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National Council of Housing Market Analysts
Annual MeetingSeptember 24-25, 2018 Denver, CO
Tyler Borowy
Prior & Associates
NCHMA Annual Meeting
Keystone, Colorado
• 75 miles west of Denver• Pop: ~1,050• Area: 40.6 Sq. Miles• Density: 25.9• Households: 475• Renters: 238• Vail Resort Ski Area
Denver
Vail & Grand Junction
NCHMA Annual Meeting
Population
NCHMA Annual Meeting
Households
SUMMIT COUNTY
NCHMA Annual Meeting
Build-Out
NCHMA Annual Meeting
Build-Out
• As of December 2016, 30,220 units of 42,887 units allowed per zoning have been built in Summit County.
• Build-out is 70.46%.
• Planning staff estimate potential of 77.45% (39,020 units).
• Snake River Basin (Keystone, Dillon and Montezuma) is about 72% built-out.
• Staff estimate that at current permit levels, county will be built out in 20 years.
NCHMA Annual Meeting
• Population: 29,269• Employment: 20,685• Unemployment Rate: 2.1%• Unemployment Rate: 1.5% - 1.7%
during ski season• Unemployment Rate: 2.6% May 2018
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT, SUMMIT COUNTY, 2013-2018
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Summit County
NCHMA Annual Meeting
Towns Pop.Breckenridge 4,732Silverthorne 4,206Frisco 2,909Dillon 992Blue River 735Montezuma 75CDPsKeystone 1,048Copper Mountain 212Heeney 20Balance of County 14,340Summit County 29,269Source: ACS 2012:2016 5-Year Estimates
Summit County
NCHMA Annual Meeting
Aspen/ Snowmass
Beaver Creek Vail
Copper Mountain
Breckenridge Keystone & A-Basin Winter ParkLoveland
NCHMA Annual Meeting
NCHMA Annual Meeting
~ 42 Miles~ 60 Minutes
~ 38 Miles~ 50 Minutes
~ 22 Miles~ 35 Minutes
~ 48 Miles~ 60 Minutes
NCHMA Annual Meeting
NCHMA Annual Meeting
NCHMA Annual Meeting
NCHMA Annual Meeting
Rents
Market-Rate• Class C multifamily• Condos for rent• At least $2.00/SF• Very basic amenities• Possibly outdated and inefficient• Fully occupied
LIHTC• At maximums• Often superior amenities• Significant advantage over market• Fully occupied w/ waitlists
Affordable (80% to 120% AMI)• Several employee housing options• Master leases• Fully occupied
NCHMA Annual Meeting
Dillon, Jan. 2017
Rents
NCHMA Annual Meeting
1BR: $1,435 x 3 = $4,305 x 12 months = $51,6602BR: $1,578 x 3 = $4,734 x 12 months = $56,808
Minimum Wages:• Colorado: $10.20/hr.• Aspen Ski Co Minimum Wage: $13.50/hr.• Vail Resorts: $12.25/hr.
Annual Salary:• Vail Resorts: $12.25/hr = $25,480/year
Annual Salaries:• $15.00/hr. = $31,200/year• $17.50/hr. = $36,400/year• $20.00/hr. = $41,600/year
Typical Annual Salaries:• Education, Training, Library = $46,607/year• Protective Service = $42,456• Healthcare Support = $31,755• Sales & Related = $30,883• Food Preparation & Serving = $20,849
Rents
NCHMA Annual Meeting
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
Summit Lake Eagle Park ClearCreek
Pitkin
$849,000
$344,000
$682,000
$387,000 $369,000
$1,990,000
MEDIAN LIST PRICE, AUGUST 2015-2018
2015 2016 2017 2018
Home Value
NCHMA Annual Meeting
Home Value
COST OF HOMEOWNERSHIPMedian 1st Percentile
Sale Price $849,000 $230,000Down Payment $84,900 $23,000Mortgage Amount $764,100 $207,000
Housing Costs Monthly Annual Monthly AnnualMortgage Payment $3,898 $46,781 $1,056 $12,673Property Taxes $708 $8,490 $192 $2,300Homeowner Insurance $283 $3,396 $77 $920Mortgage Insurance $48 $573 $13 $155Total Costs $4,937 $59,240 $1,337 $16,049Required Income $17,631 $211,572 $4,776 $57,316Source: Realtor.com
