National Urban Transformation Training Urban Trends

J.N. Manokaran, TOPIC <[email protected]>

National Urban Transformation TrainingUrban Trends

Rev. Dr. J.N. Manokaran,Managing DirectorTOPIC-India


National Urban Transformation Training- Urban Trends

Global crisis Market melt down New American president Terrorism

WORLD IS HOT, FLAT AND CROWDED Energy crisis and Environment



World Densest cities: The list is: 1 Mumbai (29650 per sq. km); 2 Kolkata (29650); 3 Karachi (18900); 4 Lagos (18150); 5. Shenzhen (17150); 6. Seoul (16700); 7. Taipei (15200); 8. Chennai (14350); 9. Bagata (13500); 10. Shangai (13400); 11. Lima (11750)’ 12. Beijing (11500); 13 Delhi (11050); 14. Kinsaha (10650); 15. Manila (10550) 16. Tehran (10550) 17. Jakarta (10500) 18. Tianjin (10500); 19. Bangalore (10100) 20. Ho Chi Minh (9450).


Indian cities



Trend 1: Humanity moving to cities, towns:

Half of world’s people will live in urban areas 70 per cent will be city dwellers by 2050 there

will be 27 ‘megacities’ with at least 10 million population by mid century compared to 19 today

Half the urban growth will be in the many smaller cities with less than 500000 people.

The population is also projected to increase from 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion by 2050.



There were 50.3 million urban households in the country in 2000; this rose to 61.5 million in 2005.

Six metros: Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Kolkata, Bangalore and Hyderabad

Eight mini-metros, Ludhiana, Bhubaneswar, Pune, Kochi, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, Patna and Lucknow.



Tamil Nadu the most urbanised State:

44 per cent of people of Tamil Nadu were living in urban areas.



Bangalored or Gangtoked? 1. Leaders: Bangalore - Bangalore, National Capital

Region of Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Pune, Chennai and Kolkata.

2. The Challengers: Ahmedabad, Bhuvaneswar, Chandigarh, Chombatore, Indore, Jaipur, Kochi, Lucknow, Madurai, Mangalore, Nagpur, Thiruvananthapuram, Tiruchirapalli, Vadodara, and Vishakapatnam.

3. The followers: Aurangabad, Bhopal, Goa, Gwalior, Hubli-Dharwad, Kanpur, Mysore, Nashik, Pondicherry, Salem, Surat, Vijayawada, and Varanasi.

4. The Aspirants: Allahabad, Dehradun, Durgapur, Gangtok, Guwahati, Ludhiana, Patna, Raipur, Ranchi, Shimla, Siliguri, and Srinagar.



India’s Top 25 emerging markets: Kannur, kerala; Kolhapur, Maharashtra; Thirissur, Kerala; Erode, Tamil Nadu; Puducherry; Alappuzha, Kerala; Patiala, Punjab; Ahmednagar, Maharashtra; Sangli, Maharashtra; Kanyakumari, Tamil Nadu; Kollam, Kerala; Gurudaspur; Punjab; Sangrur, Punjab; Panipat, Haryana; Yamunanagar, Haryana; Ambala, Haryana; Shimoga, Karnataka; Rohtak, Haryana; Palakkad, Kerala; Kottayam, Kerala; Karnal, Haryana; Shimla, Himachal Pradesh; Rupnagar, Punjab; Theni, Tamil Nadu; and Namakkal, Tamil Nadu.



Best Cities for Business: The top cities are: 1. Mumbai, 2. Bangalore, 3. Delhi, 4. Chennai, 5. Hyderabad, 6. Kolkata, 7. Ahmedabad, 8. Pune, (called Mega cities) 9. Surat and 10. Kanpur, 11. Jaipur, 12. Lucknow, 13. Nagpur, 14. Bhopal, 15. Coimbatore, (Called Boom towns) 16. Faridabad, 17. Amritsar, 18. Ludhiana, 19. Chandigarh, and 20. Jalandhar. (Called Niche cities) (Business Today, 7 September 2008, p. 70-120)



50 cities seen as hub of retail space boom: The top 15 cities in the list will contribute more than 80 per cent of the total national retail business by 2008. Delhi-NCR and Mumbai belong to the “maturing” category.

“Transitional cities” include Bangalore, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune, Chennai and Ahmedabad.

Chandigarh, Jaipur, Ludhiana, Lucknow, Kochi, Surat and Vadodara belong to the third category of “high-growth cities”.

“Emerging cities” — Ludiana, Coching, Nagpur, Indore, Nasik, Bhubaneshwar, Vizag, Coimbatore, Mangalore, Mysore and Thiruvananthapuram —The category also includes tourist destinations like Amritsar, Agra and Goa.

Cities where both income levels and corporate activities are limited — Patna, Bhopal, Meerut, Asansol, Varanasi, Kolhapur and Sonepat — are termed as “nascent”.



Response Cities are New Mission Frontiers Pastors, missionaries, church

planters moving into cities New biblical understanding about

cities



Trend 2: Disparity in the cities increasing Hex and the city: According to the UN report on

State of the World’s Cities, 2008-2009 Indian cities will witness rising levels of inequality

Rich earn four times more than the poorest. One of every three people in cities live in slums. Poor - 200000 ragpickers clean up 20 per cent of

the 10000 tonnes of garbage in Delhi – 1 lakh pavement dwellers in Mumbai – Two third of the population lives in slums.



Response Slums increasing Unemployed poor increasing

White Tiger? How many read this book?

Holistic Missions: Self Help Groups, Community Colleges, Micro-finances



Trend 3: Migration an important aspect Human Highways: The 2001 Census 9 million migrated from Uttar Pradesh, 5.5 million migrated from

Bihar. In the State of Maharastra, UP and Bihar migrants are 5 million

of the total population of 96.9 million. In Mumbai (14 million), 4 million are migrants from UP and Bihar Child labour migrants: Of all migrants in Mumbai city, 22 per

cent are child labourers. (The Week 14 January 2007, p.6) Delhi (13 million), where UP-Bihar migrants are 3.8 million. Punjab (24 million) -4 million UP-Bihar migrants there. Assam- (26 million) - 300000 from UP-Bihar have migrated

there. 100000 UP-Bihar migrants in Karnataka (52 million) In Bangalore only 34%of the city’s 6 million is Kannadigas.



Response Reaching Migrants – families Reaching students in the hostels Reaching other language groups in

the city

Models – Nepalis, Sindhis etc.



Trend 4: Direction of migration keeps changing

Migration to city from south falling: The declining number of south Indian migrants

into Mumbai city is visible in all places like: Antop Hill, Matunga, Chembur, Mulund and Dombivli .

Southern migrants have been replaced by migrants from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar who are making their way to Mumbai in ever-increasing numbers, propelled by the support system provided by friends and relatives already in the city.



Response Understand the winds of change in

migration pattern Move where people move

Example: Orissa persecution – 5000 people moved into Ernakulam. Plant Oriya church in Ernakulam



Trend 5: Children are vulnerable in cities

Street kids -25000 child bonded labour in Mumbai

Elite kids - 10-18 years is vulnerable to mental health disorder AIIMS study

Urban children not getting enough sleep

Training emotional gun on parents – suicide for not purchasing new dress, etc



Response

New Strategies for reaching children Camps, Games Internet based outreach material Magazines, books, cartoons



Trend 6: Teenagers and Young are rudderless

Young - 340 million (13-35 age) 17 per cent of the 1.4 million teenage

abortions that take place every year in the developing countries happen in India. More specifically, of the approximately 2.45 lakh teenage abortions reported in India every year, 36700 happen in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Bangalore.



Response

New youth strategies. How do you understand modern and post modern youth?

Chetan Bhagat books?????

Reaching Post modern youth Reaching Unemployed youth



Trend 7: Women are oppressed in the city

Women – crime against women 540 rapes in 2004, 640 in 2005 in Delhi Dowry deaths – urban phenomenon -50 % University students in Delhi favour dowry - Domestic violence



Response

Women ministries? New Initiatives? New tools?

Marrying Anita – Anita Jain????????



Trend 8: Family in crisis in the city Divorces – 2 divorces for every 5 marriages in Chennai Live-in-relationships Extra Marital affairs - 12% of married couples below

30 years indulge in extramarital affair a high 35 per cent being open to an office romance A third surveyed saw no harm in romancing a married

colleague, while 44% - an affair as strategic move to climb the corporate ladder.

Gays/Lesbianism/AIDS/HIV - 5.1 million people affected Working parents have just 30 minutes for kids in India



In India, men unable to keep pace with women’s changing role: Four out of five Indian men said they have been part of a group that has made lewd comments to women. That’s according to a recent Hindustan Times survey of 500 men in the age of 20 to 45 from six India’s largest cities. Nearly half the men surveyed felt women at a pub are ‘asking for trouble’. Around 60% of them preferred stay-at-home wives.

For every five men, there is one woman who works in an income-generating activity.



Response Family counselling Premarital counselling

Chennai Transformation Network – Family Track Model



Trend 9: Economic growth and more jobs Unemployment in major cities declines:

survey: Here are some highlights of the 61st National Sample Survey. The unemployment rate has declined from 4.4% to 3.4% in Class I cities of India. Class I cities have population over one million, Class II – population between 50000 and 1 million, Class III with less than 50000. The unemployment rate in rural India stands at 2.1 for males and 3.1 for females.



Response Market economy and money

economy has two different paradigms

Inflation Global Boom and Global Gloom



Trend 10: Ideology politics to Identity politics

Closure of industries – no trade unions

Slum lords Sons of soil Right wing



Response Mumbai Assam Bangalore

Unrest, violence



Trend 11: New Urban Spirituality New kind of spirituality Increase in spiritual quest 95% believe in God. 89%

believe in the power of prayer Top five spiritual idols are:

Vinayaka, Shiva, Krishna, Sai Baba and Jesus.



Response Youngsters are more open to

spiritual things – but how do they define spirituality

New strategies, tools needed



Trend 12: Postmodernism gaining ground

Post modernism – compatible with Hindutva

Modernism is being replaced by Postmodernism



Response Using Modernism tools to

Postmodernism society will be a failure

What are Postmodern tools for evangelism?



Trend 13: Crisis of urban identity Identity self – preservation –

caste, culture and language Identity in free market

economy- consumerism – capacity to consume

Not the capacity to contribute but the capacity to consume



Response Should capacity to consume

determine a person’s worth and identity?

What are the alternatives? How should that be communicated?



Trend 14: Lifestyle diseases 'Indian workforce unhealthy': 47% of the workforce overweight 27% were suffering from hypertension 10% were also found to be diabetic. (35

million diabetic in India) 50 per cent of Delhi adults are obese Stress and Suicides: Bangalore is

suicide capital: Suicides kill more people than war every

year



Response Eye camps…etc. Good to reach

urban poor “Fitness Camps”, “Diet Camps”,

“Heart diseases check up camps”… Free Gyms in churches for low

middle class young people?



Trend 15: Health hazard Cities are vulnerable – Dengue,

Chikangunya Pollution -12% Hyderabad city

drinks water -excess uranium Air pollution, Noise pollution and

water pollution



Response Can church be a model? Environment friendly strategies? Water Harvesting in Chennai?



Trend 16: Technology invades the city Media – FM radio, Internet….. 38 million Internet users & 3.1 million

Broad band (Internet is information tool for old, relationship tool for youngsters)

Mobile phones – 250 plus million phones Cyber cafes: India is 250000. Indians world's third biggest online

shoppers: next only to the Turkish and Irish e-shoppers.



Response

Harness technology for missions Blogs, scraps, walls….what not?



Trend 17: Violence in the city School children using guns to settle

disputes Kidnap and killing of teenagers by

friends Road rage “Sudden Provocation”



Response

How can the church respond?



Trend 18: Victim of terrorism Cities are targets for terrorist

attacks Special insurance against terrorist

attack has gained market Islam and Hinduism – religions used

for terrorism – Malegaon blasts Naxalites - terror



Response

Voice for peace and reconciliation



Trend 19: Right wing ideology inroads in city

Saffron Techies: In Bengalure alone, there are 46 IT milans located in different residential areas.

A special door-to-door fundraising drive held in Bengaluru over a month in 2007 reportedly raised Rs. 20 lakh for the Vanavasi Kalyan Kendra, a Sangh organization that deal with tribal welfare activities.

IT milans in Bengalure are working towards a Sanskrit camp that will be held in the month of November 2008 where 2000 are expected.



Response

Encourage Christian professionals to be engaged in their own contexts

Educate, train and provide tools for them to work in their work places



Trend 20: Entertainment, leisure, eating out

Malls, theme parks, restaurants, increased

4 theme parks, 50 lakh visitors: Four theme parks in Chennai are dishing out thrills and spills for action hungry citizens of Chennai who seem to want only more.



Response

Gospel + Entertainment = ? Discipleship + Entertainment =?



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National Urban Transformation Training Urban Trends