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PREDICTIVE SERVICES
12/2/2021
NATIONAL FUELS &
FIRE DANGER BRIEFING
Fire Weather Advisories12/2/2021Today
Tomorrow
Sources: NWS; Storm Prediction Center
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Significant Fire Potential Outlooks Drought OutlooksLink Link
Fuels &
Fire Behavior
Advisories
12-02-2021
Source: NICC, GACCs Link
No active advisories at this time
100-Hr Fuel Moisture
Source: Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS).
Link
Larger dead woody fuels improved recently
in FL but are expected to dry again rapidly
over the next several days. Elsewhere in SA,
fuels have continued to dry throughout the
Atlantic Coastal Plain and inland areas. Also,
dry fuels remain a concern for Southern
Plains & W TX.
Woody fuels are critically dry in parts of OSC
and the Desert Southwest. In SC08 (PSA
that includes the LA Basin & adjacent coast),
100-hr fuel moisture is currently the driest it’s
been all year.
12/2/2021
2 Weeks Ago
Note: While most parts of Great Plains & Midwest were abnormally dry in November, the “hot spots” shown
here centered on those 2 RAWS in Iowa may be due to bad sensor/data problems that resulted in erroneously
low calculated 100-hr fuel moisture values.
1000-Hr Fuel Moisture
Source: Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS).
Link
While lagging behind 100-hr, 1000-hr fuel
moisture reflects the same general trend
over the past few weeks, where drying has
occurred throughout most of the South, east
of the Rockies, Southern Plains, Desert
Southwest, & Southern CA.
Currently, there are no widespread areas
where these largest dead woody fuels are
critically dry, but further drying is expected
for OSC. In SA (perhaps most notably in
FL), these drying heavy fuels will begin to
influence fire behavior and resistance to
control.
1 Month Ago
12/2/2021
Note: The “hot spot” shown here in W Iowa may be due to bad sensor/data problems that resulted in
erroneously low calculated 1000-hr fuel moisture values.
12/2/2021Energy Release Component (Percentiles, Model G)
Source: Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS).
Link
Dry conditions, plus abnormally
warm weather in areas east of The
Divide, have contributed to elevated
ERCs throughout the mid-section of
CONUS. While not particularly
warm, much of the Southeastern
US has remained dry, with the
commensurate increase in fall fire
activity (finally).
ERCs in some of OSC’s PSAs are
above the 97th percentile, the
highest levels seen all year.
2 Weeks Ago
Note: Fire danger exceeds normal seasonal levels in parts of the Plains & Midwest; however, it may be
somewhat overstated here due to bad sensor/data problems that resulted in erroneously low dead fuel
moisture values (and, in turn, too high ERCs) for 2 RAWS in Iowa at the center of those “hot spots”.
Forecasted conditions will remain dry throughout OSC for the near future, so heavy dead fuel moisture and fire danger will not improve and may worsen.
Some PSAs have ERCs that exceed the 90th
(orange) or 97th (red) percentile. Along the southern coast, current ERC levels are the highest they have been all year!
100 Hour Fuel Moisture Energy Release Component (Fuel Model Y)
12/2/2021
Southern California Fire Danger
Large, dead woody fuels are very dry across most of OSC (outside of parts of the Sierra with snow cover), causing above normal ERC levels (yellow below).
• Main threat: Continuing (albeit abating) threat of new wind-driven fires emerging east of
The Divide in MT, extending south/east along the Front Range and into the High Plains.
• SA: Drying fuels, combined with leaf fall (and, in some places, freeze-cured grasses) will
support normal to above normal fall and early winter fire activity in several areas of the
South. Fire danger along the Allegheny Front through the Carolinas will be further elevated
by windy conditions. Potential is increasing again in C/W TX, Southern Plains, & FL.
• NR & RM: Abnormally warm conditions have dried fuels in the foothills and Plains, but the
risk of emerging large fires has been primarily tied to exceptionally strong winds.
• OSC, S GB, & SW: Fire danger in parts of the Desert Southwest, extending west to the S
CA coastal areas is high, but risk is largely dependent on named winds. For some OSC
PSAs, ERC & 100-hr FM are at peak levels for 2021. No improvement in fuels conditions
is expected for the near future.
• Fall and early winter fire danger outlook: Continuing and possibly increasing risk of late
season fires in OSC, SW, & the exposed fuels of the Front Range/Plains of NR & RM.
Fuels & Fire Danger Summary 12/2/2021
9 GEOGRAPHIC AREAS & 10 COORDINATION CENTERS
Alaska Area (AK)California Area (CA)
North Ops (NOps, ONC)South Ops (SOps, OSC)
Eastern Area (EA)Great Basin Area (GB)Northern Rockies Area (NR)Northwest Area (NW)Rocky Mountain Area (RM)Southern Area (SA)Southwest Area (SW)
PARTNERING AGENCIES
Comments or questions?
Please contactSteve Larrabee at
or your local servicing Predictive Services Staff
