National Security and Climate Change

8/13/2019 National Security and Climate Change

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TIONALSECURITYAND

CLIMATE

CHANGE

www.AmericanSecurityProject.org 1100 New York Avenue, NW Suite 710W Washington, DC

Climate Change & National Securitywww.NationalSecurityandClimateChange.org

Te climate we live in influences every aspect of everyday life what you eat,

where you live, how you make your living. Changes to that climate will have adirect impact on every one of us.

At home, extreme weather presents a direct risk to U.S. homeland security bythreatening energy, infrastructure, food production, and human lives. Aroundthe world, climate change will affect how American forces interact with alliesand enemies.

It will increase the demands on U.S. military personnel: we will see more

humanitarian interventions, more peacekeeping, and there will be moreconflicts to be drawn into.

Resources spent on protecting U.S. interests at home and around the worldfrom the threats of climate change are resources we cannot spend on otherurgent needs, whether military or civilian.

Climate change does not directly cause conict, but it can add to the challenges of

global instability, hunger, poverty, and conict. Food and water shortages, pandemic

disease, disputes over refugees and resources, more severe natural disasters all

place additional burdens on economies, societies and institutions around the world.

Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, November 2013
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AMERICAN SECURITY PROJECT

Climate Change is Real

Te Earth is Warming: the temperature record isindisputable.

In the 20thCentury, global temperatures in-creased by 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit.

Te warmest decade on record was the 2000s,with each of the previous three decades warmerthan the decade before.

Variability and Uncertainty are features of theClimate System.

Warming will not have the same effects aroundthe world

Te effects of warming are not easily predictablein the short-term

Te burning of fossil fuelsis responsible for mostwarming

CO2in the atmosphere has increased 40% since

the industrial revolution

Te science linking carbon emissions to the in-crease in temperature is definitive.

Over 97% of climate scientists agree with thesebasic facts

Climate Change harms nationalsecurity

Climate change will threaten the security of theAmerican Homeland.

Extreme weather including storms, droughts,

floods, or heat waves will harm infrastructureand the livelihoods of American citizens.

Americas economy is threatened because energyand agriculture the base of so much else areat risk

Climate Changewill place more demands for U.Smilitary interventionaround the world.

Food, water, and energy security are in danger ialready unstable regions.

It is already causing migration and clashes overresources.

While a changing climate change may not di-rectly cause interstate war, it will influence manof the underlying insecurities that make conflicmore likely.

As a global superpower with military forces deployearound the world, the U.S. military will be calledto intervene in new conflicts, resource wars,humanitarian disasters, and in support of allies infailing states.


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Te Earths Climate is Changing

Te Earth is warming at a faster rate than everbefore and humans have played a major role inthe change.

Over the past century, the average mean globaltemperature has risen about 1.4F (0.8C) andis projected to rise at least another 2-11F (1.1-6.4C) in the next century.

Te rising temperatures are directly linked toman-made emissions of greenhouse gases likeCarbon Dioxide.

Arguments about whether climate change is real are

political in nature, not scientific. More than 97% ofall climate scientists agree with these basic facts.

The Earth is Warming and CO2is t

As glaciers melt and shrink at a

faster rate, water supplies have

been diminishing in parts of Asia.

Rising sea levels could lead to a

mass migration and displacementsimilar to what we have seen in

Pakistans ood. And climate

shifts could drastically reduce

the arable land needed to feed

a burgeoning population as we

have seen in parts of Africa.

Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman

of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, October

2010


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Treats of Climate Change to the Homeland

Treats to the Economy, Infrastructure, and Human lives

Climate change will harm the U.S. economy through the disruption of energy infrastructure, both in the

Gulf of Mexico from extreme storms and power plants across the nation due to droughts affecting neededwater supplies.

50% of the U.S. population lives in the 17% of U.S. land area in coast counties. Coastal flooding from stormand rising seas may cause trillions of dollars of damage to homes, businesses and military bases, leaving thousands homeless.

Treats to Agriculture

Warming in the U.S. is neither moderate nor helpful to agriculture.

Te U.S. is the worlds largest producer of corn in the world, supplying much of the world with grains forlivestock and food. Increased weather uncertainty will cause unpredictable food price spikes.

Treats to Human Health

Heat waves decrease air quality in cities. Tis is especially harmful to children, older adults, and those withasthma and other chronic lung diseases. More pollutants in the air cause an array of health problems, whichcontribute to thousands of deaths and billions in healthcare costs.

Te Military Will be Called to Respond

Active Duty Marines and sailors with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit deployed aboard the USS Wasp iNew York harbor to assist in response to Superstorm Sandy in November, 2012.

At its peak the Operation Sandy Force had almost 5,000 troops committed, including more than 600 activeduty Marines, Soldiers and Sailors.

More than 20 military bases are directly at risk from sea level rise and coastal flooding. Even more are at riskfrom extreme weather. Te Department of Defense is assessing coastal and desert installations to help ensurethey will be resilient to the effects of climate change.

The U.S. national security community, including

leaders from the military, homeland security, and

intelligence, understand that climate change is

a national security threat Theyre not talking

about whether or not it is occurring it is.

Tom Ridge, Former Secretary of Homeland Security,

Feb 2013


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Climate Treats Around the World

Sub Saharan Africa

Extreme droughts and food scarcity from climate change will, and already are, putting pressure on

fragile states in Africa. For Example, the recent conflict in Mali was partly induced by droughts and decreased agricultural

productivity. Tis was exacerbated by the inability of the government to address these issues.

South Asia

Just a 1 foot rise in sea level within the range of predictions for the next 30 years - will result in aloss of more than 10% of Bangladeshs territory, forcing some 5.5 million people to relocate.

Meanwhile, India has built a 210 mile border fence to keep out migrants.

Te Middle East

A five year drought, unparalleled in both length and severity, preceded the Syrian civil war. Tis drought caused an unprecedented mass migration of 1.5 million people from rural areas to

urban centers making an already restive population more likely to revolt.

East Asia and the Pacific

Soon, 9 out of 10 of the worlds most populous cities will be in Asia, including low-lying river deltascities like Bangkok, Shanghai, Manila and Ho Chi Minh City.

Extreme weather events, when combined with rising sea levels, could displace millions and causemassive disruptions to the global economy because of impacts on international trade. Te ibetan plateau is warming faster than anywhere on earth, melting the glaciers that provide

seasonal flow from the rivers of Himalayas to more than 2 billion people across Asia.

Extreme weather will increasingly disrupt

food and energy markets, exacerbating state

weakness, forcing human migrations, andtriggering riots, civil disobedience, and vandalism.

James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence,

January 2014


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Te U.S. Military is Planning for Global TreatEnsuring Resilience to Climate Change

Te DoD is assessing coastal and desert installations to help ensure they will be resilient to the effects of cli-mate change.

New microgrid investments on bases will ensure that military bases can operate in order to meet mission re-quirements, even if the surrounding community is without power.

Deploying in Support of Disaster Response

Over 13,000 soldiers, sailors, Marines, and airmen deployed across the Philippines in response to yphoonHaiyan. A direct hit by a yphoon of similar size to Haiyan on a major city like Shanghai, Ho Chi Minh Cior Manila would have been an even greater humanitarian disaster.

Studying Potential Treats

Te military is studying how climate change interacts with other threats like sectarianism, population densitpolitical instability, and other threats in Asia and Africa at a local level so that aid and direct assistance canpre-empt the emergence of conflict.

Working With Allies

Virtually every major exercise in the Pacific Commands area of operations over the past two years has included cooperative disaster response with regional and allied forces.


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Te American Security Project (ASP) is a nonpartisanorganization created to educate the American public and the

world about the changing nature of national security in the 21stCentury.

Gone are the days when a nations security could be measuredby bombers and battleships. Security in this new era requiresharnessing all of Americas strengths: the force of our diplomacy;the might of our military; the vigor and competitiveness of oureconomy; and the power of our ideals.

We believe that America must lead in the pursuit of our commongoals and shared security. We must confront internationalchallenges with our partners and with all the tools at our disposaland address emerging problems before they become security

crises. And to do this we must forge a bipartisan consensus hereat home.

ASP brings together prominent American business leaders,former members of Congress, retired military flag officers,and prominent former government officials. ASP conductsresearch on a broad range of issues and engages and empowersthe American public by taking its findings directly to them viaevents, traditional & new media, meetings, and publications.

We live in a time when the threats to our security are as complex

and diverse as terrorism, nuclear proliferation, climate change,energy challenges, and our economic wellbeing. Partisanbickering and age old solutions simply wont solve our problems.

America and the world - needs an honest dialogue aboutsecurity that is as robust as it is realistic.

ASP exists to promote that dialogue, to forge that consensus, andto spur constructive action so that America meets the challengesto its security while seizing the opportunities that abound.

www.americansecurityproject.org
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National Security and Climate Change