National Drought Management Authority

LAMU COUNTY

DROUGHT MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM BULLETIN –

JANUARY 2014

DROUGHT EARLY WARNING STAGE/TRENDS

Seasonal Calendar

LIVELIHOOD

ZONE

WARNING

STAGE

TREND

Fishing and

Harvesting

Alert Worsening

Pastoral Farming Alert Worsening

Mixed Farming

Food/Cash

Alert

Worsening

Mixed Farming

Cash/Food

Alert Worsening

Short rains

harvests

Short dry

spell

(Current)

Long Rains

Planting/Weeding

Pest Control

Spraying

Long rains

harvests

A long dry spell

Land preparation

Short rains

Planting/weeding

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

HINDI

WITU

KIUNGA

MPEKETONI

AMU

FAZA KIZINGITINI

Lamu County Drought Early Warning Status/Trend for January 2014

0 10 20 30 40 5 Kilometers

Key Fishing and Harvesting

Mixed Farming:Cash

Mixed Farming: Food Crop/Livestock

Pastoral

Urban

Disclaimer: The boundaries and designations on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance - by NDMA-LAMU

Alert: Worsening

Alert: Worsening Alert: Worsening

Alert: Worsening

Situation Overview

Dry weather conditions prevailed throughout the month of under review. An average

of 4.5 mm was recorded within the month of January for the whole county. There was

18mm of rainfall recorded for 2 days in Witu division. The rest of the county did not

record any rainfall.

The main source of water during the month was shallow wells accounting for about

41.67% followed by bore holes (33.33%). Natural rivers, lakes and traditional wells

each accounted for 8.33%.

There has been water shortage, especially in the eastern side of the county. Water

trucking is being conducted to Kiunga by Coast Water Services Board in

collaboration with the county government About 2,000 people are benefitting from

this intervention so far. However, this number may increase as the drought

progresses. Island areas such as Faza, Ndau and Kizingitini remain water-stressed.

About 500 households are affected in the three islands, and the situation could get

worse if no intervention takes place. Water levels in shallow wells have reduced;

Volumes of water in earth pans have depleted by almost 70%. The remaining quantity

is expected to last human, livestock and wildlife for about one month in Koreni and

Pangani areas which are situated in Pastoral livelihood zone of Witu ward. Already,

approximately 15,000 heads of cattle and 800 households are affected and will soon

have no water if interventions are not undertaken in the next four weeks.

Grazing distances increased slightly from 2.65 km in December to 2.85 km. This

increase in distance could be attributed to the prevailing dry weather conditions which

necessitate the livestock to seek pastures farther afar.

The pasture and browse in the county have deteriorated both in quality and quantity in

most areas in the county. This could be attributed to overconsumption of pastures that

had regenerated following the short rains by both the in-migrating and resident herds

as well as by wildlife. Late onset and early cessation of the rains combined with the

heat generated by the current hot weather have also contributed to the present poor

state of the pasture and browse conditions.

Pasture and browse is expected to last for a period of one month in Hindi, Bargoni

and Mpeketoni where regeneration occurred following late rains in December,

whereas the whole eastern zone of the county lacks pasture because of failure of the

short rains.

Household watering distances increased from 1.58 km to 2.68 km against a long term

mean of 1.56 Km. Residents have been forced to seek water farther as the shallow

well water levels continue to reduce due to the progressing drought condition.

Average medium-sized bull price for the month of January was Ksh 12,199. This

figure was above the year (2006-2013) long term mean of Ksh.9, 522. The prices

have dipped since December price of Ksh.13, 008 perhaps due to the worsening body

condition as the drought progresses.

Goat prices rose to Ksh. 2,975 up from Ksh 2,899 recorded in December. This price

was higher than the long term average of Ksh.1, 628 experienced around this time of

the year. Goat prices remained relatively stable, perhaps, due to the on-going Maulidi

festivals within the county where a lot of animal slaughter is conducted.

Livestock body condition has continued to deteriorate considerably throughout the

month and could be said to be between fair and poor. This could be attributed to the

CURRENT

diminishing pastures following early cessation of the rains and the reduced quality of

both pasture and browse.

There is an outbreak of Newcastle disease in poultry in Baharini, Mpeketoni division

In- migration of herds from Tana delta to Didewaride has been noted. Herds from

Ijara and Garissa have also migrated into the county.

The average farm gate price of a 90kg bag of maize was KSh 2,857 up from Ksh.

2,830 recorded the previous month. This was way higher than the year (2006- 2013)

long-term average of KSh 2,127. The increase in maize prices could be attributed to

an increase in demand for the commodity as the stocks continue depleting. The crop

in the field has withered in most crop-growing areas as a result of the early cessation

of the rains and the continued dry weather conditions since the rains stopped. The

predicted output by the Ministry of Agriculture in this season is about 8 bags/acre

against a normal season harvest of 18-20 bags/acre

Beans prices also saw an increase from the previous amount of Ksh 7,758 recorded in

December to Ksh 7,851 recorded in January per 90 kg bag during the month of

January. This price is higher than the year 2006-2013 long term average of Ksh.

6,409 and this high cost can be attributed to the high demand for the commodity

versus the low stocks available.

Percentage of children under five years at risk of malnutrition was 3.63% down from

December’s 5.2% out of a total sample of 1440 children. This MUAC average was

lower than the 2006-2013 long term average of 5.01%. This improving trend could be

attributed to the increase in the number herds migrating into the county, which in turn

translates to an increase in milk supply and availability in the county, and Unimix

provided by ICRC recently especially in the fishing LZ areas has further helped

improve the situation.

Average milk production increased insignificantly from 0.81 litres/HH in December

to 0.83 litres/HH in January. This is in comparison with the (2006-2013) long-term

average of 0.77 litres per household is on the higher side.

The major sources of income within the county have not seen any drastic changes

with casual labour accounting for 53%, followed by petty trade at 17%, formal

employment at 10%, while sale of crops, sale of livestock products and remittance

accounted for 5%, 5% and 10% respectively.

The drought warning stage in the county for the month of January was alert with a

worsening trend.

Recommendations to KFSSG

Close monitoring of food stocks both in HHs and markets, close monitoring of food

and livestock prices.

Provision of home-based water treatment chemicals by MoH, Public Health dept and

other partners.

Support vitamin A supplement and deworming programmes in primary schools

within the county.

Support livestock disease surveillance, treatment and vaccination across the county.

Destocking in areas that are badly affected by the drought.

Current Intervention Measures

Food Interventions

ICRC has donated food stuff: Rice, Kunde, cooking fat and unimix to residents in

Kiunga.

Non-Food Interventions

Contingency Planning training by NDMA and line ministries in Mpeketoni and Faza

divisions. There are plans to conduct another training in Kiunga.

Drafting of County Nutrition Action Plan by the nutrition department and key

stakeholders including line ministries and NGOs.

Issuance of scholarships to needy and bright students by co-operative bank following the

recent KCPE examinations.

Vaccination against rabies and Newcastle in Lamu West, particularly in Mpeketoni

division.

Disease surveillance especially rabies by the veterinary department in Faza.

Water trucking in Kiunga division by Coast Water Services Board.

Co-ordination of various stakeholders along the three value chains of cashewnut

production, poultry farming and deep sea fishing by Agriculture Sector Development

Support Programme(ASDSP)

Aqua tab and chlorine powder distribution for water treatment within Amu by public

health department.

Jigger treatment within Amu and parts of Kiunga by public health department.

Technical Group Recommendations

Increase the area of land under hay production so as to buffer the livestock against

drought. Proper storage facilities should be built for hay.

Support water trucking in the eastern parts of the county that are more water-stressed

especially in Kiunga division.

Extend livestock disease surveillance across the county especially now as the county

experiences in-migration of herds from other counties as they move in search of pasture.

Formation of Rapid Response Disaster management committees especially along the

livestock migratory routes into the county where conflict is likely to occur.

Support provision of food supplements

Explore the chances of expanding irrigated crop farming along R. Mangai so at to

improve food security. Already, Kenya Red Cross Society has started an initiative in the

same area covering close to 20 acres.

Completion of the ECD projects at Bahati Njema for the marginalized Wasanye

community.

SMC be formed and trained immediately for the Bahati Njema ECD project to take off.

Introduction of Food for Asset initiative in Kiunga division, Faza, Kizingitini and

Bajumwali areas.

A Hydrological survey be conducted, especially in the eastern part of the county so as to

come up with a lasting solution to the water problem.

Aquatab distribution across the county on a regular basis.

Environmental indicators (Stability)

1.1 Rainfall

Amount of rainfall

The county remained dry for the major part of the month. An average of 4.5 mm was recorded

within the month of January for the whole county. There was 18mm of rainfall recorded for 2

days in Witu division. The rest of the county did not record any rainfall.

n=4

1.2 Condition of Natural Vegetation and Pasture

Quality

The pasture and browse quality in the county has deteriorated considerable over the past

one month. This is attributed to the continued dry weather and heat conditions.

Quantity

The pasture has decreased in quantity as a result of overconsumption by both resident

herds, wildlife and in-migrating herds from Garissa and Tana Delta.

Distance to Grazing Areas

Average grazing distance was 2.85 km, an increase from last month’s distance of 2.65 km. This

distance is more than the year 2008-2013 long-term average of 2.80 km. Fisheries livelihood

zone recorded a distance of 3 km, pastoral livelihood zone 3.7 Km, Mixed farming cash/food

crop livelihood zone 1.8 km while the mixed farming food/cash crop livelihood zone recorded

2.9 km. Water pans are currently at 70% depletion level. Some pastoralists have had to seek

water further to so as to avoid conflict over the scarce resource.

Lamu County Grazing distance distribution for year 2013 in Kilometers vs. 2008-13 long

term average

n=360

1.3 Water Sources and Availability

The main source of water during the month was shallow wells accounting for about

41.67% followed by bore holes (33.33%). Natural rivers, lakes and traditional wells

each accounted for 8.33 %.

These water sources have been replenished considerably after the start of the rains.

1.4 Water distances and Availability

Household watering distances increased from 1.58 km in the previous month to 2.68 km . This

compared with the long term mean of 1.65 Km is higher than usual. This average distance has

increased due to inconsistent rains in all livelihood zones, in addition to the continued dry

conditions. The Fishing and mangrove harvesting livelihood zone had an average distance of 3

km, while the mixed farming food/cash had a mean of 0.9 km and the mixed farming cash/food

zone recorded a distance of 1.8 Km.The pastoral livelihood zone had the highest distance of 5

km.

Lamu County average house hold water distance distribution for 2013 in kilometers vs.

2008-13 long term average.

Distance in km n=360

1.5 Emerging Issues

1.5.1 Insecurity/Conflict

There were cases of conflict in Mhamarani between pastoralists and farmers. The pastoralists

have driven some of their herds into the farming areas.

1.5.2 Migration

There has been migration of herds from both ends of the county. Some have come in from

Garissa County in the northern part of the county while others have come in from Tana Delta

into areas such as Didewaride in Witu division.

1.6 Implications on Food Security

Both pasture quality and quantity have deteriorated considerably in the past one month.

This is as a result of the prevailing dry conditions that continue to be witnessed in most

parts of the county. This has seen the body condition of livestock deteriorate and can be

said to be between fair and poor. The satellite herds within the county have led to an

increase in milk production. This has had a negative impact on food security.

The animals invading crop-growing areas will also have a negative impact on food

security by reducing the harvests.

2. Rural indicators (Food Availability)

2.1 Livestock Production

2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition

The livestock body condition for cattle and goats lies between fair and poor.

2.1.1 Livestock Diseases

There are suspected cases of rabies in livestock and Faza. The veterinary department is carrying

out surveillance.

There is an outbreak of Newcastle disease in Mpeketoni division. The veterinary department is

currently carrying out vaccinations.

2.1.2 Milk Production

Milk production increased from 0.81litres per household in December to 0.83 litres in January.

This is higher than the (2006-2012) long-term average of 0.77 litres per household.This increase

in milk production could be as a result of increase in the quantity of milk within the county as a

result of in-migration of herds from neighbouring counties. The increase in milk production

could have attributed to the reduction in cases of children at risk of malnutrition. The livestock

livelihood zone had an average production of 2.31 l/HH, whereas the mixed farming food/cash

crop livelihood zone had a mean of 0.59 l/HH with the mixed farming cash/food having an

average of 0.41 l/HH. While the fisheries livelihood zone had an average of 0.34 l/HH.

Graph of milk production is shown in the figure below.

2.1.3 Crop Production

Crops that were planted in the crop-growing areas have withered as a result of the late onset and

early cessation of the rains and the continued dry weather conditions since the rains stopped.

2.1.3 Implications on Food Security

The expected output is this time has gone down to 8 bags/acre while with normal rains,18-20

bags/acre can be harvested.

3. Access to Food

3.1 Livestock Marketing

3.1.1 Cattle Prices

Average price was Kshs 12,199 down from 13,009 the previous month. Pastoral farming

livelihood zone had a price of Kshs 11,930 and mixed farming cash crops/food crop recorded no

sales while mixed farming food crops/cash crops had an average price of 12,667.Fisheries

livelihood zone recorded an average price of Kshs 12,000 for sales during the month of January.

The 2006-2013 long-term average price of cattle is 9,522. The current price is above this long

term mean.

HINDI

WITU

KIUNGA

MPEKETONI

AMU

FAZA KIZINGITINI

Cattle price distribution for the Month of January Vs December

±

0 10 20 30 40 5 Kilometers

Key Fishing and Harvesting

Mixed Farming: Cash

Mixed Farming: Food Crop/Livestock

Pastoral

Urban

Disclaimer: The boundaries and designations on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance - by NDMA-LAMU

Kshs 11,930 down from Ksh 12,328

Ksh 12000 down from 15,000

Ksh 12,667

Lamu County Cattle prices 2014 Vs Long term Average 2006-2013

.

HINDI

WITU

KIUNGA

MPEKETONI

AMU

FAZA KIZINGITINI

Goat price distribution for the Month of January Vs December

±

0 10 20 30 40 5 Kilometers

Key

Fishing and Harvesting

Mixed Farming : Cash

Mixed Farming: Food Crop/Livestock Mixed Farming: Food Crop/Livestock

Pastoral

Urban

Disclaimer: The boundaries and designations on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance - by NDMA-LAMU

Ksh 3600 down from Ksh 3,812

Ksh 2,975 up from Ksh 2,425

Ksh 1,900 down from Ksh 2,000

Ksh 3,425 up from Ksh 3,360

3.1.2 Goat Prices

Goat prices increased from Ksh. 2,899 recorded the previous month to 2,975 in January.

Fisheries livelihood zone had a price of Kshs. 3,600, pastoral farming livelihood zone Ksh 1,

900, mixed farming cash/food LZ price was Ksh 3,425 while mixed farming food/cash was Ksh

2,975 during the reporting month. The 2006-2013 long-term average for the month was 1,718

which is lower than the current price for this month.

Lamu County goat prices 2014 Vs (2006-2013) long-term average

n=360

Goat price distribution is shown in map below.

HINDI

WITU

KIUNGA

MPEKETONI

AMU

FAZA KIZINGITINI

Maize price distribution for the Month of January Vs December

±

0 10 20 30 40 5 Kilometers

Key Fishing and Harvesting

Mixed Farming: Cash/food

Mixed Farming: Food/Cash

Pastoral

Urban

Disclaimer: The boundaries and designations on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance - by NDMA-LAMU

No sales recorded.

Ksh 2,790 up from Ksh 2,556

No sales recorded.

Ksh 2,925 down from Ksh 3,105

3.1.3 Maize

Average price of a 90 kg bag of maize was Ksh 2,858 up from 2,831 the previous month. Mixed

farming cash/food livelihood zone recorded a price of Ksh 2,925 down from Ksh 3,105 the

previous month, while mixed farming food /cash recorded a price of Ksh 2,790 up from Ksh

2,556. No sales were recorded in the other livelihood zones. The average price was above the

year (2006-2013) long term-average of Ksh 2,127.

Lamu County Maize prices 2014 Vs Long term Average 2006-2013

n=360

3.1.4 Beans

A 90 kg bag of beans retailed at an average of Ksh 7,851 during the month of January up from

7,758 in the previous month. The pastoral farming LZ price stood at Ksh 8,550, Mixed farming

cash/food livelihood zone recorded a price of ksh 7,200 while mixed farming food /cash

livelihood zone had a price of Ksh 7, 803. The year (2006-2013) long-term average price of

beans is Ksh 6,409 The current price is way above the long-term average.

Lamu County Beans 2014 Vs Long Term Average 2006-2013

Average price of posho for January across the county was Kshs 40(grade 2) and Ksh 50

for(grade 1) while that of sifted maize meal was ksh 60 for one kg across the county.

3.1.6 Sorghum

Sorghum retailed at a market price of between Kshs 95.

3.1.7 Cow Peas

Cow peas retailed at an average price of Ksh. 60 within the county.

3.1.9 Green Grams

The average price/kg for green grams was Ksh. 50.

3.2.0 Millet

Millet retailed at an average price of ksh 100 during the month.

3.2.1 Rice

Rice retailed at a price of 86 during the month of January.

4.0 Income

The main source of income was casual labour accounting for 53% of income sources, followed

by petty trade at 17%. Formal employment and remittance came third at 10%. The rest of the

income sources were sale of crops and livestock at 5% each. Their percentages are shown in the

chart below.

4.1. Crops

Income from crops accounted for 5% of total household income .This did not change

from the previous month’s figure.

That was normal at that time of the year.

The highest rate was recorded in the mixed farming: food crops/cash crop livelihood zone

while the least was recorded in fishing and pastoral farming livelihood zones

4.2 Livestock

Sale of livestock products accounted for 5% of total household income. This figure

remained constant from the previous month.

4.3 Other Income

Casual labour was main source of income during the month at 53%, same as last month.

Petty trading accounted for 17% of the total household income down slightly from last

month’s recorded figure at 18%.

Formal employment accounted for 10% of all household income.

4.4 Implication on Food Security

Casual labour is the main source of income for more than half the county. With the

current average wage rate of Ksh. 262 combined with the high food prices, the food

security situation seems to be getting worse.

5.0 Utilization

5.1 Nutritional Status.

The percentage of children in the County with mid upper arm circumference levels of less

than 135 mm was 3.63% down from last month’s figure of 5.2%. This is lower than the

year 2006-13 long term average of 5.01 %.

The pastoral livelihood zone recorded 6.4% down from 6.8% reported previously

,Fisheries LZ recorded 3.4% a marked improvement from 8.9% and mixed farming

food/cash LZ had 4.1% up from 3.9 % recorded previously and mixed farming cash/food

LZ had 0.6% down from 1.2 % recorded in December.

Graph of MUAC<135 mm % Year 2014 Vs 2006-2013 Long Term Average

HINDI

WITU

KIUNGA

MPEKETONI

AMU

FAZA KIZINGITINI

0 10 20 30 40 5 Kilometers

Key

Fishing and Harvesting

Mixed Farming: cash crop

Mixed Farming: Food Crop//cash crop Pastoral

Urban

Disclaimer: The boundaries and designations on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance - by NDMA-LAMU

3.4% down from 8.9%

4.1% up from 3.9%

6.4 down from 6.8%

0.6 % down from 1.2%

5.2 Coping Strategy Index

The average coping strategy Index was 1.6 down from 2.13 recorded last month and also higher

than long-term average of 1.30. FisheriesL.Z had the highest with 2.9, pastoral farming

livelihood zone had 0.7, and mixed cash/food 1.9 while mixed farming food/cash had a coping

strategy index of 0.9.

n=360

HINDI

WITU

KIUNGA

MPEKETONI

AMU

FAZA KIZINGITINI

Coping strategies index distribution for the Month of January Vs December

±

0 10 20 30 40 5 Kilometers

Key

Fishing and Harvesting Mixed Farming:Cash

Mixed Farming: Food Crop/Livestock Pastoral Urban

Disclaimer: The boundaries and designations on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance - by NDMA-LAMU

2.9 down from 5.0

0.9 No change 0.7 no change

1.9 up from 1.8

5.3 Warning Phase

Water scarcity is expected to be more widespread due to late onset and early cessation of

rainfall in most parts of the county. The impact of water scarcity has already been felt in

crop production as the crops have withered in some areas in the mixed-farming livelihood

zone such as Witu and Mpeketoni. This may impact negatively on food security since the

yield may be lower than expected.

Already, there are herds migrating into the county from Tana Delta, Ijara and Garissa.

This influx of livestock is leading to conflict over resources as there are reported cases of

skirmishes between pastoralists and crop farmers. Conflict rapid-response measures

should be put in place in hot-spot areas such as Didewaride, Bodhei and areas along the

entry points into the county. There is also urgent need for disease surveillance along

migratory routes, and if need be, vaccination and treatment should be readily available.

To make this possible, all key stakeholders including line government ministries, FBOs

and NGOs must be willing to co-ordinate.

Relief food may be required for about 20,000 people in the county. Water trucking is

expected soon. More water storage tanks and water bowsers are required as the county

has only one serviceable water bowser.

The county is on alert and the trend is worsening.