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National Statistics Quality Review on International Migration Estimates
Update on taking forward the recommendations of the review
Emma Wright & Giles HorsfieldPopulation and Demography Division
Office for National Statistics
Overview
● Estimates of Total International Migration– Data Sources & Methodology– Trends
● National Statistics Quality Review– Recommendations
● Work and results to date
● Future plans & further information
Estimates of Total International Migration
● ONS produces estimates of Total International Migration (TIM) between the UK and the rest of the world:
● An international migrant is defined as a person who changes his or her country of usual residence for a period of at least a year
● Estimates of both inflows (immigration) and outflows (emigration)
Data Sources & Methodology
● International Passenger Survey (IPS)
– Continuous voluntary sample survey covering principle air, sea & Channel Tunnel routes
– based on intentions– does not cover all migration
● Estimates from IPS are adjusted for:– Switchers (those whose intentions change)– Flows between the UK & Irish Republic (Irish CSO)– Asylum seekers & their dependants (Home Office)
● TIM estimates have been produced since 1991 - earlier estimates were derived from the IPS only.
Trends in Total International MigrationT
hous
ands
of
mig
rant
s
Net gain
Net loss
Net gain
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Inf low Outflow
National Statistics Quality Review
● National Statistics Quality Review on international migration, commissioned before 2001 Census results were released
● Joint ONS and HO review
● Review Board– representatives from ONS, HO, OGDs, academia
● Aim of the review“ to make recommendations for continuation of, and changes to,
the current data, methods and outputs of UK international migration statistics ”
Review Recommendations
● Final Report published September 2003
● Main recommendations– Development of better estimates of total migration flows
– Use of existing survey and admin data sources for UK geographical distribution of migration
– Development of survey and admin sources on persons subject to immigration control
– Build need for data on international migration into new admin data sources
● Implementation Plan published January 2004
Work & results to date (1)
International Passenger Survey:
● New questions introduced in Jan 2004 on:– intended versus actual length of stay– short-term versus long-term migrants
● Further questions piloted for 2005– level of uncertainty on destination in the UK
Work & results to date (2)
● Comparison of IPS/TIM estimates with Census and Labour Force Survey (immigrants):– Census/LFS question on place of usual residence
1 year ago
– National totals
– Age/sex comparisons
– Regional comparisons
International migration to the UK
Year to April/Spring 2001: LFS, IPS, Census; calendar year 2001: TIM
International Passenger Survey
Total International Migration
Census Labour Force Survey
380.8 479.6 381.3 297.7
Age distribution of in-migrants to England and Wales in the IPS and the 2001 Census: persons
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90+
Age (years)
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f In
flo
w
Census IPS
Year to April 2001
Proportion of UK migrant inflows by region
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40
North East
North West
Yorkshire & Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
Eastern
London
South East
South West
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
IPS LFS CENSUS
Year to April/Spring 2001
London: proportion of total UK in-migration, 1994-2002
LFS year to Spring; IPS and TIM previous calendar years
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Proportion of Uk inflow
LFS TIM IPS
Scotland: proportion of total UK in-migration, 1994-2002
LFS year to Spring; IPS and TIM previous calendar years
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Proportion of UK inflow
LFS TIM IPS
Work & results to date (3)
● Comparison of IPS/TIM estimates with NHS register sources (immigrants and emigrants):– persons registering (de-registering) with the NHS
whose previous (next) place of usual residence is overseas
– regional comparisons
– potential for local authority breakdowns
International migration to/from England and Wales, 2002
Totals (thousands)
National Health Service Central Register
International Passenger Survey
Total International Migration
In-migration 589.8 365.6 485.8
Out-migration 70.6 276.1 323.7
Proportional England and Wales migrant inflows: TIM and IPS compared to NHSCR, 2002
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45
Wales
North East
North West
Yorkshire and the Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
East
London
South East
South West
TIM NHSCR IPS
Proportional England and Wales migrant outflows: TIM and IPS compared to NHSCR, 2002
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45
Wales
North East
North West
Yorkshire and the Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
East
London
South East
South West
TIM NHSCR IPS
Work & results to date (4)
● Comparison of IPS/TIM emigrant estimates with receiving country immigrant statistics:– Difficulty in making such comparisons is well
documented
– Comparisons will focus first on EU 15, Australia, New Zealand, USA, Canada, South Africa
– So far, 13 of these 20 countries, have agreed to take part in the study
Work & results to date (5)
● Development of new data sources - requirements for migration statistics fed into:
– 2011 Census
– Continuous Population Survey
– Citizen’s Information Project
Home Office research
● Improved combining of IPS and HO data - investigation underway of coverage of groups subject to immigration control in IPS - asylum seekers, visitor switchers
● Comparison of statistics on persons subject to immigration control and landing card data with IPS data on non-EU immigrants
● Research into estimating unauthorised migrant stocks and flows
● Development of longitudinal survey of immigrants
● Feeding migration statistics requirements into development of enhanced arrival and departure recording systems and ID cards
Future Plans
● Research work on IPS - non-response, emigration filter shifts, new questions, etc
● Further work on use of LFS and NHSCR data to aid distribution of immigrants geographically
● Further comparisons of emigrant estimates with overseas immigrant estimates
● Investigation of administrative sources (e.g. DWP, DVLA)
● Research into methods for combining data sources (ONS Methods Group)
Further information
● Quality review report and Implementation Plan available on National Statistics website:http://www.statistics.gov.uk/methods_quality/
quality_review/population.asp
● Annual Reference Volumehttp://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/
theme_population/MN_no_29_v3.pdf
● Any further queries:[email protected]@ons.gov.uk
