
Please submit your questions throughout the presentation using the GoToWebinar box.
Following the presentation, we willunmute the phone lines and gothrough the submitted questions.
USGS Webinar
U.S. Geological SurveyNational Water Quality Assessment
New Science and Online Management Tools to Help Guide Action on Nutrients in Rivers in
Upper Midwest Region of the U.S., Especially in the Great Lakes Basin
Northeast
Southeast
Upper Midwest
Lower Midwest
Missouri RiverPacificNorthwest
PacificNorthwest
Northeast
Southeast
Upper Midwest
Lower Midwest
Missouri River
National Water Quality Assessment ProgramSurface Water Status and Trends Regions
Southwest
California
Use of SPARROW Models to Determine the Spatial Distribution and Sources of Nutrients
in Streams in the Upper Midwest
*[email protected] (608) 821-3867
By Dale M. Robertson* and David A. Saad
U.S. Geological Survey Wisconsin Water Science Center
Approach - SPARROW Water-Quality Model – SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes
http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/sparrow
Separates land and in-stream processes
Mass Balance Model with spatially variable deliveries. Hybrid statistical/ mechanistic process structure. Data-driven, nonlinear estimation of parameters
Fertilizers
Atmospheric Dep.
Sources
ManurePoint Sources
Monitoring DataAnnual Loads
Y variable
X variables
Predictions of mean-annual flux reflect long-term, net effects of nutrient supply and loss processes in watersheds
Once calibrated, the model has physically interpretable coefficients; model supports hypothesis testing and uncertainty estimation
Land Use
Steam/Catchment Network
Land-to-watertransport
Sources
SPARROW Mass Balance modeling approach:
Monitored loadLong-term Detrended
InstreamTransport and Decay
Upstream Flux
as
qD qI
qI
- Regress water-quality conditions (monitored load) on upstream sources and factors controlling transport
RSRi
Sii
iJjjRS
Ri
Si
N
nD
Dinnini TFTDSF
S
θθZZθθZZθZ ,;,,;,;1
,* a
Regression Equation behind the SPARROW Model Mass Balance
Load at a specific site
Flux from Upstream SPARROW Watersheds
Flux from Within a SPARROW Watershed
TransportSources Transport/DecayLand-to-WaterDelivery
Calibration Coefficients
Calibration of National model was based on using 425 sites with coinciding loads and GIS information for the Midwest Model ~900 sites;
Upper Midwest SPARROW Model Calibration One Source: 2002 Farm Fertilizer TP inputs, kg One Land-to-Water Delivery: Soil Permeability
Long-term detrended Loads for 810 sites
Calibration
Catchments based on RF1 River Network
MRB3 - SPARROW TP Model
ParameterCoefficient
unitsStandard
error P valueSourcesPoint Sources (total) fraction 1.068 0.142 0.0000Manure (confined) fraction 0.086 0.011 0.0000Manure (unconfined) fraction 0.032 0.010 0.0009Fertilizers (farm) fraction 0.029 0.004 0.0000Forest,Wetland,Scrub kg/km2/yr 14.700 0.017 0.0000Urban, Open kg/km2/yr 52.300 0.144 0.0001Land-to-Water DeliverySoil Permeability (log) cm/hr -0.652 0.064 0.0000Tiles (percentage of area) percent -1.164 0.190 0.0000Stream and Reservoir DecayStream Decay (CMS<1.4) m/yr 0.198 0.072 0.0064Stream Decay (1.4< CMS < 2.3) m/yr 0.298 0.100 0.0029Reservoir Decay m/yr 4.837 1.118 0.0000RMSE 0.493Adj R2 0.927Yld R2 0.729N 810
Parameter values
Robertson and Saad, 2011
Distribution in Incremental Phosphorus Yields
Total Phosphorus Yields(kg km-2)0 – 1213 - 1718 - 2525 - 3334 - 4142 - 5152 - 6465 - 8384 - 114115 - 10001001 – 2,980
Superior
Huron
Mic
higa
n
Erie
Ontario
Total Phosphorus Yields(kg km-2)0 – 1213 - 1718 - 2525 - 3334 - 4142 - 5152 - 6465 - 8384 - 114115 - 10001001 – 2,980
Superior
Huron
Mic
higa
n
Erie
Ontario
Distribution in Incremental Phosphorus Yields
Robertson and Saad, 2011
Regional Sparrow Models
1. National Link
http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/sparrow/mrb/
2. Regional Link
http://wi.water.usgs.gov/rna/9km30/index.html
Methods to demonstrate results and help guide decisions
1. Decision Support System Scientists/Managers – Capable of using to visualize SPARROW output and run various scenarios.
Booth et al., 2011
http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/sparrow/dss/
Methods to demonstrate results and help guide decisions
2. SPARROW Mapper – Easy and simple way to get SPARROW results, especially by hydrologic and political boundaries.
http://wim.usgs.gov/Sparrow/SparrowMapper.html#
Future SPARROW Modeling in the Upper Midwest
1. 2002 Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin
2. 2002 NHD-Plus MRB3 Models
3. Regularly Updated SPARROW Models
How can I get more information?
SPARROW Information: http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/sparrow/
New Regional Models: http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/sparrow/mrb/
MRB3 and Mississippi Basin Models: http://wi.water.usgs.gov/rna/9km30/index.html
Decision Support Systemhttp://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/sparrow/dss/
MRB3 SPARROW Mapper http://wim.usgs.gov/Sparrow/SparrowMapper.html#
Contacts:Dale Robertson ([email protected])Dave Saad ([email protected])Steve Preston ([email protected])