Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
National healthcare expenditures are projected to equal
$5 trillion by 2022
2.2 2.3 2.6 2.8
3.1 3.5
3.9
4.4
5.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2006 2010 2014* 2018* 2022*
US$ trillions
Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. * Projected.
2010 Total = US$ 887 billion 2020 Total = US$ 1.5 trillion
Arthritis $225
Asthma $55
Cancer $273
Cardio-vascular Disease
$611
Diabetes $244
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Spending on top 6 chronic diseases will grow over 70% by 2020
Arthritis $133
Asthma $34
Cancer $155
Cardio-vascular Disease
$351
Diabetes $141
Depression $72
Depression $118
U.S. aging population is growing fast
12.5 12.7 12.4 12.4 13.1 14.8
16.8 18.8
20.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Percent 65+
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Moody’s Analytics.
Rising U.S. adult obesity rates
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
13.3 14.6 15.1
23.3
31.1 34.1
35.7
0
10
20
30
40
1960-1962 1971-1974 1976-1980 1988-1994 1999-2002 2003-2006 2009-2012
Percent obese
Percent of current adult smokers has decreased dramatically Percent of adults that are current smokers in the U.S.
42.4
37.4 33.2
30.1
25.5 24.7 23.5 20.9 19.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
1965 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2005 2010
Percent
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Breakdown of U.S. annual per capita health spending by
category of care
Pharmaceuticals and medical goods
Hospitals and nursing homes
Public health and administration
Ambulatory health care
Sources: OECD, PBS.
$2,852
$1,105
$3,097
$856
Total expenditure on health Percentage of the GDP in select OECD countries
17.7
11.6 11.3 11.2 9.5 9.4
7.4
0
4
8
12
16
20
United States France Germany Canada OECDAverage
UnitedKingdom
South Korea
Percent of GDP
Source: OECD.
Total expenditures on health Per capita in select OECD countries
8,508
4,522 4,495 4,118 3,469 3,406
2,199
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
UnitedStates
Canada Germany France OECDaverage
UnitedKingdom
South Korea
US$
Source: OECD.
U.S. spends more for all categories of care Health spending per capita in select OECD countries
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
United States Canada Germany France
Hospitals/nursinghomes
Ambulatory healthcare
Pharmaceuticals andmedical goods
Public health andadministration
US$
Sources: OECD, PBS.
Where does the U.S. spend more than other countries?
Sources: OECD, PBS.
U.S. rank compared to other OECD countries U.S. OECD average
MRI units per million population
2 31.6 12.5
MRI exams per 1,000population
2 97.7 46.3
Tonsillectomy per 100,000 population
1 254.4 130.1
Coronary bypass per 100,000 population
3 79.0 47.3
Knee replacements per 100,000 population
1 226.0 121.6
Caesarean sections per 100 live births
6 32.9 26.1
U.S. chronic disease management needs improvement Asthma hospital admissions per 100,000 people in select OECD countries
15.7 30.8
43.4 51.8
73.7
120.6
0
40
80
120
160
Canada Germany France OECD average UnitedKingdom
United States
Number per 100,000 people
Sources: OECD, PBS.
U.S. tops the OECD in percent of overweight adults Percent of overweight or obese adults in select OECD countries
56.1
42.9
42.9
41.6
36.1
17.0
0 20 40 60 80
Source: OECD.
70.3
60.1
58.1
54.7
49.9
29.4
020406080
South Korea
France
OECD average
Canada
Germany
United States
Males Females
Percent Percent
Over one third of U.S. children are overweight Percent of overweight or obese children in select OECD countries
35.9
26.6
26.1
21.4
17.6
14.9
0 10 20 30 40
Sources: OECD, PBS, International Association for the Study of Obesity.
35.0
22.7
28.9
22.9
22.6
13.1
010203040
France
Germany
OECD average
Canada
United Kingdom
United States
Males Females
Percent Percent
Healthcare projected to represent a third of job growth by 2022 New jobs in 1,000s
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Personal care aides
Home health aides
Medical secretaries
Physical therapists
Health specialties teachers
Dental hygienists
Registered nurse practitioners
Physician assistants
Physical therapy assistants
Behavioral counselors
Count, thousands
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Growth of patient-centered medical homes Number of recognized sites and clinicians in thousands
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Clinicians
Sites
Count, thousands
Source: National Committee for Quality Assurance.
Increasing prevalence of accountable care organizations (ACOs) By sponsor type
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012, Q2 2012, Q3 2012, Q4 2013, Q1 2013, Q2 2013, Q3 2013, Q4
Other
Insurer
Hospitalsystem
Physiciangroup
Count
Source: Health Affairs.
Greater access to care with connected health and telemedicine
Telemonitoring (weight, BP, heart rate, pulse oximetry)
Time- and place-independent access to specialty physicians
eReferral to reduce wait times for specialties
Tele-ICU intensivist coverage over more intensive care unit beds
Greater medication regime adherence
Source: Health Affairs.
Free smartphone apps for medication adherence
Source: Tennessean.
App Feature(s)
Care4Today Monitor medication use of loved ones. Donate to charity when taken on time.
Med Helper Export results to doctors, nurses and caregivers.
MedCoach Connect to your pharmacy to order refills.
MediSafe Supports English and non-English languages.
Pill Monitor
Email a log of prescriptions taken.
Pill Reminder
Set up accounts for multiple family members through www.drugs.com.
RxmindMe Export prescription information through Walgreens.
Healthcare providers in the future
Projected physician shortage:
2012: 950k practicing physicians
2020: 90k more providers needed
(1/2 primary care)
2025: 130k more providers needed
(1/2 primary care)
Source: Health Affairs.
Medicare and Medicaid projected to cost $1.2 trillion less than
under earlier projections
When the cost curve bent
Source: New England Journal of Medicine.
Average annual difference between growth in real GDP per capita and
growth in real health expenditures per capita, 1965-2012
3.1 3.1
2.1
3.6
2.8 3.1
0.0
3.2
2.2
0.0 0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1965 -1969
1970 -1974
1975 -1979
1980 -1984
1985 -1989
1990 -1994
1995 -1999
2000 -2004
2005 -2009
2010 -2012
Percentage points
WOO-
HOO!!
Whoops…
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, National Health Expenditure Accounts, CEA calculations.
Note: Health expenditures per capita are deflated by the GDP price index
Acute care hospital readmission rates 2007-2012
Source: Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of Enterprise Management.
What’s “hot”
Who is paying?
PROVIDER PAYER PHARMA EMPLOYER CONSUMER
Solutions must be compelling enough for stakeholders to buy on recurring basis -Consumers are not conditioned to pay for healthcare solutions
Process innovation is a key change agent
$765 billion annually wasted in the healthcare system --Technology-enabled solutions and outsourced services are key enablers
Source: OECD, Institute of Medicine.
Skyrocketing cost of cancer drugs
Source: Peter Bach, MD, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center .
Automated hovering
